A-League Handicapping 2011/12

[MatI]

Sydney FC -
Sydney Necevski Grant Jamieson Bosschaart Beauchamp McFlynn Emerton Moriyasu Carle Chianese Cazarine
Subs Reddy Cole Mallia Coyne

AUFC Starting XI: Galekovic (C) (GK), Malik, Boogaard, Cassio, Levchenko, van Dijk, Vidosic, Watson, Ramsay, Barbiero, Usucar
Subs: Caravella, Djite, Melling, Hall (GK)

[MatI]

Also GCU are in free-fall at the moment. LOTS of injuries still, all players in tonights squad are under 23, and management have installed a 17yo debutant as captain. Coach has been removed of his duties for this game after commenting on the silliness of picking a 17yo for captaincy role. I suspect we may not even see Bleiberg back at all this year. Senior players are also pretty miffed with the decision.

hey guys, try to post the confirmed line ups when you get a chance Ty.

http://www.goal.com/en/news/808/australia/2012/02/19/2914855/gold-coast-owner-clive-palmer-the-a-league-is-a-joke-and

lol

And what did i say? Bleiberg quits this evening! That didnt take long.

Clive Palmer is the joke! What a total fool. I assume he is posturing to get out of A-league contract with all the rubbish talk. He wants a pay out from FFA to piss off I think.

[kanapad]

MatI...whats your thought on this CCM game.......something seems too easy here

[tommygun]

CCM to win!

[kanapad]

would you go here with CCM -½,-1@ -129 or just ml-162 ( a bit juicey)......it seems like both sides were playing tight games in the past....but I know that things have changed....

[tommygun]

personally i'm on the money line.

[kanapad]

will do the same.....gl

[MatI]

Yeah, just take the ML I think. The Gold Coast boys did a solid job in defence last time against Heart, and that should have give them more confidence coming into this to be able to do it again.

CCM will be too strong through, i think they can win this comfortably. But add in that its both teams playing for the second time since in 4/5 days. CCM are actually on less rest. Also new coach factor (sort of). And also GCU players are pretty much all out of contract, so they need to impress other teams if they want a job next year.

This could be a big let down spot but CCM ML for me.

[Bluedragon]

This could be a big let down spot but CCM ML for me.

I feel uneasy about your confidence here, brother. You actually feel CCM will WIN this game, or just think they won't lose and no good line for that?? Is that your reasoning behind ML?

[MatI]

I do think CCM will win. I am just not sure by how much. I am kind of expecting it to be similar to the Heart game where Gold coast defend well but ultimately fall short. I think CCM are better at finishing at the moment though, so 2-0 is likely I think. Gold Coast just have too many dramas going on, junior side with not much experience, etc.

BUT, i am concerned that the line hasn't dropped at all in the last 2-3 days. There was an initial drop, but it has just stayed constant since. I would imagine all the money is going on CCM, so im surprised it isn't moving. I am also concerned when everyone is on the same play and it would be the 'public play'. But all that is just me being paranoid i think, plenty of public plays have cashed in the A-league this season, and there is no real reason why CCM shouldnt get it done.

[Bluedragon]

I do think CCM will win. I am just not sure by how much. I am kind of expecting it to be similar to the Heart game where Gold coast defend well but ultimately fall short. I think CCM are better at finishing at the moment though, so 2-0 is likely I think. Gold Coast just have too many dramas going on, junior side with not much experience, etc.

BUT, i am concerned that the line hasn't dropped at all in the last 2-3 days. There was an initial drop, but it has just stayed constant since. I would imagine all the money is going on CCM, so im surprised it isn't moving. I am also concerned when everyone is on the same play and it would be the 'public play'. But all that is just me being paranoid i think, plenty of public plays have cashed in the A-league this season, and there is no real reason why CCM shouldnt get it done.

two of my concerns, which is the only reason i voice my uneasy feeling about your pick...not hatin' just deliberatin'

[MatI]

two of my concerns, which is the only reason i voice my uneasy feeling about your pick...not hatin' just deliberatin'

Yeah, it is. But really not enough to hold me back. What are you other concerns?

[Bluedragon]

CCM 3-4-2 record against GCU. Plus the fact that brisbane is breathing down their neck just applies extra pressure to an "away" fixture. The 6 hours past newcastle, grafton, macksville and tweed might bore the spark out of CCM too. Maybe 1 or 2 will get caught up at Byron having a root and a rum. I would get caught up at Byron with a few joints and a slab if it were me

[MatI]

Prev H2H record doesnt mean too much IMO. Both teams are very different to previous years..

Bus ride is an interesting factor for sure. And agreed, I'd still be in Byron too!! CCM do need to keep their foot on the gas though. while chances are slim, Brisbane or Perth can still catch them.

