Wilbas soccer picks!

[Wilba]

And here is the final German Bundesliga pick for tonight. Lots of great value in the bundesliga tonight, all 3 of the picks have odds easily over 2.0 (+100) and I consider all 3 to be a good chance of winning easily.

For the game below, Hannover is missing their best player Didier Ya Kanon. He got both their goals last week and has been great all season. If he was not out I would happily risk 6-7 units on this game (to win ~15) , but at odds of 3.46, even without Ya Kanon I think this is great value.

League: Germany
Pick: Hannover 96 to WIN *** @3.46
Risk: 3.76 units
Potential win: 9.25 units

I should mention that this weekend I am not going to play my picks as aggressively as I usually do, because I have had 3 very good weeks in a row. Past experience tells me that after 3-4 good weeks in a row, a down week is due sometime very soon. Please keep this in mind if there is anyone who is doing any of these plays.

Having said that, I believe all the plays I post to be excellent value, else I would not post them! Plus I have had success over a long period with soccer, and so I always have high confidence in my selections.

I just realised that I have not been explicitly posting the odds, but I assume that people work out anyway, as this is easy when you have the risk and potential win amount. For completeness, I will now post the odds with the picks.

I will have Spanish La Liga picks in a few hours, plus also maybe a pick for the AC Milan/Roma Serie A clash, which kicks off in about 8 hours from now.

[Wilba]

Can you give me an example as to how its done.....

Hi JW! Great to have you in here!

to answer your question, no, the ML is different from the PK. In soccer, the PK (or 'pick em') is basically a bet for which, if the game is a draw, all PK/pick em bets are refunded. So you pick a side, and it becomes a 'draw no bet' ticket. If there is a winner in the game, say team A wins; team A's PK tickets are winners, team B's PK tickets are losers. If there is a draw, both team A and team B's PK tickets are simply refunded.

In the ML, you are picking that team to actually WIN the game. A ML ticket is a loser if the team you picked loses, OR draws. They must actually win for ML.

As to 'creating' your own PK ticket, you would do this simply by backing sunderland to win at the ML, then putting just enough on the draw option such that if the game is a draw, your loss from the sunderland ML ticket is cancelled out by the win from the draw ticket. Make sense? However doing it this way, you will likely get odds which are not as good as doing a 'proper' PK bet. Same outcome though in that you win if the team wins, and get money back if the team draws.

So if you are offered +105 for the ML (pinnacle is currently +112, cant beat pinnacle for soccer) then you should be offered about +233 for the draw. So to create a PK (a an example), you would do:

ML: risk 2 unit to win 2.1
draw: risk 0.86 unit to win 2

so then if ML wins, you win 2.1-0.86=+1.24 unit. Draw you get money back. So effectively doing it this way, you are risking 2.86 unit to win 1.24. So this is effectively -230. As you can see, creating your own PK this way is not very cost effective.

Although even at these terrible odds, I would still rate sunderland PK as being worthwhile. My cutoff for no value would be around -250.

[Wilba]

Sunderland just dropped again to -202 for PK (at pinnacle). Glad I posted earlier the pick earlier when I did! I could see it getting crunched. Would not surprise me if it closed at -220 when game kicks off in 20 mins

[JW Cash]

Thanks for ther explanation Will........

Greek doesnt have the PK option......I would be better off to bet Sunderland
to WIN with ML or bet the draw.......

I do miss Pinny.....and Neteller....those were the good old days......

[Wilba]

Liverpool vs Fulham has just been postponed. All tickets will be refunded

[Wilba]

ya I feel for you not being able to use Pinnacle in the US, I was shocked when they stopped servicing US customers. And what to do is a tough one, if you are really set on playing the sunderland game and cant get PK, I would almost have to say that the draw is slightly better value than the sund ML. Sund ML certainly not a bad bet though.

Not sure if you were keen on the Sunderland game in particular, or just any soccer game. But if you were gonna pick just one, the bundesliga games are all strong, especially Shalke and Borussia Dortmund -1/1.5 both at very nice odds.

[latinrus]

I think Nurnberg may take this game Hanover struggles a lot to score sometimes!

In any case BOL

I also took Borussia and Schalke!

