TomJSports Soccer Picks - Bundesliga/Champ League/Internat'l/Other

[swordsandtequila]

Werder/VfB should be an over. I'm not confident enough to play it. Best of luck friends!

1.5-0.5-0 (15x) on the day and 7-1-0 in the last 8 (90x). Undefeated in eight is a a pretty good way to defeat that 2-0-5 blemish I started at. 9-1-5, total.

I played it; here's hoping!

[zizoudane10]

Easiest money this month. Just came back, hope you played it BIG.

[Enkhbat]

Great night TomJ tailed you on both games

[TomJSports]

Thanks. Couldn't look into these games well enough. Glad I didn't play anything early, because it might have gotten ugly. The Pens/Flyers game turned the sports world a but upside down for me.

Still eyeing this Bayern game in an hour. Bayern should beat the big, bit same with Augsberg a couple weeks ago, too. And for whatever reason Mainz matches up well against Bayern, are 3-0-2 in the last 5 against Bayern including a win in Allianz last year. Probably will still make the homer bet, but it may be small.

[BigBurk]

Tom, just curious; I see you rate your plays to 5x or 10x and above mostly. What's the point in having a standard play size of an average of 10 units? I understand it looks great to be able to say hey I'm up 90 units, but it's more like inflating a record, no?

[TomJSports]

Yeah, each 'unit' is 0.1%. So each bet it typically 1% or 10x. I like percentages better than units personally, when playing. For tracking, people like units, so I try to accommodate. I think I said somewhere in my first couple posts that my 'units' are probably like 5 or 10 times most people's. I have no idea where or why I picked up the 5x, 10x, 20x for 0.5%, 1%, and 2%, but it's a hard habit to break.

[BigBurk]

Ah ok I understand! So basically 10 units for you would be like 0.5 units for most people (as most people use approx 2% of their br as a unit).

I went 0-2 on my German bets today so your input would be helpfull on future wagers!

[TomJSports]

Yeah, I never can remember if 'normal' people have a 1% 'unit' or 2% 'unit'. Like I said, no idea where or why I picked up the notation, but old habits die hard. Not trying to 'inflate' my records by any means, as I probably bet less per play than the average bettor.

As far as Bundesliga yesterday, it was a mess. No question I wouldn't have done well there either in all likelihood. Absolutely ridiculous results all around, and not just the FCB/M05 match.

[TomJSports]

Posted on the 15-Apr blog

13:30 CET (7:30 EST) 2.Bundesliga 1860 to win v. Bochum +200 10x
13:30 CET (7:30 EST) 2.Bundesliga Paderborn -0.75 v. Cottbus +104 10x
17:00 CET (11:00 EST) Superettan Ängelholm -0.75 v. Västerås -103 10x
17:30 CET (11:30 EST) Allsvenskan Åtvidaberg win v. Mjällby +259 10x
17:30 CET (11:30 EST) 1.Bundesliga Freiburg/Hoffenheim o2.75 -107 10x

So kind of a big card today. I've been on a roll. The Åtvidaberg and 1860 plays are mainly due to favourable lines. They won't have full lineups, but still are playing lesser opponents, especially in the case 1860. Åtvidaberg's wheels will fall off some time after promotion, but Mjällby is a poor squad and +259 is great value. And remember my plays are to win. So in the Munich case, it's risking 5x to make 10x.

The Bundesliga matchup is going back to the Cardinal Rule of Bundesliga: midtier matchups are (almost) always overs. Freiburg has been scoring at a very solid clip at home, as has Hoffenheim on the road. Last week Hoffenheim put in four on HSV, but Freiburg should have a more solid defense than them. Regardless, I do like there to be four. Maybe a repeat of the 2-2 draw that Freiburg experienced last week, but it would be fun to watch a 3-1 Freiburg win.

I love Paderborn vs. Cottbus. Paderborn isn't as strong as they were earlier in the season, but Cottbus is in disarray. Paderborn should get the win, and possibly by two. With Paderborn fighting for promotion, albeit unrealistically, they'll go for the jugular here.

Down in Superettan, Ängelholm beat Västerås twice last year, and I expect the same to continue, as there haven't been too many changes to either squads' lineups. Västerås will be fighting to avoid relegation all year, and Ängelholm will be fighting to make it to Allsvenskan.

In Superettan, BP beat Falkenberg plenty last year, but it's early and these two teams could combine for anything. In Allsvenskan, Göteborg has started poorly and Örebro has been, as expected: poor. Anything could happen in that one. AIK and Syrianska featured an abandoned match last year, but with it early and AIK underperforming, it's tough to call. In 2.Bundesliga, I really want to take the Bavarian squad Ingolstadt over Karlsruhe, but with recent results and critical points to avoid relegation, it's tough to call. And with the other 1.Bundesliga match, Köln is garbage, I feel really sorry for Podo. But it is Podo, and he could get a hat trick at anytime. Gladbach should easily get the win, but are underperforming with a depleted squad. Too tough to call, under/over or winner.

