EP36's Fuzzy Tennis Balls

[EaglesPhan36]

Muller going for the Trifecta this week. Third straight week he has Lacko in the way. Passed last time. Trying again this 3rd time. Muller may never lose again on the Challenger circuit, but I still think he's got a shot as he improved against him last week.

Gimcheon Challenger: Lacko +160

[fitguy67]

the run this muller is on...it's like he sold his soul to the devil a few weeks ago

[SirtySree]

the run this muller is on...it's like he sold his soul to the devil a few weeks ago

haha, hes just a class above these challenger level players. he played with the big boys before he retired so hopefully he gets back there soon as it would b interesting to c who he can knock off on the bigger stage

[EaglesPhan36]

He won't do much on the ATP level. He'll probably surface during the US Open Hard Court series for an event or two, but he's found his niche it appears. Nothing wrong with beating up on WTA type serves and cashing 10-20K per week. We should all be so lucky.

The luck he has had these three weeks is that he exerts so little energy with rallies that he can keep playing without a dip in level. It's like being seven feet tall and weighing 300+ in the NBA and being guarded by someone about 4 inches shorter and about 50 pounds lighter.

[SirtySree]

He won't do much on the ATP level. He'll probably surface during the US Open Hard Court series for an event or two, but he's found his niche it appears. Nothing wrong with beating up on WTA type serves and cashing 10-20K per week. We should all be so lucky.

The luck he has had these three weeks is that he exerts so little energy with rallies that he can keep playing without a dip in level. It's like being seven feet tall and weighing 300+ in the NBA and being guarded by someone about 4 inches shorter and about 50 pounds lighter.

I reckon he wants to play at the higher level if he came back as that's what most ppl play tennis for. He's a servebot or sorts, always has been so doesn't need to exert a lot of energy as u said. He has beaten or came close to beating a lot of big names just by doing that so don't see why he cant do that nw considering he's still serving as well as ever.

[EaglesPhan36]

Lacko just lacks that one moment of concentration and it's over. Well either evening out or dropping a unit.

Gimcheon Challenger: Sugita +100

[EaglesPhan36]

I reckon he wants to play at the higher level if he came back as that's what most ppl play tennis for. He's a servebot or sorts, always has been so doesn't need to exert a lot of energy as u said. He has beaten or came close to beating a lot of big names just by doing that so don't see why he cant do that nw considering he's still serving as well as ever.

Big difference between the chumps he is beating here and what he'll see up at the ATP level. Challenger guys, a lot of them are totally overwhelmed by big serves. ATP level, the top tier sees this shit at a better level every tournament.

I expect he'll play the 250s in the summer on hard courts. Problem for him is that he'll probably have to go through qualifying for anything higher than that unless he can grind a couple more titles along the way. Maybe he can crack the Top 100. But it's gonna take more.

[fitguy67]

this last few weeks has been emphatic...groth twice...lacko twice (thrice in progress?...reverse jinx attempt...not likely to work...the guy just has no sense of humour...relentlessly threatening to break his opponent's service while breezing through his own)...

seems like muller and ram may be this circuit's nadal/djokovic

[Marillion]

Maybe he can crack the Top 100. But it's gonna take more.

Sorry, English is not my first language. What does "crack the top 100" mean, "enter the top 100"?

[EaglesPhan36]

this last few weeks has been emphatic...groth twice...lacko twice (thrice in progress?...reverse jinx attempt...not likely to work...the guy just has no sense of humour...relentlessly threatening to break his opponent's service while breezing through his own)...

seems like muller and ram may be this circuit's nadal/djokovic

Groth is a C- level Muller. Yes, crack the top 100 ... get ranked inside the top 100.

[Marillion]

OK, it seemed strange to me cause IMO it's pretty evident he'll get there. How deep of a run he'll make is unclear but a guy who rolls in challengers in that manner surely enters.

Just like Kenny the Schepper servebotted his way up to sixty-something place in the world.

[SirtySree]

Big difference between the chumps he is beating here and what he'll see up at the ATP level. Challenger guys, a lot of them are totally overwhelmed by big serves. ATP level, the top tier sees this shit at a better level every tournament.

I expect he'll play the 250s in the summer on hard courts. Problem for him is that he'll probably have to go through qualifying for anything higher than that unless he can grind a couple more titles along the way. Maybe he can crack the Top 100. But it's gonna take more.

He was in the top 50 previously before injury/retirement. He already played ATP level and bet many big names (check his history, some big names there). I can see Muller beating a few players near the top 50 quite easily on hard court.

[beefcake]

Muller can make semis and finals of those 250s in the summer..See ATL...He will be a good future bet..

