The Karayilan thread

[Karayilan9]

Current record: W 63. P 8. L 33

Welcome to the thread, feel free to contribute and join me become the bookies worst nightmare.

I will be posting the reasoning behind most of picks and also tactics and strategies I use to try and beat the books.

If you know your soccer/football then get involved!

Let's do this! its time to make p'z

[Karayilan9]

2 early picks

Turkish Super League - Haceteppe vs Besiktas : Besiktas Win

Scottish cup - St Mirren vs Celtic : Celtic Win -1

More to come later with write ups.

Bundesliga - Hoffenheim vs Werder Bremen: Over 2.5 goals / Hoffenheim +0 (Also odds on Hoffenheim Win are very good, Win is +200, even with their injuries they shouldn't be such a heavy underdog, Bremen are very unpredictable especially Away)

Bundesliga - Wolfsburg - Karlsruher: Home win, Wolfsburg are the best home team in the league and fully focused on the league.

[Karayilan9]

Scottish cup - St Mirren vs Celtic : Celtic Win -1 - LOSS

Celtic were a footballing embarasment today suffering a humilating loss.

Bundesliga - Wolfsburg - Karlsruher: Home win - WIN

Wolfsburg do what they always do at home, WIN

Bundesliga - Hoffenheim vs Werder Bremen: Over 2.5 goals / Hoffenheim +0 - LOSS / WIN

I'm in shock as to how not even a single goal was scored in this game, Hoffenheim hit the post 4 TIMES! Bremen missed about ten one on ones, it was unreal.

Anyway odds on Hoffenheim +0 were higher so it was an overall win.

2-2 so far, Besiktas is starting in half an hour, there may be some La Liga picks later aswell.

[Karayilan9]

Turkish Super League - Haceteppe vs Besiktas : Besiktas Win WIN

Besiktas tried their hardest to make an easy win look hard, they went 2-0 up then let in a goal, then went 3-1 up and let in a last minute goal winning 3-2.

3-2 on the day, may play Villareal later just looking into it a little deeper.

No more games today, Overall total now stands at W 27. P 5. L 15

[Karayilan9]

Turkish league - Sivasspor vs Ankaraspor: Under 2.5 goals/ Sivas Win

Sivasspor took a dip in the past week, Ankaraspor has been sliding for 5-6 weeks, Sivas usually has a solid defense and has only let in more than 3 goals in a match twice this season. I think Sivasspor should bounce back with a win and keep it a tight match causing the under.

[turnip]

Sivasspor 1-0 at halftime, so both of your bets are looking good. Ankaraspor actually dominated possession and scoring chances in the first half, but they lack the finishing touch, and Sivasspor is defending well. Good luck.

[Karayilan9]

Turnip
Sivasspor 1-0 at halftime, so both of your bets are looking good. Ankaraspor actually dominated possession and scoring chances in the first half, but they lack the finishing touch, and Sivasspor is defending well. Good luck.

It was a crazy start, Sivas scored in the first minute then Ankaraspor had some great chances to pull it level but Sivas have managed to kill the game for the time being.

Only half-time, got 45 minutes of stress left now

[Karayilan9]

Now its time to make this a Win-Win-Win, I explained what I did in another of my posts but for those that missed it.

From previous posts
Chelsea vs Wigan - Under 2.5 +100 - Loss Well today record wise it wasn't good, infact it was awfull. However, I actually made alot of money today and I'm going to explain how.

The key to soccer betting is "in-game betting". To make money in this area you have to use the system to your advantage and where possible create a situation where you can only win in a game.

I'll use the games above as examples.

The Chelsea vs Wigan game, when Chelsea scored as I predicted they tried to kill the game, they defended and did not take any risks in being too attackive.
The books know that Chelsea has done the same so many times this season so inflate the odds for the "Over 2.5" goals and lower the Under 2.5 goals so low its not worth taking.

The Odds for Under 2.5 goals at the beginning of the game were +100, by the 60th minute the odds for over 2.5 goals was +700.

If you put $100 on the Under at the start of game you make $100 profit.
Then if you put $30 on the Over in the 60th minute you make $210 - $100 = $110 profit if its Over. If it stays under you make $70. Whatever you do its profit.

Now you can play around with it and its more tricky then it sounds but if you watch soccer and know when to act, for example key substitutions, tactical changes, injuries, red cards etc you can make life alot less stressfull.

I got Sivasspor Under 2.5 @ +100, right now in the 65th minute the Over 2.5 goals is @ +400.

$200 on Under gives a profit of $200 for the Under
$80 on the Over gives $320 profit.

