New Method more Money - Football aka Soccer

[EasyPicks]

Well I've been tracking my football (soccer - for my US friends) picks since the start of the year and I've decided to give it a try in my new and disciplined betting method. My bank is 100 units and one unit = 20€; so nothing really special and risky but probably with a lot of effort and a little luck I'll be able to reach 10K by the start of next year World Cup in Brazil (July 2014).

I will always limit my self to 1 or 2 plays per day! The football season is near the end (3rd week of May) but I don't think I need to wait for next season to put my method in practice.

I use pinnacle, Betfair and Bet365. [If anyone else knows for a better book regarding soccer lines pls tell, thx]

[EasyPicks]

INITIAL BANK 100u

Bet 1# Portuguese Liga - Braga vs Academica: Braga -1,-1.5 @1.98 [to win 2u]*

For those that don't follow Portuguese football, Braga left the status of rising star and for the past 3 years is the 3rd strongest team in the league, always reaching the UEFA Champions League spots.

This year they are in 4th place three points behind of Paços de Ferreira, one of the biggest surprises in the European national leagues. Portugal is 4th/5th in the UEFA ranking so they put 2 clubs directly in the Champions and one in the playoffs. The Champions money for the past couple of years have helped a lot Braga to grow and they will try really hard to be there again next season.

Academica needs to win or at least to draw to get some relief from the relegation spots (they have the same points that the top seed relegation spot, 21 points). They will be playing under a new manager (Sergio Conceiçao). But I've seen some of these guys games and they deserve to get demoted, they play like sh*t...they really do!

Braga coming of from a major win in the past weekend against FC Porto, winning for the first time the League Cup.

[EasyPicks]

Bet Accepted
Ticket Number -

Your new available balance is EUR.

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Straight Bet
Selection 1:	Portugal - Primeira Liga, Soccer
	Sporting Braga 19-April-2013 11:59 AM PST
	Handicap -1 and -1.5 for Game -101
	Risking 20.20 to Win 20.00 EUR

[EasyPicks]

Bet 2# Portuguese Liga - Braga vs Academica: Braga HT @-106 [to win 1.5u]

Bet Accepted
Ticket Number -

Your new available balance is EUR.

---

Straight Bet
Selection 1:	Portugal - Primeira Liga 1st Halfs, Soccer
	Sporting Braga 19-April-2013 11:59 AM PST
	1H Handicap -0.5 for 1st Half -106
	Risking 31.80 to Win 30.00 EUR

[Jaszaafca]

Braga difficulties to score last months, watched them some games and they missed so many 10000% chances its unreal..

But at home against Academica they should win easy.

GL

[Vaughany]

Braga difficulties to score last months, watched them some games and they missed so many 10000% chances its unreal..

But at home against Academica they should win easy.

GL

because Eder has been injured

[EasyPicks]

Braga difficulties to score last months, watched them some games and they missed so many 10000% chances its unreal..

But at home against Academica they should win easy.

GL

You're rigjt about that...but unless Academica totally surprises me and put a heck of a performance I'm not seeing Braga enter this game with nothing else but desire to win and to score early

[EasyPicks]

* just added one more unit to Bet 1#

[EasyPicks]

Goal at the 42' ))))

Bet 2# is a WIN

[kosti]

Thanks for the 1st half pick. I was sweating a little but worked out. Now hoping for another to hit the 1.25

[EasyPicks]

Thanks for the 1st half pick. I was sweating a little but worked out. Now hoping for another to hit the 1.25

Braga is fking us...they are happy with the win by 1-0

[kosti]

Still slightly up. Looking forward to see what you have tomorrow.

[EasyPicks]

Yesterday's RECAP

Bet 1# 1/2 LOSS -1.01u
Bet 2# WIN +1.5u

Almost a good night....

BANK 100.49u

[EasyPicks]

Bet 3# Russia Premier - M.Saransk vs V.Novgorod: V.Novgorod pk, +0.5 @1.99 [to win 1u]

game starts in 80 minutes.

update: M.Saransk is doomed to relegation while V.Novgorod is in the top spot of playoff relegation zone. My statistical model gives 70% chances of this match end in a draw or away win, so at almost even odds I'll take the team that still has something to fight for and also safeguard myself with the draw.

[EasyPicks]

Pending Bets
TICKET	ACCEPTED	EVENT DATE	TYPE	DESCRIPTION		RISKING	TO WIN	BET STATUS
300953409-1 1	1:05am 20-Apr-13	2:29am 20-Apr-13	Soccer Handicap	Mordovia Saransk vs Volga Nizhny Novgorod (0 and +0.5) for Game.	-101	20.20	20.00	Pending

[EasyPicks]

Cash that ticket ))

A little scary but perfect. 1-3 final score

[Pan43]

Awesome job pal, keep it up .. Wish i saw bet #3 earlier and tail hope u got something more for today. BOL to your picks!

