Stacocakes Monte-Carlo Masters thread

**Stacocakes** · 04-14-10, 12:42 PM

Nice hit on Nalbandian

**Stacocakes** · 04-14-10, 01:49 PM

Did anyone bet on the Azarenka match? Lots of talk on the tennis forum about this match and it being fixed. Will tell you guys more about it shortly.Just trying to gather all the facts

**Stacocakes** · 04-14-10, 02:05 PM

Azarenka retired her last match. For this match she was 1.07 prematch. Then shortly before the match she went to 1.10. The price then drifted all the way to 1.60 at the start of the match. When she was up 5-2 in the first set the odds were at 3.50 for Azarenka. At 6-2 1-0 30-15 Azarenka was bet down to 1.40. At 6-2 2-1 she was 1.5 to 1.7 odds. Azarenka then retires while up 6-2 2-2 in the match. All bets settled since there was one set completed.

**EaglesPhan36** · 04-14-10, 03:41 PM

I would say it was weird except she retired her last tournament up 4-0 in the 1st, so I think the injury she has is legit. There just may have been a lot of "smart" bettors involved.

**Stacocakes** · 04-14-10, 04:37 PM

True.Injury or not though if a player is usually a 1.07 fav and they are up 5-2 in the first set then they shouldn't be 3.50 odds.

Quickly looking at tomorrow there are going to be some great matches. Ferrero over Tsonga is probably the play on this surface. Kohl/Petz match is crap. Ferrer should beat LJubicic. Verdasco should get revenge on Berdych and beat him on clay. MOntanes looks like he might be a good dog on clay vs Cilic at +185. Defiantely going to bet him. Nalbandian over Robredo also seems like a good play though not to sure about it yet

**ringemup** · 04-14-10, 04:54 PM

wow murray got cleaned out by kohlschreiber, 1 reason not to bank on favorites too much in this sport.

**EaglesPhan36** · 04-14-10, 05:14 PM

No way I'm taking Nalbandian. 3 hours on court and then coming back against Robredo who has been looking real good? Robredo all day for me. That fat bastard Nalbandian can prove me wrong if he can. Also against your selection of Verdasco. Berdych is playing with pretty good confidence right now. Honestly that match if you bet it, just take whomever is the dog because it is a toss-up ... I just like the Berd Man. I have him for a small slice at +2200 to win the whole thing just for shits, giggles and hedge outs. Ferrer-Ferrero is my parlay for tomorrow most likely.

**beefcake** · 04-14-10, 06:43 PM

Yeah I saw yesterday in the azarenka match that the odds were falling and then i remembered that she retired last match she played.Stupid of me to not get on that.Im sure 5 dimes got killed today on that bet.. +935 to +775..
and pinny went from +1300 to +429..

.

Really stupid move by the books to lay such a big line after a retirement,just goes to show that if you do your homework that they can be beaten..

**JNic** · 04-14-10, 07:25 PM

I love Ferrero here, I saw Tsonga vs Almagro and Tsonga really wasn't that impressive. This is Ferrero's match to win

**Giuvara** · 04-15-10, 12:26 AM

I am also liking the looks of Berdych at about evens. His serve is doing very good right now and he seems to be hitting winners on the sides more than ever.He leads Verdasco 2-1 on clay and has defeated him in the last two tournaments.IMO, he should be favorite here.

**Stacocakes** · 04-15-10, 12:29 AM

Ferrero-Ferrer sounds like a good parlay Eagles. I'm going to join you on that. I'm also going to look for an upset with Montanes over Cilic. This is not Cilic's surface and he is one of the most inconsistant players on tour so it's worth a try against Montanes who loves this surface. Going to also take Verdasco as well. Match is a complete toss up but just have a feeling he wins.

Plays for the day:

Ferrer/ Ferrero parlay pays +103

Montanes +170

Verdasco -107

Best of luck tomorrow guys

**tailmypicks** · 04-15-10, 12:57 AM

wow i thought many will be on tsonga cos of the dog price, complete opposite here. JCF's stock has risen back cos of the 3 finals he reached in south america. One was based entirely of tier 2 players which he won, in the second tourney final he faced a D Ferrer who was coming after a long standing injury. And in the third one when he faced a fully recovered ferrer, JCF lost. I havent seen tsonga on dirt this season, so is he really that unimpressive on clay or JCF that good?

**obie** · 04-15-10, 01:22 AM

Hmm. I dont know about JCF. I really like Tsonga to that price.

**Stacocakes** · 04-15-10, 02:22 AM

Didn't get to see the Tsonga match but as JNic has said and what many other's on the forums have said is that he didn't play that well so the fading of Tsonga by most is based solely on the surface being clay. If this was hard court then I would definately take Tsonga. Included Ferrero in the parlay with Ferrer so if it all backfires at least the loss isn't that bad

**shantymoon** · 04-15-10, 03:29 AM

i like tsonga too as a dog in his home country

**obie** · 04-15-10, 04:54 AM

Exactly shanty. Home country! I dont think he played that bad, he just have to get used the surface! Tsonga's power can defeat JFC.

