Originally posted by Wilba
CANT HAVE THAT
-
CANT HAVE THAT
Comment -
Good luck for all this week
Comment -
One English Championship pick. Superb value.
League: English Championship
Pick: Watford WIN @ 3.15
Risk: 6.98
Potential win: 15.00Comment -
lol! didnt think you would like that one, given your avatar!Originally posted by TOTTENHAM2CANT HAVE THATComment -
thanks! bad week last week, Im sure will bounce back tonight.Originally posted by sportscashGood luck for all this week
Comment -
#2 English Championship pick. Superb value.
League: English Championship
Pick: Derby County/Doncaster Rovers OV 2.5 @ 1.787
Risk: 4.32
Potential win: 3.40Comment -
#2 English Championship pick. Superb value.
League: English Championship
Pick: Barnsley +0.5 @ 1.61 (LOTS OF JUICE BUT BRILLIANT VALUE)
Risk: 8.20
Potential win: 5.00Comment -
above should say pick #3Comment -
#2 English Championship pick. Superb value. UPDATED
League: English Championship
Pick: Barnsley +0.5 @ 1.61 (LOTS OF JUICE BUT BRILLIANT VALUE)
Risk: 9.02
Potential win: 5.50Comment -
Well, another disappointing night to add to a hugely disappointing beginning of this thread. I have still not watched a couple of the games, as they are stored on my set top box for later, but the 5 I looked at were 2 PSTP (EFL), 1 push(bolton), 2 loss(barnsley, fulham draw bet).
The standard line bets have not been so bad, but all of the 5 higher odds bets in the thread thus far have lost, and the losing high payout bets are the main contributing factor behind the +/- deficit. I guess all I can say to that is that, with the odds up around and over 3.00, it only takes a couple of wins to gain back a big chunk.
As I stated at the start of this thread, when I started this I had been on a very sucessful ~+45 unit win streak over the prior 3 weeks. However, with the poor results over the last 1.5 weeks, a large % of those 45 units have already been eaten up. (PLEASE NOTE that what most people call 1 unit, I call 4-5 ie ~4 units is my standard base amount. The only reason I do it this way is that it is much easier to split bets into 4.2 units or 5.1 as opposed to 0.796 units, or 1.174, for example.)
ANYWAY, much the same as I earlier said 'after a big win streak, losses always come' - I can also say that after a big losing streak, wins always come. I have been in this game long enough to know that all results turn after a string one way or another. Having said that, anyone who does not believe that this run will turn around, feel absolutely free to fade me! I assure you I will not take any offence whatsoever.
1 EPL pick for tonight. Really looking forward to watching this one!
league: EPL
Pick: Chelsea PK/-0.5
Risk: 4.00 unit
Potential win: 5.60 unit
I am going against current form for this one, as Chelsea over last 4-6 weeks have been nothing short of awful, however I feel the return of Lampard + Drogba to their starting lineup, plus Arsenal's inability to perform on the big stage in recent years, will see Chelsea running out winners in this one.Comment -
ps I will do a weekend summary on thurs after the rest of the weeks early games. The reason I do not do this after every day is that sometimes I do not watch the games until a day or two later.
CheersComment -
Well what a joke my 'picks' have been since this thread started. Loss last night. I am seemingly excellent fade material ATM but I am not giving up.
I'll be back later on today with update and picks for tonight.Comment -
dont worry mate, like u said, losses are followed by wins
Comment -
thanks buddy, I appreciate it.
I'm not concerned as far as my own bank roll goes, as for soccer I am still up on the season (albeit not much now), and also know from past experience that, as you say, win/loss streaks always occur, and they always turn. Even a bad one like this.
