[Jeff_Black]

On another note, I'll be playing the Greek kid against Nadal. I think Tsitsi has what it takes to beat Nadal. It's time for the kids to start etching their place in tennis. It's time for the rats to start chasing the cats (lol).

Same and all I've heard is his single handed backhand won't hold up which I completely disagree with. Most people who heavily follow tennis juniors knew Tsitsipas was a future slam champ a long time coming along with Shapa and Felix Auger Aliassime so it's not surprise that is coming to fruition now.

But he attacks better with his SH backhanded and I think it can hold up defensively better because he is a better mover then Nadal's opponents to date. I also think Nadal's tactic of standing 20m behind the baseline won't be as affective because Tsitsipas is better at the net and can shorten the points and play attacking tennis.

Plus he's the best mentally better player then all of the nextgen guys so I don't think the occasion will get to him.

[Conqueror]

100%.

[Jeff_Black]

Looking at the odds, probably another ML, Handicap and +2.5 sets bets in order...

[Conqueror]

Australia Open, Mens Singles, QF

Set Handicap: Lucas Pouille +2.5 Sets @ 1.793 on Pinnacle

Nice to get that one in the 1st set.

[Jeff_Black]

Nice to get that one in the 1st set.

Yeah felt like he was playing well despite being loose early to get broken and maybe nearly twice, didn't really have tough service games and mentally hung in there after blowing triple break points.

I dunno I just feel at these stages unless it's a player mismatch or someone is playing well it's hard to see it always being one sided...

[Tboonepickem]

nice +2.5 sets Jeff_Black !

[Conqueror]

Exactly. It doesn't matter what sport that is. At this stage in a competition, either side can win it.

[Jeff_Black]

nice +2.5 sets Jeff_Black !

Cheers

And I honestly thought it would be lower for Pouille, get Raonic beat some names but Zverev wasn't there for two sets and by the time Zverev sorted out things it was too late.

[flabrah5]

Think Pouille can do it in 3? I have u38 games. Thought it was going to be Roanic to put it away haha.

[BigDawg11]

Love your picks Jeff, been tailing last couple days. Who do you like in this Djoker/Nishi match?

[Conqueror]

Think Pouille can do it in 3? I have u38 games. Thought it was going to be Roanic to put it away haha.

I see it coming. Just believe.

[flabrah5]

I see it coming. Just believe.

No doubt I'm worried but Roanic looks completely deflated. After losing the 5-3 set in which he was serving for to one in a tiebfeaker, just hasn't showed any glimmer of hope.

Let's go Pouille!

[Jeff_Black]

Think Pouille can do it in 3? I have u38 games. Thought it was going to be Roanic to put it away haha.

Tough one to ask, I've never considered Raonic a mentally strong player but from what I have seen of this match pan out so far Pouille looks confident in his shots, he's going for it and nothing like the player that gave up a 0-3 start at the beginning of the match...
Raonic looks a little broken and lost in confidence too, can see it being three sets.

If you got a lot on it maybe hedge out? heh

[Jeff_Black]

Love your picks Jeff, been tailing last couple days. Who do you like in this Djoker/Nishi match?

Have Djokovic 3-0 picked out for this one already, odds have shortened since I played it but it's still decent value. I think it's closer to less then 1.70 personally mainly because it's a bad matchup for Nishikori but all it would take is a loose Djokovic service game or TB like he did against Medvedev.
This is not even taking into account all the hours Nishikori has logged in but I don't think he can threaten Djokovic on serve.

[Jeff_Black]

In regards to a reverse fortune I did the same thing one time. Had an under wager that was something like 37/38. It was at the French Open, Raonic vs Carreno Busta, Round 3 or something like that. He was looking good that tournament but thought it'd be three sets.
Carreno Busta ends up winning in three sets lol.

[Conqueror]

Love your picks Jeff, been tailing last couple days. Who do you like in this Djoker/Nishi match?

Jeff already answered this. The key things in tennis are service and defense. In this matchup, Djokovic has the edge on both. So I don't see Nishikori winning a set here - especially that this is a grand slam match.

[flabrah5]

In regards to a reverse fortune I did the same thing one time. Had an under wager that was something like 37/38. It was at the French Open, Raonic vs Carreno Busta, Round 3 or something like that. He was looking good that tournament but thought it'd be three sets.
Carreno Busta ends up winning in three sets lol.

Haha it's so nice of the gambling God's ain't it? I'm completely wrong on what I say and why I play it but you still cash a ticket.

Hoping it happens but I agree - Roanic looks lost. Deflated. No creativity. He can't even get his service game in line

That said, Pouille is returning very well.

[Jeff_Black]

Jeff already answered this. The key things in tennis are service and defense. In this matchup, Djokovic has the edge on both. So I don't see Nishikori winning a set here - especially that this is a grand slam match.