[Wilba]

I think Nurnberg may take this game Hanover struggles a lot to score sometimes!

In any case BOL

I also took Borussia and Schalke!

nice one

but Im not sure why you say hannover struggle to score sometimes, they have scores 11 goals in last 5 games? and Nurnberg conceded 12! I am confident that hannover will at least score 1-2 goals, although how much missing their star striker will effect them is yet to be seen! I would not be shocked to see Nurnberg win, but I still think at the offered price, hannover was great value!

Anyway, BOL tonight, hoping Borussia Dortmund and Schalke can both come off

[JW Cash]

Will

Did you make a few units in the World Cup ???

[Wilba]

I am a bit late posting this one - the game kicks off in just over 90 minutes, but here is another game with great value:

League: English Championship
Pick: Swansea City to WIN @ 2.53
Risk: 5.39 units
Potential win: 8.25 units

[Wilba]

I must say, yes, I did wonderfully well in the world cup, netting 46.72 units on the games, but losing 11 units on long term prop bets. As well as game to game bets, I did 2 long term world cup props-backing both the Dutch and Germany to win the cup, both at very nice odds. At the semi finals, it was looking very promising, with both teams still alive. but unfortunately for me, the Spanish knocked both my teams out (the bastards!)

Many people say that there is not good money to be made in international soccer cups but, needless to say, I strongly disagree

[Wilba]

No picks for Italian Serie A. However, I have just found what is without a doubt the pick of the night so far. The match is as follows. Unbelievable value IMO:

League: Dutch Eredivise
Pick: NAC Breda -1 @ 2.93
Risk: 7.77 units
Potential win: 15.00 units

[Wilba]

I am going now to watch some of the Sunderland game. Back in 2 hours from now with Spanish picks, there will be at least 1.

[Wilba]

Well so far the night is up and down so far. The sunderland game panned out exactly as expected, with a close hard fought 1-0 win to sunderland for +4.25 unit. But that profit was lost in the Hannover lost convincingly, for -3.76 unit. Borussia Dortmund played very poorly for a loss, costing -5.45 unit, but schalke had a strong 3-0 win for +6.5 unit. Liverpool was cancelled due to weather.

TOTAL THUS FAR = +1.54 UNIT

Also Swansea is currently down 1-0. If the game stays that way it will cost -5.39 unit for a total of -3.85 on the night so far.

Still a great bet in NAC Breda coming up, and also 1-2 spanish la liga bets which are following shortly. Will be back in 20 min with that

[Wilba]

1st spanish bet

League: La Liga
Pick: Villarreal -0.5/1 @ 1.962
Risk: 3.64 units
Potential win: 3.5 units

[JW Cash]

Dont know alot about soccer betting....

I took NAC Breda ML ...Greek had it at EVEN..... +100

Was that a good bet Will...?

[Mr.Kitty]

Breda are missing some regular players tonight, most importantly Amoah (18 games, 9 goals). The odds have been constantly going up on the ML, it looks like a clear HW but I would be a bit careful this time. GL.

[Wilba]

2nd spanish bet

League: La Liga
Pick: Deportive La Coruna PK @ 1.667
Risk: 3.90 units
Potential win: 2.60 units

[JW Cash]

Was watching the Dortmund game .....they miss a great opportunity to score and
then Frankfurt comes down the pitch and scores with 4 min left...

Looked awful cold in Frankfurt....and the announcers for the Sunderland game
was giving all the matches that were cancelled cause of weather .....

So that brings up an interesting question .......

What does it take for a soccer game to be called off....

I seen games played in a driving rainstorm...but dont they
play in snow and sleet and extreme cold ???

Here in Minneapolis coming up on Monday night....we
got a pro football game between Vikings/Bears that will
be played in 10 degree weather and the field will probably be
like ice......

The game was supposed to be played in our dome stadium...but as
you know...that collasped last week due to heavy snow......

[Wilba]

Breda are missing some regular players tonight, most importantly Amoah (18 games, 9 goals). The odds have been constantly going up on the ML, it looks like a clear HW but I would be a bit careful this time. GL.

yeah sure, Amoah has scored 1/4 of all NAC's goals at home and is important to them, I still think -1 at 2.93 is outstanding value though. They have been playing brilliantly and lots of goals coming from other players too. Time will tell iff it was a good bet I guess! Thanks for the word of warning though.

