BigBurk's 2011/2012 Dutch Soccer Thread

[BigBurk]

Adding two more units to the Vitesse play, so (since the line has changed);

08/20/11 FC Utrecht (Eredivisie)/Vitesse* -111 (Eredivisie) *LOCKED* (1 unit)

08/20/11 FC Utrecht (Eredivisie)/Vitesse* -125 (Eredivisie) *LOCKED* (2 units)

[BigBurk]

Adding two more units to the Vitesse play, so (since the line has changed);

08/20/11 FC Utrecht (Eredivisie)/Vitesse* -111 (Eredivisie) *LOCKED* (1 unit) *WINNER*


08/20/11 FC Utrecht (Eredivisie)/Vitesse* -125 (Eredivisie) *LOCKED* (2 units) *WINNER*

08/20/11 De Graafschap (Eredivisie)/Excelsior (Eredivisie) over 2.5 -154* *LOCKED* (1 unit) *LOSS*

08/20/11 FC Twente* +120 (Eredivisie)/SC Heerenveen (Eredivisie)*LOCKED* (1 unit) *WINNER*

We were due for some winners! Luckily Vitesse hit the winner in the 89th minute, too bad Excelsior - De Graafschap were stuck on the two goals.. Let's hope we get some back again tomorrow to end the weekend well and get in + units!

[BigBurk]

Pending for tomorrows matches:

08/21/11 Ajax* -1,5 -151 (Eredivisie)/VVV Venlo (Eredivisie) *LOCKED* (2 units)

Thinking about playing the under in the late match from PSV at ADO Den Haag. Not sure yet though!

[BigBurk]

08/21/11 PSV (Eredivisie)/ADO Den Haag (Eredivisie) under 3.5 -161* *LOCKED* (1 unit)

PSV can't seem to find the net in the latest few games whilst I don't expect ADO to get a goal without a decent striker against PSV. Mertens (PSV's only goal scorer this season) is expected to be out so that won't help em also. Let's hope PSV doesn't **** me again.

[BigBurk]

08/21/11 Feyenoord* AH +0 +118 (Eredivisie)/Heracles Almelo (Eredivisie) *LOCKED* (1 unit)

Heracles hasn't impressed me as of yet, with a 2-2 draw at RKC and a 2-1 win at home against NAC (with a penaly they really did not deserve). Feyenoord on the other hand has proven to play quite well lately with Koeman as the new head coach. To rule out the chance of a draw I decided to play the AH. Just don't see Heracles taking this one.

[BigBurk]

That's it for today! Don't see enough value in playing a total and/or side on the AZ game.

[BigBurk]

08/21/11 Feyenoord* AH +0 +118 (Eredivisie)/Heracles Almelo (Eredivisie) *LOCKED* (1 unit) *PUSH*

Heracles hasn't impressed me as of yet, with a 2-2 draw at RKC and a 2-1 win at home against NAC (with a penaly they really did not deserve). Feyenoord on the other hand has proven to play quite well lately with Koeman as the new head coach. To rule out the chance of a draw I decided to play the AH. Just don't see Heracles taking this one.

Feyenoord with the late equalizer in a match not worth watching.

[BigBurk]

08/21/11 NEC (Eredivisie)/AZ* 2H -118 (Eredivisie) *LOCKED* (1 unit)

[BigBurk]

Live in game (1-0 right now VVV, 50th minute)

08/21/11 Ajax* +135 (Eredivisie)/VVV (Eredivisie) *LOCKED* (2 units)

[BigBurk]

08/21/11 Ajax* +135 (Eredivisie)/VVV (Eredivisie) *LOCKED* (2 units) *LOSS*
08/21/11 Ajax* -1,5 -151 (Eredivisie)/VVV Venlo (Eredivisie) *LOCKED* (2 units) *LOSS*

08/21/11 NEC (Eredivisie)/AZ* 2H -118 (Eredivisie) *LOCKED* (1 unit) *WINNER*

Well, what can I say about Ajax.. Right after I placed the live bet VVV scored the 2-0. Ajax managed to come back tot 2-2 in the 68th and 69th minute but never looked like getting the win. Heavy loss on them accordingly..

AZ crushed NEC in the 2H; 4-0.

PSV at ADO starting in couple of mins; lets hope they don't make this weekend worse than it already is.

[BigBurk]

YTD 9-12-1 -5,05 units (40,9%)

[escou]

Ajax missed tons and tons ...

[BigBurk]

Ajax missed tons and tons ...

Horrible to say the least. I never got the feeling they wanted the win badly. Whilst after the 1H I had the feeling this would be a 0-3 type of game.

But what do you expect with D. Blind at left back...

[BigBurk]

25 minutes played and PSV is up 0-2. Ugh...

[escou]

It was about time PSV scored some goals, cuz they want to stay in the battle for the league I guess...

[BigBurk]

It was about time PSV scored some goals, cuz they want to stay in the battle for the league I guess...

Please let them settle for 0-3.

[escou]

Well they did after all

[BigBurk]

Well they did after all

Luckily! It's a tough start of the season!

[BigBurk]

08/21/11 PSV (Eredivisie)/ADO Den Haag (Eredivisie) under 3.5 -161* *LOCKED* (1 unit) *WINNER*

PSV can't seem to find the net in the latest few games whilst I don't expect ADO to get a goal without a decent striker against PSV. Mertens (PSV's only goal scorer this season) is expected to be out so that won't help em also. Let's hope PSV doesn't **** me again.

