ATP/WTA Favorites Service Point Strategy

[TechnicalTrader]

Dodig/Melo: 0-0-0
Djokovic: 1-2-0

7-4-2

Original system: +13 units
Revived system: +21 units

Taking B bets and chasing only once seems to be the way to go. It is also a lot easier to bet and less stressful.

This bad boy is up 21 units in only three days of play! I can't wait for a few majors and some grand slams.

[TechnicalTrader]

Kontinen/Peers: 1-0-0

8-4-2

Original system: +14 units
Revived system: +21 units

Up next:

Murray
Herbert/Mahu
Cilic

[TechnicalTrader]

BTW; Murray was 20-7-0 at the US Open and Ausi Open. Last year he went; 5-0-0 at the ATP World Finals.

I will play the normal system on his games.

[TechnicalTrader]

Murray:3-1-0

11-5-2

Original system: +19 units
Revived system: +24.5 units

Next up:
Herbert/Mahu
Cilic

[TechnicalTrader]

Herbert/Mahu: 0-0-0
Cilic: 3-0-0

14-5-2

Original system: +21 units
Revived system: +24.5 units

up next:

Bryan/Bryan
Djokovic
Murray/Soares
Raonic

[Flea Hotel]

I don't understand this... Is there a pick on the Raonic/Thiem in here somewhere? Sorry, I'm a slow adult.

Herbert/Mahu: 0-0-0
Cilic: 3-0-0

14-5-2

Original system: +21 units
Revived system: +24.5 units

up next:

Bryan/Bryan
Djokovic
Murray/Soares
Raonic

[TechnicalTrader]

I don't understand this... Is there a pick on the Raonic/Thiem in here somewhere? Sorry, I'm a slow adult.

Play Raonic. Read the rules in the OP.

[TechnicalTrader]

Bryan/Bryan: 0-0-0
Djokovic: 0-1-0
Murray/Soares: 1-0-0

2016, World Tour Finals
15-6-2

Original system: +23 units
Revived system: +28 units

I was busy this afternoon and missed the Djokovic match, super mad I missed that B bet...

[TechnicalTrader]

Raonic: 0-2-0

2016, World Tour Finals
15-8-2

Original system: +25 units
Revived system: +35 units

[spankmythighs]

New year cant come soon enough. The season is gonna be epic. Are you still doing the first serve bet and only taking 70% serving favorites? Let me know what you got goin on. Thx man

[TechnicalTrader]

Nope, way too time consuming for me to do right now. I enjoy playing the B bet the most but chasing only once.

[TechnicalTrader]

New year cant come soon enough. The season is gonna be epic. Are you still doing the first serve bet and only taking 70% serving favorites? Let me know what you got goin on. Thx man

Something else I'm looking in to but don't really have time to do in depth backtesting but here it is:

Variables)

1) Only play strong fav's or highly ranked "1st serve points won" serving players.
2) Wait for serving player to drop two first game points.
3) Chase once and only once!
Again, this might not even work...Still need to get backtesting done.

[TechnicalTrader]

I laid off of the early doubles game because there was no clear favorite.

Up next:

Murray
Lopez/lopez
Nichikori

[spankmythighs]

So what is the actual revised now?

[TechnicalTrader]

Wait for B bet.

Current game: If Murray loses 2nd point of 8th game, play 4th

[TechnicalTrader]

Murray:

Raonic: 1-1-0

2016, World Tour Finals
16-9-2

Original system: +27 units
Revived system: +38.5 units

[TechnicalTrader]

Lopez/Lopez: 1-1-0

up next:
Nishikori

[TechnicalTrader]

Awesome find!!!

Up until now, I've only been able to backtest ATP and WTA games.... All other events simply do not have the "Point by Point" tab.

Well, just add this to the URL and you can view each point!

#point-by-point;1

http://www.tennis24.com/match/fw2aMNAO/#match-summary

http://www.tennis24.com/match/fw2aMNAO/#point-by-point;1

This is huge and will allow us to backtest Challenger games also!

[spankmythighs]

Nice find man! I have been testing an even/odd 2 consecutive loss and then betting. Its phenomenal!

[TechnicalTrader]

Nishikori: 3-1-0


2016, World Tour Finals
19-10-2

Original system: +31 units
Revived system: +42 units

[TechnicalTrader]

Nice find man! I have been testing an even/odd 2 consecutive loss and then betting. Its phenomenal!

Isn't that exactly what we are playing?

[TechnicalTrader]

Kontinen H. / Peers J.: 0-0-0
Murray: 3-0-0 (Raonic had a B game score, I played it but won't add it to the tracked plays)

The Murray games' score is 3-4 in the third set. i'm not taking any ore bets on that match.

