The Karayilan thread

[Karayilan9]

MLS: Toronto v New York - Toronto PK 1.68 (-145) WIN

New York Red Bulls have been having a horrible time in the road and this isn't a new problem, they have gone 20 games straight spanning back to last season without winning a game away. This season they have managed 1 draw and 1 goal in 8 games while letting in 14 which is just awful. Now Toronto's home record isn't the strongest in the league either but its respectable, W4, D2, L3. Toronto beat New York a few days ago at home which boosted their confidence as they were on a two game loosing streak. Toronto with their added confidence should be able to take care of business at home today but can't be trusted to close games with their streaky record so I'll take the added insurance incase of a draw.

[RoagBettor]

Karayilan, what book do you use? Bookmaker soccer odds suck, they have Toronto ML at -143 and aren't even offering a PK play.

[tbill11]

How are you getting -145 for a pick'em? At Bookmaker its -143 just for a Toronto win. They also don't offer spreads which bothers me a bit...but yeah. Would you recommend making the play if a draw is not a factor?

[TheLemonDropKid]

MLS: Toronto v New York - Toronto PK 1.68 (-145)

New York Red Bulls have been having a horrible time in the road and this isn't a new problem, they have gone 20 games straight spanning back to last season without winning a game away. This season they have managed 1 draw and 1 goal in 8 games while letting in 14 which is just awful. Now Toronto's home record isn't the strongest in the league either but its respectable, W4, D2, L3. Toronto beat New York a few days ago at home which boosted their confidence as they were on a two game loosing streak. Toronto with their added confidence should be able to take care of business at home today but can't be trusted to close games with their streaky record so I'll take the added insurance incase of a draw.

How do you place that bet? Do you bet them to win and then bet on the draw as two separate bets?

[shhhhh22]

Dang the greek really sux on soccer odds.

[Karayilan9]

RoagBettor Karayilan, what book do you use? Bookmaker soccer odds suck, they have Toronto ML at -143 and aren't even offering a PK play.

On Betfair the ML was +110 (2.08), the Draw was +250 (3.5), I did it manually as they arn't offering the -0 outright.

The European books and exchanges usually offer much better odds for MLS and American sports in general, the US books generally offer better odds for European and world soccer.

Toronto ML -143 are terrible odds, are there no better odds on other US books?

[JoeBlow84]

Sorry if this is a bother, but could please you show how you computed the wager then with those 2 lines?

[Karayilan9]

There are two options.

Either a straightforward asian handicap, however, sometimes books and exchanges won't offer the exact handicap you want outright, Bet365 let you choose as many combinations as you like but on Betfair your restricted to whats available.

The alternative is to create the PK yourself, bet on the ML and Draw, its more hassle but sometimes you get better value so it can be worth it.

[tbill11]

There are two options.

Either a straightforward asian handicap, however, sometimes books and exchanges won't offer the exact handicap you want outright, Bet365 let you choose as many combinations as you like but on Betfair your restricted to whats available.

The alternative is to create the PK yourself, bet on the ML and Draw, its more hassle but sometimes you get better value so it can be worth it.

If you were to bet on the moneyline and the draw, though, you'd make zero profit if the moneyline hit unless you wagered more than one unit on the moneyline. Doesn't seem worth it to me...

[Karayilan9]

Tbill
If you were to bet on the moneyline and the draw, though, you'd make zero profit if the moneyline hit unless you wagered more than one unit on the moneyline. Doesn't seem worth it to me...

I bet a unit on the ML and a fraction of a unit to cover on the draw, so you it hurts the profit but eliminates a loss on the draw, in games you think a game could be a win or draw long term its best to eliminate as many draws as possible as they can be a money burner.

If your not wagering large amounts it doesn't seem very attractive but there is nothing worse in soccer than a game when your team should have one but ended up drawing and you lost because you were greedy.

[RoagBettor]

If you wagered $100 on the ML at -143 and $45 on the Draw at +225, if the ML hits you'd win about $25 and if the Draw hits you'd win $1.25.