0-3 after 30 mins.. (Mertens did play, scored one) so luck finally turned a bit with that being the final score also. 1 unit winner to lower the losses made.

[BigBurk]

YTD 10-12-1 -4,05 units (43,48%)

[BigBurk]

08/22/11 Willem II (Jupiler League) pk,-½ -108* /Dordrecht (Jupiler League) *LOCKED* (3 units)

Playing this Jupiler League (Dutch 2nd division) match tonight. Won't play much games in the Jupiler League but this one seems like a good value bet.

[BigBurk]

It's a cruel world lately! Willem II got their ass handed to them; 3-2 loss.

Going to tweak some things and bounce back from the losses lately. This is unacceptable

[escou]

Maaaan just take the over on a game like that instead of choosing a side, infact easiest system for small and not so small wins is just take the over on most appropriate games is holland both devisions and preferably live, although there are a bunch of goals in the first 15 minutes but not that many ...

[BigBurk]

Would you have said the same thing if the match ended in 1-0?

Problem is that, since there tend to be a lot of goals in Holland, the bookies juice the overs like crazy! Or you have to take over 3,5. 2,5 is too juiced most of the times.

[BigBurk]

08/26/11 Vitesse (Eredivisie)/Ajax (Eredivisie) Over 3½ -117* *LOCKED* (2 units)

Playing the over on the Vitesse at Ajax match this friday. Vitesse playing at Ajax is almost a guarantee for a lot of goals being scored (4.2 avg last 5 games, with a 4-2 score last year) and I don't expect this year being any different. I expect Ajax to take this one with a result somewhat like 3-1/4-1. Ajax' last 5 Eredivisie home matches resulted in an average of 4 goals being scored with their last 3 home matches all to go over 3.5 goals.

Vitesse has begun this season quite well with only suffering 1 goal (home win against Utrecht) and gaining 7 points in their first 3 matches, just like Ajax. Looking at Vitesse's last 5 Eredivisie away matches the average goals scored is 3.4 whilst their season opener at ADO ended in a goal-less draw.

Although both teams gained 7 points from their first 3 meetings I expect Ajax to easily win this one with a lot of goals being scored to wash away the horrible match at VVV last weekend, where they had almost 30 shots but didn't manage to get the win.

[escou]

Would you have said the same thing if the match ended in 1-0?

Problem is that, since there tend to be a lot of goals in Holland, the bookies juice the overs like crazy! Or you have to take over 3,5. 2,5 is too juiced most of the times.

hehe ofcourse not, but I had some luck during the weekend with overs in the lower Dutch devision that is why I am saying it, I know they juice it, but I have noticed you give out live (in-play) picks as well, so that is why I thought you play some of the games in-play and then it is totally worth it, since you most probably very well know that most of the goals come in the second half and most of all in the last 15-20min so taking over 2 or 1.5 on the 30-35 min mark is worth it for me, as you say over 3.5 is not a smart move, but I noticed that most of the games this week had a decent 2.5 or 3 at the start of the game and even 2/2.5 at the 10 min mark which is an amazing value for me. Ofcourse you can never predict, this is sports and luck comes with it. GL with your picks

[BigBurk]

All very true! I don't really bet much in-play since I am not at home most of the time the matches take place. But yeah, you get some amazing values if you wait 10-15 mins! If you only look at the Ogucci guy on this forum who only does live in-play bets; amazing value with very good results.

Do you document your pics somewhere by the way? Just curious!

[escou]

Yeah Ogucci is great I learned from him and played alot of his bets in the past, dont't have so much spare time for that right now, but I like to stay on the computer during the weekends when most games are on and play similar to his system but for the whole game, I like over 2 and over 1.5 as said sometimes over 1/1.5 or 1 even depending on the game, I dont document them anywhere as I am not a true pro, but I only play on 188bet so I have them there when I need them. Funny enough the system with the goals works much better that choosing a side, alot of good teams loose or involve in a draw nowadays, due to several reasons that we all know.

[BigBurk]

Yeah, I'm learning that the hard way (good teams losing/drawing).. I am far from a pro also, just addicted to betting

Will be going to play more totals, hope it takes me into + for the rest of the season, looking like a numbnut right now

[BigBurk]

08/28/11 Heerenveen (Eredivisie) AH +1 -118* /Feyenoord (Eredivisie) *LOCKED* (2 units)

Write up(s) later!

[BigBurk]

08/27/11 Roda JC (Eredivisie)/Utrecht (Eredivisie) Over 2½,3 -124* *LOCKED* (1 unit)

[BigBurk]

For tonight's EL matches:

Ried (UEFA-Europa)/PSV Eindhoven (UEFA-Europa) Over 2½ -142* *LOCKED* (1 unit)

Aalesund (UEFA-Europa)/AZ Alkmaar (UEFA-Europa) Over 2½,3 -127* *LOCKED* (1 unit)

[BigBurk]

Not a bad draw for Ajax in the CL! Second place could be reachable with Lyon being the biggest contestant for the place behind Real.

[BigBurk]

How on earth hasn't PSV scored yet.. Chance after chance, disallowed goal, ball on the crossbar. Jeez.

[BigBurk]

Well PSV might not get the over 2.5, but 1.5 must be doable, so;

Ried (UEFA-Europa)/PSV Eindhoven (UEFA-Europa) 2H Over 1½ -125* *LOCKED* (2 units)