Stacocakes Romes Masters Series thread

**tankman777** · 04-29-10, 09:49 AM

big shocker azarenka lost ot some nonamer

**Stacocakes** · 04-29-10, 10:10 AM

Djokovic wins in straight sets and so does Verdasco
Tsonga looks to be moving on as well
Gulbis and VOlandri are in the third set

Some additional money on Ferrer coming in now.Got him at -131 last night and now he is at -146. Good sign

**Stacocakes** · 04-29-10, 10:13 AM

Azarenka losing a match as a big favorite is something that is not good for her after what has happened with her matches lately....

**EaglesPhan36** · 04-29-10, 10:39 AM

My man Ljubicic pulled out of the tourney. Lopez gets the walkover.

**Stacocakes** · 04-29-10, 10:44 AM

wonder why he waited so long to pull out

**EaglesPhan36** · 04-29-10, 10:58 AM

I guess at least he didn't screw me by playing a set and retiring to ruin my parlay with Gulbis. Let's go Ferrer.

**beefcake** · 04-29-10, 11:04 AM

retirements suck

**EaglesPhan36** · 04-29-10, 11:46 AM

Ferrer wins the 1st, 6-3. Murray is getting 29% of his 1st serves in.

**Stacocakes** · 04-29-10, 01:08 PM

Ferrer wins. Seems that most had him which is good. Murray is just no match for him on clay

Wawrinka beats Soderling in straight sets. Impressive win for Wawrinka here as a +200ish dog. I remember some of you wanted to parlay Soderling and Tsonga but were scared of Soderling possibly being upset so hopefully you guys didn't take that parlay.

Haven't looked ahead yet to tomorrow's matches but will at some point today. Let's keep the winner's coming

**Stacocakes** · 04-29-10, 01:41 PM

Nadal about to start.Should be a quick match

**EaglesPhan36** · 04-29-10, 01:54 PM

Good match-ups in the QFs:

Verdasco-Djokovic: Super revenge spot for Djokovic who has gotten his ass handed to him at Monte Carlo & at the Kyoong exhibitions in January by Verdasco. Verdasco again showed his inconsistencies in the 2nd set against GGL, leading 5-3 and inexplicably having to go to a tie break to win. Djokovic is fresher and I'd be comfortable taking him as a short favorite. I'm hoping the books might over value Verdasco's recent clay run though and make this a pick 'em of better.

Tsonga-Ferrer: As simple as surface here to me. Tsonga is progressively getting more comfortable on clay, but having never met Ferrer and having to go against him on the Spaniard's best surface is a tough spot. As I said yesterday with the Murray match, Ferrer should be a minimum -200 favorite here and I think the books may put a more accurate price tag on this. Ferrer useful in parlays potentially.

Gulbis-Lopez: Gulbis clearly in better form on clay, but he has a tendency to leave his opponents in matches too much. I am banking on this one being a good over bet on the total and maybe use Gulbis in parlays. Juice will probably be too high on Gulbis to take as a single play.

Nadal-Wawrinka: Thanks for playing Stan Wawrinka. The Swiss has had a solid few tournaments on clay, but you're about to climb Mount Olympus after playing on a mole hill. Interested only to see the O/U ... if anyone is going to take Nadal to something like 17-18 games in a two setter, maybe ... but I'd have to have 17 to take the OVER. Even then, tough to say Wawrinka can do it.

Depending on prices, my plays right now would be Djokovic by himself, parlay Ferrer & Gulbis potentially.

**Stacocakes** · 04-29-10, 02:09 PM

Nadal with the early break.What a shot to break that serve to love.

Nice analysis as always Eagles. Agree that Djokovic will beat Verdasco after he was beat fairly easily by Fernando a couple weeks ago. Agree that Ferrer will beat Tsonga but I am not sure what kind of price we would get for that match. Might pass on that one myself. The Gulbis of old is bound to show up sooner or later so if Lopez is available at a big price he might be worth a shot here.

I can't see anyone taking a set off Nadal here let alone beating him. Was worried about Soderling and Federer in this half of the draw but both are gone so the path is clear to the finals for Rafa.

Will take a better look at the prices for the matches once this Nadal match is over.

**Stacocakes** · 04-29-10, 02:31 PM

another break to love by Nadal to get the lead in the second set. To good

**EaglesPhan36** · 04-29-10, 02:37 PM

Damn. Djokovic at -174 at Pinnacle to open. Will wait and hope some people jump on Verdasco. I want into the -160s or I will only use it in a parlay. Ferrer "only" -180. Gulbis -185. Ferrer/Djokovic parlay might be in order.

**Stacocakes** · 04-29-10, 02:52 PM

hmm ya with Djokovic's losses late in tournaments lately I am hesitant to take him at -174 at this point. Not sure if I want to bet on Lopez, he is not good at all. Ferrer/Djokovic parlay might pay a good number. Definately something to think about .Don't feel comfortable betting on Djokovic or Ferrer straight up though.

**Stacocakes** · 04-29-10, 03:06 PM

For some reason I keep on thinking about Tsonga possibly pulling the upset over Ferrer on clay. Just a gut feeling.