So now either way. its 200-80 = $120 for the Under. 320-200 = $120 for the Over.

Its now wrapped up and a 100% sure bet

[Karayilan9]

Turkish league - Sivasspor vs Ankaraspor: Under 2.5 goals/ Sivas Win WIN / LOSS

The match stayed under but Sivas couldn't hang on to the lead and didn't deserve to either, they got punished for trying to sit back on a 1-0 lead.

[Karayilan9]

La liga - Deportivo vs Santander: Under 2.5

Both teams have very solid defense, Deportivo has trouble scoring, I have watched many of their matches and almost fell asleep in half of them except when I faded them twice against Aalborg who had odds of +500.

Turkish League - Kayserispor vs Fenerbahce: Over 2.5

[Karayilan9]

La liga - Deportivo vs Santander: Under 2.5 - LOSS

There was about 10 goals in this match it was all over in 30 minutes, a straight up loss.

Turkish League - Kayserispor vs Fenerbahce: Over 2.5 - WIN

This one was should have been an Over, I have no idea how it stayed under but I'm not complaining

2-2 so far, there may be one more match, checking out Getafe - Malaga.

[dre3000]

Deportivo match was a suprise.

[Karayilan9]

Dre the Deportivo match was insane, Santander have had one Over 2.5 in their last 5 games, Deportivo had forgotten the art of scoring but all that changed today in this freak result.

Today has been crazy and there hasn't been one under in La Liga
I picked Malaga for the Over but forgot to post it here

2-2 today, Champions League is on this week, looking to cripple the bookies on those games.

Overall record. W 29. P 5. L 17

[Karayilan9]

Champions League: Panathinaikos vs Villareal - Villareal -0 / Over 2.5

Anybody who watched the first match knows Panathanaikos are so very lucky they didn't get blown out, Villareal totally dominated and played much better but had one of those days were the ball just wouldn't go in. Panathanaikos only had a few chances in the game, scoring a spectacular long range effort.

Anyway back to this match.

Panathinaikos have 4 injured players comming into this match.
Villareal have their strikeforce back, Nihat and Rossi should play.
Neither of these teams have exactly a watertight defense, if the Greeks come to the match to defend they will be in serious trouble.

I'm backing Villareal and there to be a few goals in the game.


Liverpool vs Real Madrid - Liverpool Draw No Bet / Under 2.5

Liverpool have a great record at Anfield and know how to grind out a draw. They will sit back and hit Real on the break with El Nino and this could be devastating! Anyone who watched the Atletico - Real match knows when Madrid play an open game and attack their defense is left vulnerable for the counter, Atletico exploited this and I wouldn't be suprised if Liverpool did the same.

I'm going for the Under aswell because I think Liverpool will do their best to kill the game and keep it scrappy and tight. However, if Torres is on form and as this match is against his big rival (he's originally an Atletico boy) I think he will be on his A game! it could go over due to the counters, this could be a risky one.

Bayern Munich vs Sporting Lisbon - Over 2.5

Sporting and Munich have many injured and suspended players going into this match. Bayerns replacements however, are very strong and will want to proove themselves. Lisbon want to save some pride. This could be an open game with a few goals. I don't think Bayern will take it that easy either, if they stay true to the German mentallity they must play their best to the end and not think its over.

[dre3000]

Liverpool draw/no bet is a winner. Unless it goes to penalties with 0-1

[Karayilan9]

Dre
Liverpool draw/no bet is a winner. Unless it goes to penalties with 0-1

I think Liverpool could win this outright, Benitez has an amazing Champions League record and Real will be vulnerable to counters with Torres playing. I can picture Real attacking then Gerrard or Alonso picking out a killer long ball to Torres, lets hope it works out for us tonight.

[dennisback]

im playing liverpool +0.5 for savety they didnt lose @ home since last february. thats 40 games !!!

[SoonerGreg]

Why is everyone else on Panathinaikos? I don't know much about either side and your write seems the most logical. I was just curious.

[dre3000]

Liverpool are also on a 2 weeks rest. And Gerrard is finally playing with Torres

[Karayilan9]

SoonerGreg
Why is everyone else on Panathinaikos? I don't know much about either side and your write seems the most logical. I was just curious.

Most people are just following each other, I haven't come across anyone betting on the team that have actually watched them play.

From actually watching both teams.

- Neither team has a good defense.
- Villareal is an offensive playing team with two excellent strikers
- Panathinaikos play a good counter attack
- Panathinaikos have a rowdy home crowd
- Villareal has a fantastic goalkeeper
- Villareal has more class and outplayed Pana in the first leg, they must attack in this game, should be an open game, potential for goals.

