The Karayilan thread

oda11 · 07-02-09, 09:33 PM

Hey Karayilan9,

Didn't you post an UNDER play earlier? LOL, I tailed you as soon as I saw it, I think it hit...?

Karayilan9 · 07-02-09, 09:53 PM

I posted the Over2.5 goals but posted it late so I scrapped the play, the Over hit though lol

Should have some picks for tomorrow and the weekend.

oda11 · 07-02-09, 09:56 PM

haha, nice!

but yeh, thanks anyway lol. and gl!

Karayilan9 · 07-02-09, 09:59 PM

Haha you were one of the few people that got on the unofficial play

oda11 · 07-02-09, 10:10 PM

Originally posted by Karayilan9

Haha you were one of the few people that got on the unofficial play

sometimes i get punished for jumping on actions early, sometime i get rewarded, thanks again!

Biff Webster · 07-03-09, 08:54 AM

I have very limited lines in soccer, but i do have an MLS game on the board, San Jose @ Real Salt Lake. Anything you like in that?

sportsguy04 · 07-03-09, 12:07 PM

Kara,

Check out the Norweigan T league for tommorrow.

Molde -.5 at Bodo/glimt EVEN $.

Molde is in 2nd place glimt in 2nd last place.

Karayilan9 · 07-03-09, 01:28 PM

MLS: RSL vs San Jose - RSL WIN -125 LOSS

San Jose are alone with New York Red Bulls the worst team on road in the MLS, they haven't won on road this season, they haven't won on road for 16 games. I have faded San Jose and Red Bulls on road, that's over 15 winners and like I said last game with New York, teams like this will be faded until they can prove themselves on the road.

RSL are unbeaten in 4 games and have a strong home record, they also have a tough stadium to play in due to the altitude, its hard for any team to get results there which is why they have only lost once at home this season. Their forward Movsisyan has regained his confidence and composure, he's sored 4 goals in 3 games and will be a danger against the San Jose which has leaked in 17 goals in 7 games on the road.

There are a few missing players for RSL, Beckerman will be the biggest miss, Morales and Espindola are questionable but Espindola will most likely play. San Jose are missing defender Cochrane. The missing players are the main worry for RSL but they should be able to overcome this and get another home win today.

Spaceviews · 07-03-09, 01:39 PM

First off let me say Great work!! My book has RSL at -1 (+105) & 2.5 over(-122) That means RSL would have to win by 2 in order for a win, & a loss if it ties- would you still take RSL? I hold your opinion in the highest reguard so your input would be MOST HELPFUL!!! THANK YOU IN ADVANCE!!!

mariomonte · 07-03-09, 01:49 PM

Originally posted by Karayilan9

MLS: RSL vs San Jose - RSL WIN -125

Just curious: When did you get RSL Win at -125?
I have checked several sources and wasn't able to find anything above 1.7/-142 - as mentioned in Turkzz's thread.

Karayilan9 · 07-03-09, 02:20 PM

Mariomonte
Just curious: When did you get RSL Win at -125?
I have checked several sources and wasn't able to find anything above 1.7/-142 - as mentioned in Turkzz's thread.

It was 1.8/-125 earlier today on Betfair, I just checked and it keeps shifting between 1.7-1.75, I think its likely to drop further by game time.

Spaceviews
First off let me say Great work!! My book has RSL at -1 (+105) & 2.5 over(-122) That means RSL would have to win by 2 in order for a win, & a loss if it ties- would you still take RSL? I hold your opinion in the highest reguard so your input would be MOST HELPFUL!!! THANK YOU IN ADVANCE!!!

Thanks

RSL are a streaky team, when they win its usually by a few goals at home, last game they beat Toronto who was on a great run 3-0, New England 6-0 and Columbus 4-1.

San Jose's defense can't be trusted to keep a clean sheet, there last 5 games away have been Over 2.5 goals.

I have capped RSL to win by more than 1 goal but I saw value in what the exchange was offering for the ML.

