North America will be the epicenter within 7 days

[d2bets]

Look what's going on at O'Hare. Many of these people coming back will spread this.

I hope they are all going into isolation. I live near there. Ugh.

Hey man, I've got some friends and family that still don't get it. What do I tell them? I'm serious.

[lakerboy]

I hope they are all going into isolation. I live near there. Ugh.

Hey man, I've got some friends and family that still don't get it. What do I tell them? I'm serious.

It's unreal how people don't understand that you can spread it. That is awful for older people that you can spread it to.

[JohnGalt2341]

Of course it depends where it hits, but he mortality rate is not 3% overall in a general population. The only reason some think that is because the denominator is underestimated. Put it this way, if every single citizen in the country got it, the mortality rate would probably be between 0.5% to 1.0%. Of course, that's about 2 to 4 million deaths. 80-90% of those would be among those 70+.

If we successfully segregate off the vulnerable, the ultimate death rate could actually be way lower. So understand, these numbers and percentages are not predetermined, but are based on response also.

This is not aimed at you personally, but it's staggering how most people don't understand math, statistics and logic.

Even on a Sportsbetting forum I feel many on here don't understand simple numbers like Odds/Lines. The general population is almost certainly even worse at these things. This is why fools play the Lottery that has 50% juice. They don't understand simple math. Or they do and they ignore it anyway.

If 2 people become contagious for every 1 person that is cured... it's still going to spread like wildfire.

Ask your average person if they would rather have 100K OR, they could receive a .01 cent on day 1 and that amount will double every day for an entire month... what do you think most people would take?

[Pareto]

@d2bets

You wrote this just 5 days ago:

I'd bet that the US death toll by the end of 2020 will be less than 5,000, maybe less than 1,000. And of course most will be elderly and/or sick persons.

You sound a bit more pessimistic now.

[hostile takeover]

Anyone can get on twitter, claim they spoke with a 'health official', and start a rumor there will be millions more infected to help stoke the panic.

[hostile takeover]

There are plenty of people out there who take pleasure in creating fear.

There are many who are making bank on those in panic.

[Yulia74]

A TIMELINE OF WHAT ITALY DID

D0 - 21 Feb - 20 cases - notice the outbreak

D2 - 23 Feb - 150 cases - Closed schools, 11 cities in quarantine

D10 - 1 Mar - 1700 cases - First hospitals saturated - 1700 cases

D11 - 2 Mar - 2040 cases – 10% of Lombardy doctors are sick or in isolation

D17 - 8 Mar - 7400 cases - Lombardy + 14 provinces in lockdown, 12M people affected, first reports of patients who cannot get care, jail riots

D19 - 10 Mar - 10150 cases - All Italy in lockdown

D21 - 12 Mar - 15000 cases - Most retail shops closed in all of Italy, enforced isolation, army given police powers.

[d2bets]

@d2bets

You wrote this just 5 days ago:

I'd bet that the US death toll by the end of 2020 will be less than 5,000, maybe less than 1,000. And of course most will be elderly and/or sick persons.

You sound a bit more pessimistic now.

I am, although that's still possible. I thought appropriate steps would have been taken sooner.

[jjgold]

NJ schools all ordered to close

[thetrinity]

I said 2-3 million in America die, and I still think that’s accurate. What needs to be taken into account are the other deaths that will happen because medical offices will be overrun. Stay isolated and only go out when necessary

[jjgold]

Laker might make a great call

[Booya711]

Laker might make a great call

Not a great call That we want

[Biff41]

In a regular flu season in the U.S you can have 20,000 people die of flu related symptoms. We have around 60 deaths right now and my guess is it will not go over 200. After all the paranoia Corona will likely be a footnote to a flu season.

[cyclingbettor]

Hey man, I've got some friends and family that still don't get it. What do I tell them? I'm serious.

Show them a chart that illustrates the number of cases over time:



Explain to them that, if the line doesn't flatten out soon, it gets ugly.

If they don't get it at that point, I don't imagine they ever will.

[cyclingbettor]

And, like other people have mentioned, it's not just the total numbers, it's the time period in which it occurs. If lots of people all get it in a short period of time, the medical system gets swamped, and that gets ugly as well.

