scary stuff man, they should probably resume the match tomorrow.
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Nah, they are back on court and are all smiles, actually.Comment -
yeah Pam just said they were both given the choice to continue or not, so I guess it's ok.Comment -
Keys gets broken right away, as expected. Match over.Comment -
LOL, maybe not so fast. We'll see.Comment -
Ana -278 looks good to me but the way she collapses sometimes, I don't think I can pull the trigger.Comment -
Keys is back, playing like she mean it. Some nice hitting going on. The over is in. The question is if she can sustain this momentum. PS The coach is fine.Comment -
Live lines with heavy juice is not a good prop, especially in WTA. Looks like Keys will get broken when serving for the set. Oh well.Comment -
DF on a setpoint, wow.Comment -
I'm used to paying similar juice but yeah, it's much safer paying that much in the atp. I didn't end up doing it. I was scrambling to bet that Keys would get broken in this game when it was love 15 but I didn't get it in time before love 30. So hopefully she holds or I'm gonna be mad.Comment -
~eight min game to close out the set. Keys looks pretty exhausted. Hmm, leaning Ana's ML @+130.Comment -
Keys might be injured or dead tired, no pop on her serve.Comment -
who knows man, I have 0 read on Keys, she is either dominant or terrible.Comment -
Keys somehow found the third wind. Ana lost five straight games after racing to a 3-0 lead. Nice win for Keys. But that a WTA in a nutshell: wild swings of momentum and lousy nerves. Gavrilova-Mlad had a much higher quality 3rd set the other day. If Keys can recover and get through Lepchenko easily, she will be dangerous. Edit: It might be Shuai actually. Lepchenko looks mental already, 2 games in.Comment -
Well, another day, another dollar lost. Lepchenko is such a mental midget. Shuai has been impressive, and the books are actually liking her now a lot, given that they Shuai give about as much chance to beat Keys as they gave to Ana. -1.8u yesterday. Pretty much back even on the thread.
Some interesting matches today.
Bencic-Maria. o21.5 for 1u.
A somewhat unlucky draw for both of them. Both players showed some mental vulnerability in their previous matches. I think closing out the match today is not going to be straightforward for both of them. That is unless Maria sweeps Belinda of the court. Should be a fun match.
Gavrilova 1set @EV for 1u; o2.5 sets @+135 for 0.75u.
CSN has never been a good Slam player but she is actually a feisty woman, and I think Gavrilova has spent a lot of energy already in her previous rounds. I am thinking CSN takes a bit of time to adjust to the crowd and Gavrilova's theatrics and then wins in three sets.
Might add something on other matches. Actually looking at ATP, I think there is some WTA magic that might happen there today too. GL folks.Comment -
1st over is in. BB-gun somehow managed to weather the storm. High-risk, high-reward tennis from Sharapova. What's up with her pale-white legs ? She looks like a death warmed up.Comment -
Let's add a little degen parlay.
RBA +2.5 sets/Serena -1.5 sets/CSN ML 0.5u to win 1.35u. Berdman's high-pitched voice qualifies for an entry in the WTA thread. Although his g/f is smoking hot.Comment -
Sharapova has actually been serving lights out, 21 aces today, a personal record. Will it help her against Serena ? Let's see the line when it comes out. Over and/or Sharapova +1.5 sets might be an interesting play.Comment -
Serena has won 17-straight over Sharapova. I just saw her chuckle a little when the reporter asked her about her rivalry with Sharapova. She was like: "rivalry, what rivalry ?" But this is what driving Maria: to win another match over Serena is probably more important to her than winning another Slam.Comment -
Interesting. CSN is presumably playing injured, but she somehow won set#2. Hmm. Let's leave the parlay as is. Good day so far, guaranteed about +3u. Maybe more if Gavrilova folds in the 3rd set. An interesting prop could >11.5 games in set#3. I think it will be tight. @+250 for that prop.Comment -
Well, Gavrilova self-destructed in the 3rd set. I gotta say CSN was really smart about it, not showing any emotions and probably faking an injury. That took the crowd out of the match and changed the momentum. But this worked out well for me. +4.35u on the day.
I'll be back for more tomorrow, unless the Broncos win and I get too drunk to post. Can't say I like the card though. Lotsa unknowns. Tentatively, I think Keys, Aza and Makarova will not have a particularly easy time, while Kerber might.Comment -
Thanks buddy. I might argue I was even correct about the WTA magic happening on the ATP side. Both Berdman and Novak were stepping on the path of WTA.
Woo-hoo Broncos ! I am fully expecting to bomb on WTA today, so I am not going to go big there. But even if I get shut out, I'll be happy till the SB. Let's start with a little degen parlay:
Kerber -1.5 sets/Raonic +2.5 sets/Monfils -1.5 sets 0.75u to win 1.28u.
I think Kerber will come through, Wawa sometimes has a WTA mentality and Raonic has been dangerous down under, and although Monfils is as crazy as any WTA player, I am willing to back him against the young Russian.
I'll post on the other WTA matches soon. Later kick-off on those. GL folks.Comment -
Let's throw some more darts. There is a little more data on the last three matchups.
BZS +6.5 @+120 for 0.75u.
