Stacocakes Romes Masters Series thread

**Stacocakes** · 04-30-10, 10:44 AM

df's the break to Ferrer. This match is done.Tsonga has given up

**Stacocakes** · 04-30-10, 10:48 AM

It's been mentioned that Ferrer is a smoker.Crazy when you think about how much he runs around all of the time

**EaglesPhan36** · 04-30-10, 10:53 AM

That pretty much sums up why I took Ferrer for my parlay. I think if they had played before and Tsonga had an idea of what to expect, maybe he'd have a better chance. Gotta give Ferrer credit, he has really rediscovered his game on clay after a miserable year last year. He's a guilty pleasure of mine to bet on I think because of his defense. I'd like to see him stay hot onto the hard courts this summer. This is a lightning quick match, just barely at an hour now. Have to give Ferrer the advantage over Verdasco tomorrow. I think I could be comfortable with Ferrer in that one to about -140 or -150. If it opens higher, I'll pass.

**Stacocakes** · 04-30-10, 10:54 AM

Ya I think Ferrer will be a good play tomorrow over Verdasco. This is like a practice match for Ferrer today. Nothing worse then having money on a player that has given up

**tailmypicks** · 04-30-10, 10:55 AM

why would ferrer be the fav v verdasco

**EaglesPhan36** · 04-30-10, 11:12 AM

Sorry, meant that on the dog side of life for Ferrer, not the favorite. Probably be more like +120 though if lucky.

**EaglesPhan36** · 04-30-10, 11:57 AM

Nadal is having to work hard for points on his own serve early. Wawrinka has had it fairly easy on his. All three of Nadal's service games went to deuce. I'm waiting a little to maybe utilize live betting in this match to get some extra money. 3-3 right now. I took a small chunk of the under knowing full well that this would be the one where Nadal didn't dominate.

**MUHerd37** · 04-30-10, 12:46 PM

Nice picking guys. Not sure who I would pick between Ferrer/Verdasco. Verdasco has been on fire. Prices should be interesting.

**EaglesPhan36** · 04-30-10, 03:17 PM

Well I guess I was closer to correct when talking about Ferrer as a favorite. He's -109 at Pinnacle open. Obviously books setting it from his play + Verdasco fatigue factor.

**Stacocakes** · 04-30-10, 05:23 PM

So we have Ferrer currently -115 over Verdasco on Pinnacle. What do you guys think of this? I think this is a good play.Verdasco has got to be exhausted and Ferrer has been playing really good and winning his matches fairly quickly. I think this line is just going to keep rising throughout the night. I am going to take it now.

Play for tomorrow:

Ferrer -115

**EaglesPhan36** · 04-30-10, 05:40 PM

Yeah, 5Dimes is up to -125 at last check, but they opened higher than Pinnacle too. I believe I like this one. Even given Verdasco's tremendous run, if Ferrer can run down balls like usual, I think he can wear Verdasco out. Verdasco's best chance is to serve exceptionally well and get cheap points - but he hasn't gotten a ton of aces this tournament. Gonna stew on this a bit tonight and see if the totals come out before I go to sleep too. I'm guessing Ferrer-Verdasco O/U will reflect a potential 3 setter at 22.5 or better. Nadal-Gulbis, would be shocked if it's higher than 17. Would love the 18 from today for another shot at an under

**tailmypicks** · 05-01-10, 12:09 AM

tough to go against verdasco with his current form........i think i'll pass

**Stacocakes** · 05-01-10, 10:29 AM

Ferrer wins in straight sets

Rafa wins the first set but is down 3-0 in the second set to Gulbis. Very surprised about this. I"m not worried about rafa losing the match though

**tailmypicks** · 05-01-10, 10:48 AM

i think he'll still win in straight sets

**michalis** · 05-01-10, 10:51 AM

too much jinx going on in this forum with all the drooling about how perfect nadal is on clay

Im regretting putting him on my parlay, the odds were crap and now he looks like he could loose

**EaglesPhan36** · 05-01-10, 10:52 AM

I have Gulbis +6.5 as part of a parlay. To win, he's likely going to need to avoid the bagel in the 3rd set it appears. Gotta give Gulbis some credit, he is really playing well on clay right now .. also think Rafa is not in as good a form as his last tournament. His service games have been long grinders where most of them are getting to deuce. He's having to work harder this week. Could just be the effects of taking a week off, this tournament might actually help cheapen up his French future though.

