A parlay Azarenka/Stephens would bring still @1.5
Isn't that free money? What do you think? Any chance Krilenko or Lucic pull an upset?
Isn't that free money? What do you think? Any chance Krilenko or Lucic pull an upset?
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Free money doesn't exist
Of course it looks almost impossible for these two girls to pull an upset, but I am not fan of parlaying these very short priced favorites... Azarenka is coming of an injury, so you never know... And despite this being a grand slam, you always have to be careful with SLoane. It's probably going to hit, but I don't think these parlays are a good way to make profit in a long run. Good luck today!
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not a fan too. did not play it. But it seems like a 90% bet. GL to you too
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Azarenka -5.5 @1.84 Pinnacle - 2 units
Lucic des have a solid serve and groudstrokes. But she was not in very good form lately and when she hits the wall, it gets ugly for her. Azarenka might be bit rusty, coming back after the injury, but she is still world class. If she wins first set, Lucic will most likely give up in the second set.
Baghdatis -1.5 @1.88 Pinnacle - 3 units
As I wrote couple of times, in past few days. I like Marcos to take this one here. He did everything to be in best shape, for Wimbledon. Brown is getting a lot of love for his performances in Halle, but he is too big of a wild card, which cannot be trusted as a small underdog, against a guy, who can play really solid on grass. Especially because his serve is too big of a liability (double faults), even though it seems really good at the first sight.
Kleybanova @2.84 Pinnacle - 2 units
Upset alert. Lauren Davis has been solid, in past few weeks, playing on grass. But, I think she is bit overrated in this situation. Kleybanova can be very dangerous, when she is able to do most of the job with her hitting and grass allows her to do just that.
Goffin +8.5 @1.88 Pinnacle - 2 units
Seems like too big of a line. Goffin is not such a scrub. He can play some good tennis, especially on the big stage.
Safarova -3.5 @1.99 Pinnacle - 4 units
I really like this one. Despite being heavy hitter and fairly solid server, Goerges is not that great on the grass. She likes to get high bounces, so she can smack those forehands in, but on the grass, she is getting low bounce, and cannot play her usual game. Not to mention that Safarova as a lefty, will look to expose her backhand as often as possible. And also, she is more consistant server.
Saville +4 @1.90 Pinnacle - 2 units
In my wimbledon thread, I said that I am concerned about Thiem's game on the grass. No doubt that the kid has talent, but he simply doesn't have enough matches on this surface and he didn't figure it out yet. I have never watched Saville, but I trust fellow forum member SirtySree (thanks for your input in the other thread), when he said that this is his favorite surface and that he is pretty decent tennis player. After I read Thiem's comment, where he said that if he manages to be at his best, on grass, this one is 50-50, I have to go with Saville +4.Comment -
Safarova is a great bet. I like Goffin+Aza as well.
btw: Kirilenko plays really good. Never expected that.
If I wouldn't see the match maybe I would take the@3 live now but Stephens does not look she is coming backComment -
Goffin is a scrub, make no mistake. Biggest scrub, biggest loser. BOL in your plays
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Broady ML @2.85 Pinnacle - 1 unit
I don't know how can Babos be such a big favorite here. Ok, she has solid serve and big hitting, but she is just too unreliable and makes tons of errors, to be trusted as such big favorite.
Muguruza ML @1.81 Pinnacle - 2 units
Overreaction to their match, from last week, which Vandeweghe won. Despite Coco being a serious threat on grass courts, Muguruza is superior player overall. She should be bigger favorite in this spot. I expect much better effort from here in this one, comapring to their match in hertogenbosch.Comment -
Australia-Spain. I will not touch this one. Heart and soul of the Australian team, Tim Cahill is suspended and will not play today. Without him, I don't see Australian's breaking spanish defense, which they will probably have to do, if they want to cover. On the other side, also cannot lay goals with Spain in a completely meaningles game, after overall dissapointing performance on this wc.
Netherlands-Chile. Leaning toward the over here. Chile has nothing to lose in this game, only gain. They are going all out for this win, but we could see how dangerous can Holland be from the counter attacks. It could be an entertaining one. over 2,5
Brazil-Cameroon. African team is a complete mess, but backing Brazilians to cover such huge line, has no value. no bet here.
