Wilbas soccer picks!

[Wilba]

Welcome everyone to my soccer picks thread. I have done very well, for a number of years now, on soccer handicapping. So I decided to start a thread to share my picks with those who might be interested.

[Wilba]

The first pick of my new thread is in the Australian A league. I am a little late posting this, as the game kicks off shortly, but being the first post I doubt many will see it before the game anyway:

League: Australian A league
Pick: Adelaide United -1.5
Risk: 4 units
Potential win: 4.36 units

[phenomenon]

goodluck,and wellcome to u too

[Wilba]

A few notes about the thread:

1) Usually I will post my plays much further in advance of kick off than in the A league game above.
2) At times there may be a few days where I am not able to get to this thread, but I will update it each time I am able to with win/loss and units won/lost record
3) For me personally, 1 unit represents a little over 0.5% of my bankroll. Most of my plays will range from 2-6 units, which for me is around 1-4% of my bankroll. Around 6-7.5 units will be the biggest plays I will ever have, and these (obviously) represent the strongest picks. 4 units is a strong play, and 2 units a 'standard' strength play. The strongest plays will be marked with the *** you see on a few of the bets below.
4) All plays will be posted with the odds offered at Pinnacle, at the time I placed my bet.
I will post all plays in decimal odds, if anyone does not understand the conversion from decimal to US odds, just let me know and I will explain.

To give you an idea of the plays that I will have on an average weekend, these were my results from last weekend. I sometimes bet on overs/unders, but usually just ML's and point spreads. As can be seen I bet on a wide range of odds, from 5.0 underdogs (+400 US odds), to 1.62 favorites (-170 in US odds). Wherever the value is!

German Bundesliga, Hannover 96* to WIN, RISK 4 to WIN 6.62. RESULT: WIN +6.62 units
Dutch Eredivise, NAC Breda to WIN***, RISK 4.57 to win 10.0. RESULT: WIN +10.0 units
Dutch Eredivise, PSV Eindhoven*-1.5, RISK 3.40 to win 3.75. RESULT: LOSS -3.4 units
English Premier League: Liverpool*-0.5/1, RISK 2.89 to WIN 5.0. RESULT: LOSS -2.89 units
English Championship: Bristol City*PK/-0.5 RISK 3.15 to WIN 3.50. RESULT: WIN +3.50
English Championship: Cardiff City*WIN RISK 3.00 to WIN 5.37. RESULT: LOSS -3.00
German Bundesliga: Bayern München*** -1.5/2, RISK 5.04 to WIN 4.75. RESULT: WIN +4.75
German Bundesliga: Borussia Dortmund****-1.5, RISK 6.58 to WIN 11.0. RESULT: WIN +11.0
Scottish Premier League: Heart -1.5, RISK 2.75 to WIN 5.5. RESULT: WIN +5.5
A league: Draw(Sydney FC vs Brisbane Roar)*RISK 3.69 to WIN 10.0: RESULT: LOSS -3.69
Dutch Eredivise, Ajax -1.5, RISK 4.95 to WIN 5.00 RESULT: LOSS -4.95
Dutch Eredivise, FC Twente Enschede PK. RISK 4.00 to WIN 2.65 RESULT: LOSS -4.00
Spanish La liga: Mallorca -1 RISK 4.35 to WIN 7.00 RESULT: LOSS -4.35
Spanish La liga: Real Madrid -1/1.5 RISK 4.00 to WIN 2.5 RESULT: WIN +2.5
Spanish La liga: Barcelona -2/2.5 RISK 4.00 to WIN 2.6. RESULT: WIN +2.6
Spanish La liga: Valencia*-1 RISK 7.1 to WIN 5.0 RESULT: LOSS -7.1
English Premier League: Manchester United to WIN, RISK 4.42 to WIN 4.25. RESULT: WIN +4.25

WEEKEND TOTAL = +17.34 UNITS

This is 17 plays total. On the average week I will have anywhere between 10-20 plays in total. Obviously, at +17.34 units, this was a good weekend, however the previous 2 weekends have been just as good, which was the main inspiration behind starting this thread. My only fear is that, after such a good run, a down streak is inevitable! I was considering waiting a couple of weeks before starting this thread for this reason, but here it goes anyway..

For future reference, I will abbreviate the leagues for ease of posting, as follows:
Australian A league: A league
English Premier League: EPL
English Championship: EFL
German Bundesliga: German
Dutch Eredivise: Dutch
Spanish La Liga: La Liga

If anyone has any questions, or does not understand the Asian style soccer odds such as Liverpool*-0.5/1, feel free to ask.

