Stacocakes French Open Thread

**EaglesPhan36** · 05-22-09, 01:05 PM

I'll be taking Benneteau in the 1st round. I'm hoping that Tsonga will be a huge favorite, but definitely shouldn't be on this surface. Still since the casual fan looks at rankings, we might get a nice price here. JB is on a roll this week in Austria, similar to his roll last year coming into Roland Garros. He has the clear experience advantage at Roland Garros and has made nice runs 2 of the last 3 years. This is one that jumped off the page at me to take a shot at. Really hoping Benneteau will be offered up around +200. Thinking it'll be more like +175 though if we're lucky.

**HeeeHAWWWW** · 05-22-09, 02:44 PM

I'll be taking Hewitt, he looked good in Munich, whereas Karlovic's game is way off recently - and he's got a horrendous record at slams, usually first round exits.

Will also be taking Melzer, he's had some good results last few weeks and Roitman is TERRIBLE. Injuries galore this year, can't win a match unless it's the world number 500, or a fix (Calleri match in Houston), and he got bagelled last week in the Kitzbuhel qualis by Hajek (who is himself completely useless). He's also really, really bad against lefties. -333 is a gift.

**Stacocakes** · 05-22-09, 03:00 PM

hmm Hewitt is -140 to -160 favorite. I will pass on that. Might look at karlovic as a dog.His serve is so good that he will have a good chance to beat hewitt as a dog.

Soderling at -500 ish is not worth it will pass

Daveydenko at around -600 ish? Taking Koubek. Davey is injured and corrupt so +500 or so is a good shot in the dark for Koubek

wawrinka's odds are way to big.Not taking him

Murray -650 over Chela? hmmm Murray hasn't been playing that well recently but still thought the odds would be higher.He is not that great on clay though. Thinking about this

Safin should not be -430 against anyone. He is the most inconsistant player out there

Seems Pinny only has about 5 matches up right now so I will wait until more of the lines are out to make some plays

**Stacocakes** · 05-22-09, 03:03 PM

Murray is brutal on clay and Chela is hot right now. Might stay away from that one just to be safe

**EaglesPhan36** · 05-22-09, 03:17 PM

Chela got beat by Oscar Hernandez in Austria. That is all I gotta say. Oscar Hernandez is a clay court lifer, but Chela used to be somebody. And Hernandez got abused by Benneteau today. My own opinion about 1st rounders - parlay your top seeds if you're confident, there is NEVER a need to lay -600 or more on a single match. NEVER. Upsets do happen and I'd much rather lost a 4 selection parlay and maybe $100 vs. $600 or more on one match.

**SBR Lou** · 05-22-09, 03:26 PM

Karlovic is undoubtedly the better play.

**Stacocakes** · 05-22-09, 03:30 PM

Where ya been crazy?You going to be around the chat for this tournament?
I agree I like the Karlovic more and more as time goes on.Definately won't be a straight sets thing or anything because Hewitt is a fighter
Agree EaglesPhan. Laying that much on a match is not worth it.You will win most of the time but the one time you lose cripples you for awhile
Gicquel -231 over Schuettler?Not worth it at all. Mentioned above that I like Gicquel here and still do but not worth the price
Berdych -175 over Bolelli reflects Berdychs inconsistant play and his potential injury. Pass

**Stacocakes** · 05-22-09, 03:41 PM

Something that appears to be easy money...will nadal lose a set at the french open? Yes -450
I am betting that for sure

**Stacocakes** · 05-22-09, 09:29 PM

Well lines are out right now. Here are some of my leans for now.....will think about these potential plays another night before pulling the trigger

MOnaco/Baghdatis - Was really hoping this line would be lower for Monaco so I could bet him but I don't trust him as a -368 favorite so I am passing on this match

Fish/Gonzalez - Fish is very bad on clay and its gonzalez's best surface. I like gonzalez +161 in this match

Gicquel/Scheuttler - -227 for Gicquel is to much.I like him in this situation but will again pass

Mathieu/Recouderc - Mathieu at -736 over someone?I dont know about that.One of the biggest chokers on tour. Not really familiar with Recouderc though. WIll look more into this. Could be a small play on the dog in this.

Hewitt/Karlovic - Love Karlovic here and at a +150 dog...sign me up

Davydenko/Koubek - -750 for a player that is injured and corrupt...hell no.Koubek looks to be the play here

Safin/Sidorenko - Safin is a big favorite here at -406.Not to be trusted

Montanes/Tipsarevic - Like montanes on this surface over Tips and at a night price of -145.