**EaglesPhan36** · 04-15-10, 07:17 AM

Nice hit on Montanes. I should have though more about that one.

**Wade Dwayne** · 04-15-10, 07:20 AM

Originally posted by Stacocakes

Plays for the day:

Montanes +170

damn it seemed most cappers where on montanes tonight. Would have definitely layed off i saw it. Nice call

**Stacocakes** · 04-15-10, 07:57 AM

Whats up guys?

Couldn't really sleep much tonight but it's great to wake up to see that Montanes hit as a +170 dog and Verdasco beat Berdych in a 3 set match. Ferrer also won so that just leaves Ferrero to finish off the parlay as well. Great day so far

Nadal wins 6-0 6-1. Guys having trouble even taking a couple games off Nadal on clay. He's going to be very tough to beat here. If Ferrer can win one more match he will have to face Nadal and I think that's where Ferrer' run will end. Was good to get him at a nice price as an outright but if Nadal is back into regular clay court form as it looks like he is, the original -150 outright on Nadal to win the tournament was probably the best outright play eventhough it didn't have a large return.

Do you guys have any plays for the rest of the day? Looks as though Ferrero/Tsonga is on court next. Currently Nalbandian and Robredo are playing on serve in the first.

**EaglesPhan36** · 04-15-10, 08:11 AM

Djokovic-Wawrinka OVER is one I like a lot. Seeing as Robredo looks like he's going to put me at 0-2 with Ferrero going now to try and get that parlay done.

**Stacocakes** · 04-15-10, 08:27 AM

Agree that the Djokovic match will be a close one.Could definately see it going three sets since DJokovic seems to always lose at least one set these days

Nalbandian up 1 set and a break. JCF up a break in the first set

**Stacocakes** · 04-15-10, 08:34 AM

Tsonga looks like crap on clay.Another break for JCF and he is now serving for the first set

**Stacocakes** · 04-15-10, 08:36 AM

First set JCF 6-1

Robredo got the break back

**EaglesPhan36** · 04-15-10, 08:36 AM

Love me some JCF. Hope he can finish it up and cash that Ferrer-O parlay. Robredo at least got back on serve vs. Fat Dave in the 2nd. If he can somehow win the 2nd set, then it's on to see if Nalbandian is really fit enough to win successive 3 setters.

**EaglesPhan36** · 04-15-10, 08:38 AM

Hey Staco, what's your plan with the Ferrer future? I'm on him small at +3500 also. I see him in the semis regardless of Kohlschreiber or Petzschner winning today. You gonna wait till then to hedge perhaps?

**EaglesPhan36** · 04-15-10, 08:43 AM

Robredo sucked today. Broken back. No chance.

**Stacocakes** · 04-15-10, 08:46 AM

Ferrer will probably win his next match but against Nadal I don't think we have much shot. Just took him as an outright to see if he could maybe pull off a shocker vs Nadal but if Nadal is in form I don't think that will happen. Looking through the past match history it appears that Nadal has been around a -1000 favorite when playing Ferrer on clay. Hard to hedge an outright with a line like that. I am going to play it by ear and hope that djokovic, which is my other outright, makes it to the final and hopefully the Nadal match is after the Djokovic match and if it is I am going to let he Ferrer outright ride on the Nadal match and then if Nadal beats Ferrer and meets Djokovic in the finals then I might try to hedge my djokovic outright at that point. In 2009 Nadal vs Djokovic on clay was -1000 as well so if that is a line that we are going to be seeing here then I think we might be in trouble with the outrights. Very hard to hedge one with a -1000 favorite. Have had a good tournament so far so I might just let it ride and hope one of them knocks off Rafa. Is that what you have been thinking as well Eagles?

**EaglesPhan36** · 04-15-10, 08:54 AM

Yeah pretty much. Since I am in fairly small on it as well, unless there was a shocking underdog going against him - figured I would ride it out too.

JCF now playing like crap?

**Stacocakes** · 04-15-10, 08:54 AM

bp tsonga

**Stacocakes** · 04-15-10, 08:55 AM

break Tsonga. Oh geez

**Stacocakes** · 04-15-10, 08:58 AM

bp ferrero get it back

**Stacocakes** · 04-15-10, 08:59 AM

bp saved

**Stacocakes** · 04-15-10, 09:02 AM

Nalbandian beats Robredo in straight sets

**EaglesPhan36** · 04-15-10, 09:06 AM

Need a break back for JCF. I don't wanna mess with a 3rd set, but seems inevitable.

**EaglesPhan36** · 04-15-10, 09:41 AM

JCF gets the break! Consolidate and let's go home a winner.