[Wilba]

goodluck,and wellcome to u too

wow that was quick! A post already!

well thank you for your good wishes, and glad to have you on board. Hope I can steer some winners your way.

[phenomenon]

hope we all friend

[Wilba]

I see now that you have your own thread also! Looking forward to following that.

[phenomenon]

yeah but I am not betting continuosuly pal, just write there when I saw something nice

[latinrus]

I can see new people on the board! Nice!

BOL Pal!

[Wilba]

why thankyou!

[svenodds]

BOL

[Wilba]

well that's one big, fat, loss to start the thread with

League: Australian A league
Pick: Adelaide United -1.5
Risk: 4 units
Potential win: 4.36 units
Result: Loss -4.0 units

YTD: +53.24 units
Thread to date: -4.0 units

I will post quite a few for the European soccer games tomorrow night. cheers!

[Wilba]

These are not official plays but worth a mention - there is a lot of draws going on in the French league 2 at the moment. Of particular note are the following games to be draws:
Draw(Reims vs Clermont)*
Draw(Troyes vs Évian Thonon Gaillard FC)*
Draw(Nantes Atlantique vs Sedan)*
Draw(Vannes FC vs Le Havre)* especially this one.

Keep in mind draws pretty much always pay over 3.00, so winning 2/4 gives a decent profit. Be back tomorrow

[philliesfinest]

love betting the draw also ,but really do not follow french league 2

[Wilba]

ya lots of good value in draws. So far this season, in French ligue 2, draws have hit 109/327 games (33.33%). Average odds well over 3.0. We also have 11/20 teams hitting at least 7 draws in their 17 games. So pretty much, when any two of these 11 teams play each other, there is value for the draw IMO.

[spartangreen]

French 2 one of the better draw leagues around.

[Marginalis]

GL with this.

[Wilba]

These are not official plays but worth a mention - there is a lot of draws going on in the French league 2 at the moment. Of particular note are the following games to be draws:
Draw(Reims vs Clermont)*
Draw(Troyes vs Évian Thonon Gaillard FC)*
Draw(Nantes Atlantique vs Sedan)*
Draw(Vannes FC vs Le Havre)* especially this one.

Keep in mind draws pretty much always pay over 3.00, so winning 2/4 gives a decent profit. Be back tomorrow

RESULTS FROM LAST NIGHTS 'UNOFFICIAL' GAMES (3/4 DRAW PICKS WON):
Draw(Reims vs Clermont)* @ 3.26 LOSS -1 UNIT
Draw(Troyes vs Évian Thonon Gaillard FC)* @ 3.24 WIN +2.24 UNIT
Draw(Nantes Atlantique vs Sedan)* @ 3.19 WIN +2.19 UNIT
Draw(Vannes FC vs Le Havre)* especially this one. @ 3.01 WIN +2.01

As stated, these were not 'official' thread picks, but I will track the 'worth a mention' type bets (playing 1 unit on each) separately, just out of interest.

'UNOFFICIAL BET' RECORD: 3-1, +5.44 UNITS

OFFICIAL:
YTD: +53.24 units
Thread to date: -4.0 units

back again later today, quite a few on tonight

[Wilba]

GL with this.

thanks mate!

[Wilba]

I was planning on getting all my picks together then posting at once, but I have seen the line for this game decrease twice already since I placed my bet, so I will post this one now:

League: EPL
Pick: Sunderland PK ***
Risk: 7.69 units
Potential win: 4.25 units

This is one of the strongest picks (3 star ***) however, at odds of 1.552, is close to the lowest odds I would ever go to. BUT, in this game, I feel buying the extra insurance of money back for a draw is vital, as both Sunderland, and the team they play (Bolton) have drawn many games this season. (In fact, playing a draw at 3.42 for this game also seems decent value!) Very hard to see Sunderland losing though. Predicting either a tight win to sunderland, or a draw, for a win or cancelled bet respectively.

back in a few hours with the rest

[NYSportsGuy210]

If I bet Sunderland ML and the game ends in a draw do I lose the bet or get it refunded?

[Wilba]

If I bet Sunderland ML and the game ends in a draw do I lose the bet or get it refunded?

If you bet Sunderland ML, you are betting sunderland to WIN ONLY - hence if the game is a draw, a ML sunderland bet is a loss, because sunderland did not win, they drew.

I have taken sunderland PK, which means that if Sunderland wins, the bet wins. If Sunderland draws, the bet 'draws' and is a cancelled ticket/refund. Another way of looking at sunderland PK is that you are backing sunderland with a draw being a no bet.

understand it now?