Gaudio/Stepanek - Gaudio may be worth a play here at +385. A very good clay court player

Lots of leans here but not much that is solid. Sure a player has good VALUE in this instance but does value necessarily mean that betting the other player is a good move? Sure players like Davydenko SHOULD win but anything is possible. NOt sure if I am going to bet the value plays.Its not value if it loses
Will decide tomorrow what I am playing for sure

Anyone have any further ideas on any of the first round matches?

**HeeeHAWWWW** · 05-23-09, 10:09 AM

Seppi is always a good bet around 1.6ish, he's won 85% in his career at those odds. Garcia-lopez is short on acclimatisation time too, he's still playing in KItzbuhel (altitude) at the moment.

**meganie** · 05-23-09, 11:43 AM

Wow, Lu gets +200 odds against world class player Montcourt.

Guess aftereffects of his retirements lately.

I'm taking:
Odesnik +460: Simon shouldn't get these odds, not after his performance this week, he seems to lack confidence atm.

Kendrick +185: I'm not buying the hype around Brands, imo he has an excellent serve, a pretty good forehand, but clearly lacks movement and his backhand is erratic. If Kendrick manages to move him around and not letting Brands play his attacking tennis, he has a pretty decent chance.

Tursunov +183: Even an injured Tursunov, who hasn't played a single clay court match this year has a chance against Clement. Only time to bet Tursunov is when he's a dog.

Ljubicic +107: Pretty even matchup, but I like the h2h and the fact that Ljubicic went far last year. Plus he's in better form than Ferrero.

Bolelli +149: This match is gonna go atleast 4 sets. I like my chances with Berdych being injured recently.

Gulbis -120: Both guys have big serves, but Gulbis' groundstrokes are better (when he's on). Neither one is in good form, both like to choke away matches they should win, but Gulbis made it far last year and has played a little bit better lately.

Zverev -110: Zverev played some great doubles matches this week and is the steadier player. Starace can play very good, but doesn't do that very often.

Tipsarevic +126: Always a little worried how Tipsarevic will play even if he's in great form, but price is too good to pass. He played some great stuff in Düsseldorf, painted the lines frequently and basically schooled Kohlschreiber.

And some set bets (odds not out yet, but some matches that I like, odds should be around +200 or so):
Mathieu not to win 3-0: Has Mathieu ever won a match without choking around?
Cilic not to win 3-0: Cilic makes way too many errors on clay, not impressed with his recent performances.

On a side note: Eagles, how about reopening the contest just for the FO?

**Stacocakes** · 05-23-09, 12:38 PM

Hewitt is getting hammered right now.Opened at -136 or so and is up to -184 on Pinnacle. Also according to rogue tennis insights has Hewitt 14-0 to win over Karlovic. Everyone seems to be against Karlovic.Think I might pass on this match now

Gaudio/Stepanek - Gaudio was at +385 yesterday and is now down to +309. Seems like everyone thinks Gaudio has a chance since he is very good on clay. I'm not likeing the odds as much as I did before at +385. Might not play this now

**Stacocakes** · 05-23-09, 12:50 PM

Meganie totally agree with Simon. He has been playing like shit recently.Definately not worth the -500 tag on him
Tursunov has good value but he is brutal on clay and hasn't played a clay match yet this year. Clement is shit though so I agree if you bet Tursunov at +183 there is value in that because its basically like getting +183 in a coin flip match.
LJubicic has been playing well. Ferrero has his mind on other things so he has been on the decline. Showed some flashes of coming back recently but then went back to his shit ways. Ljubicic is definately worth a look.
Bolelli is worth a chance.Berdych is the kinda guy that cries when he is down a set or two and gives up so this "injury" will just give him more motivation to do that. If Bolelli can take the first set off him Berdych will probably over exaggerate his injury and tank the rest of the match or retire
Gulbis is worth a look but the odds are perfect for this match.It is a toss up.I'm passing on it.
Zverev and Starace....can't depend on either player with money. No play for me
Tipsarevic over Montanes?Maybe on a different surface I would agree but Montanes is very good on clay. Tips is hit or miss when he plays.Once in awhile he is great but the shitty tips shows up way to often. I would say its a Montanes or no play for me
Mathieu not to win 3-0 That guy is a peice of shit. I can't put money on that guy anymore.He chokes with the best of them
Cilic probably won't win 3-0 either
Are you sure you wrote that down correct?A player not to win 3-0 would probably be a minus bet not a +200 bet because you are betting for all outcomes except 3-0.
Best of luck Meganie.I like your picks

**meganie** · 05-23-09, 01:20 PM

Originally posted by Stacocakes

Are you sure you wrote that down correct?A player not to win 3-0 would probably be a minus bet not a +200 bet because you are betting for all outcomes except 3-0.

