New Method more Money - Football aka Soccer

[onemoregoal]

Odds arent necessary what the book expects to happen. Its what the book expects the public to be betting on.....

[EasyPicks]

Odds arent necessary what the book expects to happen. Its what the book expects the public to be betting on.....

You are totally wrong! Odds are set by mathematical reasons only. They will change a little bcs of balancing the book and/ or some major upset happens to a teams lineup or something like that!

See poisson distribution for football.

Cheers.

Gl tonight

[EasyPicks]

FRIDAY ACTION

Bet 146# Monaco HT @1 90 [4u]

[onemoregoal]

How am I wrong then? I said odds arent necessary always what the book expects to happen. They take into consideration especially for big games that a lot of money will be on the big names.....

"In addition to the chances of a team winning, they have to account for the money that is likely to be placed. In the Manchester United example, most people would back the Red Devils to to win at Old Trafford and therefore the odds will be shorter than perhaps the precise chances of victory. "
http://www.goal.com/en/news/3049/ask...g-odds-created

[EasyPicks]

Well my brother in law is a trader at a mjor UK bookie and he says the ezample that you just gave works after the lines are set! The first lines for each specific match will be found only based on mathematical grounds (historical data will obviously....

Fkk it. Enough with this discussion

[EasyPicks]

Damn Monaco. Falcao whats out already...ohh boy. Should had just followed my beautiful read on the Dortmund game (but it's always a fking pain to bet unders in budesliga)

[adamlk1231]

Damn Monaco. Falcao whats out already...ohh boy. Should had just followed my beautiful read on the Dortmund game (but it's always a fking pain to bet unders in budesliga)

actually i blacklist monaco already lol

[adamlk1231]

You are totally wrong! Odds are set by mathematical reasons only. They will change a little bcs of balancing the book and/ or some major upset happens to a teams lineup or something like that!

See poisson distribution for football.

Cheers.

Gl tonight

um... don't u think poisson distribution is not a well method to predict result? (perhaps i dont know too much how to well use poisson..)

I use a little bit stat skills to predit e.g standard deviation, correlation of variation

brothers, do u have any comment on how to predict result?

[adamlk1231]

blacklist team of this year

paris saint germain

Monaco

fc bayern munich

dortmund fc

[EasyPicks]

um... don't u think poisson distribution is not a well method to predict result? (perhaps i dont know too much how to well use poisson..)

I use a little bit stat skills to predit e.g standard deviation, correlation of variation

brothers, do u have any comment on how to predict result?

for me statistical data and current performance

[EasyPicks]

blacklist team of this year

paris saint germain

Monaco

fc bayern munich

dortmund fc

100% agree. But there's money to be made with them...at least against them

[EasyPicks]

FRIDAY ACTION

Bet 146# Monaco HT @1 90 [4u] LOSS

0-1 -4u

[EasyPicks]

SATURDAY:

let's talk about this one: Valenciennes x Marseille

the TOTAL GOALS line is set at 2,2.5 @2.1

H2H

30.09.12	LIG	Valenciennes	Marseille	4 : 1
24.09.11	LIG	Valenciennes	Marseille	1 : 1
14.08.10	LIG	Valenciennes	Marseille	3 : 2
26.09.09	LIG	Valenciennes	Marseille	3 : 2
19.10.08	LIG	Valenciennes	Marseille	1 : 3
15.08.07	LIG	Valenciennes	Marseille	2 : 1
14.04.07	LIG	Valenciennes	Marseille	0 : 0

1 game (in '07) below the 2 goals mark. Both teams with an average of almost 3 goals per game this season...wtf am I'm missing here? Why so high the odd?

[EasyPicks]

Bet 147# 4 Team Parlay @17.78 [4u]

Selecções

1 Mais de 2.0 Valenciennes v Marselha (Golos +/- Mais Opções) 24/08/2013 Nenhum 1.70 Ainda por Acontecer 2 Empate Olhanense v Paços de Ferreira (Resultado Final) 24/08/2013 Nenhum 3.20 Ainda por Acontecer 3 Sporting Académica v Sporting (Resultado Final) 24/08/2013 Nenhum 1.90 Ainda por Acontecer 4 Rio Ave Rio Ave v Vitória de Setúbal (Resultado Final) 25/08/2013 Nenhum 1.72 Ainda por Acontecer

[EasyPicks]

what I like for the weekend so far:

PORTUGAL:
- FC Porto
- Rio Ave
- Sporting
- Leixoes (2nd div)
- Feirense (2nd div)

SPAIN:
- Valencia

ENGLAND:
- Liverpool
- City

FRANCE:
- Lyon
- Montpellier


what do you guys have?

