Stacocakes Monte-Carlo Masters thread

**EaglesPhan36** · 04-16-10, 08:59 AM

Djokovic on cruise control in the 1st - serving it out at 5-2. So far, so good. Gotta go look at WTA totals too.

**Stacocakes** · 04-16-10, 10:25 AM

Nadal beats JCF in two sets. Well it's not really surprising but it was worth a shot to take JCF at those big odds.
Nice hit on the Ferrer/Djokovic parlay Eagles.Surprised Djokovic defeated Nalbandian that easily

Montanes gets broken the first service game of the match.That can't be a good sign haha. Still lots of tennis left let's hope he rebounds

**Stacocakes** · 04-16-10, 10:38 AM

Montanes not looking to good so far
Still think the odds were to good to pass up for both MOntanes and JCF. Just didn't work out for JCF. Hopefullly Montanes rebounds here.
Haven't seen the line yet but if it's another inflated line might even be worth it to risk some money on Ferrer tomorrow over Nadal.

**Diesel79** · 04-16-10, 10:55 AM

damn..... looks like Montanes didnt came to play tonight

**EaglesPhan36** · 04-16-10, 10:56 AM

As I said with Fat Dave, when you think he has a chance - he's shown very little this year and then when you think he should lose (Robredo for me) - he steps up. Verdasco's serve is solid so far, that's the chance we could have to get back in is if it goes south and it can at any moment when he starts double faulting, etc. F-ing Bryans ruined my parlay. I gotta learn not to take them when their price gets under -300, they've lost the last two times I've seen their price that low. Sucks because the other doubles team I had won, Jankovic is spanking Hantuchova and I still think Zvonareva is going to kill Oudin tonight.

**Stacocakes** · 04-16-10, 11:02 AM

Montanes loses the first set but breaks Verdasco the first game of the second set. Cmon Montanes

**Stacocakes** · 04-16-10, 11:04 AM

Sucks that the Bryans ruined your parlay.I don't know if I have ever bet on a doubles match. Don't usually see feeds to watch those matches thats probably why

**Stacocakes** · 04-16-10, 11:04 AM

MOntanes gives the break right back.Unbelievable

**EaglesPhan36** · 04-16-10, 11:06 AM

So much for that.

**EaglesPhan36** · 04-16-10, 11:08 AM

Verdasco's serve certainly is slipping some in this set. That's Montanes' only chance I think is if Verdasco has to get in a lot of 2nd serves.

**EaglesPhan36** · 04-16-10, 11:13 AM

Game over. Montanes stinks today. Oh well, I went light on it to begin with since they were both long shots.

**Stacocakes** · 04-16-10, 11:17 AM

ya Verdasco has broke montanes his last two service games.This match is definately over now. Oh well. Better to lose taking a chance on a big dog then to go down backing a heavy fav

**Stacocakes** · 04-16-10, 11:28 AM

I'm hoping that Djokovic/Nadal make the finals because I would like to see what the odds are going to be. The last times they have met on clay back in 2009 Nadal was still a -1000 favorite vs Djokovic. If this is the case and the odds are going to be brutal for Nadal all of the time then taking Nadal to win the french open as an outright has to be the play because there is no way you are going to be able to do anything with your outright numbers if you have player facing Nadal in the finals. If Djokovic gets to the final here I am going to have him at +700 and that might not even be as good as the odds that I would be able to get on Djokovic if I just bet him for the final match. Only way to do outright betting might be by just taking Nadal on clay. He was -150 at this tournament originally and he is -164 for the French Open right now. I am going to be taking that I think.

**EaglesPhan36** · 04-16-10, 11:31 AM

Wonder how ridiculous the Nadal line will be for tomorrow? Does Ferrer get as much respect as JCF and get +1000? Djokovic ought to be at least as big a favorite as today I think over Verdasco (-170) or higher. Djokovic's won 5 of the last 6 head-2-head and leads their clay court encounters 2-1 ... might get lucky though with a lower line if Verdasco's win today is over valued.

**EaglesPhan36** · 04-16-10, 11:34 AM

Could be wise to book that French Open ahead of time, but I can't pull the trigger on futures this far away ... too many factors in between - injury, draw, etc. I know draw for Nadal in Paris is less of a problem than most, but with his injury history, I'm not willing to book him this far ahead of time personally.

**Stacocakes** · 04-16-10, 11:37 AM

Eagles last time Rafa played Ferrer on clay he was a shade over -2000 and that was in 2009. The last two times Nadal had played JCF he was -2500 and -5000 so the lines have come down a small bit for this tournament but they are still fairly close so we will see Ferrer at around +1400 I am thinking at least which is ridiculous. Anything can happen in tennis really and if you have a player that is very good on the surface playing Nadal and you are giving them +1000 to +2000 how do you not take the chance on them? I can't believe there are people consistantly betting Nadal at -1500 to -2000. I know he wins all of the time on clay but still those odds are crazy when anything can happen. We don't even know if Rafa is 100%.

