Stacco, you shouldn't let that forum effect your plays if you think it's correct. They don't have the high jinx effect that SBR does on same plays at least in my experience. Sure, there are some, but I believe TI was on Fernando Gonzalez yesterday as well and that worked out well.
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Ya seems to be lots of good stuff on that forum.I am thinking of maybe signing up.I think its like 30 bucks a year or something.Rogue says it has alot of good information on it
I was on the fence about that Stosur match and probably wouldn't have normally bet it but I followed the play to get some action in the morning and because there was such a consensus.Wish I had more on it.Cirstea really didn't have a chance
Serena gets beat by Kuznetsova.Thought that match was going on forever.
Who do you like to win on the mens and womens side EaglesPhan? I think its going to be Federer and Safina by the looks of it.I dont' think Stosur or cibulkova will be able to stop a Safina-Kuznetsova match. I am thinking Federer vs GonzalezComment -
I was fortunate to have been a member of TI before they went to a pay site. I am on it for free so long as I provide tips that meet their approval I think. Haven't been bounced yet. If anyone ever wants any info from that site on stats and gets me a PM ahead of time, I'll be happy to look stuff up for you guys if I have the time.
Well I thought from Jump Street, Safina was the one to beat on the women's side. Still looks that way, although Kuznetsova could give her a run if she makes it. She's the only one to beat Safina on clay this year. Men's, Federer is going to be getting some ridiculous chalk if he advances today. You have to favor him as the remaining players assuming it's Del Potro, Soderling and Gonzalez have I think one combined win against him and that was Gonzo on carpet I think in 2007. I think Gonzalez would have the best chance to win based on form and experience. Del Potro has the best overall game to beat him, but Federer has treated him like a red-headed step child every time they've played. That Australian Open beat down is still fresh in my mind and Fed killed him on clay in Madrid last month. Del Potro would need to show some mental strength that I haven't seen from him yet in big time matches to win.Comment -
Agreed EaglesPHan
Just saw this stat regarding Monfils third set record when losing the first two sets:
26 vs fish UO08
36 vs davy Wim07
36 vs djoko RG06
16 vs horna AO06
16 vs ancic wim05
06 vs canas RG05
36 vs rochus AO05
With that being said, looks like this one will be over quicklyComment -
Both the Stosur and Federer bets cashed for today. Got back what was lost on the previous day. Interesting matches tomorrow.I'll have some ideas regarding both matches later on in the day.
Hope everyone made some money todayComment -
You thunk on tomorrow yet? The more I think about it, Stosur for a small play makes sense perhaps. Kuznetsova might be exhausted physically and mentally heading into this. I'm just not sure. Thinking maybe Stosur straight up, but cover it with a Safina/Kuznetsova parlay.Comment -
Stosur looked pretty good today. Both are having to play back to back days but Kuznetsova's match was alot harder plus she rolled her ankle pretty bad in that match. Wonder how the ankle is feeling right now. Has anyone heard anything ? Stosur's serve has also been really good so far this tournament so that should give her another advantage tomorrow. I like the odds of +280 but I think I am going to stay away from this match. Good luck with the Stosur play Eaglesphan
As far as Safina goes, I think she will win the match but -560 yikes. I want to pick her but I can't at those odds.
Looks like I will just watch the matches and see if I can get an in-game bet inComment -
No updates on Kuznetsova that I have found, but another reason perhaps why taking a small play on Stosur is decent. My book didn't offer set bets for tomorrow, at least not as of right now when I have to make my choice. So no back door cover with Kuznetsova in 3. Went small on Stosur straight up at +270.Comment -
Well both women's matches ended the way the odds dictated though Kuznetsova had another long match. I didn't want to get involved in either match at those odds that were listed so I guess its good to get away from the matches for a day every once in awhile.Didn't get a chance to look at the odds for the final but I am likeing a 3 set match that is won by Safina
As far as the mens side, loving Gonzalez and Federer. I thought the odds on gonzalez would be a bit higher so I am very pleased to see Gonzalez as -130. Federer's odds started at -280 and have drifted to -312 now. Shitty.Was hoping to get it around -280.Will wait a bit to see if the line comes down a bitComment -
I would expect the Federer-Del Potro line to move some more as the match gets closer tomorrow morning. I don't think you're going to get under -300 for Federer at this point unless someone drops a ton on Del Potro. Maybe get daggerkobe to go all-in for zillion dollars to move the line. LoL.Comment -
If you really want to bet Fed, willhill still have -278.Comment -
Plays for today :
Gonzalez -125
Federer -310
Best of luck everyoneComment -
Soderling bashing the ball.Takes the first set.Not a very good sign for Gonzo backers
Still lots of time left though so hopefully gonzalez regroups here
Soderling playing out of his mind all tournament.Don't know how he is keeping this up.Has got to be confidenceComment -
Soderling up 2-0 in sets. Totally outplaying gonzalez. Going to take a miracle for Gonzalez to pull this out OR a Soderling choke. Entirely possible given his past historyComment -
Huge comeback by Gonzalez to tie it at 2 sets all.Gotta fancy him winning the fifth as well.Looks like soderling is running out of gasComment -
Yeah Yeah...