[beefcake]

He won't do much on the ATP level. He'll probably surface during the US Open Hard Court series for an event or two, but he's found his niche it appears. Nothing wrong with beating up on WTA type serves and cashing 10-20K per week. We should all be so lucky.

The luck he has had these three weeks is that he exerts so little energy with rallies that he can keep playing without a dip in level. It's like being seven feet tall and weighing 300+ in the NBA and being guarded by someone about 4 inches shorter and about 50 pounds lighter.

Now that Kevin Kim is retired we have a new "Paycheck" on the tour..!!

[EaglesPhan36]

He was in the top 50 previously before injury/retirement. He already played ATP level and bet many big names (check his history, some big names there). I can see Muller beating a few players near the top 50 quite easily on hard court.

Guy just turned 32. His best days are well behind him IMO. The only "Servebot" who sustained some success on the other side of 30 at the ATP level really is Karlovic lately and most of his came at 250 events where the draws were much easier than 500s, Masters or Slams.

Just my opinion. He's not really beating anything but guys who should be getting beat by a big serve because they cannot keep up.

I got lucky Sugita quit and my bet was booked at Bovada. so a push.

2014 Season Overall Profit: +9.07

[bababooey13]

how would you recommend i hedge with that nishikori future if u dont mind me askin

[EaglesPhan36]

Sorry missed this ... I would have just taken a pop on Ferrer that would have covered your initial investment on the Nishikori future or maybe a little more that would make you a little profit. Does get tough towards the end of tournaments sometimes to find opportunities.

[fitguy67]

bababooey

here's an easy to use calculator that'll tell u how to fully green-out any position to the "i don't give a rat's ass what happens" point...

http://www.bobbybucks.com/hedge_calculator.php

(btw, i see that u might not have needed it...good call on this at the start of the tourney)

[EaglesPhan36]

5.10-11.14
Parlay: (Gimcheon) Muller + (Madrid) Bryans
Risking 1.00 to win 0.68

[EaglesPhan36]

Ugh. If I pick the match that Muller finally flames out ... and I backed him. FML.

[EaglesPhan36]

Or Ito can suck a dong and blow a 4-1 lead in the TB. Thanks dude.

[EaglesPhan36]

5.11.14
ATP Rome: Janowicz -115

[bababooey13]

5.11.14
ATP Rome: Janowicz -115

ya i like he looked better than usual against gulbis and liev schreiber has looked like horse shit. gl EP

[EaglesPhan36]

Indeed on Kohlschreiber.

Muller making me sweat a third set. Fukk.

[CindyCryBaby]

Indeed on Kohlschreiber.

Muller making me sweat a third set. Fukk.

Win or lose, horrible value on this bet. Muller should have been more like ~-240

[EaglesPhan36]

Rarely gonna see a line with a favorite dominating a circuit that is where it should be. Nadal in Madrid. Muller in Gimcheon.

That's how books suck us in to making parlays.

End of the day that "Value" word makes me cringe. Always will. Wins and losses are the end game.

[SirtySree]

I don't know American odds but in decimal, he was @1.4 early which is decent value for someone on his run.

I'm on him too. GL Eagle. Muller couldn't get in a 1st serve in two straight service games which is unusual for him or any servebot usually.

[Hardcoar]

He's tired.

[beefcake]

Bryans giving you the big banana..

[EaglesPhan36]

Yeah. Not totally shocked they lost, but surprised they pretty much got demolished. Jany probably gonna fade in the 3rd.

[EaglesPhan36]

Right on time, schmuckzilla got broken in the 3rd. He's finished. And I am on a Janowicz diet. Tried him the last two tourneys thinking they were decent spots. Guy just does not have any sort of winners mentality. I'm back on the fade train.

[EaglesPhan36]

2014 Season Overall Profit: +6.92

[EaglesPhan36]

ATP Rome Mini-View

ATP Madrid Open
The return of Novak Djokovic will be the thing to watch this week. He has been on the shelf since Monte Carlo with wrist pain. It'll be interesting to see if he's pushing it this week or if he's truly feeling better. Nadal is your top seed and comes in off the TKO of Nishikori for the Madrid Title. He had looked pretty solid until Sunday when Nishikori took it to him for a set plus before his back crippled him. Wawrinka is slated as the #3 this week and Federer is the 4th seed. The last nine titles in Rome have gone to either Nadal or Djokovic. This Spring nothing has been quite the same, so this should be a fairly wide open event given some of the statuses entering the week.You'll get a surprise semifinalist here every once in a while - not neccessarily unseeded, but someone who was not expected to be there. Tsonga or Dolgopolov are the ones I would watch potentially in Federer's quarter.