But this is champions league and anything can happen, just hope it happens for Villarael

[SoonerGreg]

I did play:
Liverpool Win +120
Liverpool Draw +210
Chealsea Win +190
Chealsea Draw +205

I was thinking about a Vil win and draw bet as well but I got your info just as they kicked off. GL to you on Vil.

Liverpool has already had two excellent scoring chances with great saves by Casillas in the first 4 minutes.

[SoonerGreg]

Liverpool up 1-0 15min in.

[dre3000]

2-0......... Highly contraversial penalty.... WTF was that? I didn't see any hand play

[SoonerGreg]

I'll take it but that was not a hand ball. It hit his shoulder

[SoonerGreg]

Chelsea 1-1 at half
Liverpool 2-0 at half

[Karayilan9]

Sooner, 4 mins into the game I played an additional Liverpool Win aswell, they were just too good to resist. Torres is tearing them up even more than I expected, this is what I feared for the under, who cares this is great football and if LFC wins its big bucks @ +150

Common LFC

When you walk through a storm
Hold your head up high,
And don't be afraid of the dark,
At the end of a storm,
There's a golden sky,
And the sweet silver song of a lark,
Walk on through the wind,
Walk on through the rain,
Though your dreams be tossed and blown,
Walk on, walk on, with hope in your heart,
And you'll never walk alone,
You'll never walk alone,
Walk on, walk on, with hope in your heart,
And you'll never walk alone,
You'll never walk alone

[Karayilan9]

MUNCHEN OVER 2.5 - WIN

[dre3000]

3-0 Wooohooooo Reds are the best

[SoonerGreg]

Thank goodness for Drogba! He scored to tie it up in 83rd.

[Karayilan9]

Outside the Shankly Gates,
I heard a Kopite calling,
Shankly they have taken you away,
But you left the great eleven,
Just before they took you to heaven,
And the Redmen are still playing the same way.




All round the fields of Anfield Road,
Where once we watched the king Kenny play,
We had Heighway was on the wing,
We had dreams and songs to sing,
Of the glory round the fields of Anfield Road.
Outside the Paisley Gates,
I heard a Kopite calling
Paisley they have taken you away,
But you led the great eleven
Back in Rome in seventy seven
And the Redmen are still playing the same way


LIVERPOOL - WIN

What a match, 5-0 on aggregate and a beautiful game, went just as I capped it, Real Madrid was way too over-rated and anyone who watched the Atletico match should would have seen that they are weak against counter attacks and LFC sure can counter with Torres upfront and Gerrard and Alonso feeding balls to him.

Liverpool Under 2.5 - LOSS

Oh well can't have it all but I couldn't care cos Liverpool were so great.

[SoonerGreg]

Karalyin,
Nice call on Villareal and the over on B.M. Nice day!

[Karayilan9]

!!! El Submarino Amarillo !!!

Villareal - WIN

Villareal Over 2.5 - WIN

Secret Villareal ML play for - +220 WIN (its not counted for my record I didnt publicise it)

[Karayilan9]

SoonerGreg
Karalyin,
Nice call on Villareal and the over on B.M. Nice day!

Thanks Sooner, it was my strongest play of the day, they clearly deserved it, had a legit goal disallowed and missed a few one and one's, Pana were way too overated and the public just jumped aboard and sank the boat.

Almost a clean swoop, lets get those books tomorrow and go for the smackdown. I'm celebrating tonight had alot on those games



Overall record. W 33. P 5. L 18

[SoonerGreg]

I tried to bet on the yellow but I was a tad to late. Let's hit'em tomorrow!

[Karayilan9]

Champions League: Porto vs Atletico Madrid - Atletico Madrid +0,+0.5 +160 / OVER 2.5 Goals

Atletico Madrid are a joy to watch and recently they have been playing their best football all season. They beat Barcelona and should drew to Real although they really should have won it. They are an offensive team, attack, attack, attack is their game its what they do best. However, their defense is SHAKY to say the least and this is their major problem.

Porto is also in good form but the Spanish league and Portugese have a huge quality difference. Yes Porto are also a good team but in my opinion Atletico right now is on fire. Plus Porto have their captain, Pedro Emanuel and defender Benitez injured, these two defenders are out and their goalkeeper is prone to making mistakes and blunders. This is will play into the hands of Atletico, Porto will try and sit back as a 0-0 and even 1-1 draw will see them advance. However, if they get pushed back by Atletico with these defensive problems they could be in big trouble.

Atletico can always let in goals thats why I picked Over 2.5 goals aswell.

I may sprinkly a little on the Atletico ML @ +300 but thats an in-game decision.