Croatia-Mexico. Everything is on the line, for these two teams in this game. It will decide who is going home and who is going to R16. Mexico played a very solid game against Brazil. They played very aggresive defense, pressing Brazil, already on their own half. With that, they were preventing Brazilian attack to develop into something more dangerous. But, that kind of tactics can also backfire. Croatia has a midfield, which can break that high press defense and that is where Mexico will find themselves in troubles. Croatia pk
Good luck!Comment -
Goffin = trashComment -
Yup, he confirmed that in his last service game. 40-0 up. If he would won that one, he would secure TB and most likely, I would hit that bet, but of course, he got broken. Azarenka 0.5 game short to cover. Safarova winning in straight, but failed to cover... Not very lucky today.Comment -
Now watch Baghdatis win 7-6 in the 4th.....Comment -
badger any feelings on fognini?Comment -
Fuk me HB!! I had Bags -2 games today & got greedy with the -110 instead of his Money Line at -145!!! Dammit...
Tough loss on that one man, me too
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Hey HB, how is Wimby treating you ? As usual, I am back with my FIFA leans.
Italy-Uruguay: I really like the under 1H and 0-0 1H. Yeah, 'guay needs to win but they really do not have the midfield to sustain possession deep in the Italian territory. Italy will be defending with numbers, that goes without saying. Most likely, the game will open up a lot more in the 2H, and I think Italy might very well win, scoring off a counter. But on the other hand, we got the Suarez magic so I am not so sure about that one. Still, I think Italy will prevail and go through.
Costa Rica - Wankers, eh England. I actually got too greedy and took Italy/URU to advance, I knew that England would s.ck again but I did not expect Costa Rica to advance, well who did ? Anyway, I am sure Costa Rica will want to avoid Colombia in the next round so all they need is not to lose by too much today. And England might get up and play for pride, and with no pressure on them they might score a few, while Costa Rica might have a letdown game after celebrating for too long their early success. However, I find scenario very unlikely. So I think Costa Rica +0.5@+100 looks nice. Under and 0-0 1H might also be a good angle. I am pretty 'Rica will be defending with numbers early on, until they find the usual holes in the English midfield and start to be more aggressive as the game progresses.
Colombia-Japan: Japan needs to win, preferably by a few goals. However, Colombians playing in front of their fans are not likely to produce a no-show. I think over looks nice. Not sure if Colombia will win, but if I had to pick a side I would pick their ML.
Grease-IC: well the Greek side looked about as bad on offense as Tahiti at the Confed Cup. But they still have a slimmer of hope, all they need is a 1-0 type of win and Colombia not to lose to Japan; this is not an unlikely scenario at all. On the other hand, Ivory Coast would almost surely advance with a draw. So I do not think they will pressing by too much early on and Greeks will be sitting back as well b/c if they concede a goal it is highly unlikely they can score two. I would lean under 1H/FG, 0-0 1H, maybe also Greece +0.5 FG, although I think the game will open up in the 2H again and the much more athletic Ivory Coast might score a couple off counters on the aging Greeks (Dutch/Mexican style), that is unless Greeks somehow do not sneak a 1H goal.Comment -
Granollers +4 @1.93 Pinnacle - 2 units
I think Mahut is overrated here. He is a good grass court player, but to cover this one, he has will most likely have to win this one in straight sets. Granollers can definitely play some good tennis on grass as well and I don't see him losing this one easily. It should be quite a battle.
Przysiezny ML @7.55 Pinnacle - 1 unit
Not many will agree with this one. Backing a complete mug, against a grass court legend. But, I don't think that Hewitt has much left in his tenk. He is getting old and he is not performing on a same level, as in previous seasons. Market failed to adjust to that, so I am going to take a shot her, with these great odds. Przysiezny has a good serve and a game which could actualy work on grass.
Gimeno Traver ML @4.46 Pinnacle - 2 units
I have seen Giraldo play, last week against Nieminen, and that is not how you are supposed to play on grass. He did zero adjustments in his game, comparing to when he plays on clay. Uses same groundstokes, which obviously doesn't have the same effect on grass, as they have on clay + he is going too much for the lines. On such surface, you do not have to risk so much and also, you will have more problems to place those shots in the corners, becuase you simply have less time to react. Gimeno Traver is not a great player, but at these odds, I have to give it a go.Comment -
Lots of ups and downs, but hopefully I will do better in the following days.