[EasyPicks]

Awesome job pal, keep it up .. Wish i saw bet #3 earlier and tail hope u got something more for today. BOL to your picks!

Thx Pan!

I'll be posting in a few minutes my second bet [Italy serie B]

[kosti]

Missed the Russian game, just woke up. Great job though

[EasyPicks]

Bet 4# Italy serie B - Novara vs Modena: Over 2.5 @1.943 [to win 1.5u]

[Stallion]

I have over 2 -190, no thanks.

[BrianKay]

Not looking good...what's Bet #5?

[EasyPicks]

This one is toasted...

I'll probably have a play for tonight...

[Pan43]

So many overs in Serie B and we caught up on this one . More luck on next one!

[EasyPicks]

So many overs in Serie B and we caught up on this one . More luck on next one!

Statistically was the best Over (in theory) to hsppen in the series B today (65% for over vs 35% for under) and with the last 4 Novara games all over 3.5 goals I was really confident on this one...

[EasyPicks]

Bet 5# Portuguese Liga - Moreirense vs FC Porto: FC Porto -1.5 @1.746 [to win 1.50u]

This seems like a no brainer to me. I don't mind to pay a little juice to bet just the -1.5 instead of -1.75, simply bcs Porto is one of those teams that if it feels the game is done by the 2-0 mark they will stop and just pass the ball around. Moreirense has little chances of hanging on in the first division. ..and it wont be against Porto (that really needs the points to stay close to Benfica) that they will get some points.

[EasyPicks]

Porto already up by one at ht. Moreirense is defending well and had a clear chance of goal, but porto is dominating the entire game...

Lets go Porto just one more...

[EasyPicks]

55" 3-0

Walk in the park

[EasyPicks]

Today's RECAP

Bet3# WIN +1.00u
Bet 4# LOSS -1.59u
Bet 5# WIN +1.50u

BANK 101.40u
3W - 2L

[EasyPicks]

BIG PLAY

Bet 6# Premier League - Liverpool vs Chelsea: Over 2.5 @1.769 [ to win 5u]

I wont be home today so I'll be posting by the phone. My model has this game hitting over 80% of the time. In my mind it is a risky bet but this is a really strong signal by the model so I'll take it medium_big!

I would be also tempted to take chelsea for the win if Benitez wasn't returning home....

Gl all and have a nice sunday.

P.S. the late play will be in the big Portuguese derby (Benfica x Sporting)

[EasyPicks]

BIG PLAY

Bet 6# Premier League - Liverpool vs Chelsea: Over 2.5 @1.769 [ to win 5u] WIN

Final Score 2-2, must have been a very good game to watch!
Big play cashes +5 UNITS!!!

Hope that the last ticket of the day also wins for an amazing Sunday:

Bet 7# Portuguese Liga - Benfica vs Sporting: Over 2.5 @1.704 [ to win 5u]

[EasyPicks]

Big game (derby, the two biggest city rivals) in the Portuguese League, maybe a championship game for Benfica if they win (they will keep the 4 points advantage from Porto) and a game that could help to "clean" the awful season of Sporting (newspapers say the worst season in the club history; 8th place 34 points behind league leader).

87% of probability that this game goes over 2.5 goals and 76% that goes over 3.5, so betting medium large also on this one since the model didn't let me down today for similar statistical result.

Gl all that will ride this pick with me

[EasyPicks]

last bet today

Bet 8# Portuguese Liga - Benfica vs Sporting: Benfica -1, -1.5 @1.893 [ to win 4u]

[EasyPicks]

Pending Bets
TICKET	ACCEPTED	EVENT DATE	TYPE	DESCRIPTION		RISKING	TO WIN	BET STATUS
301325709-1 1	10:10am 21-Apr-13	10:00am 21-Apr-13	Basketball Total Points	Atlanta Hawks/Indiana Pacers (O 185.5) for Game.	2.000	20.00	20.00	Pending
301331091-1 2	10:27am 21-Apr-13	12:14pm 21-Apr-13	Soccer Total	Benfica/Sporting Lisbon (O 2.5) for Game.	1.704	142.05	100.00	Pending
301332443-1 3	10:38am 21-Apr-13	12:14pm 21-Apr-13	Soccer Handicap	Benfica (-1 and -1.5) vs Sporting Lisbon for Game.	1.893	89.59	80.00	Pending

[EasyPicks]

never mind the nba bet (not for thread purpose)