Stacocakes French Open Thread

**shantystar** · 06-01-09, 10:57 AM

Originally posted by EaglesPhan36

I'll be taking Benneteau in the 1st round. I'm hoping that Tsonga will be a huge favorite, but definitely shouldn't be on this surface. Still since the casual fan looks at rankings, we might get a nice price here. JB is on a roll this week in Austria, similar to his roll last year coming into Roland Garros. He has the clear experience advantage at Roland Garros and has made nice runs 2 of the last 3 years. This is one that jumped off the page at me to take a shot at. Really hoping Benneteau will be offered up around +200. Thinking it'll be more like +175 though if we're lucky.

hummmmmmmmm!

**Brock Landers** · 06-01-09, 10:59 AM

Del Potro pounding JW in the 3rd set, 4-0, this thing is about to be over.

**Stacocakes** · 06-01-09, 11:49 AM

If anyone wants to bet roddick/monfils match but also needs money to bet other shit tonight, don't bet the match.It won't finish tonight and your money will be tied up all night

**Stacocakes** · 06-01-09, 11:49 AM

Break Del Potro.Serving for the match up 5-4

**Stacocakes** · 06-01-09, 11:50 AM

Jankovic with the break and is serving out her match as well. Looks like Crazy might have got lucky with his tennis pick

**Stacocakes** · 06-01-09, 11:52 AM

Cirstea breaks back Jankovic while serving for the set. 5-5 now :O

**SBR Lou** · 06-01-09, 11:52 AM

Originally posted by Stacocakes

Looks like Crazy might have got lucky with his tennis pick

**Stacocakes** · 06-01-09, 11:53 AM

GSM Del Potro. GOod match by him
I heard Tsonga has never played a 5 set match so you knew he was running out of gas

**Stacocakes** · 06-01-09, 11:54 AM

Crazy I think you will still be good.Jankovic should win

**HeeeHAWWWW** · 06-01-09, 11:54 AM

Grrr, annoying. 4 sets as I thought, but tsonga capitulating when behind in sets one and three killed the over. Still had a shot at the end there, needed two more holds from tsonga and it would cash, but he screwed up (horrible dropshot into net with the court open).

**Stacocakes** · 06-01-09, 12:01 PM

see anything you like tomorrow Heehaww?
Do you ever go into the sbr chat room?You should come by some times.Some tennis talk in there

**EaglesPhan36** · 06-01-09, 12:02 PM

Tomorrow boys - I was originally going to go for Davydenko, but now looking at it - Soderling seems like the better deal as money is already pushing Davydenko upward in odds. Soderling also has a good head-2-head against him (including 2 clay wins) and from what I saw in the Nadal replay, was pretty cool under pressure yesterday. Not really sure yet, but thinking about this now more so. Definitely like Gonzalez over Murray.

**Stacocakes** · 06-01-09, 12:05 PM

Love the gonzo play eaglesphan especially as a dog
Soderling has value but you always wonder when a player like Soderling has "the match of a lifetime", will there be a massive letdown the next match.Have seen it happen so many times.Makes me seriously consider Davydenko in this spot.Though laying -195 with Davy is never something that should be recommended. Still lots of time to think about it

**Stacocakes** · 06-01-09, 12:25 PM

This jankovic match is going on forever.Cirstea has had so many chances to end it.Just some bad errors
This is like watching two people with no arms fight geez

**Stacocakes** · 06-01-09, 12:32 PM

Jankovic goes down.Unbelievable. Didn't see that one coming
Match took so long that there is really no point in starting the monfils match today.Probably only an hour or so of sun left

**cuteboy86hi** · 06-01-09, 01:00 PM

Stosur winning too
great day this one

**Stacocakes** · 06-01-09, 03:31 PM

Glad to see your making some money Cuteboy86

A look at tomorrow:

Soderling/Davydenko - Career head to head records favors Soderling 3-2.Soderling won the last two matches between the two and both matches that they have played against eachother on clay. The one thing I am worried about with Soderling here is that almost every time a player pulls off a huge miracle upset in a tournament the next match is a big let down and that player plays miserable and loses. I can see this happening here. The value on Soderling +189 is so big and tempting though. Will think about this a bit more before pulling the trigger on Soderling if at all

Gonzalez/Murray - People are betting murray as news is coming out that Gonzalez is not fit to play. He pulled out of the doubles competition and supposedly did not practice today. Some people are saying that its to get ready for the big match with Murray and others are saying its because he is sick/injured.Really makes it hard to make a pick for this match.Which side do you believe? I wanted to bet Gonzalez but now I am starting to have second thoughts. Odds movement dictates that more people think he is sick/injured then people that think he was resting

Safina/Azarenka - I like Safina to win this match but I am leaning more towards an over 20.5 games bet for this match.I think this match has 3 sets written all over it. In these big matches with Safina and fellow "russian" players the matches almost always go three sets because there are lots of bets being made...umm I mean because the competition is so fierce.....ya thats it. Over 20.5 -105 looks like the play to me

Sharapova/Cibulkova - Sharapova is 2-0 vs cibulkova in there careers, both on clay. Given Maria's past matches at the french open here this will surely be another nail biter till the end. I'm going to take the better player here in this match and past history is on my side so it sounds like a good play. Factor in that she is only favored at -137 and it sounds like a good play to me.

What do you guys like for tomorrow? Hopefully everyone made some money today

**EaglesPhan36** · 06-01-09, 03:45 PM

I hate when players pull out and there's no definitive reason. Too much guesswork as to what it is. Could be a smoke screen for all we know. Unless I read something from the lips of Gonzo that says he is ill, I still will take him. If he's "sick" enough to pull out of doubles, etc. than I would expect if he's not fit, retirement would be likely before he gets rolled in straight sets by Murray.