Speaking about Uruguay-Italy game, we pretty much agree compelty. Italians are great tacticians and when they need only a draw, they usualy find the way to get to it. I also think that having a better mifield, will allow them to put the match under their control. But yes, as you said, Suarez is a serious threat, whenever he touches the ball and I am not impressed with Italian defenders.
I don't have an idea what could happen in Costa Rica game. They proved everybody wrong, twice already and I am not willing to go against them, against England, which is probably more focused on their battle with the journalists and critics, when they get back home. I am not sure that they are thinking too much, about playing for pride, etc.
Yeah, over does sound nice in Colombia-Japan game. Japan has nothing to lose acctualy and they have the quality up front to score. Colombia without pressure should also play some good football, so yes, the over sounds nice.
Greek side shouldn't even be on this world cup (alongside few others like Cameroon). They have nothing to show and I think IC should win, despite the draw probably being enough for them.
Good luck!Comment -
Good stuff as always. Hopefully have more to add later.
What are you thoughts on futures? I'm thinking Williams is over-rated.
For the men's it's hard to look past Djoker but no value.Comment -
So is it just me or do all the favorites look like absolute whoreshit this WC???
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I would not be so judgmental, HC. I'd say Holland, Germany and France have been looking sharp enough, and Brazil and Argentina will likely make it to the semis. But some other supposed favs, like Swiss and Belgium do look not so great.
Yeah, that was a crazy day. Suarez ! I'd say there is a >80% chance he will be suspended which makes the -165 line for Colombia to advance pretty attractive. That line is fair only if Suarez plays, if not it should be more like -220. What do you think, HB ?
Anyway, another four game day ahead, but I cannot say I am liking this card that much. Perhaps, you will see other angles ?
Argentina-Nigeria: most likely Nigeria will squeak by regardless of the outcome, but they would sure love to get a draw or at least not to lose by too much. On the other hand, Argentina has been struggling offensively and they would love to see their highly touted strikers get a goal or two, "Fred style". However, I get a feeling that the more athletic Nigerians will not lay down and might score as well, since the Argentinian D has not been looking so solid. Then again, the draw will suit both teams just fine. Hmm. Based on what I saw, I am leaning Nigeria +1/+1.5@-125. But I am not that sure. Ditto with the totals: on the one hand 0-0 1H looks attractive (I do not think any of these two teams will come out charging ahead) but with another African defense in play, taking over FG seems to be pretty logical too.
BIH-Iran: this one appears to be a bit more clearcut. A lot will depend on the Bosnian lineup. But I assume they will not be making too many changes. Iran needs to win and the only way they can do it is to approach the match Greek style. Their bus is pretty solid as they demonstrated against Nigeria and Argentina. So I think they will sit back in the 1H and try to look for a possible opening. Bosnia will try to get their first win ever (actually get a first point ever), but they have not looked that sharp on offense and it is not clear how motivated they will be. Hmm. I'd say 0-0 1H and under 1H might be in play. The game might open up a lot more in the 2H, assuming it stays scoreless by HT. I might take Iran +0.5 as well. I just think Bosnia might not show up and even if they do, Iran's D should give them fits.
France-Ecuador: Dechamps stated that he will not be changing his game plan to avoid breaking their mojo and Benzema is chasing Golden Boot. But this is still a young team and Ecuador might get by with a draw, let alone a win. Ecuador however did not look that sharp on offense. Hmm. Again, I am not so sure in this one but France has been magical so far. I'd say maybe over 2.5 looks attractive and maybe even France -0.5/-1 but not so sure in that one.
