A-League Handicapping 2011/12

[MatI]

Melbourne have struggled to score goals these past few games and ccm are missing bozanic(or whatever his name is). Vs Brisbane they played very bad and even though they had so many chances in the first half they couldn't score... I don't like the over tbh, but hey its Australian league so anything can happen

Yeah agreed, CCM also missing Hearfield who had most of the chances last week.

I will be going with my standard fall back bet when i think it will be close, especially with both teams running make-shift/injured defences. I also like the MV forward structure with Hernandez finally starting a game. He should provide plenty of options for Archie up front. Despite MV focusing more on not conceding the last few week, I think CCM's chances of scoring against MV's swiss-cheese defence will be solid. Look for Griffiths & Kwasnik to be the main options on attack.

Both Teams to Score - YES @ 1.72

[AllTimeHigh]

Got a couple of plays - all to small stakes

Victory 1H +0
Under 2.5
Draw

[MatI]

Hernandez! Go you good thing! 1-1 after 16 minutes.

I love cashing early.

[karajohn13]

Yeah agreed, CCM also missing Hearfield who had most of the chances last week.

I will be going with my standard fall back bet when i think it will be close, especially with both teams running make-shift/injured defences. I also like the MV forward structure with Hernandez finally starting a game. He should provide plenty of options for Archie up front. Despite MV focusing more on not conceding the last few week, I think CCM's chances of scoring against MV's swiss-cheese defence will be solid. Look for Griffiths & Kwasnik to be the main options on attack.

Both Teams to Score - YES @ 1.72

Great job, already won at the 17th minute
One more for the O2.5 and we will have an ideal start for Friday

[MatI]

Thx mate. Did you play both? I hope we get more goals for you, and hopefully they come from Victory!

[teeder]

Well I tailed Mat's over pick so I feel like I'm in good shape. It's an exciting high-tempo match, almost inconceivable there isn't at least one more goal in it. (Brilliant strikes from both Rogic and Hernandez!)

[karajohn13]

Thx mate. Did you play both? I hope we get more goals for you, and hopefully they come from Victory!

I only played the over, hope I won't be disappointed

[MatI]

I only played the over, hope I won't be disappointed

2-1

Done.

[AllTimeHigh]

Argh wrong side of halftime

[karajohn13]

2-1

Done.

Yep, everything came as we did order it: BTS, O2.5, Melbourne to lead the score

[BigTimeWinner]

nice nice nice, lets crush it over the weekend

[hj68]

nice work, thanks

[MatI]

Newcastle Jets to WIN @ 2.29 - 1 unit

Pretty simple formula for me here. Heart with no Fred is pretty much guaranteed fade for me. Add in those on Olympic duty, Dugandzic, Hoffman and Behich, while injury force Thompson and Kalman out as well. Sarkies is set to play but also copped an injury during training during the week so may not be his normal self. Jets are unchanged except for Ben Kantarovski who is with the Olyroos.

Heart need to bounce back some time, but i can't see it happening here. Whoever wins out of these two should secure themselves 5th spot on the table, and while heart have some deccent young talent and depth, they have not managed a win without Fred and co and I cannot see it changing here. There has been a lot of rain around Newcastle today, but it should clear just before game time. This should make conditions some what difficult but I expect Jets to win their third game in a row.

[teeder]

Newcastle Jets to WIN @ 2.29 - 1 unit

Pretty simple formula for me here. Heart with no Fred is pretty much guaranteed fade for me. Add in those on Olympic duty, Dugandzic, Hoffman and Behich, while injury force Thompson and Kalman out as well. Sarkies is set to play but also copped an injury during training during the week so may not be his normal self. Jets are unchanged except for Ben Kantarovski who is with the Olyroos.

Heart need to bounce back some time, but i can't see it happening here. Whoever wins out of these two should secure themselves 5th spot on the table, and while heart have some deccent young talent and depth, they have not managed a win without Fred and co and I cannot see it changing here. There has been a lot of rain around Newcastle today, but it should clear just before game time. This should make conditions some what difficult but I expect Jets to win their third game in a row.

I read (on Fox Sports) that Fred's back in the squad tonight. Anyway I saw quite a bit of him at DC United and he didn't seem so much 'the straw that stirs the drink' that you make him out to be. But then I'm still pretty new to A-League so maybe he's become a lot better.

