TomJSports Soccer Picks - Bundesliga/Champ League/Internat'l/Other

[TomJSports]

yeah, we should. they're making me nervous with badstuber's sending off. damn you, holger!!!

[decado]

i think i will be going big on bayern's home win against villareal. no matter what, we must win.
also i don't want a 'group final' match at man city.

[TomJSports]

yeah, no kidding. they'll be playing for the win for sure. enjoy the game, i'm sure that'll be incredible. i sure hope schweini is okay.

[decado]

yeah, no kidding. they'll be playing for the win for sure. enjoy the game, i'm sure that'll be incredible. i sure hope schweini is okay.

damn, apparently six weeks out for schweinsteiger. clean fractured collar bone.

http://www.fcbayern.telekom.de/en/news/news/2011/31927.php

müller as central midfield behind gomez and kroos will take schweini's place. robben needs to come back asap.

[TomJSports]

That's no good. I'd just as soon play Tymoschuk at holding and just keep the front in tact. I like Kroos up front. I assume Alaba gets more time now. Might be a solid cheap pickup for CL fantasy. Hope he's alright, collarbones recover easier in football, you just have to play a little less aggressive when you come back (bad for Schweini). Plenty of friends broke collarbones in hockey, that's when you're out for months and months. This should be an easy surgery with it not involving other bones or muscles. I'm sure it hurt like hell though.

[TomJSports]

missed the early EL games

[decado]

missed the early EL games

only thing i took is o3 with hannover. i wanted to take PSV over but i hesitated. would've been a good choice, but surprising to see PSV losing.

you have anything for late games? im probably on schalke over as well and maybe twente/odense.

[TomJSports]

Missed them too. I would've done those overs, and maybe Malmö +1.5 and under in that one. Those games in the Ukraine aren't high scoring, probably the Ukrainians winning 1-0.

[TomJSports]

only thing i took is o3 with hannover. i wanted to take PSV over but i hesitated. would've been a good choice, but surprising to see PSV losing.

you have anything for late games? im probably on schalke over as well and maybe twente/odense.

Missed them too. I would've done those overs, and maybe Malmö +1.5 and under in that one. Those games in the Ukraine aren't high scoring, probably the Ukrainians winning 1-0.

Schalke was laughable. Twente over hit. I looked spot on with the Malmö play at half. Then who knows what happened in the second.

[NYSportsGuy210]

Any plays for today Tom J?

[Exxpresso]

I think VfB Stuttgart pk has a great value at + odds. What do you think ? Mainz lost 5 in a row at home and their defense is horrible. VfB should use this with 2-3 goals.

[leetfox]

Yeah, i would like to hear your opinion about that game too. Stuttgart odds looks too good to be true.

[decado]

Yeah, i would like to hear your opinion about that game too. Stuttgart odds looks too good to be true.

odds are about even on both teams which is normal when two same-strenght teams meet up. mainz has better odds only because of their home advantage and their not-winning streak. they are not a bad team at all and are due for a win. we will most likely see a draw here,

+0 is good, but stuttgart may as well lose the game if they have a bad day or mainz has a good day. all in all, it's unforeseeable, even with o/u. both could score a lot or the game ends 0-0.

as for me, i only played the over and will think about +0 on stuttgart, maybe after the lineup comes out or during live-play.

[leetfox]

Placed 15 units on Stuttgart already. Either way, this should be interesting match. Good luck all!

[SlowNsteady]

Placed 15 units on Stuttgart already. Either way, this should be interesting match. Good luck all!

15 Units? Damn!

[Sniperpicks]

I see Stuttgart as Moneyline +155 and Goals -130 , whats the difference here? these matches dont go into a 3rd period or PK to decide a winner do they?

why not just take the ML ?

[TomJSports]

I just observed today.

I had Fortuna 3 - Dresden 1...line was -1.5, Fortuna only won 2-1, so I would've lost that. o3 would've drawn.
I had Karlsruhe 3 - Ingolstadt 1...I would've hit the over and the winner
I had Braunschweig 2 - Union 1...I would've lost because Union won 2-1 and I would've hit the over.

I have Stuttgart winning on the road 2-1 against Mainz, for what it's worth. Still debating on playing it.

[NYSportsGuy210]

I played the OVER 2.5 big.