[shhhhh22]

So my only options for this game are:

Toronto -0.5 -109 New York Red Bulls +0.5 -111

Would you just leave it alone??

[Karayilan9]

Copa Libertadores: Cruzerio v Gremio - Under 2.5 goals @ -120 LOSS

First leg of 2 leg cup ties usually are cagey affairs, especially between the big Brazilian sides, they have a midfield battle and don't have too many chances. Cruzerio got hammered in the Brazilian league last game by a weaker side so they will have been working on the defense. Gremio have a good defense and especially in Copa games against strong sides when on the road they play a tight game. Cruzerio are missing the attacking threat of their up and coming superstar Ramirez whose with the Brazil squad in the Confederations cup. They were missing that creative spark in their last few games. Cruzerio are 5-0 against Gremio at home however, Gremio know this and will try to get a draw or sneak an away goal and try to win this at home. Cruzerio are missing some of their attacking force and will find it hard to break down this team.

[Karayilan9]

Roagbetter
If you wagered $100 on the ML at -143 and $45 on the Draw at +225, if the ML hits you'd win about $25 and if the Draw hits you'd win $1.25.

To be honest at those odds I wouldn't even bet on the ML, I saw value in the +108 and +250 draw that's the reason I took it, the odds on your book reflect what the line should really be at. Do you have access to other books or are they all offering those odds?

I like the Copa Libertadores game more.

Shhh2
So my only options for this game are:

Toronto -0.5 -109 New York Red Bulls +0.5 -111

Would you just leave it alone??

If I had to chose it would be Toronto, New York can't be trusted on the road, if your unsure leave this one there are more games later.

[shhhhh22]

Good call. you are right... money management is the key. I do like your Copa Libertadores pick though

[RoagBettor]

At The Greek, the over 2.5 on the Colorado game is -115, at Bookmaker it's -140. Bookmaker odds are simply not as good for most sports except perhaps baseball.

[aznjeff07]

-149 for the under on the gremio game.......crappy juice
So basically my question is this game worth wagering?

[Karayilan9]

Aznjeff
-149 for the under on the gremio game.......crappy juice
So basically my question is this game worth wagering?

The lowest the line should be is -130, who is offering those odds? that's terrible, the lines vary between -130 / -110 on most the books I've checked, have you checked other books or exchanges, if you shop around there should be better odds around.

[aznjeff07]

that's what the greek has. i had -110 for the us o/u game earlier while you had +120 i believe....i took it anyways, but -149 is extremely crappy

[chipper13101]

Toronto cashes! Kara-man yer a genius. Props to ya. Kaching!!

[shhhhh22]

2-0 Cruzerio early 2H... lets play defense rest of the way boys!

[kmarinouofm]

nice call on toronto homie.. hope you sweep tonight..

[RoagBettor]

3-0, oh well.

[Vreston]

Why don't you guys try bwin or bet365?

I can place bets (at much lower odds) on 1 or X, X or 2, 1 or 2, etc.
Where 1=home win, X=draw, 2=away team win.

Have a look at these books and let us know if they don't allow it in the States.

[Vreston]

Good calls Karayilan!

That under bet was not for people with heart problems!

I really thought this one would go over with goals from both sides. I saw Spain pounding the US in the second half but not putting the ball in the net. Like I said before the US don't give a sh*t who they're playing. They don't give up. I didn't expect them to win though. I didn't play anything on this game. Lucky for me bcs I would've taken the over.
You cashed in the cards didn't you? That was a great call.

On to today. Brazil -1.5 still looks good to me.

BOL!

[Karayilan9]

Vreston, were on the same side today, I was thinking Over2.5 goals and think Brazil could score 3-4 goals by themselves. But I like the odds on -1.5. In my opinion South Africa may have trouble scoring because they lack quality strikers, they have got into a few positions but the finishing has been poor. If they go down a goal against Brazil they have to attack making it easier for Brazil to get another.

Confederations Cup: Brazil v South Africa - Brazil -1.5 @ +100

Brazil have been turning it up a gear every game since they played Uruguay back in their World Cup Qualifiers, they had a minor blip against Egypt but since then havn't let in a goal, forget that they've hardly had to deal with an attack. South Africa have been a real let down, they haven't shown anything to get excited about but keep getting hyped up by the press because they want the home team to do something.