Yeah, you're right, probably an even line since both are heavy favs.

Originally posted by Stacocakes

Best of luck Meganie.I like your picks

You too, Staco.

**HeeeHAWWWW** · 05-23-09, 02:14 PM

One useful thing I've found in past years are the different court speeds: Lenglen is slow, court2 is fast. We have tomorrow's order of play, only one this might affect is Gulbis-Querrey on 2. I'm avoiding that one though, tempted by Querrey but Gulbis has just reunited with the coach that brought him all his success as a youngster. No idea what that'll do to his form, so skipping.

Anyway, I'm thinking court choice might matter especially for Tipsy-Montanes, both of whose clay results are heavily dependent on court speed (eg Montanes won extremely slow Estoril). Their previous two meetings bear it out, with Tipsy winning on the quickish Barcelona courts last month, but getting absolutely splattered at slow Hamburg last year. Basically Tipsarevic needs a certain minimum court speed, or he gets frustrated at his inability to win rallies with his flat groundstrokes, and starts error-ing all over. Montanes is the opposite, and prefers a slower court where he can run down everything, rally forever and draw the error. Dusseldorf (v fast) suggests good form for Tipsy coming into this.

Also took some Benneteau to beat Tsonga, was +300 when it opened but now +200 or so. Tsonga is just horrible on clay, whereas Bennetau has had some decent results here (and same as last year, he's just woken up with some form in the tournament immediately preceding Roland Garros).

Also tempted by Ljubo to beat JCF. Little worried about the classic Ljubo letdown after a good Madrid though (eg Miami after IW).

Hernandez to beat Minar looks good, his recent form has been immensely profitable, and has a 4-0 h2h. Unfortunately -200 though.

Rumour has it Tursunov has withdrawn, although not confirmed.

**Stacocakes** · 05-23-09, 03:20 PM

Good points Heehaww. As far as I can see Tursunov is still in the draw. Monfils might back out at some point as well.Daveydenko is also injured.Might be worth a play to oppose these guys in the matches then
A fast court would probably favor Querrey because he has a decent serve and thats about it.Staying away from that match for sure
Rumor has it Simon is "tired" which has moved his line from -500 to -419 in about two hours.
Benneteau has a great chance in that match. Kinda wish that I bet it before it dropped though.Will make a a game time decision on that. Simon is 1-5 in French open matches wow
LJubicic is a bitch as well. Not the greatest on clay.He has been playing well lately though but he can't be trusted.Been burnt to many times in the past on him
Zvonareva has withdrawn on the womens side. Shes a good player

**Stacocakes** · 05-23-09, 04:16 PM

Plays for day 1 :

After much debate here is what I am going to play for day 1. I am going to do most of my betting in-play as always but those plays don't really help anyone out. Here are my following pre-match bets

Karlovic over Hewitt +175 Everyone and there dog are taking Hewitt. Karlovic is 3-0 career head to head versus Hewitt.Both aren't really playing at an amazing level at the moment but I am hoping that Karlovics serve can be the difference in this match.I by no means think this will be a cake walk for either player so I am going to take this bet just because I am getting the +175.If it was any lower I don't think I would make the play.

I have the nadal to lose a set Yes already bet at -450. Odds have already moved on Betfair now to -600 give or take.Glad I got at least something early unlike the first round matches I was looking at that I didn't get and the lines have all moved against my favor. I was thinking of betting both DJO and Fed to make the final at +170 in hopes that one of them would make it and I would be guaranteed some profit but I still haven't pulled the trigger on that bet.Might just pass on that one.

Still think if I had a gun to my head and had to pick that both Safin and Simon win there first round match-ups. Might parlay them in some way closer to match time.Still have a long time for the odds to drop on them even more.Sidorenko isn't even doing that well in the challengers but Safin is one of those players that can beat himself without the opponent doing anything.

Good luck tonight guys. 12 hours to the first match

**Stacocakes** · 05-23-09, 04:20 PM

If any of you guys are degenerate enough to stay up I will be up watching these matches throughout the next two weeks so if you guys want an in-play thread we can bullshit in there.I am guessing that most people have to get up in the morning though so staying up all night isn't an option haha

**Stacocakes** · 05-23-09, 09:02 PM

Safin line is moving the way I don't want. I think I will pass on both Simon and Safin. Will just play karlovic and the nadal to lose a set.

