EP36's Tennis Talk

**EaglesPhan36** · 05-13-10, 03:11 PM

Well Cilic played like his uneven POS self today and got smoked. Think he's rapidly approaching my no-fly list with Andreev and Russian chicks.

**EaglesPhan36** · 05-13-10, 04:26 PM

So got the parlay today. 1-1 on totals and missed on Cilic. Even Steven in Madrid, but down a little because of the Challenger loss.

**Xtreme** · 05-13-10, 05:53 PM

Good job EaglesPhan!! I played that parlay as well. Thanx bro.

**EaglesPhan36** · 05-13-10, 11:28 PM

Things I THINK I Know ... May 14th

The two person parlay starts with David Ferrer. At -150, he is almost a bargain in this spot, I THINK. Andy Murray has found some form this week on dirt, but still is barely a 50% winner on clay in his career. Ferrer rebounded nicely against Cilic after having to work hard against Baghdatis in his opener. I THINK Ferrer has not had any problems with Murray on this surface, having beaten him rather routinely in Rome in April. This is defense on defense, but I THINK Ferrer has shown all Spring that this surface suits him much better. Ferrer is a rare breed in ATP play that can look like a dung beetle on his own serve in one game and break back in the next. I THINK that sees him through. The other part of the parlay lies with Spaniard Nicolas Almagro. He faces Melzer who comes in off the big upset of Verdasco. Melzer has matched up well with Verdasco in his career, so perhaps even at a bigger price ... Almagro is a solid bargain here. Almagro has the serve that can whip out aces in big spots and it has been working on this surface. He crushed Monaco a day after Monaco crushed a solid clay courter in Bellucci. Almagro should relish this shot at doing well on home soil and so long as his serve stays steady, expect him to outlast Melzer, I THINK. Parlay can be had for +127.

Have not seen any O/U numbers, but would definitely be interested in an Almagro-Melzer over at 21 or less. Believe that Nadal-Monfils at 21-22 would be a worthy under as Monfils has never matched up well vs. Rafa.

WTA style, I THINK I would take a piece of Stosur at plus money but not huge. The OVER there might be solid depending on the number. I would think 21-21.5 might do. Peer at plus money might also be worth a shot against Li. Both are good on dirt, but Peer might be a tad better and at the better price.

**yisman** · 05-14-10, 02:46 AM

I agree regarding Peer

**EaglesPhan36** · 05-14-10, 07:29 AM

Totals did not end up appealing to me for Nadal-Monfils at 19.5. That could go either way as I was thinking about 20 games in a 2 set match if Monfils came out playing well. Sat Stosur out, but will play Peer at +110. May play the Federer-Gulbis total at 22, I THINK the OVER is where I'd be headed.

**iceminers26** · 05-14-10, 07:55 AM

I like Li Eagles so you should be okay the way I have been running on the dirt

**EaglesPhan36** · 05-14-10, 08:21 AM

It was pretty much a 50-50 shot I thought on that one, but I liked Peer's form on dirt lately and the plus money is usually where I go on 50-50 tries. At least someone will win!

**SRBI** · 05-14-10, 08:34 AM

Crap, I'm too late for the Peer/Li match. I might just go all in with my SBR points on Jelena...its just points.

**EaglesPhan36** · 05-14-10, 08:37 AM

THINK I am entitled to one spur of the moment, stupid ass wager ... Nadal-Monfils OVER 19.5 at +145. The odds were too enticing. Monfils will probably lose 6-3, 6-3 or 6-4, 6-3 ... but Rafa was taken deeper into sets here last year and his first two matches were not quite as dominant as the previous tournaments. All comes down to Monfils serve and whether or not it's worth a F today.

**EaglesPhan36** · 05-14-10, 09:18 AM

Was definitely stupid ass. Monfils getting crushed. Oh well, it was small. He could quit after a set and make me happy.