What is more concerning to me is that since I only started the thread 2 weeks ago, anyone who has followed this has ONLY seen the loss streak - if you have a good win streak before losses like this, like I did, is not so bad - but in isolation it is HORRID! And this thread only has the isolation of the losses, unfortunately! Also concerns me that people might come in here and see -38 units or something, and think that it is like -38% of roll, so from here I am gonna post the record both in terms of my units, and in terms of if each game had been played to win 1 unit. Playing to win 1 unit for every posted game in this thread has a record of 7 win 13 losses for -3.858 units total. So when you post it like others post (1 unit / play) I guess it is not that bad.. Still up there with the worst streaks I have had though!
The one thing which makes me feel ok is that I really doubt many (if any) people played any of my picks that have been posted anyway. That would be the only thing that would really bother me, if I had lead others to play losing plays.
Thanks a lot for your kind words mate, I really do appreciate it.
I will be back in 4-6 hours with the picks for tonights games!Comment -
RECORD BEFORE LAST 2 DAYS GAMES:
SEASON TO DATE:
'UNOFFICIAL BET' RECORD: 3-1, +5.44 UNITS
OFFICIAL:
YTD: +35.27 +3.00 = +38.27 units
Thread to date 6 WIN 9 LOSS: -21.97 +3.00 = -18.97 units
RECORD FOR LAST 2 DAYS:
+3.0 (CCM)
-0.3 (+2.7-3.0 = -0.3 from bolton game)
+4.5 (man city)
-6.02 (fulham/west ham draw)
-3.74 (aston villa)
-9.02 (barnsley)
-4.00 (chelsea)
2 DAY TOTAL = -15.58 UNITS
updated record:
SEASON TO DATE:
'UNOFFICIAL BET' RECORD: 3-1, +5.44 UNITS
OFFICIAL:
YTD: +35.27 +3.00 = +38.27 - 15.58 = +22.69 units
Thread to date 7 WIN 13 LOSS: -21.97 +3.00 = -18.97 - 15.58 = -34.55 units
and I will also post the records in terms of if you had to win 1 unit per play:
AT PLAY TO WIN 1 UNIT:
'UNOFFICIAL BET' RECORD: 3-1, +2.56 UNITS
OFFICIAL:
YTD: +5.87 UNITS
thread to date: 7 win 13 loss -3.86 units
I will definitely have a few plays for tonight. Working on that now and will post as they become readyComment -
1st EPL pick tonight
league: EPL
Pick: Manchester City -1
Risk: 4.72 unit
Potential win: 4.00 unitComment -
Odds for man city above were 1.847. forgot to add that. Obviously this is very easy to work out if you just divide the potential win by the risk, but anyway..
2nd EPL pick tonight here. Fair bit of juice for the PK/-0.5 rather than just the -0.5 (@1.901), but is worth the extra juice as there is a reasonable chance of a draw, but also a very good chance of stoke win. Stoke City will NOT lose this game, so as far as I am concerned the worst case is a half push/half loss with the PK/-0.5, which is why I deem it worthwhile to pay the extra juice and risk a very high unit amount.
