Aren't you gonna fade Muller with Lacko @ "plus" odds??
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Nah. Muller made it past the thresh hold of a back to back week choke thanks to a lightweight 2nd match-up. Don't expect a fade, may actually back him after I look over some numbers.Comment -
2014 Season Overall Profit: +10.62Comment -
Taipei Challenger: Smith +105
Starts @ 11pm ET
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5.2.14
Parlay: Rola (Ostrava) + Duckworth (Cali) + Berdych + Raonic (Oeiras) [+178]
Last edited by EaglesPhan36; 05-02-14, 07:25 AM.Comment -
nice call with Smith EP.
He's not your typical Aussie player as he spent most of his junior time in the US ...lucky himComment -
Tallahassee Challenger
Nishioka -115Comment -
Berdych. Sheesh. Just the way this week has gone. 250s make ya crayzeeeee.Comment -
And Raonic. Betdych broke back, so some life. Milos doesn't appear to have his A game. Trouble.Comment -
Or even his C game. Ugh. Giraffe death.Comment -
Tallahassee Challenger
Ginepri -130Comment -
The Berd has taken flight by winning set #2. Can the giraffe follow?Comment -
Giraffe Fail.Comment -
Cali Challenger: Sabry +230Comment -
Par for the week. Win one. Lose one. Win one. Lose one.Comment -
An-Ning Challenger: Mektic -150
*Starts at 11pm ET
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5.3.14
ATP Madrid Qualis: Carballes Baena +120
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Ouch!..u need 2 get your bounce back EP...YOUR BETTER THAN THIS.Comment -
2014 Season Overall Profit: +10.07
Forgot, so did not post as such this week with the 250s ... but units really should be halved for these unpredictable tournaments that resemble Challengers at-times. Have to remember that for the rest of the season. Counted all wagers as full unit bets this week for the Oeiras tournet. Only 500s, Masters & Slams IMO deserve the full one unit wagers.
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5.4.14
Taipei Challenger: Smith +380
Smith may be the deer in the headlights in his 1st Final on this level or the ATP level, but given that Muller is serve or bust, I think it's a juicy shot to try. Smith was a little shakier on serve yesterday then he'd been all week, but he'll also be facing much less of a return threat than he has seen. Muller is the Challenger King right now, but Smith has seen the serve and took a set off him in qualis in Guadalajara earlier in the year. Not expecting much, but gimme a shot if Smith can hold his nerve, especially in a tie break scenario.
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2014 Season Overall Profit: +9.57Comment -
ATP Madrid Mini-View
Novak Djokovic has pulled out of the tournament with his wrist still troublesome. Mathieu enters his slot. Nadal is the top seed. Madrid has seen more tepid results for Rafa than most clay tournaments, but he is the defending Champion. Still there are serious questions with him falling flat to David Ferrer and Nicolas Almagro in his last two tournaments. Nadal says something is missing. Will he find it this week? You can be the focus will be there with a chance to stretch out his rankings lead on Djokovic in an effort to secure the top seed for the French Open. Wawrinka is your third seed this week with Federer seeded 4th. Madrid has generally been won by a top tier player with Nadal, Federer, Djokovic and Murray as the only winners since 2008.
1st/2nd Round Upset Alerts
Seppi over Verdasco [1st]
Seppi has been battling well on clay the last few weeks. He'll pose a threat to Verdasco and at around +240 is a worthy shot.
Gabashvili over Isner [1st]
Isner hasn't played since losing his 1st match in Houston to Dustin Brown, so rust could be a factor.This has never been a great tournament for Isner who is just 4-4 all-time. The surface may help Gabashvili a bit.
Dolgopolov over Fognini [1st]
Flake Central here. Dolgopolov make sense here given two dominant wins over Fognini in 2014 on both hard courts and clay.
Almagro over Murray [2nd]
Almagro must get past Golubev in his opener first. Murray has been off since Davis Cup play in April. He's been training on clay with Tsonga and Ferrer some, so it's not like he's not prepping well - but given his uneven 2014, Almagro has to be considered a great shot if he's here.