Swiss Miss-Honduras: Honduras is actually not eliminated. All they need is a win and hope that Ecuador loses by a few goals to France, not a super-unlikely scenario. The cheese boys looked like crap so far. In principle, both teams should be attacking, but I just do not see that happening early on. This is not in Honduras' DNA, while the Swiss midfield has been really suspect. I'd say another Greek-style approach by Honduras might lead to a 0-0 1H, 1H under, and maybe even FG under. If I had to pick a side, I'd go with Honduras +1/+1.5.Comment -
Stakhovsky +4 @1.98 Pinnacle - 2 units
AS I wrote recently, Gulbis seems to be losing some focus, after that great result at RG. Reports were saying that he lost big chunk of that prize money, just days later, in casino. After that, he lost in the first round of Queens club to De Schepper. And in the first round of Wimbledon, he got past Zopp in straight sets, but needed tie-break to decide in every one of them. Despite his huge first serve, his game is not perfectly suited for the grass, while his opponent today, is always a serious threat on this surface.Comment -
Lepchenko +1.5 @1.85 Pinnacle - 4 units
It is quite obvious that Carolina Garcia is in crisis, since that painful defeat in the first round of RG, against Ana Ivanovic. Her confidence is not that high, as it was earlier in the clay court season and I think she is overrated in this spot. Also, despite some big weapons, like her serve (inconsistant) and her forehand, it seems like grass is not really her thing. She eliminated Errani in round 1, but all the things which are great in Errani's game, are pretty much useless on grass courts.
Lepchenko is a very tricky opponent, and I see her as a clear favorite here.
Iran to win @3.76 Pinnacle - 4 units
Betting rule No.1. Never, ever, back a team, from ex Yugoslavia, which has nothing to play for. I really cannot understand these odds. Ok, Bosnia has better players on paper. But they are very dissapointed to be eliminated already. Critics back at home, are of course pretty loud at the moment. Media talking about who can replace coach Susic. There were even rumours about some fight, in the locker room, after the game against Nigeria. Not surprised. Anyway, their mindset are miles from where it is supposed to be, to win this game.
Iran might not have many players, which are known to average european football fan. But they have a good coach and they are playing like a team. And of course, they still have some hopes to get through to the next phase. Huge value.Comment -
Holland has been good, agreed. France has been alright but not great (worse than Holland for sure), and Germany has actually only been made to look good so far; you've been fooled by the illusion.Comment -
Holland has average defense, France played bad opponents, Germany has played below their standards.Comment -
Yeah, that was exactly what I thought, when that incident happened. That he will probably get suspended after the game and the value, at the opening odds will be with Colombia. He is a very important part of their game, but I would not go that far and say that the line should be -220. That is too much.
Nigeria-Argentina. I was not impressed with either team so far. Nigeria played a pretty boring draw against Iran in the opener. While in the second game they were pretty much saved by the reffere in the first half and with pathetic display by Bosnia in the second one. Emenike is a good player, but that is about it... Argentina also not very good. As I wrote before, their central midfield does not know how to create some space for their great wingers and forwards and give a decisive pass at the right time. How little solutions they have in central midfield, can be shown with the fact, that Di Maria is forced to play out of his natural position, to help there. As you said, both should be fine with the draw, so under might not be a bad choice. But then again, Argentina is probably eager to put up one stunning performance, with couple of goals scored, so they get the critics of their back and get some pressure of themselves, before the eliminating stages. I don't see Nigeria stealing anything from this one. Argentina 2-0 would be my prediction for the correct score, but I am not sure if I am willing to lay -1.25 with them in this situation.
As I wrote above, in the reasoning for my Iran pick. You gotta llove tem at these odds. Yeah, they have bit more defensive approach, but Bosnia is shattered at the moment and I see some great value with the Iranians, who have a good opportunity to find themselves in the next phase.
This is a tough one. I think the line is right where it should be. For me, France played the best football so far, in this competition. As soon as I seen that they crossed out Samir Nasri, Franck Ribery from the squad, I realised that this team is built to play football and make result. Without big names, making uneccesery drama. Ecuador, for me, was one of the pleasant surprises. Their defensive line is bit old and too mistake prone, but they are playing smart to their strenghts. They would deserve to get into the next phase, but they are in very difficult situation. No play in this one.
Yeah, Swizterland is one of the biggest dissapointments. Ball is traveling way too slow through the middle, when it is in their possesion, that they will most likely have major problems, geting through aggressive Honduras defense. Wouldn't be surprised with the draw in this one. Good luck!Comment -
Does Baghdaddy win a lot of challenges, I wonder...