**Stacocakes** · 04-29-10, 03:09 PM

Nadal wins easily in 2 sets.If you have a chance to watch the match then check out the second last point of the match. Was an amazing rally

**JNic** · 04-29-10, 03:17 PM

yea i saw that last point, very good stuff

**EaglesPhan36** · 04-29-10, 03:34 PM

Originally posted by Stacocakes

For some reason I keep on thinking about Tsonga possibly pulling the upset over Ferrer on clay. Just a gut feeling.

I can't see it unless he serves out of his mind and his serve numbers at least haven't been great this tournament although from what I read, this is some of the faster clay on tour. I just think Ferrer's return game against anything but his best serve is enough to win. If they had met before, might give Tsonga a look.

**Bostonknowledge** · 04-29-10, 10:25 PM

Have you come to a final verdict yet Stacocakes? Looking forward to your pick(s).

**JNic** · 04-29-10, 10:37 PM

- yea i can't make a decision on the gulbis/lopez match, i think i gotta skip

**Stacocakes** · 04-29-10, 11:45 PM

Whats up guys?Have been thinking about this and I am going to pull the trigger on Tsonga. Money coming in very hard on Ferrer which is making the Tsonga price even better.

Tsonga +206

This play is definately worth the risk. Have had a good week so if it loses I won't cry or anything but I just have a gut feeling about this one and the price is great. Of course I will probably wake up to a 60 61 Ferrer win because of this but I am going to take my chance here

Best of luck to you guys tomorrow. Let's make some money

**Stacocakes** · 04-29-10, 11:49 PM

JNic I would pass on the gulbis match. He is definately the better player and in better form at this moment but he is to inconsistant to take as a big favorite.

Passing on Djokovic though I think he wins to get verdasco back for the loss a couple weeks ago

**EaglesPhan36** · 04-29-10, 11:53 PM

Can't say I am rooting for you because I'm using Ferrer in a parlay. I think Tsonga can keep it tight if his serve is pumping, I just think Ferrer has the edge because they've never met and I think it's tougher on an inexperienced clay courter like Tsonga. I did decide to go ahead and go with Verdasco at +165 over Djokovic. Read about rumors of a nagging shoulder thing for Djokovic which may have contributed partially to his poor showing against Fernando in Monte Carlo. I'm big on the fatigue angle, but I think if Verdasco gets his first serve in steadily again, he'll have a chance I think riding with the plus money will make the effort worthwhile. My favorite play is Gulbis-Lopez and the OVER. Just think both are going to win a lot of cheap points on serve and even though Lopez isn't great on clay, Gulbis has been hot & cold from set to set ... so three sets could be in the making again.

I think we had the quarters about pegged except for the Gulbis-Lopez match-up, but I think we thought Federer wasn't going to be here. Djokovic-Verdasco was pretty straight forward. Tsonga-Ferrer was also a pretty straight forward one. Nadal vs. whomever didn't matter. Your outright is as solid as it was when the tournament began. I still think it's going to be Nadal vs. Ferrer.

**raydog** · 04-30-10, 01:06 AM

chucked patty for 7pts...it really feels like i just hit a 16 game walkoff parlay....it saaawwweeeetttt

**Stacocakes** · 04-30-10, 01:41 AM

Agree Eagles that the Gulbis/Lopez match could be along the same lines as his match with Volandri today. That looks to be a really good bet actually.

I think Djokovic wins over Verdasco tomorrow but I just am not feeling to good about betting Djokovic at those odds. With Novak anything is possible and a Verdasco win would not surprise me. I hope you hit that Eagles its a good payout.

I'm just taking Tsonga based on gut feeling and the price.It's worth a shot.If it doesn't hit the world will not end haha.

Ray you just decreased Venditto's networth by 4%. He is going to be buried soon if you keep that up haha

**tailmypicks** · 04-30-10, 02:22 AM

taking tsonga cos of 3.0
and covering it up with henin 1.4

**Stacocakes** · 04-30-10, 09:27 AM

Good luck TMP

Verdasco serving for the match in the third set.This should be interesting

**Stacocakes** · 04-30-10, 09:35 AM

Great hit Eagles on Verdasco. 3 hour and 18 min match. Crazy. I figured Djokovic would win this match but props to Verdasco again for beating him.He has had a great last three weeks.

**EaglesPhan36** · 04-30-10, 09:37 AM

Yeah I don't know, I've been in a pretty good groove this week and that was one after I did a little more reading and thinking, I decided to change my mind on from Djokovic originally to Verdasco. Honestly think the price helped a bunch. If Djokovic was a short favorite, I probably would have been more likely to stick with him.

**Stacocakes** · 04-30-10, 09:37 AM

Tsonga/Ferrer match is next

**Stacocakes** · 04-30-10, 09:38 AM

After this long match a fade of verdasco would have to be the play for next match, as long as the price is right.You would think

**EaglesPhan36** · 04-30-10, 09:48 AM

Be interesting if it's Ferrer. Sets up another revenge spot. Ferrer had his shot in Barcelona, but got blown out in the 3rd set. Depends how long Tsonga-Ferrer are on-court today as well.

**tankman777** · 04-30-10, 09:53 AM

like henin a lot

**Stacocakes** · 04-30-10, 10:38 AM

Well Tsonga loses the first set.He had a break chance in that set but blew it.Ferrer seems to be getting to every ball that Tsonga hits so it's putting to much pressure on Tsonga to have to hit his shots perfectly in order to win points. I can't really see Tsonga winning this match at this point.