Stacocakes French Open Thread

**Stacocakes** · 05-29-09, 09:05 AM

Cilic had the break up in the second set but blew it so it will be interesting to see what happens here.If Step can win this second set I think he will probably win the match.If Cilic wins the second set he will probably just cruise to the end. Cilic had at least two break points to get a double break in the second and missed both and step broke back the next game.Cilic had this set if he had just held his serve
Good win by Davy today.I liked the fact that his odds were very low for this match.Didn't have that much travel with Wawrinka, who is overrated in my opinion.
Looks as though Hewitt won't be any match for Nadal

**Stacocakes** · 05-29-09, 09:19 AM

Did you guys see that cilic/Stepanek tiebreak? Cilic only held his serve twice and won the tiebreak. Horrible tennis by both

**EaglesPhan36** · 05-29-09, 09:32 AM

Damn. I guess that shows what a POS Stepanek was today. Looks like he is gonna roll over easy in the 3rd. What a putz.

**HeeeHAWWWW** · 05-29-09, 09:51 AM

Worst performance by Stepanek I've ever seen (and I include the Spadea loss in that). No forehand, no feel on the volleys, UEs galore, no serve. Nothing working.

The tiebreak was hilariously bad by them both. Cilic is always atrocious in tiebreaks, he's a complete choker, but Stepanek (normally pretty good) was even worse. Didn't win a point on serve, two double faults, multiple horor errors.

Cilic was terrible too. He'll get absolutely destroyed by Murray next round.

**SBR Lou** · 05-29-09, 11:13 AM

Sharapova making a mockery of herself.

**Stacocakes** · 05-29-09, 12:24 PM

Just getting back in here, how can Sharapova have lost the first set 6-1?Looks like she recovered in the second set at least.She should still win the match in the third

**SBR Lou** · 05-29-09, 01:33 PM

Lets go Azarenka, come on

**Stacocakes** · 05-29-09, 03:44 PM

These matches that they start so late are always getting suspended till the next day...why even bother starting them?Why not just have the azarenka match tomorrow instead? Its stupid
2-0 day today with the davydenko and Sharapova hits.Feeling good
Haven't had a chance to check on tomorrows matches...anyone like anything in particular?Will post some more plays later tonight

**HeeeHAWWWW** · 05-29-09, 04:36 PM

Tsonga to absolutely annihilate Rochus, just need to see what the under or handicap lines are.

**SBR Lou** · 05-29-09, 04:39 PM

Wozniacki is at -506 tomorrow Cirstea, I think I am hallucinating...

Can someone confirm this?

**Stacocakes** · 05-29-09, 07:11 PM

Tsonga will kill rochus.Shitty thing is it is -950

I have always had some trouble backing wozniacki.I have only bet her a couple of times ever.Don't really trust her for some reason.Definately won't break that trend with a -506 line

**EaglesPhan36** · 05-29-09, 09:58 PM

Originally posted by CrazyLou

Wozniacki is at -506 tomorrow Cirstea, I think I am hallucinating...

Can someone confirm this?

That's about what I see. Why? You all in on Wozniacki at that price Lou? I know you're not taking Cirstea.

**Stacocakes** · 05-30-09, 03:08 AM

Looking at the matches shortly and there doesn't seem to be much on the mens side worth betting unless you want to parlay a bunch of massive favorites. Out of all of the players that are over -1000 odds wise (Del Potro,Federer,Djokovic) there won't be any upsets.

Tsonga's odds are brutal at -825 but that is because he is playing rochus who has a horrible serve and is a midget.Tsonga's power will be to much for Rochus

Robredo is a very good clay court player and should be able to get by Maximo Gonzalez. Not much value in a line of -380 on Robredo though.I'm going to pass.If you want to add this to a parlay there shouldn't be a problem picking Robredo.

Roddick -445 over Gicquel - Roddick is known for being shitty on clay. The changes and dedication that Roddick has made to his game have translated into imporved play on clay. I don't think he will beat any of the top players this year at Roland Garross though. He should have no problems with Gicquel though. Career 2-0 record vs Gicquel but both results were on hard court

Monfils/Melzer - This is just one of those matches that is to hard to call. If I was guaranteed a clean bill of health with Monfils then I would take him in this situation since his odds are relatively low, -257, but with the uncertainty of his injuries I will pass on this match. Better to be safe then sorry.I've seen Monfils to many times lose the first set after looking fine and then all of the sudden he is moving around the court like he is going to die any second.