How about Jovanovski @ 5.88 non-void?Comment -
On Honduras 1:st @ 7.58 from earlier. Let's find out what the banana-pickers can do!Comment -
I think that is a good bet. Switzerland way overrated. If Honduras sneaks one in, from a set piece, Switzerland will probably not be able to come back by halftime. Good luck, HC.
On the other note, I am absolutely terrible lately. That is why I decided to take a break. It is impossible to continue in this way...Comment -
You have been yes... but so have I.
Switzerland took 85 minutes to wake the f*ck up against France.Comment -
HB you think there is value at Algeria ML, odds are 3.80?
(or maybe Algeria DNB..)Comment -
Hey HB. I am gonna break the tradition mention a tennis lean first: Vekic -3.5 vs Zvonareva looks interesting to me. It worries me that Vekic tends to drop a set here and there at 1-6 or so but I think Zvonareva who struggled mightily in the 1st round against a very low-ranked player is to out of shape to keep up with Vekic.
Anyway, onto the FIFA. Today was not a good day to put it mildly, but there is always tomorrow.
GER-USA is iffy but both teams will be happy with a 0-0/1-1 draw. I do not buy into all those grand statements by both coaches that both teams will be playing at the max speed tomorrow. If USA manages to avoid an early goal, I am leaning 0-0 1H and draw FG. If the game is drawn by ~65th min expect a standstill.
POR-GHA: Portugal has looked pretty bleak so far and I have no idea why they are the favs against the surging Ghana. Ghana +0.5/ML and over (gotta like the over with both teams expected to attack and an African defense being involved).
BEL-KOR: Belgium does not have that much to play for but I do not think Korea will see much of a ball against them. I expect a boring first half, again 0-0 1H seems to be interesting; the only thing that worries me is that the Korean D has been piss poor so far. But Belgians will be happy to control the ball and try to avoid injuries. They do need at least a draw to guarantee the 1st place and avoid the mighty Germans. Now, if USA somehow upsets Germany in the earlier game, a full time tank job from Belgium would become a distinct possibility.
RUS-ALG: Russia without star power and under Capello: need I say more ? I expect a cautious start from both teams with Russia trying to attack without much success, while keeping a watchful eye for the counters. But Algeria tends to run out of gas in the 2H and they might have blown their load in the last match. So again I am leaning 0-0 1H and maybe under FG. If the game is tied at HT, I think Russia will somehow manage to win it and possibly qualify, only to face the Germans.Comment -
The line got bet up to -4.5, where I honestly doesn't see much value. Yeah, Zvonareva is not very good, but also, I don't think that it is very smart, laying 4.5 games, with the young player, which takes a lot of risk in her game and has a lot of ups and downs, of course... If you got -3.5, it was a good deal, but at curretn line, there is no value.
Problem with betting on GER-USA game, is that there is so many different scenarios, leading USA to the next round, even if they lose. I believe that Portugal has no chance to come into the second place, but we all overlooked Ghana, which is actually in better position. As you said, those statments by the coaches, who are saying that both teams will play normal, are BS. Germany will do anything to secure this first place, and avoid Belgium in R16, while USA would really like to stay in this 2nd place. Draw looks quite good to me.
POR-GHA. I completely agree. Portugal overrated. They were pathetic, so far in the competition and everybody is expecting them to make this final push for the 2nd place, in this game. Everybody is overlooking Ghana, which still has decent chance acctually. As you said, over and Ghana +0.5
BEL-KOR: Yeah, here we have to wait for the group G to end. Because Belgium is in great spot, to "choose" the opponent, if something strange happen in that group. Both of their games, have been super boring so far, so I don't think we will see many goals in this one, despite Korean defense being poor.
RUS-ALG: Another pathetic european team proceeding into the next phase, would be too much. Greece was lucky, Russia doesn't deserve it. Algeria showed that 11 of their man on the field are prepared to die for each other and are playing like a team. Russia has no anwser for that aggressive Algerian team. Anyway, at these odds, Algeria +0.5 is the only way to go. Good luck!Comment -
Scratch that Ghana +0.5 play. I just read that Muntari and Boateng got suspended from their national team, becuase some arrguing...Comment
