Wilbas soccer picks!

Stevier100 · 12-19-10, 06:33 AM

Originally posted by Wilba

cheers mr Kitty.

A couple of early ones starting in a little over 1 hour:

League: Italy serie A
Pick: Lazio to WIN @ 2.0
Risk: 3.00 units
Potential win: 3.00 units

League: Dutch Eredivise
Pick: Ajax/Feyenoord*UND 3.5 442/333 @ 1.752
Risk: 3.85 units
Potential win: 2.9 units

neither of these spectacular, but both very much worth playing I think.

A couple of the games I circled have been postponed, but I will definitely have more on tonight. I will have the other games posted within 3.5 hours from now, before the other euro games kick off.

Usually I get games posted earlier, but this weekend has just been very hectic.

Hi Wilba

This is a great thread and i've added to my thread watch with interest!!

Good Luck My Friend
Steve

Wilba · 12-19-10, 08:33 AM

Hi Steve, well thanks a lot and it is great to see you here!

Not a good start last night for me, but hoping to turn things around tonight. As Mr kitty points out, the ajax match was suspended (tickets refunded), and Lazio just pulled through for a 3-2 result to make one win to start the night. Hoping here is another one:

League: Italy serie A
Pick: Palermo to WIN @ 2.47
Risk: 3.81 units
Potential win: 5.60 units

Wilba · 12-19-10, 08:34 AM

League: Italy serie A
Pick: Lazio to WIN @ 2.0
Risk: 3.00 units
Potential win: 3.00 units

RESULT: WIN +3.00 units

League: Dutch Eredivise
Pick: Ajax/Feyenoord*UND 3.5 442/333 @ 1.752
Risk: 3.85 units
Potential win: 2.9 units

RESULT: match postponed

Wilba · 12-19-10, 09:12 AM

One German Bundesliga pick for tonight

League: Bundesliga
Pick: Stuttgart +0.5 @ 2.15
Risk: 3.91 units
Potential win: 4.5 units

Wilba · 12-19-10, 09:54 AM

a goal just before half time for Palermo, and they are now leadinn 1-0. Also, the team they are playing, Bari, has had 1 man sent off. Still early but the Palermo bet is looking nice

Wilba · 12-19-10, 10:43 AM

and one other play tonight. I am splitting this play on Real Madrid into two halfs because I could not decide between the over and the win..

League: La Liga
Pick: Real Madird OV 2.5 (real madrid goals only) 1.758
Risk: 2.24 units
Potential win: 1.7
Pick: Real Madird -1.5/2 @ 1.794
Risk: 2.14 units
Potential win: 1.7

also just to let you know, apart from maybe posting a play for man city match tomorrow, after sunday night (which is right now in my local time) I usually wont come back to thread until wed/thurs, just because I record some of these games on my set top box to watch later, so sometimes I dont know the game result until later in the week. Would ruin the fun if I knew the result!

latinrus · 12-19-10, 11:10 AM

Originally posted by Wilba

and one other play tonight. I am splitting this play on Real Madrid into two halfs because I could not decide between the over and the win..

League: La Liga
Pick: Real Madird OV 2.5 (real madrid goals only) 1.758
Risk: 2.24 units
Potential win: 1.7
Pick: Real Madird -1.5/2 @ 1.794
Risk: 2.14 units
Potential win: 1.7

also just to let you know, apart from maybe posting a play for man city match tomorrow, after sunday night (which is right now in my local time) I usually wont come back to thread until wed/thurs, just because I record some of these games on my set top box to watch later, so sometimes I dont know the game result until later in the week. Would ruin the fun if I knew the result!

BOL today!

Hope my team can get the job done today!

Wilba · 12-20-10, 12:55 AM

One game on tonight with a pick:

League: EPL
pick: Everton +0.5/1 @ 1.990
risk: 3.79 unit
potential win: 3.75 units

Wilba · 12-22-10, 09:19 PM

back with an update from last weekend. All in all, an awful weekend really. I should have taken my own advice and played with caution given the great run for 3 weeks leading up to last weekend. Also, I broke one of my golden rules, which is never to play games in the last game before the mid season break (Similarly, play with caution on the first game back after winter break)

A lot of the big euro leagues shut down over xmas, but the english leagues keep going. EPL is traditionally my strongest league, so hopefully have some good picks to make back some money this weekend.