Haas/Chardy in an interesting match. Both players had a fairly easy first round match and then both players blew a 2 sets to 0 lead in the second round before winning the match in a decider. Chardy seems to have some trouble controlling his nerves infront of his homecrowd which may give Haas a slight edge.With that being said, I think the odds of CHardy -203 are way way to high in this instance and should be alot closer to a toss up. Stay away from this match unless you are taking Haas.Only way it will be worth it.

ON the womens side scrap Jankovic and Kuznetsova.Odds are ridiculous on both and unbettable.

CrazyLou likes Wozniacki at -530 but that price seems a bit to steep for me. Wozniacki is 1-0 career vs Cirstea but that result was on hard. Wozniacki will win this match but i'm going to refrain from betting the -530 favorite because its just to high with my likeing. There are some instances where betting a favorite at greater then -500 is profitable but that is usually with mens tennis and for certain individual players. With that in mind, Wozniacki is a no play at these odds for me.

Garbin/Razzano - Passing on this match. Don't want to risk losing any units on a toss up match like this, especially when Razzano is getting -273. No thanks

Dementieva/Stosur - Dementieva is 3-1 liftemine vs stosur but none of the results were on clay. What is interesting about this match is the low odds on Dementieva. She is only at -340. Dementieva is clearly the better player and is alot better then stosur on this surface. Stosur's career on clay is 25-24..UGLY. Why the low odds?Thats because in Dementieva's last match against Dokic the only reason she won is because Dokic suffered an arm injury. She was totally outplayed by Dokic in that match. Stosur doesn't have the clay court game nor the mental game to beat Dementieva here but i'm going to pass on this match because Dementieva is coming into this match playing poor and Stosur is coming into this match playing some decent tennis. The line reflects this uncertainty

Bondarenko/Radwanska and Dominguez Lino/wozniak are two matches I will pass on. Don't see anything of value in either match.Not worth the risk

Serena/Martinez Sanchez - Martinez Sanchezs record on clay in her career 83-35. Very very impressive. Neither player has played eachother. Serena was horrible in her first match of the French open but rebounded with a very impressive second round win. Everyone knows that Serena is not very good on clay so I am going to pass on this match because the odds of -421 on Serena is not worth the risk

**Stacocakes** · 05-30-09, 03:21 AM

Going to sleep on this for a bit then get up for the first matches of the day.Not going to pull the trigger on any of these matches as of yet.Might do some in-play betting once I have got a feeling of the matches.

Roddick/Serena/Monfils/Dementieva are probably the four matches that I would consider betting on but I don't feel amazing about any of the plays. These four parlayed pays +170 which isn't to bad.Would still probably be more comfortable with a roddick/serena/dementieva parlay which would pay pretty much even money. Sounds good to me.Will think about it

**Stacocakes** · 05-30-09, 03:52 AM

Only play of the day for me,besides live betting, will be Roddick/Serena/Dementieva parlay which pays -103

Good luck today guys

**Stacocakes** · 05-30-09, 04:11 AM

Added play:

Small individual play on Dementieva -340

Just want something to do right now since I stayed up for the tennis .This will keep me occupied.Didn't put that much on it though.Just for shits and giggles

**Stacocakes** · 05-30-09, 06:28 AM

Crazy matches today

Glad I played that parlay and sprinkled a bit more on dementieva.She lost of course.Got killed the first set, then the second set was full of breaks and rebreaks.Didn't even show up for the third set.Glad it wasn't alot that I put on her.

Haas wins the first two sets then gets a break in the third set in the early games and goes on to blow that break and the third set, then he gets broken to start the fourth set but I think he just got that break back so they are on serve in the fourth.Lots of sloppy service games on both the mens and womens side.

**cuteboy86hi** · 05-30-09, 07:02 AM

Samantha Stosur might be a man.Her shoulders and arms weren't of a woman.

**HeeeHAWWWW** · 05-30-09, 07:52 AM

I went on...

1 unit Gicquel +420 - oops, lost already. He was really good in previous matches, but today no power after the 5 setter vs Beck.