**EaglesPhan36** · 05-14-10, 10:53 AM

Alright, Peer gets it done. Need Ferrer for the parlay completion. Still thinking about Gulbis-Federer and the total at 22. Still thinking over, but Gulbis has got to have his serve working from Game #1 so that even in two sets this could have a chance to push at worst.

**beefcake** · 05-14-10, 12:48 PM

Yeah debating myself on the fed over...action on the over,so i guess if we play were riding with the public..

**beefcake** · 05-14-10, 12:50 PM

Weird who would have thought at this point that the best price is at BET US

**EaglesPhan36** · 05-14-10, 12:53 PM

I THINK I'm on on the OVER at 22. Let's ride.

**Goat Milk** · 05-14-10, 01:07 PM

Originally posted by EaglesPhan36

I THINK I'm on on the OVER at 22. Let's ride.

EP- after how Fed spanked Wawrink yesterday? He could do the same to Gublis today especially since he's out for blood. No more games. Hope you cash the over but I need fed in straight sets.

**beefcake** · 05-14-10, 01:14 PM

fed wins 7-5 7-5 and were all happy

**beefcake** · 05-14-10, 01:15 PM

Dang the over got hit hard last minute at 5 dimes...Eagles must have laid the wood...!

**beefcake** · 05-14-10, 02:55 PM

Congrats to us!

**EaglesPhan36** · 05-14-10, 03:35 PM

Got the Over with no probs eh. Now need Ferrer to finish off a nice day.

**EaglesPhan36** · 05-14-10, 05:13 PM

Challenger alert. Kei Nishikori at 6:30pm ET against Ryan Sweeting. Two of the hotter players on the Challenger level in recent weeks. Nishikori destroyed Sweeting 6-4, 6-0 in Savannah last week. Sweeting had cramping problems against Bobby Reynolds yesterday and had to labor through a 3 set/2:30 hour match while Nishikori was on court for an hour in a straight sets win. Warm day again in Florida. Nishikori is high chalk at -200, but it's something you could pair up with another play for tonight in another sport I THINK and be in reasonably good shape.

**EaglesPhan36** · 05-14-10, 05:50 PM

Ferrer finishes off Murray, parlay complete. Federer is 10-0 against Ferrer, including 3-0 on clay. Price will be interesting. If Federer is in the low -200s, should be good parlay material. I personally think Federer needs to play Nadal in the final again. I don't think there will be any conspiracies of Federer not playing his best to avoid playing Rafa until possibly some time in the French. Last year I think will be in both their minds and will be motivation for both. Would be about time we got to see the two best in the game go at it again. Besides we don't need to see Nadal dismantle Ferrer again on clay, let him have someone else!

**EaglesPhan36** · 05-14-10, 07:31 PM

Nishikori rolled again: 6-4, 6-2. EZ bake oven.

**griffdog** · 05-14-10, 08:52 PM

What are the best books for finding lines on the Challenger matches?

**EaglesPhan36** · 05-14-10, 09:04 PM

5Dimes is the only book I know that regularly has Challenger lines. Other guys might be able to tell you some others, but this is a solid one to me.

**EaglesPhan36** · 05-14-10, 10:27 PM

Things I THINK I Know ... Saturday, May 15th

I THINK in looking to the two person parlay on Saturday, I start with Federer. The Swiss is 10-0 lifetime against Ferrer, including 3-0 on clay. Ferrer has been playing solid clay court tennis, but Federer as with last year - appears focused in Madrid. The slightly faster surface helps Federer a bit over Ferrer who would probably have a better shot on a slower court where he could just continue to run down Federer shots and force him into errors. That will be Ferrer's plan on Saturday too, but the faster surface should give Federer help on serve and give him enough to outlast the Spaniard. The 2nd leg of this parlay goes to WTA and Venus Williams. She has been impressive this week and holds a 4-0 mark against Peer, including an easy 6-3, 6-4 win in Rome a couple weeks back. Peer has been playing very well the last three tournaments on dirt, but Venus' power game is something that should overwhelm Peer throughout the course of the match. If Venus can continue to get cheap points off serve, she should be in the final in Madrid. This parlay can be had for -138.