league: EPL
Pick: Stoke City PK/-0.5 @ 1.641
Risk: 9.98 unit
Potential win: 6.40 unitComment -
Plenty of picks tonight. Here is EPL #3:
league: EPL
Pick: Sunderland/Blackpool UND 2.5 @ 2.23
Risk: 3.50 unit
Potential win: 4.30 unitComment -
pick EPL #4:
league: EPL
Pick: Tottenham/Newcastle OV 2.5 @ 1.741
Risk: 4.05 unit
Potential win: 3.00 unitComment -
Originally posted by Wilba
your taking a chance with this game could easy be 4 goals hereComment -
pick EPL #5: high juice necessary due to large number of everton away draws
league: EPL
Pick: Everton PK @ 1.568
Risk: 5.72 unit
Potential win: 3.25 unitComment -
Sure. But Sunderland very strong defensively at home, not conceded in 6/ last 8 games, against better oposition than Bpool. and 1 of the 2 games they did concede (v Arsenal) was a frek Cesc Fabregas goal deflected from close to half way. Bpool scored 4 goals away in last 5 games, but they all came in the two games against the 2 teams with the worst home defence in the league, outside of the bottom 3 teams. Sunderland has not scored more than 2 goals in a home game since last April.Originally posted by TOTTENHAM2
I feel at the very decent odds of 1.23 this is worth a small - medium size bet. At worst a 50% chance under IMOComment -
ps I believe that if it does go over 1 or 2, then it has potential to blow out to 4-5 goals like you say. Which is why I took 2.23 on und 2.5 rather than 1.76 on und 3. Not much point in the insurance of the 3rd goal from my prediction. I think most likely 1-0, 2-0. If goals go over that then 2-2, 3-2 not out of the questionComment -
Originally posted by Wilba
thinking sunderland will score 3 at least, steve bruce rested players against utd targeting this game, this time of year the newcomers start to get found outComment -
pick EPL #6: this is easily the best value pick of the night. Paying 4.29 and I rate it at better than even chance of occurring. Bham drawn 3/ last 6 EPL at home vs man Utd, Bham drawn 4/8 at home this season. Man Utd drawn 6/7 away from home this season. Most importantly, Bham drawn 9/ last 11 at home vs the top 7 EPL teams (including last game v Man Utd) over the last year. How this is paying 4.29 is beyond me.
league: EPL
Pick: Draw(Birmingham City vs Manchester United)*@ 4.29
Risk: 6.84 unit
Potential win: 22.5 unitComment -
in that case you should back sunderland OV team total - paying 1.84 for OV 1.5/2 - if you are confident on sund scoring 3 this is a great bet for youOriginally posted by TOTTENHAM2Comment -
He dident rest any players, Cattermole was suspended, Welbeck was not allowed to play since he is on loan from Man U, Richardson was sick, and Bramble, Turner, Mensah, Carson and Campbell was injured and not even on the bench. Sure, Bruce could have stated that one or two players was "injured or sick" so they could rest but I dont believe that.Originally posted by TOTTENHAM2Comment -
have gone for small bet on ov 3.5 @ 6.5 quite possible against blackpoolOriginally posted by WilbaComment -
Hey Mr Kitty, good to see you back in here. I have been going awfully last couple days though! Today is a new day!
I agree with your comment on the Sunderland/Man U game - I do not believe that Bruce would intentionally throw a game by resting fit players, even at Old Trafford!
Tottenham - good luck with your sunderland team goals OV 3.5. First I will barrack for total goals und 2.5, but if that bet is lost, I will barrack for Sund to go 4+Comment -
English Championship pick #1
league: EFL
Pick: Bristol City PK/-0.5 @ 1.962
Risk: 7.02 unit
Potential win: 6.75 unitComment -
English Championship pick #2. not so confident on this one, but very good value at over 4-1 odds. Portsmouth have won last 2 games away from home vs good opposition, are well rested, and Leeds have lost 4/11 games at home. Ports good recent record vs Leeds also.
league: EFL
Pick: Portsmouth WIN @ 4.09
Risk: 2.00 unit
Potential win: 6.18 unitComment -
no more for tonight. At least one game already circled for tomorrow. (arsenal -1 @ wigan) however waiting for squad updates before making it official.
Also for reasons already explained, I may not update results for a day or two after the matches tonight. The latest I would update results would be friday - sat. I am on holidays at the moment so I have plenty of opportunity to watch these games! recording 4 on the set top box tonight. Looking forward to a turn in fortunes back to winning ways.Comment -
where do u get ur line up updates ?Comment -
ALSO IT IS BECOMING COMMON FOR TEAMS TO REST "INJURED" PLAYERS AT OLD TRAFFORDOriginally posted by wilba
just a small stake high risk bet which i think is possible
gl to your under otherwiseComment -
I am contemplating a bet on this, but what worries me is Bristols depleted defence as McAllister, Fontaine and Carey are all missing. Hmmmmm....Originally posted by WilbaComment
