A-League Handicapping 2011/12

MatI · 02-17-12, 01:28 AM

I think this is the perfect timing for Melbourne get one back in the W column. Fred is back, which is always good IMO. Also GCU are in free-fall at the moment. LOTS of injuries still, all players in tonights squad are under 23, and management have installed a 17yo debutant as captain. Coach has been removed of his duties for this game after commenting on the silliness of picking a 17yo for captaincy role. I suspect we may not even see Bleiberg back at all this year. Senior players are also pretty miffed with the decision.

EDIT- Actually, 2 players for GCU will be over 23.

BigTimeWinner · 02-17-12, 01:47 AM

is gold coast with the same line up as in the match vs adelaide? they played very well in that match tbh and maybe they should've gotten a draw. I'm probably going to end up betting over 2.5 but let's see...

MatI · 02-17-12, 02:07 AM

Originally posted by BigTimeWinner

is gold coast with the same line up as in the match vs adelaide? they played very well in that match tbh and maybe they should've gotten a draw. I'm probably going to end up betting over 2.5 but let's see...

There are two changes im aware of for GCU. Regular captian Michael Thwaite is suspended after his 5th yellow card in previous match, and the on-loan Jonas Salley has finished his spell with the club. To replace them for this match, GCU have brought in two 17 year olds, Mitch Cooper (new captain for this game) and Jake Barker-Daish. Both seem very talented, especially Cooper, but I don't think we should expect to much from either, especially with all the dramas going on at the moment at the club.

Sol · 02-17-12, 02:13 AM

I am thinking the O2.5 as well. Heart need a win and GC have nothing to lose but it's hard to tell how either team will respond, with Heart struggling of late and GC with their dramas.

MatI · 02-17-12, 02:31 AM

I was thinking Over 2.5 might be a good bet, but I think that is me thinking GCU will get demolished. With Heart having Fred back, they should have a lot more options on the attack, but Heart have not scored more than 1 goal in a game since they beat victory in the derby in late December. Goal coast are in a similar position, having not scored more than 1 goal since Jan 4. And with recent team changes, I expect them to play a more defensive game tonight, as that will be the only chance they have of any points IMO. I'll be staying off the over and just sticking with the parlay I put in yesterday.

finfan88 · 02-17-12, 02:35 AM

whats ur parlay?

BigTimeWinner · 02-17-12, 02:37 AM

mate, I watched the gold coast game vs adelaide few days back, and they should have scored about 4-5 goals, one on one with the GK, and they hit the post once or twice.
But I remember the captain was their best player and the other guy Salley was their second best player, and they lost. Today both of them are missing. Tbh Heart should win by 3-4 goals difference here, but I took the over 2.5 just to stay on a 'safer side'.
GL

MatI · 02-17-12, 02:44 AM

Originally posted by finfan88

whats ur parlay?

[AFC Champions League]ADELAIDE UNITED vs JAYAPURA, Over 2.5 / [A-League]Melbourne Heart to WIN @ 2.12 - 1 unit

First leg played last night...

MatI · 02-17-12, 02:49 AM

Originally posted by BigTimeWinner

mate, I watched the gold coast game vs adelaide few days back, and they should have scored about 4-5 goals, one on one with the GK, and they hit the post once or twice.
But I remember the captain was their best player and the other guy Salley was their second best player, and they lost. Today both of them are missing. Tbh Heart should win by 3-4 goals difference here, but I took the over 2.5 just to stay on a 'safer side'.
GL

GL to you too.

I did miss that game on the weekend, but one thing I know is most of these teams are consistent at missing easy shots! It was the same story for Adelaide in the AFC game last night, they should have had 5 or 6 goals comfortably. I am just a little nervous about taking the over in this one but my hunch is that it should happen. I hope your right about a 3-4 Heat win!

moshi · 02-17-12, 02:54 AM

Do you guys reckon 4+ goals will hit? I don't have an 'over 2.5' option.

MatI · 02-17-12, 03:28 AM

Originally posted by moshi

Do you guys reckon 4+ goals will hit? I don't have an 'over 2.5' option.

Personally, I wouldn't touch that option.

finfan88 · 02-17-12, 03:31 AM

the sharps r betting on MEL HEART........check the lines...

tommygun · 02-17-12, 03:43 AM

Possible score line boys?

MatI · 02-17-12, 03:49 AM

Really hard to pick for this. I am thinking 1-0 or 2-0, but a lot people like this to go over...

