Aus Open WTA leans

[frugalgambler]

I do not play day-to-day WTA that much, so this thread has been created mainly for tracking purposes. And because I have time on this MLK day. Would not be surprised if I go <40% here.

Overs are 1u each at ~-110:

Lucic-Baroni o21.5
Tsurenko o21
Siniakova o20.5
BMS o20.5
Shvedova o21

Kontaveit +1.5 sets @+240 (0.5u)

[frugalgambler]

+1.5u so far; waiting to go 0-3 on the last three overs.

And, BMS is at o21.5 not o20.5. Not so sure in that one, so a semi-hedge BMS -1.5 sets @+195 for 0.5u.

[frugalgambler]

Cannot believe Diyaz lost the first set. Sometimes you gotta love WTA.

[Conqueror]

BOL with your plays.

[frugalgambler]

Thank you.

[frugalgambler]

Shoulda bet on a different Konta-dog.

[frugalgambler]

Argh, Pironkova kept it close but never managed to stretch any set. She has never been a good Slam player; bad bet but hindsight 20/20. At least, Lepchenko is coming through.

[frugalgambler]

Let's keep the dice rolling. 0.5u each on Brengle 1set@+110 & o21. Brengle has a lot of points to defend here, but she seems to be struggling lately, but so does Coco. I think it might get fugly.

[frugalgambler]

+1.4u so far, but BMS is off to a rocky start. BMS, PMS, my as.s.

[frugalgambler]

BMS overcame her PMS. I am guaranteed a winning day, LOL. I am not watching WTA that much, btw. Instead, what a match it was by Verdasco.

[tecmoslayer]

Let's keep the dice rolling. 0.5u each on Brengle 1set@+110 & o21. Brengle has a lot of points to defend here, but she seems to be struggling lately, but so does Coco. I think it might get fugly.

You have failed me for the first and last time. O21 FAILURE

[frugalgambler]

You have failed me for the first and last time. O21 FAILURE

LOL, I did not expect the first idiot to show up so quickly. Shoulda also taken Brengle 1st set and that would have been a break-even for your lame-as.s tailing $10 bets.

[frugalgambler]

Anyhoo, Coco did sh.t the bed. Up 4-1 40-30 in the 2nd and lost it 4-6. The ultimate headcase she is. I would have loved to be able to take Brengle 2-0 ~@+220, but I have limited set-betting options with the crappy BM and 5d books.

That wraps up the day at +1.9u. Not bad for dart-throwing. Might keep posting, if I feel like it.

[xdodger19]

Your over under plays were good, those were tough matches

[Jeff_Black]

BOL, keep posing shit
Quitters never prosper!

Speaking of Nadal and Verdasco, man....first thing I said to my betting buddies without knowing the total the day the draw came out was to get on overs regardless of what it was.
Saw it set to 35 and chickened out, grrrrr

[frugalgambler]

Yeah, Fernando and Jeremy are 5-setter machines. And both proved it today. Too bad, I do not like betting ATP. I just find it too unpredictable.

[frugalgambler]

Your over under plays were good, those were tough matches

Thanks. Just throwing darts here and there. I only have a vague idea about a lot of these players.

Halep lost. I was actually more surprised to learn that Shuai has never won a Slam match before. That girl has a lot of game. Halep played like a retard, trying to overpower her and failed miserably.

[reedy]

Good Call with Brengle. After watching her live for the Washington Kastles for the last 2 years Im always amazed when she wins at the top 50 level as I've never thought she was a strong player at all. Average all round with a below par backhand. Coco really starting off the year badly. Thats a lot of broken rackets.....

[frugalgambler]

Well, let's keep it going. I cannot say I am liking the card today. I fully expect to get bageled, Van-Uytvanck-style. So all picks are 0.5u

Overs:
Niculescu o20.5
Rybarikova o21.5
Nara o21

Kasatkina -1.5 sets @+105 (love this Russian chick)
Bouchard +5 @-110 (Agga might be in for a nasty surprise)

I'll probably add a pick or two later, to see if I can go 0-6.

[frugalgambler]

Good Call with Brengle. After watching her live for the Washington Kastles for the last 2 years Im always amazed when she wins at the top 50 level as I've never thought she was a strong player at all. Average all round with a below par backhand. Coco really starting off the year badly. Thats a lot of broken rackets.....

Yeah, players like Brengle always make me wonder how they managed to make it. Just shows you that WTA is not a really competitive circuit, compared to ATP at any rate. But Brengle made it to the 4th round last year. So defending those points might literally mean defending her lifestyle and the main source of income.

[frugalgambler]

Yeah, let's add Friedsam ML@+130 & o21 for 0.5u each. I think Wang is about to eat a wang here. But then again the German chick is not exactly a solid player. Should be another fun sh.tfest.

[frugalgambler]

Let's add Falconi o20. Another dart. Lotsa heat on Konjuh, but I am gonna stick with Kasatkina.

[frugalgambler]

Meh, Magda "the queen of tie-breaks" retired after 6-7 1st set. Wang ate her wang too soon. +0.1u on the day so far, LOL. Falconi seems to suck too much to stretch it against Vinci. Kasatkina will probably struggle to close it out.