The final call though is yours. BOL tonight.

mariomonte · 07-03-09, 02:39 PM

Originally posted by Karayilan9

It was 1.8/-125 earlier today on Betfair, I just checked and it keeps shifting between 1.7-1.75, I think its likely to drop further by game time.

Ok, of course I looked up Betfair too, but the best half-way serious trade you could ever get was 1.78 before commission; and I don't expect that many people will get even those.

I only wanted to be sure that there is no super MLS bookie I have no account at yet.

Nonetheless: Many thanks for your great work especially at MLS capping. It's so hard to get your fix at (real) football betting during the summer, and it's even more difficult to get a competent and profitable information source

Wilforth · 07-03-09, 02:42 PM

Kara,

What do you think of Union Espanola +275 tomorrow at Universidad de Chile?

Spaceviews · 07-03-09, 02:51 PM

Thank You for your response

Gonna GO FOR IT!!!!! Thinking the over as well(small).
Best of Luck with your plays, And Thanks again!!!

BOOKED, Lets cash this!!!

Karayilan9 · 07-03-09, 04:02 PM

Wilforth
What do you think of Union Espanola +275 tomorrow at Universidad de Chile?

I've never watched Espanola before, Universidad I know from the Copa Libertadores, not a bad team but they had a shoddy defense. Based on the stats these are the two best teams in the league, Chile is at home and has a great record there especially against Espanola, they havn't lost since 2005. I usually take dogs in these type of games on the +0.5 handicap as it will still be over +100. However, as I've never seen Espanola I can't comment on them.

BOL if you play them tomorrow.

I am leaning Jamaica ML @ +130 or -0 today aswell, only thing worrying me is Jamaica's midfield. They have a good defense, only let in 5 goals in 8 games, actually they are unbeaten in 13 games so are playing well. Fuller will give the Canadian defense a tough time with his speed and pysichal prescense. They are playing in LA's stadium so there is alot of room which will be a benefit to Jamaica who are the faster and more pyhsical of the two teams.

Wilforth · 07-03-09, 04:10 PM

I like the Jamaica play as well. I may jump on it.

tbill11 · 07-03-09, 05:47 PM

Since RSL odds aren't great at some of the more popular books for us Americans, here's a pretty decent parlay:

RSL -181
Jamaica PK -160

Pays 1.5:1 and I don't really see this one not hitting. Best of luck all!

Panekkkk · 07-03-09, 11:19 PM

Wow both Jamaica and RSL a no-show!

Spaceviews · 07-03-09, 11:24 PM

I guess I picked the wrong day to tail both picks. What do you do???? Dust yourself off & learn from it, or you really DID lose something for nothing. Enjoy the rest of your night, Better luck tomorrow. Thanks again for the work you put in to it

Karayilan9 · 07-04-09, 05:21 AM

RSL screwed up, they had chances given to them on the plate but couldn't take any until time added on. San Jose did play better defense this game and tried out new tactics but RSL just had one of those days.

TheLock · 07-04-09, 10:55 AM

Losses happen. We move on to a new day.

Are you leaning towards fading New York today Karayilan?

thegenix · 07-04-09, 01:52 PM

Tons of soccer today. Looking forward to Karayilan's picks!

Karayilan9 · 07-04-09, 05:38 PM

MLS: Columbus vs DC United - Under 2.5 goals +110 WIN

MLS: Kansas vs Houston Dynamo - Under 2.5 goals WIN

TheLock

Are you leaning towards fading New York today Karayilan?

New York most probably won't win again today however, Dallas are a poor team themselves and will be without their top goalscorers, it looks like it will be an Under. Alot of games with midfielders and strikers in the Gold Cup will be weaker offensively this week.

sweetjones55 · 07-04-09, 05:53 PM

Karalyian, what do you think about DC United? I am thinking 4th of July.. DC United... Sounds like fate that they win today.