[MatI]

http://www.heraldsun.com.au/sport/soccer/melbourne-heart-captain-fred-to-miss-newcastle-jets-clash/story-e6frfg8x-1226268211598

http://www.foxsports.com.au/football/a-league/melbourne-heart-lose-brazilian-captain-fred-for-a-league-clash-with-newcastle-jets/story-e6frf4gl-1226268084962

Fred has impressed me a lot this year especially, and he seems to be crucial to the success of Melb Heart. It might just show the talent gap between Aus and overseas talent. IMO, apart from a few exceptions, the overseas imports are a step above in talent then majority of the local boys.

[BigTimeWinner]

looks like it'll be an easy home win looking at all those missings for hearts. And even with some of those players they have not impressed at all, scoring only a few goals in their recent matches. I'm hoping if the jets win this, it'll be with a big margin, so im taking the over 2.5, as usual

gl to everyone!

[MatI]

Hope so, a little worried now though, Fox commentators all just picked Jets. That's usually a bad omen.

[teeder]

Ok thanks. Here's the source I used:

http://tinyurl.com/847rehf

. . . which proves to be premature.

[BigTimeWinner]

argh, whats wrong with the pitch? they can barely pass the ball ... doesn't look like an over now that I saw the field

[MatI]

argh, whats wrong with the pitch? they can barely pass the ball ... doesn't look like an over now that I saw the field

Commentators were saying earlier that the rain missed Newcastle but from what i could tell of the radar it had definately hit the place the last 2-3 hours. I'm sure its a little water logged.

[BigTimeWinner]

ahh I see, getting better now. newcastle should realize that they can destroy heart if they just try harder when attacking ... hearts defence is sooo shaky.

THERE YOU GO!!! one good attack and they score 1-0 jets

[BigTimeWinner]

Newcastle should have scored at least one more goal by now :O two great opportunities missed ...

[MatI]

yeah definitely. Their tales are up now. Would have been nice if they got one of those other two opportunities. When Jets are getting the ball fwd they are finding gaps pretty easily which is good to see...

[BigTimeWinner]

yeah definitely. Their tales are up now. Would have been nice if they got one of those other two opportunities. When Jets are getting the ball fwd they are finding gaps pretty easily which is good to see...

exactly, and i have one word for hearts: HOPELESS. I'll be surprised if they score a goal in this match.

[Bluedragon]

commentator: "nice safe hands by the keeper, but not a great release"

[BigTimeWinner]

YAY , 3-0 cashed in the over

[MatI]

A-League, Sydney FC vs Perth Glory
Over 2.5 @ 1.87 - 1 unit

Both teams are regularly going over the total in recent games, and I dont see it changing here. Sydney have backup GK in net as Lavicka seems to have had enough of his regular. This boy is not the regular goal keeper for a reason, and shouldnt be up to defending Glory all game. Glory have also been subject to letting a few goals through while still keeping themselves well in the the game. Despite the rain earlier this afternoon I expect both teams to attack throughout and probably 3-4 goals in this game.

[BigTimeWinner]

so no important missings on the sydney - perth game? Thanks for all the info btw
also, is Brett Emerton back for sydney?

[MatI]

Not really. Emerton back for Sydney FC, which should be a boost. Perth have a couple out, Josh Mitchell and Todd Howarth, but both have been out a couple weeks now. So no major changes for either side except Sydney GK.

[MatI]

This looks like being a 1 goal game at most.

[MatI]

I am still shocked that 3rd goal came in. Nice day.

[BigTimeWinner]

hell yeah that was my luckiest pick for the past 30 days. phew , i had placed a big bet on the over, and somehow i slept while watching the game(4.30 am here lol) so when I woke up I just saw the score 2-1
I guess I should buy a tshirt that says - I love A-League

[Bluedragon]

Looking at the over tonight in Wellington. Wellington has been strong at home, I may even sprinkle on the draw

[FindTheLock]

anyone have the lineups or injuries updates/weather report, for the roar phoenix match up in an hour? I am tempted to bet on the roar because they seem to always create the better chances, but for some reason they just can't score the goals they need to get the wins. I am hoping they pull it off tonight.

[Bluedragon]

anyone have the lineups or injuries updates/weather report, for the roar phoenix match up in an hour? I am tempted to bet on the roar because they seem to always create the better chances, but for some reason they just can't score the goals they need to get the wins. I am hoping they pull it off tonight.

Wellington has won me bets last few matches, especially at home. I am glad it's on at 11:00pm (GMT -5h) here so I can watch it cuz I'm actually excited, should be a beauty.