1st Round Upset Watch
Golubev over Verdasco
Since winning in Houston, Verdasco has been in the win one, lose one mode. That's been his record in Rome the last three trips here, losing in the Round of 32 for three straight years. Golubev should pose a threat here, having gone through qualis and nearly beating Nicolas Almagro in Madrid last week. Woth a small play.

Cechhinato over Sijsling
Sijsling on his least favorite surface should give the Italian Wildcard a shot. Cechhinato has been a consistent threat at the Challenger level on dirt. Sijsling did show some form in Madrid, beating a fading Tommy Haas in the process. Still, he is a 50-50 proposition on clay at best. Cechhnato has a chance to pick up his maiden ATL level win if he embraces the moment.

Seppi over Haas
A very slight underdog [+105] in this match, look for the Italian to return the favor after Haas beat him in three in Munich a few weeks back. Haas has really struggled for consistency and struggled with injury in 2014. Rome has been a bad stop for him with his last five trips here resulting in first match losses.

Nadal Quarter
Just call Rafa "Easy Rider" with this draw. Andy Murray is the seed on the bottom of this quarter with Isner and Youzhny as the other two seeded players. Isner is already out, losing to Melzer in his opener. Youzhny is still very short on form this year. There really are no dangerous floaters for Nadal in this quarter. Good first rounder in this quarter with an in-form Santiago Giraldo taking on Marin Cilic. The winner there takes on Melzer and could have a realistic quarter final shot since Murray still looks lost. End result should be Nadal to the semis.

Wawrinka Quarter
A very interesting quarter with Wawrinka as the third seed and Berdych as the 6th seed at the bottom. Wawrinka was stunned Thiem in Madrid. I'd expect a bit more focused effort this week as a result. He's been consistent in Rome, but not great in his career. The quarterfinals have been his best result. Berdych scored a couple decent wins in Madrid before falling flat to Nadal again in straight sets. He has made at least the quarters three straight years here and the semis last year. He's got the tougher path with Bautista-Agut possibly and Dimitrov again in his path. Berdy beat him in 3 in Madrid. Wawrinka should have a smooth road to the quarters with maybe the Haas/Seppi winner as his toughest competition. Italian wildcards Lorenzi & Cecchinato could be intriguing for a round or two. Still, this looks a good draw for Wawrinka if he's focused.

Federer Quarter
Federer should be back on court this week after missing Madrid to be at the births of his second set of twins. If Daddy Fed is loose and ready to go, this quarter is winnable. Milos Raonic is the top seed as the #8 in the top of the quarter. You also have Tsonga & Fognini in this quarter as seeds. Federer opens against Chardy. Raonic will have one of two Italians, Bollelli or Travaglia. Raonic is 0-3 in Rome. I don't know that he'll get bit in his first match (give Bolelli the better shot), but look for Anderson, Dolgopolov or Tsonga in that next round to take him out. Fognini has never found Rome to be a great place to play with a 6-8 mark and no more than two main draw wins any year. Rosol has a chance to beat him to open. Federer made the Final and the semis in his last two trips to Rome. End result, Federer has the steadiest game in this quarter. A surprise semifinalist could be Dolgopolov or Tsonga if they build on the confidence of whom beats whom in the opener.

Djokovic Quarter
Djokovi's health is the big question. Stepanek to open for him. Robredo or Kohlschreiber will be next up. Ferrer could be in great shape for a quarterfinal run this week with a weakened Kei Nishikori as the other seed in his half. Nishikori looked great at times in Madrid, but struggled with a back problem all week. I will be somewhat surprised if Nishikori doesn't choose to rest rather than play Rome this week. If he does play, Gulbis could see a very real chance to nip him in their opener. You have to like the two top seeds in this quarter as the best chances to go deep. I'll give Gulbis an outsider's shot if the physical plagues of Nishikori and Djokovic allow him an easier route.

Futures Investments
No prices listed, but I think Nadal and Wawrinka up top show the most promise to go deep. The bottom quarters to me are a bit more questionable based on health and layoffs. Federer could be worth a look at longer odds, but I would wait until he plays a match to see how he does against Chardy to open.

[beefcake]

Very astute on the Cechhinato kid. He has been priced fairly high in those challenger events. He is more than capable to win this match if the spotlight does not get to him.

[EaglesPhan36]

The price should tell you plenty about Sijsling too in that he's only -145 right now. I see Gulbis is the favorite over Nishikori. Nice to see the books pay attention. I think Nishikori needs to take the week off.