ATP/WTA Favorites Service Point Strategy

**TechnicalTrader** · 11-07-16, 05:27 AM

Originally posted by spankmythighs

Ya the odds were heavily juiced on Murray but between the 2 of them I think I squeezed out 4 or 5 units. I like the reverse too when odds are really juiced. Something to look at. Gonna play some Challenger events tomorrow. Keep it rolling.

Good stuff. Where can you view single service points during Challenger events? I can't seem to find any sites

**spankmythighs** · 11-07-16, 09:21 AM

Im thinking of doing a 3 loss horizontal even/odd trigger for serve favs and a 2 loss vertical for receive dogs on Challenger and ITF. Thoughts?

**spankmythighs** · 11-07-16, 09:22 AM

Cant find any Challenger data.

**TechnicalTrader** · 11-07-16, 10:09 AM

Originally posted by spankmythighs

Cant find any Challenger data.

Yeah, it looks like that data isn't tracked, or at least the public doesn't have access to it.

**spankmythighs** · 11-07-16, 05:57 PM

Created a simple spreadsheet with Serve on one side and Receive on the other for heavy favs of a match. Still only using the 1st 4 points of any game and tracking odd and even points. Trigger after 2 consecutive even or odd points lost on serve and trigger after 3 consecutive even or odd points lost on receive. So far so good

**TechnicalTrader** · 11-08-16, 02:59 AM

Originally posted by spankmythighs

Created a simple spreadsheet with Serve on one side and Receive on the other for heavy favs of a match. Still only using the 1st 4 points of any game and tracking odd and even points. Trigger after 2 consecutive even or odd points lost on serve and trigger after 3 consecutive even or odd points lost on receive. So far so good

Sounds good. Would you happen to know what the service points odds are for a strong favorite playing a lower ranked player during the early stage of a tournament? Are we getting 1.41 odds are are they closer to 1.25??

Thanks

**spankmythighs** · 11-08-16, 08:02 AM

Lowest I have seen is 1.28. But usually between 1.36 and 1.50. Did some Challenger yesterday and it worked quite well.

**TechnicalTrader** · 11-08-16, 09:12 AM

1.28 is not worth the chase. Way too much risk on a 3 game chase if you ask me.

I'm not touching Challenger games because I can't access any backdata. I am using a similar strategy which is working quite well:

1) Identify a player with a win %, 1st serve rate above 70% with at least 3 service games played.
2) Bet on first serve of next service game, risking no more than 1 unit (2% BR) with odds higher than 43%
3) Chase to bet C
4) Only play one chase at a time!!!

I'm up 14 units today:

Bet A) 9-5
Bet B) 4-1
Bet C) 1-0

**TechnicalTrader** · 11-08-16, 09:58 AM

Bet A) 11-8
Bet B) 7-1
Bet C) 1-0

One more bet and I'll call it a day. 20 units in one day isn't bad at all but then again so is 19. Spankster, you should look in to the above system. It's tough to back test because you can't view in game serving %'s online but it seems to be working great. thank you again for introducing me to in-game tennis betting!

**spankmythighs** · 11-08-16, 10:30 AM

So are you only doing 1st serve of a service game? So if the first serve loses wait for next service gm?

**TechnicalTrader** · 11-08-16, 10:35 AM

Originally posted by spankmythighs

So are you only doing 1st serve of a service game? So if the first serve loses wait for next service gm?

Yep, but I'm very, very selective! Not chasing juice nor am I playing low 1st serve win%'s.

**TechnicalTrader** · 11-08-16, 11:25 AM

Wow, what a day it was... Up 33% on 22 bets, yeah I added another three. Getting 1.50 to 1.57 odds makes it a lot easier to chase. I'm rather surprised that it worked so well on the Challenger games.

I'll see what I can do tomorrow, but heck... a day where I add 33% to my BR is always a good day.

BTW, you can also just wait for a player to hit 70% on their service point and then chase. that also worked fine!

**SourSausage** · 11-08-16, 12:53 PM

Hey gents, what would be a good site that will give you those kind of in-game stats on the players for serve %'s etc? Checked a few and they aren't providing those statistics.

**TechnicalTrader** · 11-08-16, 01:08 PM

I use bet365. Again,I have no idea if this data is saved and if so I'm not sure if the public has access to it. I'd love to program a bot which gathers this kind of info but my a$$ is semi IT-illiterate.

**TechnicalTrader** · 11-08-16, 02:21 PM

So I decided to go at it again, this time betting to win only 1% per chase and only playing odds between 1.44 and 1.53. I ended up going:

a) 4-1
b) 1-0
c) 0-0

I'll take 5% in 30 minutes any day!