BigTimeWinner · 02-17-12, 04:03 AM

well heart is really gonna decide to go all in or they'll just keep missing chances like they did so far... against a team of 17 years old players :O
I reckon a 1-0 or a 3-1, just a wild guess

finfan88 · 02-17-12, 04:16 AM

i see 3-1 mel heart

MatI · 02-17-12, 05:06 AM

A few wasted opportunities and some silly finishing by Melbourne Heart in the first half. Step it up boys!!

naoeneko · 02-17-12, 05:31 AM

Heart's finishing saddens me.

MatI · 02-17-12, 05:39 AM

yep, very hard to watch. I can't believe they are going to let this one slip away.

naoeneko · 02-17-12, 05:41 AM

They scored!?

Haha, I bet Hearts to win @ 2.5 inplay @ 70' lol.

MatI · 02-17-12, 05:42 AM

<--- me in my lounge room..

naoeneko · 02-17-12, 05:43 AM

Yeah, same for me, although I'm guessing I'll lose the TO2.5 =/

crblahblah · 02-17-12, 05:43 AM

Yes! Goal! I have Hearts at -1 but will gladly take a push, all things considered. They've been missing out on good opportunities all match. Hope they hang on.

MatI · 02-17-12, 06:02 AM

That was too close for comfort, but Heart win 1-0. Babalj coming on was a game changer.

I did warn about the over guys!

Sol · 02-17-12, 06:08 AM

Read that one wrong

Puda · 02-17-12, 07:01 AM

Originally posted by crblahblah

Yes! Goal! I have Hearts at -1 but will gladly take a push, all things considered. They've been missing out on good opportunities all match. Hope they hang on.

does your booky give you a push on that,

Swizly · 02-17-12, 11:10 PM

Heart to win to nil (i'm a heart fan)

Going to leave all of today's matches personally, very tricky

kanapad · 02-18-12, 12:03 AM

any thoughts on upcoming games? my leans:
Central Coast Mariners (AUS-A)* -½ -128
Brisbane Roar (AUS-A)* -164
Newcastle Jets (AUS-A)/Perth Glory (AUS-A)* Over 2½ -113

good luck

MatI · 02-18-12, 12:08 AM

Nice call, and welcome Swizl.

It's probably a smart move staying away from today's A-League. Hard to get a good feel for how these will play out. Although I am pretty confident Roar will get another win tonight. I am going to play the early game too-

Wellington Phoenix +0.5 @ 2.12

CCM are top of the table but have now lost two in a row. They are still without three of their best players; Mat Ryan, Oliver Bozanic and Mustafa Amini on Olympic duty. They will also go into this game without Sainsbury and Sam Gallagher due to suspension. We also can't forget that Matt Simon has moved on, and IMO opinion, without Ryan, Bozanic, Amini & Simon, CCM have just not been the same. CCM will start English import John Sutton who has moved from the Heart's straight into the starting XI and he will be one to watch, but I think coming from freezing Scotland to warm down under will takes it's toll on him today. He should take a couple of games atleast to become comfortable and effective for CCM.

There are also a few changes for Wellington. Andrew Durante and Tim Brown will miss out due to suspension. This will definitely hurt them but Manny Muscat will be back from his suspension and Nicky Ward recovered from injury (but starting on the bench), which will be a big positive.

I think both will be defensively minded in this game, desperate not to drop the full points. I see a draw a very real possibility but if anyone strikes through for the win, it will be the sheep fuckers i think.

kanapad · 02-18-12, 12:20 AM

thanks Mat.....I was considering a low scoring draw in CCM game but I will make a small play on home team here. I really like Roar and over 2.5 in this game as well as Perth/ Newcastle ....seems like Jets present good form now and Glory been scoring lately...

MatI · 02-18-12, 12:24 AM

Yeah, i like those other options too. I'm still tossing up weather I just take Roar ML or go the over in that game. Will only pick one. Also, keep in mind Schmeltz is out for Glory I believe, so they may struggle to score as often as they have. Having said that, he hasnt been the one to score for them lately!

kanapad · 02-18-12, 12:30 AM

thanks MatI, and good luck

Swizly · 02-18-12, 12:32 AM

Agree with all of that. Durante and Brown are big losses but Muscat has been a rock this season.

Interesting to see how Rogic plays after a decent performance last week. Good luck

MatI · 02-18-12, 06:48 PM

Originally posted by Swizly

Agree with all of that. Durante and Brown are big losses but Muscat has been a rock this season.

Interesting to see how Rogic plays after a decent performance last week. Good luck

Rogic had a great game! Talented kid that one.

BigTimeWinner · 02-18-12, 11:28 PM

hey guys, try to post the confirmed line ups when you get a chance

Ty.

Error 404

http://www.goal.com/en/news/808/australia/2012/02/19/2914855/gold-coast-owner-clive-palmer-the-a-league-is-a-joke-and

lol