**Stacocakes** · 06-01-09, 04:01 PM

The thing that concerns me about gonzalez is that he didn't practice today either. If they were both healthy I would favor Gonzalez in this match because its on clay, though it would still be very close. These injury concerns might make me take a look at Murray since he is only -150. Its a good price.If the pick is wrong you won't lose to much. Something to definately think about.I'm hoping some more information comes out between now and tomorrow.

**HeeeHAWWWW** · 06-01-09, 05:22 PM

The Sod-Davy matchup history is interesting - both losses were in Monte Carlo, and Davy appears to have been playing very poorly before and after in 06, and not that well in 07. Slow courts there might be expected to hurt Sod, but Davy is pretty aggressive too, allbeit further up the court. Maybe he struggles to hit through an opponent with the slow surface, and errors a lot (this happened against Murray this year). Soderling by contrast can sit further back, and generate enormous pace through the air on his groundstrokes.

Davy's clay masters record generally isn't very good, quite surprisingly, he's only ever made three semis, with bad losses in particular to Ancic in Hamburg06 qfs, Kiefer Hamburg 08 3rd, Robredo Rome08 3rd, Melzer this year in Rome 2nd, as well as the Soderling losses in ** 06/07. Some tricky draws on top of that, but still.

**cuteboy86hi** · 06-01-09, 06:41 PM

Ok a question now.
General public picks the more popular or high ranked player right?And murray is high ranked, odds favourite, plus a bigger name than gonzalez so more people will bet on murray than on gonzo.This means that as the game time approaches line for murray will get lower and lower and for gonzalez it will get better.

So should an underdog be picked as late as possible and the favourite as early as possible?

**Stacocakes** · 06-01-09, 07:08 PM

You could look at it that way cuteboy.Lots of things influence price moves.The Murray line has been getting higher and higher because there are injury concerns for Gonzalez.As soon as there is a hint of an injury possibility there is alot of market panic and the non-injured player is bet.
Lots of people also bet the better player like you said, without looking at how good that player is on the particular court.Years ago when roddick was shit on clay and always going home early, most would just see Roddick vs some scrub and hammer the roddick line without thinking about how he plays on clay.
I've noticed many times though that if you do want a favorite and it seems like everyone is betting on him then get the price early because if you wait till match time you will get ****ed with a really big price. Another thing to watch for is when a good player is playing a late match in the day.If there is a big upset like Nadal in the morning all of those people that lost money on nadal will want to chase and try to get there money back with the matches later on in the day so you will usually see the favorites in the late matches get pounded right before match time.

**Stacocakes** · 06-01-09, 10:10 PM

Plays for tomorrow:

Andy Murray -150 over Gonzalez
Sharapova -123 over Cibulkova
Safina/Azarenka over 20.5 -105

Good luck tomorrow guys.Going to be some good matches

**EaglesPhan36** · 06-01-09, 10:40 PM

Balls of steel backing Sharapova with Lou!

I do like her chances though. Sharapova is going to lose playing how she's played, but I don't think Cibulkova is the player who is going to make her pay. Too young. Too inexperienced. Not enough weapons to truly hurt Maria. Obviously I hope you jumped ship to the wrong side on Murray because I'm in on Gonzalez.

**Stacocakes** · 06-02-09, 07:38 AM

Horrible starts for both Davy and Safina both losing 6-1 in there respective matches. Was really hoping Safina won a few more games in the first set because only winning one is going to be making this over games bet alot harder to get. Safina should take the second set here if all goes to plan.

**robzilla** · 06-02-09, 07:49 AM

im on gonzalez too. he plays up injuries that arent that serious. he twisted his ankle while signing autographs, but then beat Nadal? c'mon.

**Stacocakes** · 06-02-09, 08:04 AM

Two breaks up in the second set...no way. Wow I didn't see this coming. Can't believe Safina is going to win the second set and a third set will come.
Told you guys this shit is fixed for these russian players.In the first set it looks like Safina has never played the game of tennis before and then all of the sudden in the second set Azarenka forgets how to play tennis and Safina is back to being the number one player. Whatever
Just serve out this set Safina and let her have one more game and the over will be guaranteed

**Stacocakes** · 06-02-09, 08:33 AM

Safina/Azarenka over 20.5 -105 hits easily

**Stacocakes** · 06-02-09, 08:55 AM

Great win by Soderling.He killed Davy. Wow. As I said above I knew that +190 had value but just didn't have the balls to bet it.Thats how it goes sometimes

**EaglesPhan36** · 06-02-09, 08:57 AM

Yeah I guess this is Soderling's tournament of a lifetime.

**Stacocakes** · 06-02-09, 09:05 AM

Safina closes it out in three.Going to be hard to stop her here.When she is on she is on

**EaglesPhan36** · 06-02-09, 09:10 AM

Agreed there. This is her best chance to win a Slam. She's better on the surface than everyone who is left in my opinion.

**HeeeHAWWWW** · 06-02-09, 09:26 AM

That was something special from the Sod - even better than the Nadal performance imo.

**EaglesPhan36** · 06-02-09, 09:36 AM

If anyone is watching, can you pass along information on Gonzalez and how he looks. Stuck at work today and won't be watching other than the scoreboard.

**Stacocakes** · 06-02-09, 09:39 AM

Gonzalez has a break point.Looking good so far to me
Sharapova on the other hand,not looking good.ABout to be bagelled in the first set