Aus Open WTA leans

**frugalgambler** · 01-25-16, 02:16 PM

Btw, I somehow missed the "guaranteed lock on Makarova" thread. If not, I would not have tried to fade the forum with Makarova 2-0. These lock threads never work. Gotta give props to Konta, she showed some nerves but she also showed a lot of determination. A new Bartoli, sort of.

**frugalgambler** · 01-25-16, 07:32 PM

A pretty slow start from CSN, but this is her style. Not much is separating these players. I expect CSN to storm back into the match. 4-1 right now. Also, no sign of injury for CSN. As I expected, that injury was a ruse to stop Gavrilova's momentum. If anything, CSN is much more spry and looks better from the baseline now.

**xdodger19** · 01-25-16, 07:42 PM

CSN plays pretty clean, no shenanigans,

**reedy** · 01-25-16, 07:48 PM

Doubles just killing her. Looks tight

**frugalgambler** · 01-25-16, 08:39 PM

Blah, CSN played like a turd. Plenty of chances to stretch the 2nd set, but lots of stupid UEs and DFs. Reedy was right. Seeing how this is going, I am dropping 0.4u on Maria's ML @+360, purely as a hedge of my Serena's futures. I do not see how Agga can beat Serena in the semis (nor Maria for that matter). Not a great quality match it was.

**xdodger19** · 01-25-16, 08:46 PM

don't hedge,

**frugalgambler** · 01-25-16, 08:52 PM

Nah, I already did. I think Maria should be ~+200-250 in this spot.

Lotsa turdlike matches in late stages. Of the matches I watched, the best rallies were in the first set of Beck-Kerber, and some flashes in Bencic-Sharapova and Aza-BZS. Btw, the next two days are likely going to be indoors.

**frugalgambler** · 01-25-16, 08:54 PM

Adding 0.1u on Sharapova's futures @+1200, purely based on yisman's words.

**frugalgambler** · 01-25-16, 08:56 PM

Statistically QF is the worst stage for Serena and Novak actually @Aus Open.

**w@lt** · 01-25-16, 09:03 PM

Originally posted by frugalgambler

Adding 0.1u on Sharapova's futures @+1200, purely based on yisman's words.

**frugalgambler** · 01-25-16, 09:16 PM

LOL, here we go again. Looks like Maria is falling apart. Oh well.

**frugalgambler** · 01-25-16, 09:56 PM

Pretty good 1st set from Maria, but that line clipper that went for Serena at 5-4 30-40 was a killer. Hmm. Does not look good for the over though.

**w@lt** · 01-25-16, 09:58 PM

Originally posted by frugalgambler

that line clipper that went for Serena at 5-4 30-40 was a killer

That was fukking brutal.

**frugalgambler** · 01-25-16, 09:59 PM

Hmm, Serena looks to be throwing up. Muscles in heat ?

**frugalgambler** · 01-25-16, 10:01 PM

Not that hot though. Let's see if Maria can rebound. I am not holding my breath though, too many DFs. Reedy was probably right again.

**frugalgambler** · 01-25-16, 10:39 PM

Not that hot though. Let's see if Maria can rebound. I am not holding my breath though, too many DFs. Reedy was probably right again.

**frugalgambler** · 01-25-16, 10:43 PM

Props to reedy. Good fight but Serena saved 2BPs at 4-4 and then got that killer net cord at 5-4 30-40.

-2.1u on the day so far. Kinda expected, not a good day to back the dogs, I am fully expecting Nishi to bomb too. Now, let's hope Agga does not find her inner Vinci to spoil Serena's future. I'd be shocked if that number does not drop to -130-150 after this match.

**frugalgambler** · 01-26-16, 01:30 PM

-3.1u on the day. My first bagel (in this thread not ever), I think. Backing dogs left and right was not a good idea yesterday. Some nice tennis by Feds last night, but then again he owns Berdman. Nishi was more or less punked. I was lucky to hedge out a bit at 0-2 3rd set, but I am not counting that in this thread.

I am gonna add 2u on Serena @-133 (5d). The number is just not making sense to me. Do the books know something I don't ? WTF is going on ? She is 8-0 vs Agga, 17-3 vs Aza, and Aza has never beaten her at a Slam. Aza stole her hitting partner a couple of months ago, btw, so I expect Serena will be extra motivated. It is not like Aza is showing new facets to her game, her main strength is still her motivation and b.tchiness. Just mathematically this does not make sense: Serena is -625 vs Agga right now, and I expect she will be at least -200/-250 vs Aza; her historical odds vs Aza are averaging about -300. Anyhoo. 5d actually kept Serena at -120, right after her SF, no idea why I did not jump on it then.

As for the matches today, I have some smallish leans, but I want think a bit first. I'll probably post an hour or two before the matches. I actually gotta do some work today. GL folks.

**frugalgambler** · 01-26-16, 04:55 PM

OK, let's throw some more darts. Keeping it fairly light, not that confident in these, we'll see what happens. Thankfully, there are fewer matches left, so I can't go into too big of a hole.

First a little degen parlay
Aza ML/Murray -1,5 sets 0.75u to win 0.7u
I am obviously more worried about Ferrer, but let's go by history. Ferrer has no weapons to hurt Murray, including his stamina b/c Murray should be able to run with him all night. My only worry is that Murray might have a lot on his mind right now.