Karayilan9 · 07-04-09, 05:59 PM

Dallas should be able to beat the sorry New York team on the road, however, they are missing their top strikers. Its wise to fade New York on the road, the result will most likely be a Dallas win or Draw.

sweetjones55 · 07-04-09, 06:53 PM

Originally posted by sweetjones55

Karalyian, what do you think about DC United? I am thinking 4th of July.. DC United... Sounds like fate that they win today.

DC up 1-0

Emily_Haines · 07-04-09, 08:02 PM

That's the 2nd week in a row that Columbus looked like shit. I think they had 1 or 2 shots on goal the whole game. They are lucky DC had those strikers out or this one might have got ugly. Jeez the DC backups had over 20 total shots taken with half of them on goal.

Karayilan9 · 07-04-09, 08:27 PM

The public was all over the Over 2.5 goals in the Columbus vs DC United match because of DC leaking in goals on the road. However, they had two weeks off and during this period were working on their defense during this period. In addition to this these two teams are rivals, their head to head games have been Under 2.5 goals since as far back as anybody can remember and there missing players due to the Gold Cup.

First Under 2.5 cashes, lets hope the second one does aswell.

Emily, there will be alot of squandered chances during the Gold Cup period, a team to watch for Over 2.5 goals is La Galaxy when Donovan and Beckham return, as long as they put their differences aside, goals will fly in as their is no passer, crosser and set-piece taker like Beckham in the MLS, he will tear defenses in half with these balls. Donovan will be the target man who will exploit defenses. When these two played together last season 80% of games went Over.

sweetjones55 · 07-04-09, 08:32 PM

Karilyian, any lean on the 11:00 PM game? Galaxy -116/Revolution +338, Over 2.5 +105, Under 2.5 -125

Karayilan9 · 07-04-09, 09:16 PM

SweetJones
Karilyian, any lean on the 11:00 PM game? Galaxy -116/Revolution +338, Over 2.5 +105, Under 2.5 -125

This is a strange match-up, Revolutions struggle on the road while Galaxy have been struggling to win at home. 6 of their last home games have gone under, however, Donovan had been out for 5. Galaxy are missing their goalkeeper who is playing for Jamaica in the Gold Cup. Revolutions are missing their two centrebacks and this could cause serious problems in their already vulnerable attack. The lean is Over 2.5 goals however, Donavon may need some time to adjust, alot of players don't play their best in the first game back from internationals. I think Galaxy should win or at least get a draw from this game.

sweetjones55 · 07-04-09, 09:24 PM

I was thinking over also. 4 out of their last 5 matchups have gone over 2.5. Last 4 MLS NE games have gone over. 2 out of 4 last MLS LA games have gone over but like you said they added back one of the better offensive weapons. Galaxy goalie is also out which could cost them a goal. The line just dropped from +105 to +101 on the over.

Spaceviews · 07-04-09, 09:52 PM

Hello Karayilan9, If you are in the States I hope you are having a great 4th. If not......I hope your having a good 4th anyway

My book does not offer the draw option with the NE/Galaxy game- would you say the over is a safer bet?? Your reply is most appreciated!! THANX

Spaceviews · 07-04-09, 09:55 PM

REV+115/Galaxy-144 2.5 over-105 under -125

Karayilan9 · 07-04-09, 10:04 PM

There are your two 4th of July winners from me, hope you all had a great day

Spaceviews, the most value in the LA game is on the Over 2.5 goals, however, my only doubts are LA's scoring record at home and if Donovan can fit right back into his role. If Donovan is playing like Donovan they should be able to penetrate New Englands weakened defense which was weak without the injuries. Galaxies second goalkeeper may be a little shaky which could be a bonus for the Revlutions in the scoring department. The LA stadium has one of the largest pitches, there is alot of free space to get into however, they have lacked the quality lately to finish their chances.

Spaceviews · 07-04-09, 10:37 PM

Thank You for the Heads-Up Karayilan

I was at a party earlier & missed your two winners

I have faith though. I appreciate your response

Hopefully I can catch you tomorrow. Have a great
night & THANX again!!