**Stacocakes** · 04-16-10, 11:39 AM

Not really sure how the outrights work if a player gets injured. I believe there was a big deal on betfair last year for wimbledon when he backed out of it those people that had him as an outright bet lost eventhough he wasn't even in the tournament. I THINK that is what happened not 100% sure. I agree though that he could get injured inbetween plus it is not worth it to leave money tied up for a couple months either. I would rather wait and pay a slightly worse price but have the satisfaction of knowing that my money won't be tied up for long and that he is not injured.Best to wait but I think Nadal to win the French Open has to be the play when the time comes

**EaglesPhan36** · 04-16-10, 11:44 AM

Verdasco is trying to make this a match. Montanes can get even at 5.

**tailmypicks** · 04-16-10, 12:00 PM

hope u havent turned off the telly, ur boy has some chance now

**EaglesPhan36** · 04-16-10, 12:01 PM

Unbelievable, we are going to a 3rd set! Verdasco chokes a 5-1 lead I think in the 2nd set. Beautiful. Gonna look to see what Verdasco is in live betting, maybe I can profit here.

**EaglesPhan36** · 04-16-10, 12:02 PM

Verdasco still -235, not worth a hedge. Go Montanes, make this SOB pay.

**MUHerd37** · 04-16-10, 12:06 PM

Verdasco prolly gonna lose now. I can't believe this! All I need is Verdasco to complete my parlays! Wasn't he up in the 2nd set like 3-1 or 4-1!!!???

**EaglesPhan36** · 04-16-10, 12:13 PM

I think Montanes had action on the OVER for this one. He's back to sucking ass in the 3rd.

**MUHerd37** · 04-16-10, 12:24 PM

Verdasco wins 3rd set 6-0. Wow had match point at 5-1 in the 2nd set and yet lost the set. You gotta try to do that.

**Totolover1409** · 04-16-10, 12:53 PM

Anyone on the Petrova Wozniacki match?

**Stacocakes** · 04-16-10, 01:56 PM

Wow can't believe Montanes came back in the second set. Was out this whole time.

I'm not playing any womens tennis today Toto. Scared to bet on it

All that work to get the second set by MOntanes to get bagelled in the third set.Geez

**MUHerd37** · 04-16-10, 02:19 PM

I'm on Wozniacki and Zvonereva in a parlay

**MUHerd37** · 04-16-10, 02:26 PM

Shit Wozniacki already won. Just need Zvonereva now.

**EaglesPhan36** · 04-16-10, 02:32 PM

Djokovic -211
Verdasco +193

Nadal -865
Ferrer +711

Pinnacle prices. Think Djokovic would have been under -200 if Verdasco didn't screw around in that 2nd set perhaps. Shocked the Nadal price is that low compared to the last round.

**Stacocakes** · 04-16-10, 03:37 PM

Yes I am also very surprised that Nadal is "only" -865. Figured he would be more of a fav vs Ferrer then he was vs JCF. Pinnacle has Nadal at -925 so I don't know if its just a bad number or people are betting alot on Nadal since you posted his -865 price. Already have the outright on ferrer so i'm not going to put any further money on him.Was hoping to get some huge number like +1500. +700ish is a no play. Just going to let the DJokovic outright ride as well.No point in betting on Verdasco. Wonder what the Djokovic/Nadal line will be if they both get to the finals....

A little side play from hockey, i'm parlaying the Sharks and the Penguins ml's which pays -112. Feel that is a pretty good price for both big favorites. Can't see them losing both home games to go down 2-0.

**Stacocakes** · 04-16-10, 03:38 PM

Wow ok so you had the pinnacle prices to.Didn't notice that part. Money is coming in on Nadal then afterall and lots.

**Stacocakes** · 04-16-10, 04:01 PM

By the way based on the outright odds of Nadal it looks as though Nadal would be -400 or so against Djokovic in the final

**EaglesPhan36** · 04-16-10, 04:49 PM

I'd give anything to see Ferrer get to the final at that +3500 although I know there's like less than a 1% chance probably.

**Stacocakes** · 04-16-10, 05:07 PM

Eagles anything is possible
Maybe Nadal gets injured in the second set?

He might show up and do an "andy murray" as well and lose in straight sets. Anything is possible and I have seen it all. If I was betting Nadal at -1000 or whatever it will be I would say he would then have a 50/50 chance of winning since I have no luck when I bet bad like that.

**EaglesPhan36** · 04-16-10, 06:08 PM

Yeah. I'm looking at a parlay with some sort of combo that will include Djokovic and then either Schiavone or Stosur ... leaning Stosur, but waiting for the line to appear. She's been pretty good this week and Hantuchova I don't think is that good on the clay surface, she just got to play Jelena "No Serve" Jankovic today.