Good luck today guys

**HeeeHAWWWW** · 05-23-09, 10:11 PM

Mine for tomorrow:

5 units Murray -600. He may not be a top guy on clay, but he needs to be actively beaten by a quality opponent, like del Potro or Monaco (both top10 clay courters imo). Chela lacks the weapons, just as Robredo did in Madrid.

1.5 units Polansky -106. Petzschner sucks on clay, Polansky was apparently awesome in qualification.

For monday/tuesday:

4.5 units Melzer -300. Roitman is awful beyond belief now. He's got a 1/18 career record at 3.25+ (a retiral), 0/10 career in best of 5, and got bagelled by Hajek in his last match - entirely typical of his form this year.

2 units Benneteau +300. Nothing more complicated than Bennetau on clay > Tsonga on clay. Only negative is possible tiredness, but the organisers will probably make this a Tuesday match to help out.

2.5 units Seppi -150ish. Very bad matchup for Garcia-Lopez, thus the 3-0 h2h. Seppi is ridiculously reliable around these sort of odds. On hard/grass/clay he's won 25/28 between -200 and -115, which is simply insane - he's an automatic pick around those odds.

Didn't end up taking Hewitt cos it moved so much, and at -190ish I'm not interested. Of Monday's games, only tipsy-montanes interests me. Montanes is a cash machine beyond about -200, and as a dog (2nd most underrated guy on tour behind Seppi), but strangely not between -200 and evens. Tipsy has the game if he's in the mood - maybe I wait and bet inplay.

Good luck all :-)

**Stacocakes** · 05-24-09, 12:05 AM

Good write ups HeeHaww you've sold me. Where did you get there lines?Murray -600?He is like -850 now.Did you get them when they came out? Good call if you did.Like your melzer play but unfortunately its at -410 now for me.

You going to be around tonight watching the matches?

**HeeeHAWWWW** · 05-24-09, 05:17 AM

Originally posted by Stacocakes

Good write ups HeeHaww you've sold me. Where did you get there lines?Murray -600?He is like -850 now.Did you get them when they came out? Good call if you did.Like your melzer play but unfortunately its at -410 now for me.

Pinnacle mainly, just got on early.

**Stacocakes** · 05-24-09, 07:51 AM

Great start.Karlovic goes up 2 sets to 0 as a +178 dog and he ends up blowing the match losing in five sets. Not a huge loss but it would have been nice to start the tournament off with a win.

**HeeeHAWWWW** · 05-24-09, 09:00 AM

Yeah, unlucky. Ivo annihilates the aces-in-a-match record (and that was set on grass too!), and somehow loses. Was so close in that 3rd set tiebreak, but was pretty exhausted after that. Aces dried up too - had 41 in first 3 sets, ended up on 55.

Unfortunately, nature of the beast. In 5 sets Ivo has 12 losses from 12 attempts. Just not physically capable of it.

Bookies took a pounding on this one inplay btw - nearly everyone on the betfair forum switched to Hewitt when he won the 3rd set tiebreak, at around +160ish. Very tasty. Idiot bookies clearly knew nothing about the players involved, were just setting odds by "normal" clay standards.

**Stacocakes** · 05-24-09, 01:14 PM

Nice hit on Murray.Very surprised with Polansky because that line was hit so hard that by match time he was -190 so everyone was on him to win.
I wanted to put a bit on the murray match but unfortunately I passed out and missed the murray and simon match.Blah
Onto day 2

**Stacocakes** · 05-24-09, 03:15 PM

Sharapova's line has come down since originally coming out.It was in the -300's a couple days ago and it can be had now at -275. I feel that Sharapova, though rusty, can easily beat Yakimova.I'm getting this bet in now. Will look at the rest of the board later.

**meganie** · 05-24-09, 05:13 PM

Odesnik was sooo close to winning, neverthless an ok day, went 2-2.

Any word about the Tursunov retirement yet?

Adding:
Köllerer -122: Köllerer is in better form lately, made it relatively far in Kitzbühel and had some other good tournaments this year. Massu is 3-0 in h2h, but the last meeting was a three setter last year. Massu is clearly on his way down, so I don't weigh the h2h too high. Köllerer is currently the better player, so I'm taking him.

Kubot +200: And again I've the feeling that the price is more based on hype. Troicki's serve is far too inconsistent and so are his groundstrokes to justify the price.