Swept the NHL last night 2-0-0 thanks to an OT winner. Thought it was over with that five minute major. 15-1-3 (14.1%) is great and 10 straight wins (2 half wins, so 9-1-0) is even better.

Good luck today

[TomJSports]

Oops, Freiburg/Hoffenheim was +108.

[swordsandtequila]

Good luck today Tom

[swordsandtequila]

Both Swedish teams with red cards, , though Angelholms hanging on. Hold the fort, boys!

[swordsandtequila]

Can't foresee red cards Tom; it's all good. Good thing about soccer, there's always another match!

[TomJSports]

Yeah, no worries. Should have made a disclaimer that those plays on +200 or more liens were heavily influences by lines. I even knew Åtvidaberg was due for a stinker. 1860 should've gotten that, but that's the way it goes like you said. Freiburg/Hoffenheim just capped off an absolutely bizarre 1.Bundesliga week. So all it all wasn't a terrible day, more like a moderate/bad day. Definitely not the clip it was going.

That Flyers/Pens game took it out of me. Will take a bit to get my sanity back.

[TomJSports]

Not much in Germany and Sweden standing out to me. Swedish season is too young, and looking at past seasons put a lot of matches at pick 'ems. Arsenal and Wigan is intriguing because Arsenal by two should happen, but Wigan has me weary with that ManU result.

No official plays, but I do like the looks of two dogs. Dresden over Fortuna at +314. Norbert Meier is saying the right things, but fact is his boys have been in a tailspin as of late and Dresden is playing much better of late. The Saxons should get the upset on their home pitch. Also, in the Superettan, I like recently promoted Umeå to take down Hammarby at +275. Hammarby is middle-of-the-road Superettan team and may not be taking the third tier Umeå squad seriously. Umeå is certainly not a great team, but they could pull of a surprise a la Åtvidaberg or Norrköping. Plus, travel to Västerbotten should prove to be a massive pain for the Southern Swedes.

Then again, I was 0-2 on the dog plays yesterday, so tread lightly.

Good luck

[TomJSports]

Best value today was in Finland:

17:30 CET (11:30 EST) Veikkausliga MYPA to win v. FF Jaro +155 10x
17:30 CET (1:30 EST) Veikkausliga JJK -0.75 v. Haka -106 10x

I like both of these Veikkausliga plays a lot. MYPA beat FF Jaro all three times they played last year, including two in Jakobstad. With the match in Myllykoski, and Jaro still not a great team with the potential for demotion, MYPA should certainly take this one. PK is a decent play at -122 for draw protection, but I'm confident in the win. JJK Jyväskylä is a great home side last year and historically. And like MYPA, they defeated their opponent in all three contests last year. Two of them by two goals and one by one. I took the 0.75 for the half win if it is by one and full win if by two. JJK should get off to a good start at home in the Veikkausliga and eye a Europa League berth, yet again. Haka, on the other hand, will be with FF Jaro in the bottom of the standings.

In some other prominent Veikkausliga matches, Mariehamn should grab a win against KuPS courtesy of home pitch. HJK is the perennially best team in Finland, but TPS can beat them at home, so I stayed away. Inter Turku is another primer team, but VPS can be troublesome at home. In most of these, it's too early to see how goals will go. I couldn't pick a winner in the Superettan match with both squads looking relatively good and split results the last couple of seasons. Ängelholm would take it, if it were home, in my opinion. UEFA Europa League are another couple of tough calls. Atlético and Valencia have been under in matches between them, but are over squads. And Sporting should win at home, but Bilbao really wants this title.

Last batch of games, I didn't fare great on the W-L column, but the units weren't too bad. 1.5-0.5-3 for a loss of 3.89 or 0.39%.

Good luck!

[swordsandtequila]

Good luck today .

[robert_wrath]

How do you feel about the Valencia game?

[zizoudane10]

I do like the MYPA play. Just looked really quick at some things, and like the price here. So I'm with you with 100€ on this one, just a small, cause like I said, I'm more or less just tailing with this pick. Didn't put work in it. Lets get this one man, BOL

[TomJSports]

Good luck today .

Thanks. 1-0-1 because Jyväskylä was absolute crap.

How do you feel about the Valencia game?

I like under based on recent results between the two, but really couldn't pick anything with those two.

I do like the MYPA play. Just looked really quick at some things, and like the price here. So I'm with you with 100€ on this one, just a small, cause like I said, I'm more or less just tailing with this pick. Didn't put work in it. Lets get this one man, BOL

MyPa ended up being the one to tail, that's for sure.

[zizoudane10]

Yeah, just came back and checked the result, good work man! A nice hit for a nice price!

[Enkhbat]

Who do you like this weekend in Bundesliga?

[swordsandtequila]

Where you at Tom? Come out, come out, wherever you are!