3 units Tsonga/Rochus under32.5 +110 - Rochus usually concedes a ton of aces, and against Tsonga that might be pretty painful. Rochus' record at slams above +150 is 0/12, and on all surfaces above +400 he's 0 from 28. Massacres are common when he's completely outmatched.

4 units Robredo -1.5 sets, -185 - Robredo is a robot against weaker players, wins around 85% on clay when he's more of a fav than -160. Does drop the occasional set at slams, but almost never drops two.

**SBR Lou** · 05-30-09, 09:37 AM

A few units on Wozniacki to romp today.

Also, Azarenka cashed.

**cuteboy86hi** · 05-30-09, 10:21 AM

tsonga outscored rochus.51 winners to 10

**HeeeHAWWWW** · 05-30-09, 11:02 AM

Cool, Tsonga under cashed, and robredo-1.5 sets about to cash too (after dropping first set, was nervous).

Djoko in a lot of trouble though.....

**Stacocakes** · 05-30-09, 11:03 AM

Fell asleep during the Roddick match and was going to take a nap for an hour but that turned into 3 hours or so.Wake up and Serena Williams is down 1-0 in sets, Djokovic is possibly on the verge of being down 2-0 in sets. What the hell is happening here...its like I am having a bad dream or something
Tsonga was such easy money.Wish I had stayed up for that and had some money on it.
5-4 Kohl serving for the second set to go up 2-0 in sets and his price is +116.Wow.Will DJO fold up the tent and tank the third set if he loses here or will he have the will to fight towards a fifth set.Might hold off on that for now.Kohl has been known to blow it in the past

**cuteboy86hi** · 05-30-09, 11:06 AM

any match links?
djokovic

**Stacocakes** · 05-30-09, 11:28 AM

Federer about to lose the first set to Mathieu unless he can break back.What the hell is happening today

**Stacocakes** · 05-30-09, 11:28 AM

DJO match here http://www.atdhe.net/7085/watch-gran...-roland-garros

**HeeeHAWWWW** · 05-30-09, 11:35 AM

Djoko slightly better, but he was already double break down by the time he woke up. Got one back, but not enough. No room for error now, one dropped serve and it might be him out.

Kohly choked serving for the set the first time, but held his nerve the second. Been fine in this set too - the big collapse he's prone too hasn't happened ....... yet.

Now Mathieu, now there's a choker :-)

**EaglesPhan36** · 05-30-09, 12:13 PM

I thought about taking Stosur, but her game isn't well suited for clay. Mostly thought of it because Dementieva was awful in her last match and probably got saved from defeat there because her opponent retired. Her loss opens up that bracket for Jankovic or Wozniacki IMO.

**Stacocakes** · 05-30-09, 05:51 PM

Very surprised Djokovic lost to Kohl.Horribly played match by Djokovic.He has these every once in awhile and he will lose to some player tha he shouldn't. Don't know if its the lack of concentration or to much partying, which is the rumor why he always has fatigue issues.
Federer came back from a set down and won of course.There was never really a chance for Mathieu to win the match and both new it.
Wozniacki goes down as a big favorite.Surprising.Seems she had an injury in which she needed to call an injury time out while trying to stay alive in the match and at 15-30 in the game

Looking ahead to tomorrow there looks to be some interesting matchups. The only ones that are really worth betting would be Murray/Cilic, Davydenko/Verdasco, Sharapova/Li,Ivanovic/Azarenka,Szavay/Cibulkova

Cilic has been known to be poor on clay but has had some good results thus far at the french open this year. His match though against Stepanek last round was absolutely horrible.The tiebreak in the second set was won by Cilic and all he did was win 2 points on his service.Horrible. If he plays that way versus murray tomorrow he will be destroyed. On the other hand Murray had some problems with Starace but rebounded from that match to defeat Tipsarevic in the last round. I favor Murray here and like that the odds are relatively low at -238. Not going to pull the trigger yet though

Davy/Verdasco should be another good match. I like verdasco's game on this court but at -180 that might be a little to high for my likeing.Will think about this one but definately leaning towards Verdasco

Sharapova/Li - They are going to keep giving me low odds on Sharapova and I am going to keep taking the bait ever time. It has worked thus far great.Going to continue on the sharapova train through this Li match and I am going to lock my bet in now at -112.Don't know if the line can get much better then that

Cibulkova/szavay - Going to pass on this match.Not worth it to risk money on either.I thin Cibulkova does have a shot though