SUMMARY OF SUNDAY NIGHT AND THREAD/SEASON TO DATE:

SUNDAY NIGHT:
Pick: Lazio to WIN @ 2.0 risk 3.0 to win 3.0
RESULT: WIN +3.0 units

Pick: Ajax/Feyenoord*UND 3.5 442/333 @ 1.752
RESULT: game postponed, no profit/loss

Pick: Palermo to WIN @ 2.47
result: LOSS -3.81 units

Pick: Stuttgart +0.5 @ 2.15
RESULT: LOSS -3.91 units

Pick: Real Madird OV 2.5 AND Pick: Real Madird -1.5/2
RESULT: LOSS -2.14 AND -2.24 = -4.38 units

pick: Everton +0.5/1 @ 1.990
RESULT: WIN 3.75 units

SUNDAY NIGHT RESULTS: 2-3, -5.35 units

SEASON TO DATE:
'UNOFFICIAL BET' RECORD: 3-1, +5.44 UNITS

OFFICIAL:
YTD: +40.62 - 5.35 units = +35.27 units
Thread to date 5 WIN 9 LOSS: -16.61 - 5.35 units = -21.97 units (YUCK! THERE GOES THE LAST 2 WEEKS PROFIT IN 1 WEEKEND...)

Wilba · 12-22-10, 09:20 PM

Wilba · 12-22-10, 09:37 PM

I will just add a quick note to say that, by season's end, my target is be at +150 units. I would be hugely disappointed with anything less than a season end of +100 units. These projections are based on my two years soccer capping since tracking my picks, the 2 years have been (2008/2009) +136 units and (2009/2010) +104 units.

I would like to think that I, like a fine wine, get better with age!

Here's to getting back to winning ways on the 26th!

Wilba · 12-25-10, 03:26 AM

Posting early one EPL game for tomorrow. This is OUTSTANDING value. My equations (incredibly) rate this game at a 70.4% chance of a draw. Thats is close to the highest I have ever seen for a game paying odds for a draw of 3.49 (+249 US odds). Hoping the 29.6% chance of no draw does not win out! head2head records the only downside of this pick. Not many draws between fulham/west ham in this fixture in recent years. However this seasons form points, overwhelmingly, in all areas, to this game ending a draw.

EPL picks so far 2/2 for +7.25 units. As I previously mention, EPL my strongest league.

League: EPL
Pick: Draw(Fulham vs West Ham United)*
Risk: 6.02
Potential win: 15.00

ps. chance of english games being postponed this weekend due to weather conditions. Really hoping that most of them, esp this one, are played as scheduled.

Wilba · 12-25-10, 03:30 AM

mistake in the posted wager amount. Above should be:

League: EPL
Pick: Draw(Fulham vs West Ham United)*
Risk: 6.83
Potential win: 17.00

Wilba · 12-25-10, 06:09 PM

Australian A league pick for today

League: A league
Pick: Central Coast Mariners WIN @ 1.98
Risk: 3.06
Potential win: 3.00

Wilba · 12-26-10, 03:04 AM

The Central Coast Mariners game just finished with an easy 2-0 win to the Mariners:

Pick: Central Coast Mariners WIN @ 1.98
Result: WIN +3.00 units

SEASON TO DATE:
'UNOFFICIAL BET' RECORD: 3-1, +5.44 UNITS

OFFICIAL:
YTD: +35.27 +3.00 = +38.27 units
Thread to date 6 WIN 9 LOSS: -21.97 +3.00 = -18.97 units

at least 2 more strong EPL picks following for tonight. Be back in 1-2 hours after further research.

Wilba · 12-26-10, 03:34 AM

Next EPL pick here. Very strong. Note that this bet is split into two parts - blackpool OV team total, and Blackpool at the spread, both to win 3 units:

League: EPL
Pick #1: Blackpool +1 @ 1.725
Risk: 4.14
Potential win: 3.00
Pick #1: Blackpool team goals OV 0.5/1 @ 1.752
Risk: 3.99
Potential win: 3.00

NYSportsGuy210 · 12-26-10, 04:05 AM

Is Liverpool ML (-143) a safe play to make for tomorrow?

valiko · 12-26-10, 04:37 AM

will try!!

