Odds arent necessary what the book expects to happen. Its what the book expects the public to be betting on.....
New Method more Money - Football aka Soccer
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onemoregoalSBR Hall of Famer
- 02-04-13
- 8149
#491Comment -
EasyPicksSBR MVP
- 10-21-11
- 3804
#492
See poisson distribution for football.
Cheers.
Gl tonightComment -
EasyPicksSBR MVP
- 10-21-11
- 3804
#493FRIDAY ACTION
Bet 146# Monaco HT @1 90 [4u]Comment -
onemoregoalSBR Hall of Famer
- 02-04-13
- 8149
#494How am I wrong then? I said odds arent necessary always what the book expects to happen. They take into consideration especially for big games that a lot of money will be on the big names.....
"In addition to the chances of a team winning, they have to account for the money that is likely to be placed. In the Manchester United example, most people would back the Red Devils to to win at Old Trafford and therefore the odds will be shorter than perhaps the precise chances of victory. "
http://www.goal.com/en/news/3049/ask...g-odds-createdComment -
EasyPicksSBR MVP
- 10-21-11
- 3804
#495Well my brother in law is a trader at a mjor UK bookie and he says the ezample that you just gave works after the lines are set! The first lines for each specific match will be found only based on mathematical grounds (historical data will obviously....
Fkk it. Enough with this discussionComment -
EasyPicksSBR MVP
- 10-21-11
- 3804
#496Damn Monaco. Falcao whats out already...ohh boy. Should had just followed my beautiful read on the Dortmund game (but it's always a fking pain to bet unders in budesliga)Comment -
adamlk1231SBR Rookie
- 08-17-13
- 31
#498
I use a little bit stat skills to predit e.g standard deviation, correlation of variation
brothers, do u have any comment on how to predict result?Comment -
adamlk1231SBR Rookie
- 08-17-13
- 31
#499blacklist team of this year
paris saint germain
Monaco
fc bayern munich
dortmund fcComment -
EasyPicksSBR MVP
- 10-21-11
- 3804
#500um... don't u think poisson distribution is not a well method to predict result? (perhaps i dont know too much how to well use poisson..)
I use a little bit stat skills to predit e.g standard deviation, correlation of variation
brothers, do u have any comment on how to predict result?
for me statistical data and current performanceComment -
EasyPicksSBR MVP
- 10-21-11
- 3804
#503SATURDAY:
let's talk about this one: Valenciennes x Marseille
the TOTAL GOALS line is set at 2,2.5 @2.1
H2H
30.09.12 LIG Valenciennes Marseille 4 : 1 24.09.11 LIG Valenciennes Marseille 1 : 1 14.08.10 LIG Valenciennes Marseille 3 : 2 26.09.09 LIG Valenciennes Marseille 3 : 2 19.10.08 LIG Valenciennes Marseille 1 : 3 15.08.07 LIG Valenciennes Marseille 2 : 1 14.04.07 LIG Valenciennes Marseille 0 : 0
1 game (in '07) below the 2 goals mark. Both teams with an average of almost 3 goals per game this season...wtf am I'm missing here? Why so high the odd?Comment -
EasyPicksSBR MVP
- 10-21-11
- 3804
#504Bet 147# 4 Team Parlay @17.78 [4u]
Selecções 1 Mais de 2.0 Valenciennes v Marselha
(Golos +/- Mais Opções)24/08/2013 Nenhum 1.70 Ainda por Acontecer 2 Empate Olhanense v Paços de Ferreira
(Resultado Final)24/08/2013 Nenhum 3.20 Ainda por Acontecer 3 Sporting Académica v Sporting
(Resultado Final)24/08/2013 Nenhum 1.90 Ainda por Acontecer 4 Rio Ave Rio Ave v Vitória de Setúbal
(Resultado Final)25/08/2013 Nenhum 1.72 Ainda por Acontecer Comment -
EasyPicksSBR MVP
- 10-21-11
- 3804
#505what I like for the weekend so far:
PORTUGAL:
- FC Porto
- Rio Ave
- Sporting
- Leixoes (2nd div)
- Feirense (2nd div)
SPAIN:
- Valencia
ENGLAND:
- Liverpool
- City
FRANCE:
- Lyon
- Montpellier
what do you guys have?Comment -
adamlk1231SBR Rookie
- 08-17-13
- 31
#507Bet 147# 4 Team Parlay @17.78 [4u]
Selecções 1 Mais de 2.0 Valenciennes v Marselha
(Golos +/- Mais Opções)24/08/2013 Nenhum 1.70 Ainda por Acontecer 2 Empate Olhanense v Paços de Ferreira
(Resultado Final)24/08/2013 Nenhum 3.20 Ainda por Acontecer 3 Sporting Académica v Sporting
(Resultado Final)24/08/2013 Nenhum 1.90 Ainda por Acontecer 4 Rio Ave Rio Ave v Vitória de Setúbal
(Resultado Final)25/08/2013 Nenhum 1.72 Ainda por Acontecer
dont understand
can u translate into english? thxComment -
EasyPicksSBR MVP
- 10-21-11
- 3804
#509Bet 148# Arsenal HT pk, -0.5@ 2.00 [3.5u]Comment -
adamlk1231SBR Rookie
- 08-17-13
- 31
#510how about arsenal ?