[decado]

I see Stuttgart as Moneyline +155 and Goals -130 , whats the difference here? these matches dont go into a 3rd period or PK to decide a winner do they? why not just take the ML ?

not sure if i understand your right. there's no extra time, just 90mins.
german matches are usually high scoring, 3 or more goals are likely to happen.

i think your book offers o/u2.5, even so -130 really low, should be around -110 right now.

besides these games can DRAW, so your ML bet on stuttgart is not a sure win. PK spread would be more likely since match-ups like this draw a lot as well.

[Sniperpicks]

thanks decado

not looking at TOTAL - over under though, thats differnt # and odds

I see Stuttgart PK-130 under the column for GOALS

also can take Stuttgart Moneyline +155

over is 2.5 and -115

whats the reason for taking GOALS instead of Moneyline on Stuttgart ?

[TomJSports]

Laid off. Mainz is 1-1-0 at home and 1-2-1 overall in the last four between the two. Matches have been Stuttgart 1-0, Mainz 2-0, 2-2 draw, 1-1 draw. Not going to play it even though I'm pretty sure Stuttgart wins 2-1, 3-1, something like that. Good luck on this one, guys.

[decado]

the reason for taking GOALS instead of Moneyline on Stuttgart ?

PK it is basically a draw-no-bet. meaning, if the game ends in a draw, you'll get your money back (push).
if you bet ML and it ends in a draw, you lose your wager.

[Sniperpicks]

OK great thanks, i went with the ML

[TomJSports]

Laid off. Mainz is 1-1-0 at home and 1-2-1 overall in the last four between the two. Matches have been Stuttgart 1-0, Mainz 2-0, 2-2 draw, 1-1 draw. Not going to play it even though I'm pretty sure Stuttgart wins 2-1, 3-1, something like that. Good luck on this one, guys.

Well that's not going to happen. Should've gone with the over, especially with this second half. Would've lost thinking Stuttgart would win...unless they can score another 3 in the last 20.

[decado]

Well that's not going to happen. Should've gone with the over, especially with this second half. Would've lost thinking Stuttgart would win...unless they can score another 3 in the last 20.

ridiculous penalty. stuttgart broke and mainz got the momentum out of it. last 20mins will be tough, but i doubt stuttgart can even out. i'm already happy with my over.

[TomJSports]

Bundesliga
FCN -0.75 v. Freiburg -110 5x
Gladbach win v. Hertha +245 5x
Gladbach +0.25 v. Hertha -105 5x

2.Bundesliga
1860 win v. Bochum +105 10x
1860/Bochum o2.75 -105 10x

Probably went a little too heavy on that Bundy-2 matchup, but oh well, such is life. I really really liked those odds. Minor Analysis in the Bundesliga thread; got busy and have to leave town. May post Bayern play with my phone, have to see what they do with Schweini out. May play the EPL parlay I mentioned. Suggestions definitely welcome for EPL.

[Boxing Champ]

Hey Tom are you playing Brisbane Roar or the Over 2.5...vs Melbourne V????
Both are at even money...

[MrGerrard]

Yet another great day in Germany!
Thx Tom

[decado]

think we can score 2+ goals difference vs augsburg without schweini?
i'm afraid we'll have a totally different game, much like slow paced crap from last season when the midfielders had zero ideas.

[TomJSports]

I love Alaba. He'll keep up the creativity. I went ridiculously heavy homer today:

Bayern -2.5 v. Augsburg +125 10x
Bayern -1 v. Augsburg -110 5x

Probably could gone more on the first. I think they do well, Augsburg is bad. Bayer and Werder showed why I have no faith in them yesterday. Schalke is the same way today. BVB actually played like they should.

Will make things pretty when I get home. Watch Augsburg pull off miracle.

[decado]

looking good, but bayern will go extremely easy in 2H. hope they score at least one more goal though.

and please some new faces. heyneckes seems not to be a fan of substitutions. love to see petersen and usami coming in early.

[TomJSports]

No kidding. He kept the big guns in way too long and got complacent. Oh well. A win is a win. But I too would have liked Usami and Nils to get some time. And I knew the first half over was he better bet and bet opposite. Hahaha.

[escou]

hey TJ what do you recon, will Eintracht win today and pay back the losses they costs us last week?

[TomJSports]

Eintract should and will win this, just have to determine how much I want to wager. Aue has some wins, but not against a truly good squad, St. Pauli doesn't count. That road win in St. Pauli is still a bit fresh to me, but Aue lost 4-0 or 4-2 to Fortuna in Saxony, cannot remember which.

[Sniperpicks]

would you lay -1 on EINT and get +105 or take the ML at -170 ?