[adamlk1231]

100% agree. But there's money to be made with them...at least against them

win little money but lose all

not worth

[adamlk1231]

Bet 147# 4 Team Parlay @17.78 [4u]

Selecções

1 Mais de 2.0 Valenciennes v Marselha (Golos +/- Mais Opções) 24/08/2013 Nenhum 1.70 Ainda por Acontecer 2 Empate Olhanense v Paços de Ferreira (Resultado Final) 24/08/2013 Nenhum 3.20 Ainda por Acontecer 3 Sporting Académica v Sporting (Resultado Final) 24/08/2013 Nenhum 1.90 Ainda por Acontecer 4 Rio Ave Rio Ave v Vitória de Setúbal (Resultado Final) 25/08/2013 Nenhum 1.72 Ainda por Acontecer

dont understand

can u translate into english? thx

[EasyPicks]

dont understand

can u translate into english? thx

yep no prob.

the only thing you need to know is

Mais de 2.0 => Over 2 Goals
Empate => Draw


the team names are the same with the exception of Marselha => Marseille

[EasyPicks]

Bet 148# Arsenal HT pk, -0.5@ 2.00 [3.5u]

[adamlk1231]

how about arsenal ?

i suppose arsenal win lol

[adamlk1231]

Bet 148# Arsenal HT pk, -0.5@ 2.00 [3.5u]

i would bet fulham (+0.5/+1) @1.76

[EasyPicks]

i would bet fulham (+0.5/+1) @1.76

Luckly u didn't bet

I love these type of bet adam...everyone (most of the ppl at least) were laying Arsenal on this game. Bad read on team momentum.

At last (since the big parlay payday) a good start of the day

Arsenal cashing the Halftime ticket

[EasyPicks]

Bet 147# 4 Team Parlay @17.78 [4u] LOSS

Selecções

1 Mais de 2.0 Valenciennes v Marselha (Golos +/- Mais Opções) 24/08/2013 Nenhum 1.70 Ainda por Acontecer 2 Empate Olhanense v Paços de Ferreira (Resultado Final) 24/08/2013 Nenhum 3.20 Ainda por Acontecer 3 Sporting Académica v Sporting (Resultado Final) 24/08/2013 Nenhum 1.90 Ainda por Acontecer 4 Rio Ave Rio Ave v Vitória de Setúbal (Resultado Final) 25/08/2013 Nenhum 1.72 Ainda por Acontecer

Bet 148# Arsenal HT pk, -0.5@ 2.00 [3.5u] WIN

1-1 -0.5u

[adamlk1231]

今晚屈福特

[adamlk1231]

Watford[0/-0.5] vs Nottingham Forest[0/+0.5]

@WATFORD 1.8

[EasyPicks]

gl adam

[adamlk1231]

gl adam

any bet tonight?

[EasyPicks]

PORTUGAL LIGA 2

Bet 149# Moreirense @2.15 [3u]

This team is in top form. 11 goals scored in 3 games and just 1 allowed! I'm gonna ride this streak with them!

[adamlk1231]

PORTUGAL LIGA 2

Bet 149# Moreirense @2.15 [3u]

This team is in top form. 11 goals scored in 3 games and just 1 allowed! I'm gonna ride this streak with them!

can't bet PORTUGAL LIGA 2 match in my country LOL

[EasyPicks]

PORTUGAL LIGA 1

Bet 149# FC Porto x Maritimo: Correct Score 3-0 @6.50 & 3-1@11.00 [1.25u each; 2.5u total bet]

Bet 150# FC Porto x Maritimo: Josue to score at anytime @2.75 [2u]

Bet 151# Nacional x Guimaraes: DRAW @3.51 [2u]

Bet 152# Rio Ave x Setubal: DRAW @3.68 [2u]

Bet 153# Arouca x Estoril: DRAW @3.29 [2u]

[EasyPicks]

can't bet PORTUGAL LIGA 2 match in my country LOL

why?
all books offer that

[EasyPicks]

Bet 154# 3 Team Parlay @2.72 [7u]

1	Barcelona	Málaga v Barcelona (Resultado Final)	25/08/2013	Nenhum	1.30	Ainda por Acontecer
2	Real Bétis	Real Bétis v Celta de Vigo (Resultado Final)	25/08/2013	Nenhum	1.80	Ainda por Acontecer
3	FC Porto	FC Porto v Marítimo (Resultado Final)	25/08/2013	Nenhum	1.16	Ainda por Acontecer

[EasyPicks]

BIG PLAY ALERT ---- BARCELONA WITHOUT MESSI FOR THE SWEEP!!

Bet 155# Malaga x Barcelona: Barcelona -1.5 @2.00 [15u]

[adamlk1231]

why?
all books offer that

it is illegal to bet oversea betting company in Hong Kong

only one betting company in Hong Kong actually

[EasyPicks]

it is illegal to bet oversea betting company in Hong Kong

only one betting company in Hong Kong actually

Wtf....nice to be in the monopoly of the betting industry there

I imagine that the odds must be plain awful, right?

Cant yoi go next door to Macau and make the bets?