[icon]

I am prepared.

[Tanko]

In a regular flu season in the U.S you can have 20,000 people die of flu related symptoms. We have around 60 deaths right now and my guess is it will not go over 200. After all the paranoia Corona will likely be a footnote to a flu season.

We have an ongoing example of how this may playout in the US by looking at Italy.
They are SIMILAR in social norms to the US. Its not apples to apples comparison but it'll do.

Here is Italy's corona virus cases. As you can see they are worse off than USA. The US has about 3k cases. That's about equivalent to March 4th on the Italy timeline. So Italy is ~ 10 days ahead of us on the cornavirus curve.

Remember Italy implemented a coutrywide lockdown on March 9th.




Here are the deaths in Italy. On March 4th Italy had ~105 deaths. US is at 63. So US is a little better off than Italy but its close in comparitive nubmers.





Italy, 10 days ahead of us on the curve, now has 25k cases and 1800 deaths.

Assuming the US does not implement any measures to offset the spread until on or after March 19th (10 days after Italy implemented their lockdown) we will probably be on the same curve as Italy. I.e. near 2000 deaths and climbing by March 24th. And it could be worse if we wait to implement measures until after the 19th.

Unless we do something now, we are going to likely live the same curve as Italy, unfortunately.

[jjgold]

If we get like Italy I do not know what to say

[Booya711]

If we get like Italy I do not know what to say

We won’t even get close to Italy...NY maybe because all the dirty Euros that live and fly through there

[RedApples]

.
They are SIMILAR in social norms to the US. Its not apples to apples comparison but it'll do.
.

nice thesis moron

[sweethook]

this is bad news for jaw lovers . times will get real hard boys

[capitalist pig]

The CDC is gonna recommend to states to close inside dining and inside bar drinking among other things tomorrow morning when they release the new guidelines. Pence pretty much said that in news conference last hour. The question is for how long

later

[Tanko]

I could show the same comparitive charts for Spain and France. They are only 2 days ahead of the US on the coronavirus curve.

I hope we do not turn out as bad as Italy but can someone show data that indicates we aren't following the same curve and not just give BS comments that they disagree?

All of the data over the last 2 weeks indicates we are on the exactly same path as these other countries. Please explain, with data, how we'll turn out different without taking differing action to resolve the issue.

Hopefullly, some actions will be taken so we don't follow those curves.

[Biff41]

We have an ongoing example of how this may playout in the US by looking at Italy.
They are SIMILAR in social norms to the US. Its not apples to apples comparison but it'll do.

Here is Italy's corona virus cases. As you can see they are worse off than USA. The US has about 3k cases. That's about equivalent to March 4th on the Italy timeline. So Italy is ~ 10 days ahead of us on the cornavirus curve.

Remember Italy implemented a coutrywide lockdown on March 9th.




Here are the deaths in Italy. On March 4th Italy had ~105 deaths. US is at 63. So US is a little better off than Italy but its close in comparitive nubmers.





Italy, 10 days ahead of us on the curve, now has 25k cases and 1800 deaths.

Assuming the US does not implement any measures to offset the spread until on or after March 19th (10 days after Italy implemented their lockdown) we will probably be on the same curve as Italy. I.e. near 2000 deaths and climbing by March 24th. And it could be worse if we wait to implement measures until after the 19th.

Unless we do something now, we are going to likely live the same curve as Italy, unfortunately.

Italy had a large number of tourist and vacation residents from Southern China coming in right when the flu was spreading through Wuhan. North Italy has a large population of older folks and if you've seen Fellini movies, the older generation were heavy smokers.. A perfect storm for flu....not likely to repeat in U.S. The next few weekswill tell but I just am not seeing anything serious where I am in So. Calif aside from a bad flu season.
Hopefully the worst will be over by the end of March.

[Booya711]

Italy had a large number of tourist and vacation residents from Southern China coming in right when the flu was spreading through Wuhan. North Italy has a large population of older folks and if you've seen Fellini movies, the older generation were heavy smokers.. A perfect storm for flu....not likely to repeat in U.S. The next few weekswill tell but I just am not seeing anything serious where I am in So. Calif aside from a bad flu season.
Hopefully the worst will be over by the end of March.