Yeah Nishikori feels to me like a taller David Ferrer, plays high percentage, doesn't have a great serve, defends well and moves well but his serve isn't disguised as well and usually the second serve games become more crucial of which guys like Djokovic/Nadal/Federer win more of. There is risk but I think the risk is worth it.

[BigDawg11]

Have Djokovic 3-0 picked out for this one already, odds have shortened since I played it but it's still decent value. I think it's closer to less then 1.70 personally mainly because it's a bad matchup for Nishikori but all it would take is a loose Djokovic service game or TB like he did against Medvedev.
This is not even taking into account all the hours Nishikori has logged in but I don't think he can threaten Djokovic on serve.

hmm okay, well the shitty ass PPH site I'm working with for the next couple of days only has ML, game spread, and game total so I'm looking at

-7.5 (-114)
+7.5 (-116)

o33 (-112)
u33 (-118)

Would you take either the under or game spread in favor of Djoker or just lay off if you were me?

[Jeff_Black]

Haha it's so nice of the gambling God's ain't it? I'm completely wrong on what I say and why I play it but you still cash a ticket. Hoping it happens but I agree - Roanic looks lost. Deflated. No creativity. He can't even get his service game in line That said, Pouille is returning very well.

Yeah he has looked good even in that set, seeming like wanting to win in three you would hope. Rhythm is good and he isn't spraying shots. Hoping it is done before a TB though haha

He is also flying through his service games now

[DavidGoliath5003]

I wouldnt take the minus sets just incase nishikori gives it everything to win the 1st set.... one way or the other i think he has 1.5 sets in him thats it. Could be a wash after that. -7.5 is where its st imo

[Jeff_Black]

Would you take either the under or game spread in favor of Djoker or just lay off if you were me?

My preference would be the under then IMO. Preferably not get the two tiebreaks or 7-5s in that instance.

Only worry its like 6-4 6-4 6-3 which is still not a cover...

[DavidGoliath5003]

The odds are actually low imo kinda scares me a bit. Factor in fatigue head to head a djokovic should be 12.00 ish on the ML

[DavidGoliath5003]

My preference would be the under then IMO. Preferably not get the two tiebreaks or 7-5s in that instance.

Only worry its like 6-4 6-4 6-3 which is still not a cover...

Jeff, the energy level wont be the same over 3 sets... zero chance nushikori has more than two grind sets in him.... did you watch his last match? Insane

[Jeff_Black]

Jeff, the energy level wont be the same over 3 sets... zero chance nushikori has more than two grind sets in him.... did you watch his last match? Insane

Don't disagree, just going what I thought felt safer. Even if he has a brain fart and drops a tb he can still come back and win 6-1 6-0 or something but I think he wins in three just my personal opinion. Like you said third set can be 6-1 or 6-2 so even if its like 7-6 6 -4 or something it's an easy cover.

Ive seen their other AO matches and Djokovic can get flaky in the second set but Kei loses those matches in the locker room even still.

[Conqueror]

I wouldnt take the minus sets just incase nishikori gives it everything to win the 1st set.... one way or the other i think he has 1.5 sets in him thats it. Could be a wash after that. -7.5 is where its st imo

Would agree with you if this was a non-grandslam match. The cream of the elite bring their all to the grandslams.
Djokovic must be savoring his chances at another GS now that Fed is gone, no Murray in the mix, and Nadal isn't a hardcourter. To be honest with you, Tsitsipas is probably the only player alive now standing in the way of Djokovic winning it all.
Nishikori makes over $20 m a year from endorsements, knows he can't beat Djokovic and can care less. True. Talent and motivation are on Djokovic's side.

[flabrah5]

How many break points can Pouille get? Roanic serve is saving him per usual.

[Jeff_Black]

How many break points can Pouille get? Roanic serve is saving him per usual.

Yeah he was serve botting his way out of games throughout this whole set. Pouille is hitting some excellent shots and out rallying the slower Raonic.
Worst case scenario it gets to a Tiebreak and Pouille fluffs it gifting Raonic points.

[BigDawg11]

I can assume it wouldn't be wise to put a bit on both -7.5 and u33?

As you can tell, not really a regular tennis bettor

[Conqueror]

Pouille is winning another tiebreaker.

[Jeff_Black]

Pouille is winning another tiebreaker.

My worry is he fluffs a few points as a gift to Raonic but minus Raonic's serving Pouille has already won this set.

[BigDawg11]

Raonic heated lol

[DavidGoliath5003]

Absolutely rediculous. So many break points by Pouille... how is Raonic +100 live right now smh

[flabrah5]

Couldn't see more of a worst set for Pouille. Had break opportunities everywhere then gets to a TB and absolutely chokes.

You called the fluffs. Horrendous.

[Conqueror]

My worry is he fluffs a few points as a gift to Raonic but minus Raonic's serving Pouille has already won this set.

Spot on.