Wilba · 12-26-10, 04:48 AM

Originally posted by NYSportsGuy210

Is Liverpool ML (-143) a safe play to make for tomorrow?

in my opinion - definitely NOT

Wiesnak · 12-26-10, 04:49 AM

i dont think blackpool will do the doluble over liverpool this year

Wilba · 12-26-10, 04:59 AM

3rd EPL pick of the night here. At least 1 more to follow, more likely 2 to follow.
Again this bet is split into two parts - Bolton Wanderers/West Brom OV 2.5, and Bolton team total OV 1.5, both to win 2.7 units:

League: EPL
Pick #1: Bolton Wanderers/West Brom OV 2.5 @ 1.901
Risk: 3.00
Potential win: 2.70
Pick #1: Bolton Wanderers team goals OV 1.5 @ 2.02
Risk: 2.65
Potential win: 2.7

Wilba · 12-26-10, 05:02 AM

Originally posted by Wiesnak

i dont think blackpool will do the doluble over liverpool this year

I do not necessarily think that Blackpool will win against Liverpool. But I do think strongly that they will score at least once, and that if they do lose, that it will not be by more than 1 goal. Even with a Blackpool loss by 1 goal, the bet blackpool +1 is not a loss, it is a push. Hence a 1-2 Blackpool loss nets a profit with the bets I have selected. A 1-1 or 2-2 draw would not surprise me at all. However a Liverpool win by a blowout margin to nil (ie 3-0, 4-0 etc) would VERY much surprise me.

However you should go with your own feelings. If you really like Liverpool to win straight up, you should back it!

Wiesnak · 12-26-10, 05:07 AM

i actually like both teams to score, draw or liverpool win by 1 as u say is most probably outcome
i had blackpool +1 at bolton, ended 2-2 and i had blackpool +1 at stoke, ended 1-0 for blackpool
doesnt feel the same this time though

Wiesnak · 12-26-10, 05:08 AM

looks like the game got postponed

Wilba · 12-26-10, 05:11 AM

THE BLACKPOOL/LIVERPOOL GAME HAS JUST BEEN POSTPONED. ANY/ALL WAGERS ON THIS GAME WILL BE REFUNDED.

very disappointed about this actually..

Wilba · 12-26-10, 05:12 AM

Originally posted by Wiesnak

i actually like both teams to score, draw or liverpool win by 1 as u say is most probably outcome

this was exactly my thinking which is why I thought both the Bpool to score and not to lose by 2+ were very strong. Very disappointed this is postponed as it was a top bet IMO

TOTTENHAM2 · 12-26-10, 05:13 AM

Originally posted by wiesnak

looks like the game got postponed

blackpool v liverpool
everton v birmingham games off

Wilba · 12-26-10, 05:49 AM

the new 3rd EPL pick of the night here (given that Blackpool/Liverpool PSTP).

League: EPL
Pick: Manchester City PK/-0.5 @ 2.04
Risk: 4.33
Potential win: 4.50

Wiesnak · 12-26-10, 05:54 AM

man city got postponed

Wiesnak · 12-26-10, 05:58 AM

nevermind

Wilba · 12-26-10, 06:02 AM

Originally posted by Wiesnak

man city got postponed

Why would you have thought that?? Do you have info that any other games (other than the two already discussed) have been PSTP?

TOTTENHAM2 · 12-26-10, 06:06 AM

Originally posted by wiesnak

man city got postponed

all lists showing game on in cluding club website

TOTTENHAM2 · 12-26-10, 06:09 AM

Originally posted by Wilba

3rd EPL pick of the night here. At least 1 more to follow, more likely 2 to follow.
Again this bet is split into two parts - Bolton Wanderers/West Brom OV 2.5, and Bolton team total OV 1.5, both to win 2.7 units:

League: EPL
Pick #1: Bolton Wanderers/West Brom OV 2.5 @ 1.901
Risk: 3.00
Potential win: 2.70
Pick #1: Bolton Wanderers team goals OV 1.5 @ 2.02
Risk: 2.65
Potential win: 2.7

BOLTON OV 1.5 LOOKS SOLID

Wilba · 12-26-10, 06:12 AM

4th EPL pick of the night here

League: EPL
Pick: Aston Villa PK/+0.5 @ 1.935
Risk: 3.74
Potential win: 3.50

Wilba · 12-26-10, 06:14 AM

Originally posted by TOTTENHAM2

BOLTON OV 1.5 LOOKS SOLID

Absolutely - they have an incredible scoring record at home this season + west brom defence far from top line. I split 1/2 1/2 with total goals OV 2.5 due to boltons poor defensive record - conceding many goals as well as scoring a heap. I was surprised the game total was not set at 3 instead of 2.5