Chardy over Raonic [2nd]
Raonic seemed pretty disinterested in Portugal last week and has not played overly well in Madrid with a 2-3 mark. Chardy has a match under his belt already with a win over Rosol in the 1st round. Fukk me if I play this.
Delbonis/F.Lopez Over Youzhny [2nd]
Youzhny has continued his usual pattern of poor results prior to the calendar flipping to this time of year He may not be the betting favorite in either case against Delbonis or Lopez, but with a seed next to his name - it's an upset on paper if he loses.
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Nadal Quarter
For Rafa, the draw at least looks pleasing on paper. He does have Monaco possibly as his first opponent if he beats Melzer. Tommy Haas is the other seed in the top half of the quarter. Haas was okay in Munich, but not overly impressive. Berdych leads the bottom of the quarter with Dimitrov as the other seed. Don't totally discount either. It would be surprising for one of the top seeds in this quarter to not be the semifinalist.
Federer Quarter
Federer could quietly stalk his way into the Final here if Nadal is still missing a gear. Federer has a pleasant draw. Bautista-Agut already took the other seed out in the top half by beating Robredo and may be the next toughest opponent for Federer before the quarters. Seppi and Verdasco is a good first rounder here and the winner there might ride some momentum for another round. Bottom of the quarter features Andy Murray as the 7th seed. If he can survive, he could find Tsonga in the 3rd round.
Wawrinka Quarter
Wawrinka should love this draw. Youzhny, Raonic and Nishikori are the seeds in this quarter. Only Nishikori carries any sort of form among those. Wawrinka has no excuses for not finding himself in the quarters at-minimum. Nushukori did well here in 2013, so if he's healthy and fit - a good quarterfinal should be waiting. This quarter does not look big on surprises to me.
Ferrer Quarter
With Djokovic out, this becomes David Ferrer's quarter to win without a doubt. Isner and Fognini are the only other seeds in this quarter. Isner has been off for a while and not playing well for the most part this season. Fognini got a terrible draw with Dolgopolov to open. A win gives you Gulbis likely as he faces Janowicz. Cilic plays Sousa in the 1st round here at the bottom. With Mathieu replacing Djokovic's spot, Cilic or Gulbis has a real nice shot to get to the quarters this week. If Ferrer finds his consistency, he should be right there with them. This looks the most open quarter of the four.
Futures Investments
Federer +2200
Wawrinka +750Last edited by EaglesPhan36; 05-04-14, 04:14 PM.Comment -
Cool work as always... thank you so much for your time!Comment -
yep nice work.Was on seppi +3 and dolgopolov allready
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5.5.14 ATP Madrid
Seppi +240
F.Lopez +135
Gabashvili +105
Matosevic-Kohlschreiber Over 20.5 [-120]
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nice write up EP. i put down a future on nishikori. obviously wawa will be tough if he makes if that far, but i had to bite on his odds.
i liked seppi tomorrow too, but really like him to win a set with almost even odds. the +3.5 looks nice too.Comment -
Queasy feeling already. Passed on the Tsonga over when it bumped up 0.5 a game & had Matosevic +4.5, but decided on the over. Need stronger decisions chief.Comment -
seppi ..deuce every game and loses every game.Last edited by bababooey13; 05-05-14, 09:08 AM.Comment -
Yep so I burned myself twice already. Don't really know why I second guess shit still at this stage. Oh well. More or less normal tennis betting again. 50-50 if I'm lucky.Comment -
"Chardy over Raonic [2nd]
Raonic seemed pretty disinterested in Portugal last week and has not played overly well in Madrid with a 2-3 mark. Chardy has a match under his belt already with a win over Rosol in the 1st round. Fukk me if I play this."
Committing a Cardinal Sin here and you know it..!!Comment -
I did say fukk me IF I play this. Batting like a boss today, .250. In baseball, I'd be a billionaire.Comment -
Ep anyway Dimitrov loses today?Comment -
I'm inclined to say "no" myself, in case you're interested. I'm big on 2-0 @ 1.68.Comment -
hahaha i saw that and i was going to take the same bet hardcoar but youwager will only let me put 50 on it so not even worth itComment