[frugalgambler]

The Russian honey came through. But I need to have my head examined backing a pile of crap like Falconi against ageless Vinci.

[frugalgambler]

Well, let's add o21 Puig. I love watching her butt move, but I think she might in for a bit of a letdown here. We'll see.

[frugalgambler]

Hmm. A break-even day, barring a retirement. I'll take it any day. A couple of bad breaks again, but then again there are no bad breaks in WTA, just the short end of the stick or a bad outcome of a coinflip.

Looks like we got another solid top-50 player in Gasparyan. Good effort by Nara, as always, but she is still only a fringe top-100 player. Still, losing a second over bet with the score of 6-4 6-4 hurts.

And Bouchard fell apart leading 4-2 in the 1st set. Never liked that chick: ton of game but real bad attitude. Good riddance to rubbish.

But I am happy to see Kasatkina and Niculescu meeting the expectations. I'll probably post tomorrow. There are a couple of interesting matches, I think.

[frugalgambler]

An exciting card today. Lots of opportunity for dart throwing and I am a sucker for darts. Let's keep the leans at 1u today. Again, I would not be surprised to finish <40%. Any input would be appreciated, but not necessarily taken kindly.

These overs are at about @-105:

Brengle o21.5
Beck o21.5
Allertova o21.5
Lepchenko o20
Shvedova o20.5
Cornet o20.5

Brengle @+115
Allertova +3.5 @-105
Svitolina -1.5 sets @-105
Flipper +1.5 sets @+215

Honorary ATP lean: Ferrer o36. Ferrer's serve qualifies him for a spot in this thread.

Big upset by Gavrilova, not really unexpected b/c Kvitova struggles down under, but still a surprising scoreline of 6-4 6-4 (that damn scoreline is following me). Well, I think Gavrilova has a pretty good chance of making the semis, or at least the quarters.

[frugalgambler]

Check out the props for a "player to be suspended for match-fixing" @BM. Seems like there is a ~25% chance somebody from top-50 will be suspended over the next two years.

[reedy]

An exciting card today. Lots of opportunity for dart throwing and I am a sucker for darts. Let's keep the leans at 1u today. Again, I would not be surprised to finish <40%. Any input would be appreciated, but not necessarily taken kindly.

These overs are at about @-105:

Brengle o21.5
Beck o21.5
Allertova o21.5
Lepchenko o20
Shvedova o20.5
Cornet o20.5

Brengle @+115
Allertova +3.5 @-105
Svitolina -1.5 sets @-105
Flipper +1.5 sets @+215

Honorary ATP lean: Ferrer o36. Ferrer's serve qualifies him for a spot in this thread.

Big upset by Gavrilova, not really unexpected b/c Kvitova struggles down under, but still a surprising scoreline of 6-4 6-4 (that damn scoreline is following me). Well, I think Gavrilova has a pretty good chance of making the semis, or at least the quarters.

Im on the under in the Cornet game. I think Zhang is overvalued based on her last game. Halep playing like she hasn't got a god damn clue. I dont think Zhang had much to do with the win other than being there. I think Cornet rolls easily here (said no one ever).

I think Shvedova has the game to absorb some pace from Keys and win some games, maybe a set. Also Keys looked like garbage last game. You would never be able to tell though as the commentators were all over her rooster like her s**t didn't stink. Really terrible job by them.

Lepchenko and Flip can both play extremely well but also extremely badly. Flip was spraying a little last game.

Good luck with your bets.

[frugalgambler]

Thanks for the input. Cornet seems to be in good shape this January, but historically she likes to play long sets. Shuai has a lot of game, I remember when she was dominating the Chinese stretch a year ago or so. She had a problem with playing at Slams, but now that she won her first match, I think she can stretch the match today. But then again, she might lose 6-1 6-3. We'll see. Gamewise: Shuai can absolutely take at least one set; but it is all going to be in the head. Like I said I am throwing darts.

Flipper is obviously a long shot as the odds suggest. But Muggz form this year is still an unknown, and Flipper should probably start playing this year as if it might her last year.

[Jeff_Black]

Cornet overs is always one of my favourites no matter who she plays because she is sooooo inconsistent. Much like Ana when she isn't in great form. That's one of the great things to take advantage of in womens tennis. Rarely getting over 22 for total score.

[frugalgambler]

So far so good. Lepchenko met the expectations. I would have taken that over even at 22. She is such a headcase, big game but mentally unstable. Svitolina seems to be hitting the wall. I should get off her band wagon. Did not know Osaka was actually black. Live and learn, that is a pretty dangerous combination: black power coupled with Japanese work ethic. I was obviously too optimistic about Flipper. Muggz seems to be in a good shape. Aza-Muggz will be a good match.

[Jeff_Black]

Bad luck with Flipkens, she covered the 6.5

[frugalgambler]

Yeah she was game in the 1st set. Gave Muggz a little scare but that was it. One of the big problems for Flipper is the lack of stamina. Which is why she likes the grass so much: shorter points. I should taken the 1st set and saved myself some "juice".

[frugalgambler]

I do not like how the Brengle's match is turning. She has just lost the 2nd set. If I anybody was dumb enough to tail these leans, I would hedge her ML live.