[Bluedragon]

Prev H2H record doesnt mean too much IMO. Both teams are very different to previous years..

Bus ride is an interesting factor for sure. And agreed, I'd still be in Byron too!! CCM do need to keep their foot on the gas though. while chances are slim, Brisbane or Perth can still catch them.

Well let's hope for the best

[gotov]

do they travel by bus or plane ?

[MatI]

To be honest, I always assumed they would have had driven down to Sydney for a flight out. But when I read bluedragon's post I just assumed I was wrong and they bus it to GC. It would be interesting to know for sure. I could imagine them driving to Newcastle for games, but everywhere else except Sydney i always thought they would fly.

[Bluedragon]

To be honest, I always assumed they would have had driven down to Sydney for a flight out. But when I read bluedragon's post I just assumed I was wrong and they bus it to GC. It would be interesting to know for sure. I could imagine them driving to Newcastle for games, but everywhere else except Sydney i always thought they would fly.

is there enough money for that? think about all of the peripherals that have to come...trainers, coaches, ball-sweat towel boys, etc...do the players fly, then everyone else drives and arrives minutes before the match? i just know that flying is expensive and can't see A-League being so lucky. Even NHL players bus it 5-6 hours away

[Bluedragon]

hour-20 to sydney? hour to board/check in? 30 min flight? hour from brisbane to Stadium? that's 3.5-4hours, plus hassle and cost of flying, bags, etc...add .5 hours hassle, that's 4 hours already, PLUS cost, why not save the cost and eat the next coupe hours and bus it?

[MatI]

1hr20 from Gosford to Sydney, 30min checkin/board, 1hr flight, 45 minutes airport/unload then to stadium. That's under 3.5 hrs at most. There is an airport at Gold Coast remember, and stadium only 20mins away.

Hopefully the teams leave early in the day as well.

Also, one of A-League sponsors is Qantas. I assume they sponsor by providing free or cheap tickets for travel.

[Bluedragon]

1hr20 from Gosford to Sydney, 30min checkin/board, 1hr flight, 45 minutes airport/unload then to stadium. That's under 3.5 hrs at most. There is an airport at Gold Coast remember, and stadium only 20mins away.

Hopefully the teams leave early in the day as well.

Also, one of A-League sponsors is Qantas. I assume they sponsor by providing free or cheap tickets for travel.

great point.

remember though, they would prob fly charter if they fly. too difficult to get them all on same flight, especially dependant on game ending times etc...

[MatI]

great point.

remember though, they would prob fly charter if they fly. too difficult to get them all on same flight, especially dependant on game ending times etc...

No, easy enough to get them on same flight. Especially with Qantas as sponsor. Game dates are usually known well in advance and would be block booked in one big hit.

Obviously not the case for tonights game, I think this was the one that was postponed from a few weeks ago.

[Bluedragon]

No, easy enough to get them on same flight. Especially with Qantas as sponsor. Game dates are usually known well in advance and would be block booked in one big hit.

Obviously not the case for tonights game, I think this was the one that was postponed from a few weeks ago.

yup, the one that I had riding in a massive parlay for me but ended up fukkin voiding. fukkin' hurts cuz i could realllyyy use that cash right now. just hit the casino at bet365 for the first time in my life, chased when i lost, then lost half my BR. i feel physically sick and stupid. but that's life. here's to a big CCM win...

[MatI]

No chance against the Casino!

Hopefully we get it back. tough luck mate.

[BigTimeWinner]

I am concerned that the odds on CCM win aren't dropping much considering the circumstances. The odds should've been about 1,35 for a CCM win but I don't know whats going on.

I am thinking:
CCM ML
CCM -1
T O2.5

MatI, don't forget to post the line ups when you get them, or tell us where you're getting them from so I dont bother you anymore lol Rogic himself should be able to beat the gold coast

p.s. before the game got postponed, I think CCM to win was priced at 2,1x

[Bluedragon]

No chance against the Casino!

Hopefully we get it back. tough luck mate.

funny too cuz the first time i ever hit the SBR casino, i didn't know it used your actual POINTS, i thought it was just a video game. went up 5,000 in roulette, then went all down to 0, but i had a good laugh, thinking "oh well that was good fun, glad that's only a game"...unbeknownst to me that all of my points were gone LOL. I only ever transfer my SBR points to "sportsbook" not "casino" so i didn't know they were actually cashing in my "SPORTSbook" points....haha. had about 800 to begin, then had 5,000. if i knew they WERE MY ACTUAL FUKKIN POINTS, i would have got out then. I have the worst luck, and always seems to be when I need money the most (diapers, food, books, etc)