Kerber +5@-110 0.75u
Kerber showed a lot of resiliency in the first set vs Beck, when Beck was playing out of her mind. Still, Aza owns Kerber and has just destroyed her two weeks ago, but it is hard to beat the same player convincingly twice over a short span. This is a de facto SF. Hard to see the winner losing to Konta or Shuai. Aza might be already looking ahead to the final. I think it will be closer than most people think.

Konta o21.5 @-110 for 0.75u
Hard to go against reedy here, but I think Shuai should be able to stay with Konta. Yeah she played a lot of tennis at this Slam, seven matches already. But this is a huge match for both players, the winner probably at least doubles her lifetime winnings and secures a cush spot in top-25 for the rest of the year. Nerves could be a major factor though. I would not be surprised to a see an almost bagel here. Gamewise, I think these two are evenly matched: Shuai has a bigger game but Konta is a steadier player.

Monfils o4.5 sets 0.25u@+288
Just have a gut feeling this one will be a doozy.

**xdodger19** · 01-26-16, 07:18 PM

If Angelique beats Azarenka she would have a real good shot at making the final.
I like the +5 games play here.

**frugalgambler** · 01-26-16, 07:38 PM

Shaky start from Aza so far. I hope she can turn it around, and yet Kerber covers the spread. Kerber is a bit of a headcase though. If Aza can somehow string a couple of games together, a meltdown is not out of the question.

**frugalgambler** · 01-26-16, 08:07 PM

Huge hold at 4-3 and Kerber takes the 1st set. I expect the 2nd set will be tight, Kerber 2nd set is at @+230, could be attractive. Kerber likes to play with the lead. Let's see if Aza proves she is as good as everybody is saying. So far Kerber looks better in long rallies.

**frugalgambler** · 01-26-16, 08:10 PM

LOL, I seem to be wrong again with my live-betting darts. Kerber seems to be taking a nap to start the 2nd set.

**frugalgambler** · 01-26-16, 08:40 PM

Will be interesting to see what happens in the 3rd set. Aza has not played a 3rd set the whole year. This is already her longest match. Another possibility is Kerber going mental. But wait, we are not there yet. Aza has just wasted a couple of SPs.

**xdodger19** · 01-26-16, 08:44 PM

Kerber needs to improve her half court game when she is approaching the net, all winners from the baseline

**JohnnyRudeboy** · 01-26-16, 08:49 PM

Full collapse from Vika

**w@lt** · 01-26-16, 08:52 PM

Bravo, Vika. Fukking beaver ballers

**JohnnyRudeboy** · 01-26-16, 08:52 PM

Looks like her mascara is already running

**frugalgambler** · 01-26-16, 09:03 PM

Wow, a stunner. Aza wasted 5SPs. Good thing for hedging Serena's futures. Should it come to a Serena-Kerber final, Kerber is likely going to be +300 and Aza would've been +200. Lucky to escape at break-even here.

**JohnnyRudeboy** · 01-26-16, 09:05 PM

Originally posted by frugalgambler

Wow, a stunner. Aza wasted 5SPs. Good thing for hedging Serena's futures. Should it come to a Serena-Kerber final, Kerber is likely going to be +300 and Aza would've been +200. Lucky to escape at break-even here.

+300???

I hope you're right so I can hedge my +4500 future easier (semi-final pending), but I think you're being too generous to Kerber.

**frugalgambler** · 01-26-16, 09:08 PM

Ironically, I think Kerber has a much better chance vs Serena. Her serve has some bit and she can probably go toe-to-toe from the baseline. Vika was serving meatballs today.

**JohnnyRudeboy** · 01-26-16, 09:09 PM

Originally posted by frugalgambler

Ironically, I think Kerber has a much better chance vs Serena. Her serve has some bit and she can probably go toe-to-toe from the baseline. Vika was serving meatballs today.

Looked like she was serving a wiffle ball

**frugalgambler** · 01-26-16, 09:12 PM

Freaking Maria was +260, historically Kerber has been around +400 vs Serena. But given Kerber's performance, I'd say she will not be higher than +400. What is interesting is that the books are also being optimistic for Agga tomorrow. The spread is almost the same as for Maria: +5.5 vs +4.5/5.

Edit: I was wrong. I think Maria was about +350, +260 was the live line. So expect Kerber to be in the +400 range. Probably between Agga's line and Maria's line.

**frugalgambler** · 01-26-16, 09:33 PM

Yeah, props to reedy. Does not looks like Shuai can deal with Konta here. Both in terms of the shot-making and nerves.

**frugalgambler** · 01-26-16, 11:08 PM

Well, well. Reedy was right again. Second day in a row I am going against an opinion of a hot capper and it cost me. Probably -1u today, barring a miracle. I think I am still up ~3u on the thread and I got 5.6u on Serena futures to win 6.4u. I'll definitely hedge a little tomorrow, likely at least 0.5u.

Interesting semis tomorrow. I expect a bit of a letdown from both favs. Serena likes Agga so she might not be as motivated to humiliate her. However, all this talk about Agga->Vinci->another huge upset might motivate Serena. Kerber should be drained while Konta had a fairly easy match. Konta is actually a pretty resilient player, she had a pretty deep run at US Open, beating Muggz and Petko; she has also beaten Venus and Halep last year. Skill wise Kerber should just be able to go through Konta, especially given that this is a completely uncharted territory for Konta. But I am not so sure it will be so easy for Kerber. In general, I struggle more in later rounds. I just like to be hedging my futures at this stage. I miss a capper like MDF to guide me there.