Reasoning behind playing a dog: 1) Raonic is an outstanding server and 2) He was dominating at the time. I considered him a fav when I took the bet.

2016, World Tour Finals
22-10-2

Original system: +34 units
Revived system: +42 units

Next up:

Murray / Soares
Djokovic

[TechnicalTrader]

Murray / Soares: 0-2-0
Djokovic: 0-0-0

2016, World Tour Finals
22-12-2

Original system: +36 units
Revived system: +49 units

Up next: Djokovic

[TechnicalTrader]

Here's a quick summary of yesterday's Challenger/Men's matches:

a:7-4
b:2-2
c:2-0
d:0-0

Original system: +11 units
Revived system: +14 units

I would strongly advise to only play top 150 ranked players. The rest of them are just way too unpredictable. I'd also recommend to wait for a C game and only chase twice, risking to win 4% of BR (total cash at risk will be ca. 35-40% of BR). The likelihood of these armatures to go 6 odd or even (first 4) points without scoring is slim. Playing that system, you would've been up 8 units with almost no risk. Easy money while the rest of us are working our asses off crunching NHL/NBA/NFL/etc numbers...

[TechnicalTrader]

Kontinen H. / Peers J.: 2-0-0
Klaasen R. / Ram R.: 1-1-0

I played that Klaasen/Ram B game because they were clear favorites at the time.

2016, World Tour Finals
25-13-2

Original system: +40 units
Revived system: +52.5 units

Up next; Djokovic but if Murray wins the first set, I will play both of them until one of them becomes a clear dog. Let's see if I can surpass 55 units!

[TechnicalTrader]

Bam!!!We finally got nailed! But we survived!

Djokovic: 0-1-0-1
Murray: 0-0-0

2016, World Tour Finals
25-14-2 and 1 loss

Original system: +16.94 units (1 loss = -23.06 units)
Revived system: +30.33 units (1 loss = -25.67 units)

Luckily, Djokovic was already struggling when he dropped his series which caused the odds to rise from 1.37 to 1.53. A C game loss at 1.33 would've been quite a hit.

I might set a tournament threshold, where as soon as the system hits X amount of units,I shut it down. All in all, my BR grew a little under 30%. I'm looking forward to testing some Challenger matches soon.

EDIT; see post 133

[TechnicalTrader]

Challenger Men, Singles; Astana2

Nishioka is rank 101 while Chen is ranked 254. I am going to play Nishioka here but wait for a B signal.

[TechnicalTrader]

After reviewing yesterday's games, I realized that I made a mistake in post 131, it turns out I played it incorrectly and there wasn't a failed bet!

Djokovic: 1-0-1-0
Murray: 0-0-0

2016, World Tour Finals
21-13-3

Original system: +37 units
Revived system: +56 units

[TechnicalTrader]

Here's a quick summary of today's Astana 2, Challanger games, where ONLY fav's would've been played:

4-3-0

Original system: +7 units
Revived system: +10.5 units

I'll play the Andria and Columbus games today and report back later. This system is up well over 100 units over the last two, three weeks. If this keeps up, I'll request to shut this thread down... LOL

Yesterday's Challenger results:

6-3-1

Original system: +10 units
Revived system: +14 units

[spankmythighs]

How goes it? Been super busy

[TechnicalTrader]

Going good, system seems stable.Nothing really worth posting about. I think my B bets come in on an average of every 25-30 bets which is great considering I can afford to lose one of every 12 series while getting odds around 1.4. I've noticed that playing +200 ranked players isn't really a huge issue because the odds you usually get are around 1.6. If you were to play the two game chase, you can afford to drop one of every 8 and still be up, while playing +200 ranked players.

I just strongly recommend not to play a 3 game chase with them. Just way too risky.

I'll track the Davis Cup and see how it goes.

[TechnicalTrader]

Davis Cup November 2016

November 25th:

Cilic
Del Porto (although I might also play Karlovic)

November 26th:
Odds not available yet

[TechnicalTrader]

Cilic: 2-1-0-1 (one loss,-37 units on the B bet)
Del Porto: 0-0-0

a) 2-2
b) 1-1
c) 0-1

Original system: -34 units
Revived system: -33.5 units

Up next:
Davis Cup Doubles game, odds not yet available

[TechnicalTrader]

Got bored and decided to play this system on the Nishi/Federer match. Worked like a charm and added a good 10% to BR, winning 7 chases while playing to win 1.5% / BR with each chase. Only one chase reached leg C. Here are the results, I'm done for today:

A: 3-4
B: 3-1
C: 1:0

[exoticus]

Have you done this in Murray's game today, he lost 4 straight first points on service. Doesn't this mean you would have wiped your bank?