The books are playing with peoples minds in this game, USA beat Spain yesterday so they are playing on the fears of another upset. In my opinion an upset is less likely to happen today. South Africa have a slow defense, they will be vulnerable today because of the variety of the Brazil attack. They will pass directly into the box, if they can't get in they'll try and run past the defenders, then they'll take long shots and the new addition to Brazils attack is they can take corners, crosses and set-pieces and now get a header onto it. Also South Africa are not a very disciplined team, they move out of position and try to get forward alot more than they should be and you don't want to leave yourself open against this team in their current form.

South Africa will get a false confidence from USA yesterday and Brazil will take the game more seriously. Also this cup is important to Brazil, Dunga needs a cup to the teams name, 2-3 months ago this team were getting slated in their country. Even today there are many Brazilians skeptical about them, this will put the critics to rest for now. Luis Fabiano wants his golden boot, one more goal will get him it. Brazil want to put on a show and give the world and all their doubters a message.

[Biff Webster]

My book only has the ML and the O/U. I dont want to put anything down on brazil -400, but i do have the OVER 2.5 at -130. Should I go ahead and knock out the over?

[MexicanStallion]

What does -1.5, -2 mean?

[Biff Webster]

-1.5 goals, you are betting a team wins by 2 goals or more.

[MexicanStallion]

-1.5 goals, you are betting a team wins by 2 goals or more.

I understand that. On 5dimes there is an option -1.5, -2 (+136). I just don't know how that bet works with two spreads together.

[Biff Webster]

I understand that. On 5dimes there is an option -1.5, -2 (+136). I just don't know how that bet works with two spreads together.

Ok I gotchya, I have never seen that before.

[Karayilan9]

BiffWebster
My book only has the ML and the O/U. I dont want to put anything down on brazil -400, but i do have the OVER 2.5 at -130. Should I go ahead and knock out the over?

My initial lean was Over2.5 goals and I thought Brazil could score 3 themselves. However, I saw value in the -1.5 lines odds which are better than they should be due to the books playing on the upset yesterday.

The Over2.5 goals should be around -120/-110, the Over is likely to hit in this match. I can't tell you to take it or not thats your decision but if you asked me which I would play it would be the Over.

MexicanStallion
I understand that. On 5dimes there is an option -1.5, -2 (+136). I just don't know how that bet works with two spreads together.

-1.5, -2 asian handicap means, If Brazil win by 2 you get half your money back, if they win by 2 you push if they win by 3 you win.

This wager should be played if you think Brazil will win by 3, I don't like this type of handicap, if I capped them to win by 3 I'd play -2.5 straight.

[bigjonson]

My initial lean was Over2.5 goals and I thought Brazil could score 3 themselves. However, I saw value in the -1.5 lines odds which are better than they should be due to the books playing on the upset yesterday.

The Over2.5 goals should be around -120/-110, the Over is likely to hit in this match. I can't tell you to take it or not thats your decision but if you asked me which I would play it would be the Over.



-1.5, -2 asian handicap means, If Brazil win by 2 you get half your money back, if they win by 2 you push if they win by 3 you win.

This wager should be played if you think Brazil will win by 3, I don't like this type of handicap, if I capped them to win by 3 I'd play -2.5 straight.

BoDog has Brazil at -1 1/2 -140

What the fvck?????

[Biff Webster]

Thanks Karayilan, I am going to wait to see if my like drops and bit, but I am definately going with the over. I might even throw the over and ML into a 2 teamer.

[MexicanStallion]

-1.5, -2 asian handicap means, If Brazil win by 2 you get half your money back, if they win by 2 you push if they win by 3 you win.

This wager should be played if you think Brazil will win by 3, I don't like this type of handicap, if I capped them to win by 3 I'd play -2.5 straight.

Thank you for clarifying. I just plan on tailing your plays. Thanks for sharing your plays. Lets cash today