Huge acting from Gonzalez at 4-4 and he get's away without even a warning...fair play from the Chilean...got the opponent out of rhythm...and the stupid french crowd is behind him with such an act....nice nice....Comment -
Here we go Gonzo, here we go! Got the break early in the 3rd.Comment -
What a disapointment having gonzo up a break in the fifth and losing that and the match. Tough loss to take.
Federer line has moved like crazy.Its at like -380 right nowComment -
wow reverse psychological workedComment -
They have a bet on betfair of "Will there be a 6-0 set in the match? No -2100" Who would bet that?Comment -
CrazyLou that's who.
Hoping Federer wins either 3-0, 3-1 to help me recover my Gonzo losses and end up fairly even for the day.Comment -
Hope Federer ends it fast as wellComment -
What do you think about the ladies final tomorrow? I have Safina at +200 for one unit on a futures wager. Kuznetsova is +195 right now. If I take Kuzy for a unit, I guarantee a one unit profit on the outcome of the match. Thinking of just letting it ride though. One of my major rules in tennis betting was not to bet on a match involving two Russians. Safina has been the more solid of the two, but Kuznetsova does know how to beat her.
I also think the value for anyone taking tomorrow's match might be sprinkling a little on the outcome. 3 sets for Kuzy at +430 and Safina at +230. I think with nerves, etc. it might go 3.Comment -
I like Safina and the over tomorrow.I think it will go three sets
Federer sloppy as hell today but up a break in the fourth so hopefully he pushes this to a fifth set
You should come in the sbr chat eaglesphan if you are still around and sweat out the match with the other federer backers hahaComment -
Some sloppy play from Fed but he manages to grind out a five set match and is heading to the french open final. Curious to see what the line will be....hopefully its not to big or else no play.
7 and a half hours of matches today...hope everyone made some money.Im exhaustedComment -
Soderling and fed both won.Another better day.Really confused about the final.Maybe skipping it wud be better for me.Comment -
betfair suggests it's -400, but I think we'll get -333 somewhere.Comment -
I said it earlier today. If Soderling stays above +300, that is superb value in my book. Federer's got all the experience, blah de blah de blah, but Soderling is on the run of a lifetime and all the pressure for the Final IMO is on Federer. Head-2-head records do mean something, but He knows this is his chance to win at RG. If not now, then likely never. There will never be a more perfect set of circumstances for Federer to win here. Nadal gone. Djokovic gone. Saved his ass somehow vs. Haas. Rallied again today against Del Potro. Soderling and Federer met about three weeks ago in Madrid. Roger won in straights. Soderling had nothing on his serve that time. Soderling though has beaten Nadal, Davydenko & Gonzalez - all of whom are solid if not fantastic clay court players. So if you're telling me I can have +300-something on a guy who has KO'ed those guys going up against a capable, yet clearly beatable Roger Federer? I'll bite for some action.
Soderling pretty much let Gonzalez beat himself in the 5th set. There's a real chance Federer could crack in that sort of environment as well.Comment -
Bodog +400 :-)
I want to see the weather more - forecasts saying cold/damp with chance of rain. That'll slow the courts right up.Comment -
Wow looks like the women's final wasn't even close judging by the scoreboard.I totally slept through the morning today and missed my chance to watch and bet on this match. I wanted the over and Safina so I guess this was one of those times that sleeping in actually paid off.
What happened to Safina?Did she just play really bad or was Kuznetsova on fire?I thought the match would be alot closer then that geez.
Congrats to all that made some money on that.Kuz had great odds if I remember correctlyComment -
I missed it too Staco. Just looking at the stats, Safina's serve seemed like the main problem. She had 7 double faults and only won 53% of the points off her first serve. You won't win many matches at all with that, nevermind a Slam final. Kuznetsova was winning 67% off her own 1st serve. Everything else was pretty even. Errors at 22 each. Winners at 11 and 12.Comment -
Well this is the third year in a row now where I have been telling everyone that "this is Roger's year for the French". Obviously the previous two years predictions blew up in my face but who would have thought that ROger would have his chance this year to get that elusive French Open playing of all people Robin Soderling. Geez.This match has dissapointment written all over it.Sad thing for Federer is that when he wins the french open tomorrow everyone will say for the rest of time that he won it but he didn't beat nadal to get it.Guess there is really not much he can do about that.
I have a feeling this match is going to be like the Murray/Federer final at the US open where Roger destroyed an Andy Murray who was not into the match at all.I'm hoping I am wrong but its just the gut feeling I have about it.
Not sure if I am going to lay the -370 on Federer in this match.Might put a little bit on to make the match interesting but i'm not going to go crazy on it or anything.Just can't see Soderling winning this French Open.
Best of luck tomorrow guysComment -
dissapointing tiebreak for Soderling in the second set and after a 6-1 first set, this match is turning out like I kinda figured when I posted last night. Since its raining the match is playing at a faster pace and I think that is throwing soderling off his game and he is probably getting pissed off. I expect a fast third set and an easy win for Roger.Glad that Roger is going to win but it would have been nice to have an epic type match like a fed/nadal wimbledon typeComment -
Fed wins easily in straight sets.Deserves this.Would have been so much better had he been able to defeat Nadal in the final to silence everyone but this will do
Easy win to cap off the French Open for gamblers. Hope everyone made some money
Wimbledon in a couple weeks
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