[BigTimeWinner]

funny too cuz the first time i ever hit the SBR casino, i didn't know it used your actual POINTS, i thought it was just a video game. went up 5,000 in roulette, then went all down to 0, but i had a good laugh, thinking "oh well that was good fun, glad that's only a game"...unbeknownst to me that all of my points were gone LOL. I only ever transfer my SBR points to "sportsbook" not "casino" so i didn't know they were actually cashing in my "SPORTSbook" points....haha. had about 800 to begin, then had 5,000. if i knew they WERE MY ACTUAL FUKKIN POINTS, i would have got out then. I have the worst luck, and always seems to be when I need money the most (diapers, food, books, etc)

I'll mail you some diapers if CCM covers the -1 handicap jk
I might actually need to buy some diapers for myself if I don't win big this week

[Bluedragon]

I'll mail you some diapers if CCM covers the -1 handicap jk
I might actually need to buy some diapers for myself if I don't win big this week

LMAO...i feel you man. i am a Cancer sign, a) emotional and b) stubborn. I need a big win this weekend or I'll a) break another damn computer and b) continue to bet bigger and more stupidly....the wacky wager, the ludicrous lay, the bafoon's bet, the asinine assumption and moron's moneyline....all my specialties!

[MatI]

I am concerned that the odds on CCM win aren't dropping much considering the circumstances. The odds should've been about 1,35 for a CCM win but I don't know whats going on.

MatI, don't forget to post the line ups when you get them, or tell us where you're getting them from so I dont bother you anymore lol Rogic himself should be able to beat the gold coast

p.s. before the game got postponed, I think CCM to win was priced at 2,1x

Central Coast Mariners starting XI vs. Gold Coast United: Pasfield (Gk), Bojic, Wilkinson (C), Zwaanswijk, Rose, Griffiths, Pellegrino, McGlinchey, Rogic, Sutton, Kwasnik
Substitutes: Crane (Gk), Ibini, Hearfield, Sainsbury

Still waiting on Gold Coast line-up. I'll post it when i see it. I always check twitter for squads.

Maybe one of the reason's for the odds being where they are is Pasfield in net for CCM... i'm over thinking this too much though. I'm just going to try and enjoy the game and cheer on CCM!

[BigTimeWinner]

LMAO...i feel you man. i am a Cancer sign, a) emotional and b) stubborn. I need a big win this weekend or I'll a) break another damn computer and b) continue to bet bigger and more stupidly....the wacky wager, the ludicrous lay, the bafoon's bet, the asinine assumption and moron's moneyline....all my specialties!

HAHAHA you should suggest those types of bets to the bookies, I'll find it much easier to lose my money
No seriously, just don't rush before making a bet. Today I made a big bet on f'ing cheltenham over 2.5 like there weren't enough CHL and other higher leagues matches where I could at least watch the f'ing game. I got lucky with CSKA scoring last minute, napoli and birmingham over to save my ass (and make some profit as well ).
Off to buy the diapers before CCM starts just in case

[MatI]

Gold Coast starting 11 - Tyson Brillante Anderson Rees Mebrahtu Halloran Traore Harold Tyson Bowles Cooper
subs Barker-Daish Rigters Severino O'connor

No Thwaite. very strange. Looking good for Central Coast I reckon.

[BigTimeWinner]

Central Coast Mariners starting XI vs. Gold Coast United: Pasfield (Gk), Bojic, Wilkinson (C), Zwaanswijk, Rose, Griffiths, Pellegrino, McGlinchey, Rogic, Sutton, Kwasnik
Substitutes: Crane (Gk), Ibini, Hearfield, Sainsbury

Still waiting on Gold Coast line-up. I'll post it when i see it. I always check twitter for squads.

Maybe one of the reason's for the odds being where they are is Pasfield in net for CCM... i'm over thinking this too much though. I'm just going to try and enjoy the game and cheer on CCM!

I dont understand why Kwasnik is on the starting line up He did absolutely nothing vs wellington ... so now I guess over 2.5 looks better with the new goalie in

[MatI]

Won't matter with Kwasnik, he will be alright against the kids tonight. Rogic will hopefully have another blinder. And Sutton will be good as well. Pasfield got his first clean sheet on the weekend against Jets. He doesn't seem that bad, he just hasn't had too many games yet.

I don't really like the over in this game because I think Gold Coast will most likely play similar to they did on the weekend. Focus on not conceding. If they attack, they will get slaughtered on the counter so they need to just minimise any mistakes like they did against heart. If they do that to plan I think the score will be low.

[BigTimeWinner]

okay mate, made a bet on CCM ML and CCM -1

BTW, how many Tysons does GCU need lol

Edit: I am a member of an international forum(not english) and people are betting on gold coast w/o really having an idea what is going on in reality. I guess that is why the odds are staying up this high ...

[MatI]

Line is moving against CCM now