Aus Open WTA leans

[frugalgambler]

Woo-hoo Allertova ! Both +3.5 games and the over are already in the bag. Expect to go 0-3 on the remaining over though. I might actually do a little hedging parlay that will not count for this thread. Btw, I am terrible with live betting and I tend to overhedge like an idiot I am. So the above live "advice" does not count either.

The funny thing is that I actually have no idea who Allertova is. Pure dart throwing. Well, I also know that Lisicki struggles lately and she has never been that good down under. All those muscles do not perform that well in hot and humid conditions.

[frugalgambler]

Actually four overs left. Forgot about the "honorary" WTA player Ferrer.

[frugalgambler]

Wow, Shvedova was 4-3 and 40-30 and double-faulted on the gamepoint. 5-5 now, but that might have a lingering effect on Shvedova.

[frugalgambler]

Check out the score in Murray's match. Unreal. 6-0 3-0 against an explosive server playing in home.

[frugalgambler]

Well, Brengle actually ran away in the 3rd set. Just shows you that I am an idiot. Lisicki lost straight up. +4.15u in those two matches. Love it.

[frugalgambler]

Wow, Shvedova was 4-3 and 40-30 and double-faulted on the gamepoint. 5-5 now, but that might have a lingering effect on Shvedova.

Shvedova dominates the TB. I am an idiot, LOL.

[frugalgambler]

The Keys over is in the bag, barring a retirement. I would love to see Keys lose, but it is not likely to happen.

[gaebiskon]

keys is a ue machine and b365 female commentator is saying she's gonna make her mark later at wimbledon or us open, lol

[frugalgambler]

keys is a ue machine and b365 female commentator is saying she's gonna make her mark later at wimbledon or us open, lol

Keys also has massive power which helps and a decent overall game. We'll see. If she gets head straightened, she can be a mutiple-Slam winner. In fact, she might do well this Slam already. I took the over in this one b/c I was expecting Shvedova to fight. She is a fighter and overachiever. Had she possessed the tools of Keys, she would have been a multi-Slam winner already.

[frugalgambler]

Yeah, Keys will probably take that quarter. The seeds are falling left and right, but the usual suspects are there. I'd say it is gonna be Serena vs Agga or Gavrilova and Keys vs Aza or Muggz in the semis. But I suck at futures.

[frugalgambler]

Wow, the floodgates have opened. Shuai is suddenly playing like a top-20 player she can be. The over is in danger.

[frugalgambler]

Well, lost the under in Cornet's match in the most unexpected fashion. I should've thought twice about the line: Cornet had a good run in Australia and Shuai has struggled lately, particularly in Slams, yet Cornet was only @EV to win 2-0. Shuai does have a game to be a solid top-20 player. Hmm. Two more overs left, expect to get swept there. My luck has probably run out.

[frugalgambler]

Hewitt is looking pretty shaky. That over is probably cooked. No idea about Beck. Anyhoo, I am guaranteed a winning day. At least +2u, and it will probably stay at +2u. Dunno about tomorrow. There are a couple of matches that I like, but I might take a break. Or maybe just ride into the sunset sitting on a +4u profit.

[frugalgambler]

As I expected, closed the day with a wimper, on a 0-3 run. +1.9u on the day. +3.8u on the thread.

Hewitt's loss was not surprising. A lot of wishful thinking in that bet. But the way the two favs, Bash and Cornet, got swept off the court and did not even come close to getting the over was surprising.

The card today is absolutely amazing. Not necessarily in a good way. Out of 8 match-ups, there is only one h2h match. And even that one is not too relevant b/c it occurred two years ago, when Gasparyan was still a different player. A lot of these matches look like a clash of the old guard vs the new wave. Not sure I am gonna dare to throw too many darts today. Baffling.

[frugalgambler]

Hmm. Throwing the darts more or less blindfolded. All plays are 0.5u, unless stated otherwise

Gasparyan o21.5
Kasatkina +7 (love that chick, and Serena is usually not so completely dominant until Week 2)
Kasatkina +1.5 sets @+435 for 0.25u (I must be crazy)
Kulichkova 1set @+185 (no idea here, but just fading CSN a little)
Gavrilova @-105 for 1u (the line makes no sense to me; it might be a trap, but I am dumb and I will bite)
Gavrilova o21.5
Puig +6
Puig @+550 for 0.25u (I must be crazy, but Puig is in a good form and Agga did not look so great vs Turdchard)

Looking for my first 0-6 sweep. I am due.

[reedy]

Hmm. Throwing the darts more or less blindfolded. All plays are 0.5u, unless stated otherwise

Gasparyan o21.5
Kasatkina +7 (love that chick, and Serena is usually not so completely dominant until Week 2)
Kasatkina +1.5 sets @+435 for 0.25u (I must be crazy)
Kulichkova 1set @+185 (no idea here, but just fading CSN a little)
Gavrilova @-105 for 1u (the line makes no sense to me; it might be a trap, but I am dumb and I will bite)
Gavrilova o21.5
Puig +6
Puig @+550 for 0.25u (I must be crazy, but Puig is in a good form and Agga did not look so great vs Turdchard)

Looking for my first 0-6 sweep. I am due.

Cmon man. Lets pick up the positive vibes here.

[frugalgambler]

I am being superpositive, dude. But I am also being realistic and calling it what it really is.

[frugalgambler]

Wow, Davis somehow has a 21-10 TB record. Incredible stat. When I heard that on TV I took her to take the 2nd set TB @+200. And it paid, although it was quite an adventure. Both Maria and Belinda are looking well shaky today. That probably means Serena and Agga will bagel today, b/c I am leaning against them. Just like Vinci. Amazing Roberta.