Not big on totals tomorrow, but if Almagro can serve well, I THINK the OVER 19 with Almagro-Nadal has a shot.

**noober** · 05-14-10, 11:04 PM

Good call on Nishikori. Looks like he is finding his form back after the injury.

As for challengers, bet365 has pretty much everything and even live betting for the big matches. I guess odds at 5dimes are much better though.

**loyd** · 05-15-10, 12:08 AM

im out of tennis, its depending on the form of one player so if that day he/she not ok u lose even if he was the favorite.

**beefcake** · 05-15-10, 09:18 AM

missed the venus pick eagles...Wonder if doing a fed/nishikori 2 teamer would be worth it now..

**EaglesPhan36** · 05-15-10, 12:39 PM

Didn't get to look at Challenger prices because I slept in. That over was good in the Almagro match, surprised he took a set off Rafa - still have to believe Federer wants a piece of him in the finals here to gauge his form ... if Fed gets to the final and stacks up well against Rafa, could do wonders for his chance at the French again.

**Goat Milk** · 05-15-10, 01:13 PM

EP- if Fed gets through today, what will the finals line look like?

I would think Rafa -240

**EaglesPhan36** · 05-15-10, 02:03 PM

Not sure. With Rafa dropping a set and Federer serving lights out so far today, could be a little lower than that. But I think the price you said was around what the final was here last year on Madrid when Federer pulled off the upset.

**EaglesPhan36** · 05-15-10, 03:21 PM

Roger gets it done in 3. He lost it in the 2nd inexplicably which seems to be his problem on occassion - but a great final now on Sunday with Rafa & Fed. Also one to watch at the Bordeaux Challenger with Llodra & Gasquet. Want to see a price on that. Gasquet has absolutely murdered everyone he's played. Llodra has a big serve that could make life more difficult for Gasquet. Gasquet has won 4 of 5 head-2-head and all have been on hard courts.

**EaglesPhan36** · 05-15-10, 11:48 PM

Things I THINK I Know ... Sunday, May 16th

O/U is 22.5 in the Nadal-Federer match. I was expecting 22, so this isn't a big shift. Still favor the OVER at this point as I THINK about it. Will wait and see what other choices 5Dimes is going to add in. May look at the "Ends in 3 sets" prop for this one because it will probably be about +160 or better and the chances of getting 23 games for an over in two sets is not superbly high. You pretty much have to have a tie breaker set to get that done in two sets. After the opening set against Ferrer, I was of a mind that I thought Federer was focused and could give Rafa a helluva match on Sunday. Then the 2nd set happened where he just lost it and then was able to rediscover his game in the 3rd enough to beat Ferrer going away, 6-3. You pretty much have to have solid serving numbers to beat Nadal on clay and hope his serve is a little shaky. That's the combo Fed found here last year in the final. He won some big points off Rafa's 2nd serve and that's the chance he'll need Sunday. Rafa did not have a good 2nd serve against Almagro, so perhaps there is hope. I THINK if you want aboard the Federer Express for the final, you should wait and see where the line goes. I'm imagining most of the money is going to be on Rafa. If the line drifts to -300 and you can find Fed at +270 or better, I THINK that's the price you need to make the ride worth it. I THINK if you are backing Rafa, roll the handicap at -3.5 for just -125. If he is going to win, I THINK he covers that.

I also THINK I took this Korean guy Yong-Kyu Lim against Yen-Hsu Lu at +400 in the final for the Busan Challenger final on the basis that if Yen Hsu-Lu is a -600 favorite even against a guy ranked in the 700s ... I don't care the talent differential, it's a tournament final.

**Yezzir** · 05-16-10, 10:34 AM

Great shout on Lim.

I'm also riding the Fed express today, odds are just too high.