Odds arent necessary what the book expects to happen. Its what the book expects the public to be betting on.....
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You are totally wrong! Odds are set by mathematical reasons only. They will change a little bcs of balancing the book and/ or some major upset happens to a teams lineup or something like that!Originally posted by onemoregoal
See poisson distribution for football.
Cheers.
Gl tonightComment -
FRIDAY ACTION
Bet 146# Monaco HT @1 90 [4u]Comment -
How am I wrong then? I said odds arent necessary always what the book expects to happen. They take into consideration especially for big games that a lot of money will be on the big names.....
"In addition to the chances of a team winning, they have to account for the money that is likely to be placed. In the Manchester United example, most people would back the Red Devils to to win at Old Trafford and therefore the odds will be shorter than perhaps the precise chances of victory. "
http://www.goal.com/en/news/3049/ask...g-odds-createdComment -
Well my brother in law is a trader at a mjor UK bookie and he says the ezample that you just gave works after the lines are set! The first lines for each specific match will be found only based on mathematical grounds (historical data will obviously....
Fkk it. Enough with this discussionComment -
Damn Monaco. Falcao whats out already...ohh boy. Should had just followed my beautiful read on the Dortmund game (but it's always a fking pain to bet unders in budesliga)Comment -
actually i blacklist monaco already lolOriginally posted by EasyPicksComment -
um... don't u think poisson distribution is not a well method to predict result? (perhaps i dont know too much how to well use poisson..)Originally posted by EasyPicks
I use a little bit stat skills to predit e.g standard deviation, correlation of variation
brothers, do u have any comment on how to predict result?Comment -
blacklist team of this year
paris saint germain
Monaco
fc bayern munich
dortmund fcComment -
Originally posted by adamlk1231
for me statistical data and current performanceComment -
Originally posted by adamlk1231
100% agree. But there's money to be made with them...at least against them
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0-1 -4uOriginally posted by EasyPicksComment -
SATURDAY:
let's talk about this one: Valenciennes x Marseille
the TOTAL GOALS line is set at 2,2.5 @2.1
H2H
30.09.12 LIG Valenciennes Marseille 4 : 1 24.09.11 LIG Valenciennes Marseille 1 : 1 14.08.10 LIG Valenciennes Marseille 3 : 2 26.09.09 LIG Valenciennes Marseille 3 : 2 19.10.08 LIG Valenciennes Marseille 1 : 3 15.08.07 LIG Valenciennes Marseille 2 : 1 14.04.07 LIG Valenciennes Marseille 0 : 0
1 game (in '07) below the 2 goals mark. Both teams with an average of almost 3 goals per game this season...wtf am I'm missing here? Why so high the odd?Comment -
Bet 147# 4 Team Parlay @17.78 [4u]
Selecções 1 Mais de 2.0 Valenciennes v Marselha
(Golos +/- Mais Opções)24/08/2013 Nenhum 1.70 Ainda por Acontecer 2 Empate Olhanense v Paços de Ferreira
(Resultado Final)24/08/2013 Nenhum 3.20 Ainda por Acontecer 3 Sporting Académica v Sporting
(Resultado Final)24/08/2013 Nenhum 1.90 Ainda por Acontecer 4 Rio Ave Rio Ave v Vitória de Setúbal
(Resultado Final)25/08/2013 Nenhum 1.72 Ainda por Acontecer Comment -
what I like for the weekend so far:
PORTUGAL:
- FC Porto
- Rio Ave
- Sporting
- Leixoes (2nd div)
- Feirense (2nd div)
SPAIN:
- Valencia
ENGLAND:
- Liverpool
- City
FRANCE:
- Lyon
- Montpellier
what do you guys have?Comment -
win little money but lose allOriginally posted by EasyPicks100% agree. But there's money to be made with them...at least against them
not worthComment -
Originally posted by EasyPicks
dont understand
can u translate into english? thxComment -
yep no prob.Originally posted by adamlk1231
the only thing you need to know is
Mais de 2.0 => Over 2 Goals
Empate => Draw
the team names are the same with the exception of Marselha => MarseilleComment -
Bet 148# Arsenal HT pk, -0.5@ 2.00 [3.5u]Comment -
how about arsenal ?
i suppose arsenal win lolComment -
i would bet fulham (+0.5/+1) @1.76Originally posted by EasyPicksComment -
Luckly u didn't betOriginally posted by adamlk1231
I love these type of bet adam...everyone (most of the ppl at least) were laying Arsenal on this game. Bad read on team momentum.
At last (since the big parlay payday) a good start of the day
Arsenal cashing the Halftime ticket
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Originally posted by EasyPicks1-1 -0.5uOriginally posted by EasyPicksComment -
今晚屈福特Comment -
Watford[0/-0.5] vs Nottingham Forest[0/+0.5]
@WATFORD 1.8
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gl adamComment -
any bet tonight?Originally posted by EasyPicksComment -
PORTUGAL LIGA 2
Bet 149# Moreirense @2.15 [3u]
This team is in top form. 11 goals scored in 3 games and just 1 allowed! I'm gonna ride this streak with them!Comment -
can't bet PORTUGAL LIGA 2 match in my country LOLOriginally posted by EasyPicksComment -
PORTUGAL LIGA 1
Bet 149# FC Porto x Maritimo: Correct Score 3-0 @6.50 & 3-1@11.00 [1.25u each; 2.5u total bet]
Bet 150# FC Porto x Maritimo: Josue to score at anytime @2.75 [2u]
Bet 151# Nacional x Guimaraes: DRAW @3.51 [2u]
Bet 152# Rio Ave x Setubal: DRAW @3.68 [2u]
Bet 153# Arouca x Estoril: DRAW @3.29 [2u]Comment -
Originally posted by adamlk1231
why?
all books offer thatComment -
Bet 154# 3 Team Parlay @2.72 [7u]
1 Barcelona Málaga v Barcelona
(Resultado Final)25/08/2013 Nenhum 1.30 Ainda por Acontecer 2 Real Bétis Real Bétis v Celta de Vigo
(Resultado Final)25/08/2013 Nenhum 1.80 Ainda por Acontecer 3 FC Porto FC Porto v Marítimo
(Resultado Final)25/08/2013 Nenhum 1.16 Ainda por Acontecer Comment -
BIG PLAY ALERT ---- BARCELONA WITHOUT MESSI FOR THE SWEEP!!
Bet 155# Malaga x Barcelona: Barcelona -1.5 @2.00 [15u]Comment -
it is illegal to bet oversea betting company in Hong KongOriginally posted by EasyPicks
only one betting company in Hong Kong actuallyComment -
Wtf....nice to be in the monopoly of the betting industry thereOriginally posted by adamlk1231it is illegal to bet oversea betting company in Hong Kong
only one betting company in Hong Kong actually
I imagine that the odds must be plain awful, right?
Cant yoi go next door to Macau and make the bets?Comment