i suppose arsenal win lolComment -
EasyPicksSBR MVP
- 10-21-11
- 3804
#512Luckly u didn't bet
I love these type of bet adam...everyone (most of the ppl at least) were laying Arsenal on this game. Bad read on team momentum.
At last (since the big parlay payday) a good start of the day
Arsenal cashing the Halftime ticketComment -
EasyPicksSBR MVP
- 10-21-11
- 3804
#513Bet 147# 4 Team Parlay @17.78 [4u] LOSSSelecções 1 Mais de 2.0 Valenciennes v Marselha
(Golos +/- Mais Opções)24/08/2013 Nenhum 1.70 Ainda por Acontecer 2 Empate Olhanense v Paços de Ferreira
(Resultado Final)24/08/2013 Nenhum 3.20 Ainda por Acontecer 3 Sporting Académica v Sporting
(Resultado Final)24/08/2013 Nenhum 1.90 Ainda por Acontecer 4 Rio Ave Rio Ave v Vitória de Setúbal
(Resultado Final)25/08/2013 Nenhum 1.72 Ainda por Acontecer Comment -
adamlk1231SBR Rookie
- 08-17-13
- 31
#514今晚屈福特Comment -
adamlk1231SBR Rookie
- 08-17-13
- 31
#515Watford[0/-0.5] vs Nottingham Forest[0/+0.5]
@WATFORD 1.8Comment -
EasyPicksSBR MVP
- 10-21-11
- 3804
#516gl adamComment -
EasyPicksSBR MVP
- 10-21-11
- 3804
#518PORTUGAL LIGA 2
Bet 149# Moreirense @2.15 [3u]
This team is in top form. 11 goals scored in 3 games and just 1 allowed! I'm gonna ride this streak with them!Comment -
EasyPicksSBR MVP
- 10-21-11
- 3804
#520PORTUGAL LIGA 1
Bet 149# FC Porto x Maritimo: Correct Score 3-0 @6.50 & 3-1@11.00 [1.25u each; 2.5u total bet]
Bet 150# FC Porto x Maritimo: Josue to score at anytime @2.75 [2u]
Bet 151# Nacional x Guimaraes: DRAW @3.51 [2u]
Bet 152# Rio Ave x Setubal: DRAW @3.68 [2u]
Bet 153# Arouca x Estoril: DRAW @3.29 [2u]Comment -
EasyPicksSBR MVP
- 10-21-11
- 3804
#522Bet 154# 3 Team Parlay @2.72 [7u]
1 Barcelona Málaga v Barcelona
(Resultado Final)25/08/2013 Nenhum 1.30 Ainda por Acontecer 2 Real Bétis Real Bétis v Celta de Vigo
(Resultado Final)25/08/2013 Nenhum 1.80 Ainda por Acontecer 3 FC Porto FC Porto v Marítimo
(Resultado Final)25/08/2013 Nenhum 1.16 Ainda por Acontecer Comment -
EasyPicksSBR MVP
- 10-21-11
- 3804
#523BIG PLAY ALERT ---- BARCELONA WITHOUT MESSI FOR THE SWEEP!!
Bet 155# Malaga x Barcelona: Barcelona -1.5 @2.00 [15u]Comment -
EasyPicksSBR MVP
- 10-21-11
- 3804
#525
I imagine that the odds must be plain awful, right?
Cant yoi go next door to Macau and make the bets?Comment
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