Tomic +900: I don't care how bad Tomic plays. Kohlschreiber's play is like a rollercoaster currently, he plays one excellent set and makes error after error the next one. He doesn't deserve these odds.

**Stacocakes** · 05-24-09, 07:17 PM

Odds are still up for Tursunov but there are reports that he has already withdrawn from the French Open. Usually the gambling sites would be right on top of this shit.Its wierd to read that he has withdrawn yet you can still bet him......
I'm still likeing Sharapova at -275.Yakimova shouldn't put up much of a fight.Against a better player I might pass on Sharapova though so I will probably only bet her for a couple of rounds
Leaning towards Montanes as well at -113 over Tipsarevic
Also possibly Massu at +116 over Koellerer

Still have 8 hours to decide so will be back.

**HeeeHAWWWW** · 05-24-09, 08:33 PM

I'm going to leave Tipsarevic-Montanes for inplay. The average serve statistics yesterday were scary fast, and it's looking like another hot day tomorrow. If that's the case, then it just needs Tipsarevic to be in the right mood and he can hit Montanes off court, as he did in Barcelona. He's so unpredictable though, no idea who will turn up. Maybe he has an emotional letdown after the team tennis stuff in Dusseldorf, sometimes that happens with Davis Cups. Who knows? He's a headcase these days.

I like Koellerer, but bit worried by his lack of experience at this level (never played a best-of-5). Massu's form is horrible though. Hrrrm

**EaglesPhan36** · 05-24-09, 09:35 PM

That Koellerer-Massu match is a no touch. Massu is miserable this year, but Koellerer outside of a couple wins last week at home in Austria as HeeHaw points out will be in his first main draw at RG. If Massu had any form, he'd be an overwhelming favorite based on his decent track record here - but '09 has been unkind to him. I can't run away from this match fast enough. Hope you guys betting on this one have plenty of Rolaids!

**Stacocakes** · 05-24-09, 11:16 PM

added plays :

Hernandez -220 over Minar. Hernandez is coming off a final at Kitzbuhel just on the weekend. In the better form at the moment.Minar has a tonsilitis issue as well. Hernandez 4-0 lifetime vs minar and a pretty good clay court player.

**meganie** · 05-25-09, 07:19 AM

Originally posted by EaglesPhan36

That Koellerer-Massu match is a no touch. Massu is miserable this year, but Koellerer outside of a couple wins last week at home in Austria as HeeHaw points out will be in his first main draw at RG. If Massu had any form, he'd be an overwhelming favorite based on his decent track record here - but '09 has been unkind to him. I can't run away from this match fast enough. Hope you guys betting on this one have plenty of Rolaids!

Going to a fifth set now, Köllerer won the last two pretty clear, kinda makes me wonder, if Massu has fitness issues.

**HeeeHAWWWW** · 05-25-09, 05:00 PM

Hrrrm, fairly good so far, Murray and Melzer won ..... although the latter turned out to be a classic Roitman fix so all the analysis was a waste of time. Got some 3-0 before the match when the money piled on (the straight win ended up around -800 at pinnacle).

Polansky lost in 5, really annoyed I so casually put that on. Looking at my notes on that one they're so much less comprehensive than the rest. Nothing more than a hunch bet, which is stupid. Grrr.

Still got Seppi and Benneteau for tomorrow. The former is about as certain as you get at around -150 imo. The latter looks terrific with the cool/damp weather forecast for tomorrow, cos Tsonga's serve will be far less deadly. It's one of the last matches on though, just hoping it's not rained off completely.....

Will also go for 2.5 units Ljubicic at -103. Good h2h against Ferrero, and much better recent form. Slightly slower clay with the weather suits him too, because it means he can't be hit past so easily in rallies, and it barely affects his serve because it's such a classically excellent clay delivery (check how good it was in Monte Carlo).

Others I am tempted by: over on reynolds-monfils, cos of the monfils injury situation. Maybe Potro handicap also, although haven't analysed it much - just noticed Llodra getting bagelled last week by that complete hack Montcourt. Depends what the line is really.

ps nice little thing I found you can do with the Oncourt software I hadn't noticed: you can export to excel, then do all sorts of analysis, eg the average handicap difference at different bands of odds, very nice

**EaglesPhan36** · 05-25-09, 05:07 PM

I like Ljubicic a lot tomorrow. Hoping he can bust my cherry for this year's French and get me a win. Benneteau is likely my dog play for tomorrow. Still searching. F-ing Oscar Hernandez couldn't have laid this turd last week when I picked against him.