That’s the problem with this site....common sense is lacking....you can’t compare one country to another on how this spreads

[lakerboy]

This is how it started in Italy.

https://www.barrietoday.com/amp/coronavirus-covid-19-local-news/italian-with-collingwood-family-warns-residents-to-stay-in-their-homes-2166246

[fried cheese]

I could show the same comparitive charts for Spain and France. They are only 2 days ahead of the US on the coronavirus curve.

I hope we do not turn out as bad as Italy but can someone show data that indicates we aren't following the same curve and not just give BS comments that they disagree?

All of the data over the last 2 weeks indicates we are on the exactly same path as these other countries. Please explain, with data, how we'll turn out different without taking differing action to resolve the issue.

Hopefullly, some actions will be taken so we don't follow those curves.

according to a study done by the international journal of infectious diseases (i have no idea how credible they are) on flu in italy they had over a .3% estimated death rate for the flu in the 4 year period of the study. so italians could be roughly 3x more likely to die than ppl in the usa. 68k deaths in the 4 years. 17k deaths per year is proportionate to over 90k deaths per year in the usa.

https://www.ijidonline.com/article/S1201-9712(19)30328-5/fulltext

[JohnGalt2341]

I said 2-3 million in America die, and I still think that’s accurate. What needs to be taken into account are the other deaths that will happen because medical offices will be overrun. Stay isolated and only go out when necessary

In a regular flu season in the U.S you can have 20,000 people die of flu related symptoms. We have around 60 deaths right now and my guess is it will not go over 200. After all the paranoia Corona will likely be a footnote to a flu season.

I'm guessing at least one of these guys will be wrong. If anyone will let me take the Over 200 I will bet anyone any amount that they want.

[PAULYPOKER]

I could show the same comparitive charts for Spain and France. They are only 2 days ahead of the US on the coronavirus curve.

I hope we do not turn out as bad as Italy but can someone show data that indicates we aren't following the same curve and not just give BS comments that they disagree?

All of the data over the last 2 weeks indicates we are on the exactly same path as these other countries. Please explain, with data, how we'll turn out different without taking differing action to resolve the issue.

Hopefullly, some actions will be taken so we don't follow those curves.

Data scientists have said that the epidemic in Italy is 10 days ahead of Spain,
Germany and France, and 13 to 16 days ahead of the UK and the US..........

[Thor4140]

In a regular flu season in the U.S you can have 20,000 people die of flu related symptoms. We have around 60 deaths right now and my guess is it will not go over 200. After all the paranoia Corona will likely be a footnote to a flu season.

I wish these kind of idiots would die off first

[flyingillini]

I'm guessing at least one of these guys will be wrong. If anyone will let me take the Over 200 I will bet anyone any amount that they want.

I would bet my life on over 200 deaths.

[Auto Donk]

Laker stay in isolation that’s the key

luckily for you, this will be no change or disruption to your daily life since Mayela was deported.....

[im over here now]

Stick to what you know best SBR posters.. Losing at gambling and life. Making up cash out stories like crusherr... And just being overall drain on society..

Italy In rough shape for 2 reasons only.. Italy 2nd oldest population on earth.. Average age of death in Italy because of virus... 81... All of those old fcks are dragging down the system... Hence the rumors of Italy starting to ration care...

This virus in America will be nothing.. 85-140k dead.. mostly elderly.. mostly already sick...

[d2bets]

Stick to what you know best SBR posters.. Losing at gambling and life. Making up cash out stories like crusherr... And just being overall drain on society..

Italy In rough shape for 2 reasons only.. Italy 2nd oldest population on earth.. Average age of death in Italy because of virus... 81... All of those old fcks are dragging down the system... Hence the rumors of Italy starting to ration care...

This virus in America will be nothing.. 85-140k dead.. mostly elderly.. mostly already sick...

I guess it depends on your definition of "nothing".

[Yulia74]

many international airports, so many sick passengers in the last 3-4 months

Congressional doctor predicts 70-150 million U.S. coronavirus cases https://www.axios.com/congressional-...b65c22c53.html