Hi JW - in answer to your question, yes I still think NAC ML at +100 is a good bet. I thought even better was NAC -1 for 2.93, as I think that if they do win, likely that they win by 2+. If I could only get +100 on the ML, I would definitely take that too though.

[Wilba]

3rd spanish bet(s)

League: La Liga
Pick #1: Espanyol +1.5 @ 2.22
Risk: 4.30 units
Potential win: 5.25 units
Pick #1: Espanyol/Barcelona DRAW @ 5.96
Risk: 0.20 units
Potential win: 1.00 units

[Wilba]

the 2nd "pick #1" above should obviously say "pick #2". It is a small second bet on the draw, in the same game as the main bet of Espanyol +1.5. My mistake.

[latinrus]

Borussia damn it!

Schalke win easily to a poor Koln.

I told u about Nurnberg, Hanover struggle a lot! especially on the road.

[Wilba]

The game was supposed to be played in our dome stadium...but as
you know...that collasped last week due to heavy snow......

Ha! That was unbelievable, with the stadium I mean!

I believe the official line for when a soccer match is postponed due to weather conditions is for 'crowd safety' - they say it is too dangerous for crowd members on the icy pavements and so forth around the ground.

In this day and age of everyone suing everyone else for compo, I guess you can't really blame em huh?

[Wilba]

Borussia damn it!

Schalke win easily to a poor Koln.

I told u about Nurnberg, Hanover struggle a lot! especially on the road.

Are you basing that comment on the Hannover of this season, or last season? Last season they struggled a lot, but a team that struggles a lot would not be 3rd in the Bundesliga at the halfway point of the season, as Hannover is... as for road form, before the match today, Hannover had won 4/7 on the road (4th best road record in the league - definitely not strugglers on the road!), including winning their last two. Nurnburg had lost 3/7 at home, including losing the last two. I would make that bet again for those odds in a heartbeat!

ya Dortmund were very poor, weren't they? Obviously still recovering from the midweek trip to Spain, and getting knocked out of the Europa league. Well they have earnt a week off I guess, they have been brilliant all year.

[JW Cash]

Looks like its snowing in the St Pauli/Mainz game.....

Now this is more like it..........definately snow on the pitch....

[nobull]

this reminds me of the MLS finals.................wish they had held it in the U.S.

[latinrus]

Are you basing that comment on the Hannover of this season, or last season? Last season they struggled a lot, but a team that struggles a lot would not be 3rd in the Bundesliga at the halfway point of the season, as Hannover is... as for road form, before the match today, Hannover had won 4/7 on the road (4th best road record in the league - definitely not strugglers on the road!), including winning their last two. Nurnburg had lost 3/7 at home, including losing the last two. I would make that bet again for those odds in a heartbeat!

ya Dortmund were very poor, weren't they? Obviously still recovering from the midweek trip to Spain, and getting knocked out of the Europa league. Well they have earnt a week off I guess, they have been brilliant all year.

hey buddy hope u didn't get my wrong!

I was just commenting!

I said Hanover struggle baiscally cause I've been betting on that team in last games. Didier Ya Kanon is a very important piece for them and they struggle without him!
About the road I watched the Borussia Mgladbach - hanover and they were lucky cause Borussia was with 10 and they were even losing!

In any case I bet on Borussia dortmund and Schalke! Now that I see I think my mistake was take Borussia cause they were already relaxing and u cannot have sucha a good run of a lot of games winning! Some teams after the Midweek games struggle in their own league!

In any case onto the next games Hope we'll both have winners

[Wilba]

Well a very poor start to the weekend going 3-5. I hinted to the fact that after a very good streak, a bad day always occurs somewhere soon enough, and hence with last nights picks I was a little conservative with the unit size played. Hopefully now that is out of the way I can get back to winning ways tonight!