**Stacocakes** · 05-01-10, 10:54 AM

I have bet on Gulbis many times in my life and all I can say is that he continually dissapoints. I wouldn't be surprised if he even blew this set and Rafa won in 2 eventhough Gulbis is up 5-2 now. He's just a player that looks so good at times and then he has flashes where he looks like he is the worst player on tour. He is inconsistant and it's hard to bet on a player like that because you never know which player will show up for the match. Gulbis kinda reminds me of Cilic in that sense.

Rafa is not playing very well today. Gulbis is putting up a good fight here.

**Stacocakes** · 05-01-10, 10:56 AM

Rafa is still -440 on Betfair

**Stacocakes** · 05-01-10, 10:57 AM

Bp gulbis geez

**tailmypicks** · 05-01-10, 10:59 AM

nadal wont be as forgiving as roger if gulbis does his routine final game choke

**EaglesPhan36** · 05-01-10, 11:03 AM

Bad math by me, Gulbis +6.5 is a guaranteed winner now. I'll root Nadal for you now Staco to keep that future alive. GL!

**michalis** · 05-01-10, 11:05 AM

I think this will be the end of nadals 55 match streak in april matches

**Stacocakes** · 05-01-10, 11:05 AM

Thanks Eagles

It's all good.I am not really worried. Had I backed Nadal for this match though I probably would be. What were his odds anyways -2000?

and as I say that 0-15 on Nadals serve

**EaglesPhan36** · 05-01-10, 11:07 AM

This last set could have multiple breaks. Even if Gulbis gets up one, don't doubt he'll give it back. This will be like the 3rd set with Federer I think except you'd think Nadal will have the better nerve on this surface.

**EaglesPhan36** · 05-01-10, 11:08 AM

Yeah Nadal was between -2100 and -2200 at most books I believe.

**Stacocakes** · 05-01-10, 11:10 AM

BP Gulbis

Oh geez. He is playing great

**Stacocakes** · 05-01-10, 11:10 AM

-240 Nadal still

**Stacocakes** · 05-01-10, 11:10 AM

Nice save by Rafa

**michalis** · 05-01-10, 11:11 AM

sorry but nadal looks horrible, he keeps making unforced errors, him doesnt attack the net and keeps to the baseline, no agressiveness or passion to win whatsoever, he doesnt try to win points he waits until gulbis gives them to him

if i didnt know any better id say he has money on gulbis

**Stacocakes** · 05-01-10, 11:13 AM

-480 Nadal now up 1-0

Michalis Nadal hasn't been looking good but I still think he wins this match. Odds clearly dictate that most people feel the same.

Gulbis blew a break chance in the first game and you guys usually know what happens when break chances are blown

**michalis** · 05-01-10, 11:17 AM

i think what we need is a bit of rain and the match to finish tomorrow

whats the weather report like right now

**michalis** · 05-01-10, 11:21 AM

if nadal really had knee problems last week which forced him to withdraw from the barcelona atp i think maybe they are still bothering him, that would explain his persistence to stay stuck on the line and refuse to run to the net

**tailmypicks** · 05-01-10, 11:26 AM

how quickly things change
there were signs in last match when wawa kept it close

**Stacocakes** · 05-01-10, 11:26 AM

I think Nadal just didn't want to play last week.He has looked very good this week in the matches that I have seen him play.He is just playing a player right now that has a ton of confidence and is playing a great game. I just don't know if Gulbis can keep up the level for a full three sets

**michalis** · 05-01-10, 11:29 AM

Originally posted by tailmypicks

how quickly things change
there were signs in last match when wawa kept it close

well wawrinka is a better player and he didnt really keep it that close