Aza has been absolutely plowing though the opposition but the opposition has been pretty weak. BZS is 0-4 against Aza with no sets won. However, BZS is a veteran that has been around a long time, though she is not that great in Grand Slams. Still, she is a certified b.tch (so is Aza actually) so I think she will be fighting today. Call me crazy but I have a feeling BZS will cover. Time for Aza to sweat a little.
Konta o21.5 for 0.75u
Shuai o21.5 for 0.75u
Konta has been pretty good since about mid-last year. Makarova is a clutch Slam player, and she loves playing down under. However, what I like about this over is that Konta actually knows she can beat Makarova, and Konta should also enjoy crowd support with Makarova sometimes getting flustered by outside distractions. I think at least one set will be tight. Konta might win straight up.
Pretty much the same logic with Shuai vs Keys. Shuai knows she can take Keys, and her game is almost as big. Keys obviously loves it down under, but she is still young and she seems to be not very steady throughout her matches.
Now, there is danger with all of the above overs: the dogs might get overwhelmed by the occasion, but I like that all of these underdogs are fairly experienced players, not teenagers facing somebody like Maria or Serena. GL folks.Comment -
Well, it was an adventure but BZS met the expectations. Aza looks as determined as ever, but her serve is still a weakness. I think her next matches will be even tighter. Let's see what the line for Kerber will be. Aza dominates that matchup, and she has destroyed her two weeks ago 6-3 6-1, but I think this time it might be closer.
Meanwhile, Monfils is being Monfils, getting himself injured. I gotta have my head checked backing Monfils to win convincingly.Comment -
Well, the parlay is in. Although it was an adventure with Monfils. Not sure I will be watching the late WTA matches. Probably will go 0-2 there. But in any case, some profit guaranteed.Comment -
Seeing that everybody is on Konta, I am adding a little on Makarova 2-0, 0.5u @+170. Basing this on her experience and her love for the Aus Open.Comment -
good luck dude. don't be pessimistic, have faith that these WTA ladies can grind out 22 gamesComment -
Well the over is in, but Makarova is going a bit mental there. I think Konta takes the 2nd, and maybe even the match. Can't say I like what I am seeing there from Makarova. Konta is just keeping every ball in play, and Makarova does not like to be an aggressor. 5-4 2nd set, Konta serving for it.Comment -
Makarova is crying. Wow. Well, +0.25u on that match. I'll take it, that is unless Makarova retires or something.Comment -
Hardly any spectators there, btw. Feels like nobody cares.Comment -
Anyone watching Keys-Zhang?
Can't tell if Keys is holding back tears or if she is faking her injury
Come one Zhang.Comment -
Turned out to be an excellent day, +3.15u on the day, and Broncos won ! Did not watch the last match, no idea what happened. Apparently Keys got injured. Hmm. OK.
Well, well, well, we are entering the final stages, where the lines are sharper and the pickings are slimmer. But the matches will be interesting today. I have some leans, but have not decided yet. Still have 2.5u on Serena @+175 pending. Not so confident now.Comment -
First of, I fully expect to bomb today because stringing together more than two winning days is just not something I do. But what the hell, let's throw some darts today.
Let's start with a little degen parlay:
Nishi o35/Feds ML/Agga ML 0.75u to win 1.35u and add 0.25u on Nishi ML@+505.
I think Djoker is mentally tired and Nishi has been looking nice down under, should be a tight match; Feds owns Berdman and Berdman has also stepped onto the path of WTA (as did Djoker); Agga should come through although it might not be so easy for her.
Have not decided what to do with Serena's match. I'll probably post later. I like Maria to put up a fight there, if not to win. CSN might also be game today, but she might be playing with an injury, and she does not have the power to really bother Agga. GL folks.Comment -
After thinking this over, I am ready to throw some more darts.
Serena o20.5 1u
Much has been said about Serena's domination over Sharapova, but this is probably the best I have seen Sharapova play, especially in terms of serve. I think she will be nervous as hell today, but I expect her to battle till the end and I do not think Serena will have an easy time out there, especially given her lack of tournament play. This is also a semi-hedge of my Serena's futures. I think this match is the actual final of this Slam. The winner will likely face Agga whom they both dominate (8-0 Serena and 12-2 Maria), and then probably Aza, who I think is a bit overhyped. I am thinking about adding a little of Maria's ML and I just might do that later on, as a direct hedge of my futures bet. Maybe ~0.3-0.5u or something. Let's see how the first match ends.
0.5u on Agga o2.5 sets @+177
This is a bit of a curveball. CSN is a vet who has been to Slam QFs four times already, including Aus and US Opens. This is probably her best chance to make the semis. She knows she can go toe-to-toe with Agga. Agga is coming off a taxing win over a mighty German underdog. Agga will probably still prevail, especially given CSN's possible injury, but I think it might be a close one. I expect a lot of rallies with some usual wizardry from Agga and a steady Simon-like tennis from CSN. But there is a chance CSN bombs. We'll see. You gotta also wonder how much Agga wants to play Serena and Maria next. I bet she is dreading that a little. Agga might also be playing injured, so lots of uncertainty in this one.
GL folks.Comment