Today, + 27 units:

Bet A) 17-10
Bet B) 9-1
Bet C) 1-0

**spankmythighs** · 11-08-16, 03:28 PM

Thats a good day my friend. Some great brainstorming and ideas coming together. Nice work ��

**TechnicalTrader** · 11-09-16, 03:11 AM

Originally posted by spankmythighs

Thats a good day my friend. Some great brainstorming and ideas coming together. Nice work ��

I placed three bets on a few ITF games this morning with similar results. I'll be busy for the next few hours but will play around with it again this afternoon (EU time).

My updated performance:

Bet A) 18-20
Bet B) 11-1
Bet C) 1-0
It looks like playing ONLY the B bet could be the quickest and easiest way to cash in. In other words;

1) Wait for the player who is serving to lose the first point of his service game, while she/he maintains a "Win % 1st serve" over 70%, while odds are above 1.40.
2) Risk to win max. 1.5% of BR. In other words if your BR is $1'500.00 and you are getting 1.5 odds, risk no more than $45.00 on your first bet
3) Chase twice

**spankmythighs** · 11-09-16, 09:49 AM

Originally posted by TechnicalTrader

I placed three bets on a few ITF games this morning with similar results. I'll be busy for the next few hours but will play around with it again this afternoon (EU time).

My updated performance:

Bet A) 18-20
Bet B) 11-1
Bet C) 1-0
It looks like playing ONLY the B bet could be the quickest and easiest way to cash in. In other words;

1) Wait for the player who is serving to lose the first point of his service game, while she/he maintains a "Win % 1st serve" over 70%, while odds are above 1.40.
2) Risk to win max. 1.5% of BR. In other words if your BR is $1'500.00 and you are getting 1.5 odds, risk no more than $45.00 on your first bet
3) Chase twice

Love this idea. I was fiddling with it last night and noticed I would start an A bet and lose and the % would drop below 70% making the B bet harder to pull the trigger. Also are you playing multiple chases within a match or just 1 and done?

**TechnicalTrader** · 11-09-16, 10:31 AM

I play the chase right around 70% and here is why...

When the first serve % is over ca. 75%, you tend to get crappy odds around 1.35-1.40 and these are easy to lay off. The player is most likely overperforming and the juice is too high.

Taking games players with %'s under 65% tends to lead to higher odds, but the player just isnt performing.

The strategy of taking it at 70% and sticking with it as it drops are a) you get better odds on the way down and b) he whould be due to turn it around... Just my two cents.

**TechnicalTrader** · 11-09-16, 11:03 AM

Not very active today. Up about 15% of BR.

**spankmythighs** · 11-09-16, 12:43 PM

Are you only using it for match favs also?

**TechnicalTrader** · 11-09-16, 12:55 PM

Originally posted by spankmythighs

Are you only using it for match favs also?

No, not at that level. Too many upsets in my opinion to have clear dogs and fav's. I've also dropped the A bet which makes things a lot less stressful but slower. On a good day, I think I should be able to pound out 30 bets max. Using an A bet,I could easily place 70-80 a day.

**TechnicalTrader** · 11-09-16, 01:04 PM

Originally posted by TechnicalTrader

No, not at that level. Too many upsets in my opinion to have clear dogs and favs. I've also dropped the A bet which makes things a lot less stressful but slower. On a good day, I think I should be able to pound out 30 bets max. Using an A bet,I could easily place 70-80 a day.

And here is why I'm dropping the A bet:

Scenario 1, A,B,C Bets:
Profit Target 1% of BR
Bet A) 1.44 odds, risking 2.27% to win 1%
Bet B) 1.44 odds, risking 7.43% to win 3.27%
Bet C) 1.44 odds, risking 24.34% to win 10.71%
Total % at risk: 34.05%

In this series,I "could" risk up to 34.05% in order to win 1% of BR... Insane, but this is how a chase works!
Scenario 2, B,C Bets:
Profit Target 2% of BR
Bet A) 1.44 odds, risking 4.54% to win 2%
Bet B) 1.44 odds, risking 14.87% to win 6.54%
Total % at risk: 19.42%

Risking 19.42% of BR in order to win 2% is just way more reasonable. This is also something I suggest we use on the "normal" system.
The chances of me losing a B bet is still, there and is just as high as losing a C bet from the ABC chase.

**spankmythighs** · 11-09-16, 06:36 PM

Got burnt on 3 C bets today. Im gonna stick to my original plan but keep in mind the 1st serve %.

**TechnicalTrader** · 11-10-16, 02:34 AM

Did you wait for a failed first service point?