Azarenka/Ivanovic - Ana has been playing some great tennis.Her ball toss is still all over the place but her ground strokes have been very good. I'm leaning towards Ana in this match but have yet to decide if I am going to take the plunge.Will think about it tonight

Good luck with your plays tonight guys.Hopefully the french open has been good to everyone's gambling account in its first week

**cuteboy86hi** · 05-30-09, 06:05 PM

Please discuss murray cilic a lil more.I have to go big on murray and i need some expert info on this one.Cilic is 6'6 so his movement won't be very good but that's only my assumption.What worries me a lil is that cilic hasnt dropped a set yet, although hernych and sela dont count much.

I am short of info please guide me through.

**Stacocakes** · 05-30-09, 06:18 PM

Heres some stuff for you regarding the Murray/Cilic match:

Career Murray is up 2-0 head to head.Neither result was on clay so really can't look to much into that. Cilic is rather weak mentally.He has never beaten a player in the top 5 in his career. Cilic is also rather poor on clay. His last match against Stepanek he won in three sets but he was broken many times by a Stepanek who was playing horrible tennis. Both were playing very bad its just tha stepanek played just a bit worse then Cilic and that is why he lost.

Murray is a good play tomorrow.By no means is he an "all-in" play or anything like that but he is worth a good sized play.

**HeeeHAWWWW** · 05-30-09, 06:40 PM

Originally posted by cuteboy86hi

What worries me a lil is that cilic hasnt dropped a set yet, although hernych and sela dont count much.

You're right, they don't, they're both clay muppets. Stepanek isn't, but he was beyond awful in his match - 3x as many errors as winners. Didn't even think that was possible. Even little Rochus only made 2x vs Tsonga today, and he got annihilated.

I rather look at his clay season form, where he always loses to the first decent clay player he meets. Bagelled and beaten by Fognini in Monte Carlo, Kohly in Madrid, Chardy in Munich, Monaco in Rome. He even dropped a set to Rochus, out of sheer laziness.

Personally I reckon anything you can say about Murray's weakness on clay, you can say about Cilic. In fact, when has Cilic ever beaten a top5 clay guy like Davydenko? Or even someone competent like Robredo? He hasn't, not even close, but Murray has this clay season. From the other point of view, you can look at who Murray loses to on clay. Del Potro (world no5), Monaco (arguably top10 on clay and a very awkward matchup for Murray), and Nadal. Rather more impressive than Cilic's list.

However, the worry for Murray backers will be that he deals up lots of short balls, and gets pulverised by the big Cilic weapons - a replay of the Del Potro loss. He's a far better player than Cilic though, so not sure it's strictly comparable. Still, this is a self-inflicted wound Murray is capable of.

Still not sure. I don't rate Cilic, he's mentally weak, and that's a pretty killer liability against a fighter like Murray, who has these big comebacks time and again (eg Cilic got bagelled by an on-fire Fognini, Murray was also 5-0 down but won the set anyway). Basically, Cilic is something between the level of players Murray has beaten, and those he has lost to. He definitely has weapons. He has potential on clay (won Roland Garros juniors), but has never done anything in the senior game. Will this be the breaktrhough for him? It would be bolt out of the blue imo.

ps sorry for length of post, bit stream of consciousness stuff! haven't decided either way myself.

**cuteboy86hi** · 05-30-09, 08:34 PM

Thanks heehaw and stacko.Gonna take murray now before the line goes up.

**Stacocakes** · 05-31-09, 05:46 AM

Following are my plays for tomorrow:

Going to play Andy Murray like many on this baord -240 over Cilic
Sharapova -112 over Li Going to continue to ride the sharapova money train

Looks to be about it for today. Good luck with your bets guys

**HeeeHAWWWW** · 05-31-09, 05:51 AM

2 units Nadal-Soderling under27.5, -108 : see their last two matches. Nadal really doesn't like Soderling because of their history.

0.5 unit Davydenko 3-1 +700 : value on the davy side, but 3-2 unlikely cos of davydenko's injury/fitness issues.

Decided to skip Murray-Cilic, I make it 70/30 so no value. Would have gone the over36.5, but the line has gone up to 38, which is a lot harder to cover - 64 46 63 62 fails for example, and there's next to no chance it covers in three sets.