[frugalgambler]

Sacre Bleu ! Vinci lost, after 6-0 first set.

[frugalgambler]

Sacre Bleu times two ! I predicted a bagel for Agga, and she did it in the 2nd set after being down a break in the 1st set. Did not help that Puig taunted her a little with her attitude during the tight 1st set. Well, that was a quick -0.8u. Agga 6-0 was +1500 to start the 2nd set. Now, let's see if Serena will get a bagel too.

Young Putintseva seems to be getting outplayed by a more classy youngster. Probably another -0.55 u.

[frugalgambler]

Hmm, missed the angle that Kasatkina has beaten Venus a few weeks ago. Serena usually does not take kindly to that. Almost makes me want to lay off my bet. But, I won't.

[frugalgambler]

Yeah, Kasatkina is cooked. Looks completely overwhelmed there.

[frugalgambler]

The above was posted at 2:0 1st set. Wow. Serena looked dominant, but it was mostly Kasatkina. Well, the line did move in Kasatkina's direction from +7 to +6.5. So I was not the only one who expected a tighter match, but I forgot about the Venus factor. Anyhoo, Serena was ~+200 fav before this round, she is likely going to be ~+100 after this match. And even that line might be attractive. I am thinking about taking it, and hedging vs Aza if it comes to that. Another 0.8u down the drain.

[frugalgambler]

Epic win by Gavrilova & the over too. +1.5u on that match. Saves my day from being a total disaster. Glad I stayed up to watch it. The card tomorrow looks funky again. We'll see.

[frugalgambler]

-1.2u yesterday. Could've been much worse. Anyway, like the card today. Should be a bunch of interesting matches with lots at stake for these girls. All overs leans are 1u, at an average of ~-110

Makarova o22.5
Keys o21.5
Lepchenko o22
Konta o21.5

0.75u each
Beck -1.5 sets @+175
Don't expect these two favs to struggle. so liking a parlay on Kerber/Muggz to win 2-0 @+115

GL folks.

[frugalgambler]

Let's also add 2u on Serena's futures @+170 (5d). I might hedge in the final, especially if vs Aza, but I do not know who can stop Serena on her side of the draw. She looks healthy and focused, and both Sharapova and Agga cannot play her well in Slams. That is assuming Sharapova even beats Bencic.

[frugalgambler]

Actually the Serena's future is @+175. Let's add 0.5 units there. 2.5u total on Serena @+175.

[Conqueror]

Actually the Serena's future is @+175. Let's add 0.5 units there. 2.5u total on Serena @+175.

I'd agree Serena's path to the finals looks good. I didn't give her much of a chance before the tournament. But it now looks like she'll be playing Azarenka in the finals. Aza will definitely be an underdog if that happens. You can then hedge for profitability.

[frugalgambler]

Yeah, let's hope. Sharapova is being touted as being in a very good form, but she has a major issue playing against Serena, and so does Agga (who is playing injured btw) should it come to a Serena-Agga SF. Serena was +525 pre-tournament. The idea was that she was injured. Well, she looks anything but injured to me, and she is chasing Graf & Court for the total GS win record.

Aza actually has a tough path; Muggz/Kerber/Keys are no gimmes. Looks interesting and exciting. Last year, Serena would've been -150 at this stage. Did that loss to Vinci really change that much ?

[frugalgambler]

I'd say if it comes to a Serena-Aza final, Serena will be -200/-250, depending on well these players would look in previous rounds. That being said, this is all highly speculative and I suck @futures.

[RyanMozambique]

Yeah, let's hope. Sharapova is being touted as being in a very good form, but she has a major issue playing against Serena, and so does Agga (who is playing injured btw) should it come to a Serena-Agga SF. Serena was +525 pre-tournament. The idea was that she was injured. Well, she looks anything but injured to me, and she is chasing Graf & Court for the total GS win record.

Aza actually has a tough path; Muggz/Kerber/Keys are no gimmes. Looks interesting and exciting. Last year, Serena would've been -150 at this stage. Did that loss to Vinci really change that much ?

I agree 100% with you here. Serena should get to the final without much trouble. But you never know if Bencic or Sharapova can cauze an upset. Aza has a tough road but she is in superb form, really hard to beat

[frugalgambler]

Aza's form is being judged as excellent mainly based on her one win over Kerber. And Sharapova is being touted b/c she demolished the likes of Lauren Davis. Serena had a good showing vs Giorgi who is a solid player on big occasions, but that is it. Lots of uncertainty. This is why this Slam is so exciting, the first real test of the year to determine the pecking order. That being said, history would obviously favor Serena.

[frugalgambler]

Well, the first two overs did not pan out. And Mugz got punked by BZS. At least Beck delivered and she makes a decent beer too.

A weird situation in the Keys match. Dunno what is happening with Ana's coach (?), but unless he is having a heart attack or something, you gotta be able to deal with that sh.t faster. Second time this happens already at this tourney. Could be a good way to disrupt the course of a match: just pay somebody to fake an illness and you are guaranteed a 30 mins+ delay. Before that break, Keys was showing her inexperience and overall lack of concentration. She is outplaying Ana, but she is losing the big points. Unless this pause changes the momentum, Ana will probably win in two sets.

[frugalgambler]

Well, I hope Ana's coach is OK. Grandpa to be. Hmm. Really funky stuff. Murray might also be affected. Do not think it will help Keys though. Ana is too experienced to let Keys win here. Keys is just not winning the big points.

[frugalgambler]

Heart-attack, wow. Probably they will push this match to tomorrow. Ah, no, they will resume the match. Just announced, as I was typing. But the dude seems to be alive and kicking. Good.