Final record from Sat 18th Dec:
Pick: Sunderland PK: WIN +4.25 unit
Pick: Schalke 04 -1/1.5: WIN +6.5 unit
Pick: Borussia Dortmund -1/1.5 : LOSS -5.45 unit
Pick: Hannover 96 to WIN: LOSS -3.76 unit
Pick: Swansea City to WIN @ 2.53: LOSS -5.39 unit
Pick: NAC Breda -1 @ 2.93: LOSS -7.77 unit
Pick: Villarreal -0.5/1: WIN +3.5 unit
Pick: Deportive La Coruna PK: PUSH +0.0 unit
Pick #1: Espanyol +1.5 and draw: LOSS -4.3 LOSS -0.2 unit = -4.5 unit

NIGHT TOTAL = 3 win, 5 losses = -12.62 units

*note on the NAC Breda game - this one hurt! good call Mr Kitty on saying to be careful - I underestimated the effect that missing Amoah would have on the team. Well done Mr Kitty. Also a mention to Latinrus for the comment on the Hannover game, which turned out to be spot on. I would still place the bets again though! I knew there was a decent chance of Hannover losing, but also a decent chance of win, and the value was too good to turn down. Similarly story with NAC.

'UNOFFICIAL BET' RECORD: 3-1, +5.44 UNITS

OFFICIAL:
YTD: +53.24 -12.62 units = +40.62 units
Thread to date: -4.0 units - 12.62 units = -16.62

well that's almost all of last weekends winnings down the drain already (booo!). I am hoping that if anyone played these games, that they managed to play the winners and not the losers! (JW I know you were on the losing NAC, I hope you at least got the winning sunderland also!)
So I am quietly confident to make a chunk of it back tonight. As of yet I have only had a glance at a few games, but definitely some good value to be had. I will be back by 6 hours from now at latest with my picks for tonight.

[Wilba]

hey buddy hope u didn't get my wrong!

I was just commenting!

I said Hanover struggle baiscally cause I've been betting on that team in last games. Didier Ya Kanon is a very important piece for them and they struggle without him!

sure - no worries at all, and no I didnt at all get you wrong! Very happy to have you in the thread - I always have open ears to feedback/input comments and am always up for discussions. I was just clarifying what you meant by your comment because I misunderstood.

I will be sure to be wary if Ya Kanon is missing again - I was burnt twice last night (also with NAC) by underestimating the effect of an absent star striker.

Well, you win some, you lose some. For me the only important thing is the bank balance at the end of the season!

Looking forward to some nice games tonight

[latinrus]

sure - no worries at all, and no I didnt at all get you wrong! Very happy to have you in the thread - I always have open ears to feedback/input comments and am always up for discussions. I was just clarifying what you meant by your comment because I misunderstood.

I will be sure to be wary if Ya Kanon is missing again - I was burnt twice last night (also with NAC) by underestimating the effect of an absent star striker.

Well, you win some, you lose some. For me the only important thing is the bank balance at the end of the season!

Looking forward to some nice games tonight

I'm still kicking myself cause of Dortmund!

I think we both and some other cappers thought they were unbeatable! And never take in count the midweek game that in fact was tough (fisically) especially for Borussia that was the one that make all the work cause Sevilla didn't show anything.

About Hanover I think sometimes they're lazy! They like to keep 1 goal lead in some cases or even go down by one goal to strt reacting IMO!

[Wiesnak]

after reading larsgermany previews for bundesliga u could see borusia not winning this game, but not to score 1 goal wasnt cool at all

[Mr.Kitty]

Thanks for the kind words Wilba, good luck today

[Wilba]

cheers mr Kitty.

A couple of early ones starting in a little over 1 hour:

League: Italy serie A
Pick: Lazio to WIN @ 2.0
Risk: 3.00 units
Potential win: 3.00 units

League: Dutch Eredivise
Pick: Ajax/Feyenoord*UND 3.5 442/333 @ 1.752
Risk: 3.85 units
Potential win: 2.9 units

neither of these spectacular, but both very much worth playing I think.

A couple of the games I circled have been postponed, but I will definitely have more on tonight. I will have the other games posted within 3.5 hours from now, before the other euro games kick off.

Usually I get games posted earlier, but this weekend has just been very hectic.

[Mr.Kitty]

Ajax - Feyenoord is postponed: http://english.ajax.nl/News/Archive/...d-canceled.htm