It was working fine for me yesterday... Which games did you lose?

**TechnicalTrader** · 11-10-16, 02:30 PM

Here's something to think about:

During last year's World Tour Finals in London the system performed very well going 30-7-5-0. 5 C bets might not sound like a lot but losing only on of them with average odds of 1.35, you'd completely wipe out your winnings with a -56 unit hit. Assuming one unit is $100, your one hit loss would be $5,600. Ouch... Here are the numbers:

	Bet A	Bet B	Bet C
Djokovic	0	0	0
Federer	3	0	0
Murray	3	0	1
Nadal	2	0	1
Berdych	0	0	1
Djokovic	2	1	0
Murray	2	0	1
Wawinka	0	0	1
Federer	1	2	0
Djokovic	1	0	0
Nadal	3	1	0
Murray	0	1	0
Djokovic	1	0	0
Federer	0	2	0
Djokovic	0	0	0
	30	7	5
			42

Here is what a chase would look like at 1.35:

	$ Risked	Odds	Profit	Total Risk
A	USD 285.71	0.35	USD 100.00	USD 285.71
B	USD 1'102.04	0.35	USD 385.71	USD 1'387.76
C	USD 4'250.73	0.35	USD 1'487.76	USD 5'638.48

Now, let's drop the A bet. We'd be at 7-5-0. I know, 12 units is nothing compared to 42, but here is where money management will keep you alive. Let's assume our new target is $350 per chase rather than $100, we are only chasing one game, so there is room to risk more. Here is what a two game chase would look like:

	$ Risked	Odds	Profit	Total Risk
A	USD 1'000.00	0.35	USD 350.00	USD 1'000.00
B	USD 3'857.14	0.35	USD 1'350.00	USD 4'857.14

Risking $4857.14 to win $300.00 is a lot safer than chasing $100.00 with $5'638.48. I can also handle a single hit and bet with a lot less stress. Here is what the system would've done using both a 3 game and 2 game chase:

3 game chase) Risking $100.00, profit = $4'200.00 (largest risk = $5'638.48, five times)
2 game chase) Risking $350.00, profit = $4'200.00 (largest risk = 4'857.14, five times)

I am going to play the refined system this weekend, where I wait for odds or evens to miss three times in a row (btw, i also only took the first four points of the set in to consideration).

I hope this helps!

**spankmythighs** · 11-10-16, 04:39 PM

Very indepth. You have put alot of work into this. Thanks for all the stats and suggestions. I will be playing this weekend

**spankmythighs** · 11-10-16, 04:40 PM

Just working on a roulette strategy using roulette evolution right now lol.

**TechnicalTrader** · 11-10-16, 04:48 PM

Uh oh. Be carefull there... I don't mess with Roulette or luck based games, just doesn't really turn me on.

**spankmythighs** · 11-10-16, 05:55 PM

Ya Im way more interested in this

**TechnicalTrader** · 11-11-16, 05:53 AM

Some more food for thought:

This year's US Open performance:

(3 game chase)
Bet A) 49-37
Bet B) 24-13
Bet C) 11-2

Units won: 84.00
Units loss: -112.76 (1 chase would cost 56.38 units)

Result= -28.76 units

(2 game chase)
Bet A) 24-13
Bet B) 11-2

Units won: 123.00 (target units per chase 3.50)
Units loss: -97.14 (1 chase would cost 48.57 units)

Result= 34.86 units

**TechnicalTrader** · 11-13-16, 02:05 PM

3-2-2-0

up 6 units on Djokovic, Garcia&Plisova and Murray/Soares

The original system is up 7 units, the tweaked system is up 14 units. I only played the second system once, which puts me up 9.5 units.

I'll be all over the Raonic match later today.

**TechnicalTrader** · 11-14-16, 11:43 AM

World Tour Finals, Signals:
Djokovic: 2-0-0
Raonic: 0-0-0
Nishikori: 0-0-0

World Tour Finals, Doubles:
Bryan/Bryan: 0-0-0
Murray/Soares: 1-1-1
Herbert/Mahut: 0-0-0

3-1-1

Up next:
Kontinen/Peers
Murray

Side note: Monfils saw a C bet loss, that would've been a huge early hit. Stay on the favorites, do not mess with the dogs!

**TechnicalTrader** · 11-15-16, 08:31 AM

Kontinen/Peers: 0-0-0
Murray: 2-0-0
Bryan/Bryan: 0-0-1

5-1-2

**TechnicalTrader** · 11-15-16, 10:49 AM

Monfils: 1-1-0

6-2-2

Original system: +10 units
revived system: +14 units

Up next:
Dodig/Melo
Djokovic