[Wilba]

btw I LOOOVE your quote. That really is funny! (and in many ways true!)

[10mDive08]

That's a lot of juice to be laying the PK. For me, it seems worth it to bet the ML and/or parlay the PK w/ the o/u. What are your thoughts on that? Do you have an opinion on the total?

[NYSportsGuy210]

Okay I got it now. I think that is a safe bet then....Sunderland PK (-200) for $35.

[Wilba]

Okay I got it now. I think that is a safe bet then....Sunderland PK (-200) for $35.

unfortunately, yes, the juice has now increased. Which book are you with? as of 10 sec ago, at pinnacle, it is -194. When I placed the bet earlier today was -181. Obviously other people are jumping on sunderland also.

but yes, I think it is a very safe bet

[Wilba]

That's a lot of juice to be laying the PK. For me, it seems worth it to bet the ML and/or parlay the PK w/ the o/u. What are your thoughts on that? Do you have an opinion on the total?

All of my bets are carefully chosen, factoring many different things. I rated this game as a high chance of a draw. My rating came out at 53% chance sund win, 40% chance draw, 7% chance bolton win. therefore the best value was in the sunderland PK bet. (counting a draw as no bet with PK, this equates to 88% chance win, 12% chance loss)

I realise that this is a lot of juice, and as explained, usually I am more likely to play +500 'dogs than play high juice like this, but as you can see from my ratings, my reasoning for taking the high juice for PK rather than +112 for ML is that the PK has a higher expected return, due to the high likelihood of a draw.

If you really wanted to play something with a higher payout on this game in particular, I would play the draw rather than sund. ML. And if I was forced to pick a total to parley the PK with, I would go with UND 2.5, however I do not think there is a great deal of value in this.

As I said, there is always a great deal of calculations which go into each game I select, and the line which I select on that game. I have had a great deal of success doing this. If you want a better paying game, come back in 3-4 hours and there will be at least 4-5 to choose from with better payouts than this. This is a very good bet even with the high juice due to the extremely low chance of losing.

cheers

[10mDive08]

Appreciate the insight and numbers. Thanks!

[Wilba]

I will just post this one quickly now too, for fear the line drops as it did in the sunderland game:

League: EPL
Pick: Liverpool -1
Risk: 3.5 units
Potential win: 3.5 units

[Wilba]

Appreciate the insight and numbers. Thanks!

no worries! I am delighted to already have a few people in here following and asking questions! always happy to help

[Wilba]

Now for the German picks:

League: Germany
Pick: Schalke 04 -1/1.5 ***
Risk: 5.12 units
Potential win: 6.5 units

[Wilba]

League: Germany
Pick: Borussia Dortmund -1/1.5 ***
Risk: 5.45 units
Potential win: 9.0 units

This one has the best value so far. Borussia Dortmund have been playing in a league of their own this season, and 12 of their 16 games on the season have been Dortmund wins by 2+ goals - an incredible record really. They have been an absolute goldmine for me this season, so hopefully this continues for tonight, the last bundesliga round before the winter break.

[JW Cash]

All of my bets are carefully chosen, factoring many different things. I rated this game as a high chance of a draw. My rating came out at 53% chance sund win, 40% chance draw, 7% chance bolton win. therefore the best value was in the sunderland PK bet. (counting a draw as no bet with PK, this equates to 88% chance win, 12% chance loss)

I realise that this is a lot of juice, and as explained, usually I am more likely to play +500 'dogs than play high juice like this, but as you can see from my ratings, my reasoning for taking the high juice for PK rather than +112 for ML is that the PK has a higher expected return, due to the high likelihood of a draw.

If you really wanted to play something with a higher payout on this game in particular, I would play the draw rather than sund. ML. And if I was forced to pick a total to parley the PK with, I would go with UND 2.5, however I do not think there is a great deal of value in this.

As I said, there is always a great deal of calculations which go into each game I select, and the line which I select on that game. I have had a great deal of success doing this. If you want a better paying game, come back in 3-4 hours and there will be at least 4-5 to choose from with better payouts than this. This is a very good bet even with the high juice due to the extremely low chance of losing.

cheers

Hey Will....

GL with the thread....

If you are talking about the Sunderland/Bolton match..
the Greek has Sunderland +105 for the ML.....would
that be the same as PK in soccer??

Unfortunately being from the US...I do not have access to buying
insurance for a draw...so I am somewhat limited in my
soccer wagering....

[PickApprentice]

You can create your own insurance for a draw, by working out ta certain ratio.

[JW Cash]

You can create your own insurance for a draw, by working out ta certain ratio.

Can you give me an example as to how its done.....