Fly Me #3 "The Resurrection" Sports Talk,Good Tunes,Great Times, Anything Goes

[turtledoves]

One of the benfits of sports betting is the activity of the brain. Others are better skills in time management, hitting deadlines, and practice in stabilty and lack of excessive emotionality.

Emotionality...



"Since it cost a lot to win, and even more to lose.
You and mean bound to spend some time,
Wondering what to choose"...

maybe the type of sports betting that you do, who knows what's going on in the minds of the average losing gambler

[turtledoves]

Are you sure that's even possible?

if it happens with other cannabinoids, why not? too many factors to tell what's what, hard to understand the entourage effect

[turtledoves]

[Fidel_CashFlow]

Absolutely amazing post , like all your others

[Fidel_CashFlow]

Wh1te B0y Fr0m Fr3nchL1cK

[Fidel_CashFlow]

He to mention the warmup jacket

[KVB]

The KVB NBA Contrarian Fund has picked up...

557

29-Feb

HOU -1 (-105)

I fukked up here and didn't post at the trigger and buy ogf Houston +1.

If it matters, we may have to adjust for trading purposes. If it doesn't matter, then I guess the closer comparison gets docked.

Fukl, my bad...

Fuk, now we have an issue as Houston won by one point. The trigger was at Houston +1 and this will could affect our trading and signals as a win became a tie.

May have to carry two sets of tracking now.

I really fukked up here.

[turtledoves]

last of equipment comes tomorrow.

[turtledoves]

Absolutely amazing post , like all your others

you'll always be my dog

[KVB]

last of equipment comes tomorrow.



controller and sensors. gonna run tubing from tank to oscillating fan. not sure if I need portable 2 hose a/c or if the LEDs are cool enough sealed. exhaust can trigger based on temps. dripper domes fit nice. we'll see how it leaks.

Bruh, that’s a lot of colorful dildos.

[KVB]

Ribbed, for her pleasure.

[turtledoves]

the kids will have fun with it

[grease lightnin]

I haven’t looked at this thread in 2 yrs and I come in to see a giant pack of dildos. Why am i not surprised?

[DiggityDaggityDo]

What's with the rainbow dildos?

[DiggityDaggityDo]

Let's get this thread back on track.

<iframe src='https://gfycat.com/ifr/LegitimateDefiantGreatdane' frameborder='0' scrolling='no' allowfullscreen width='640' height='844'></iframe>

[KVB]

I haven’t looked at this thread in 2 yrs and I come in to see a giant pack of dildos. Why am i not surprised?

[KVB]

Here's the KVB NBA Contrarian Fund after 107 plays with links to each play and a crude closing line comparison. The snapshot of the last summary is at the top with the subsequent plays and running numbers following...

				1 Unit	Closing	Beat	BTC
	Record	Date	NBA Contrarian Fund	per bet	Line	Closer?	Average
	48-58		Feb 28 Summary	-12.56		32-31-43	0.028302
557	48-58-1	29-Feb	HOU -1 (-105)	0	-1.5	Y	0.5
	48-58-1		Total	-12.56		33-31-43	0.03271

Houston will be tracked as the push that was posted but notice what a difference just one game can make.

The closing line comparison is on the rise, but would have risen more...



Here are the units, push with Houston or not, we may see some sideways action in the market...



But let's look closer at the technicals with the true Houston +1 on Feb 29th built in...



First, I want to point out just how difficult sports betting is even when you have a cash cow like the one I'm showing here. One simple miss can derail a lot of work.

Second, I want to point out the importance of the Houston game and the move all the way to -1.5 and even -2 in some places at this point in the markets.

Third, as we saw it end at Houston -1 readers are starting to get a glimpse of how they bring it in the context of what's being brought.

Finally, look closely at the pattern in the adjusted chart above, showing the true Hou +1 trigger. We are still in any one of the three patterns highlighted in the example below, with the NBA chart stretching it out just a bit; that mechanism with NBA is also something I've mentioned recently and plays out in the professional sports more often than not in a dragged out fashion...



All we can do now is patiently wait to see where we end up from here. As we close in on a signal expect to see this adjusted chart a few more times.

In 20 plays it won't matter about a push or cover for Houston as it will be out of our technical range. In the end the final SBR Contrarian Fund total tracking may be short a unit than than it's real performance, but if you remember there were enough mistakes pointed out pregame to put the MLB Contrarian Fund, which ended up more than +7 units, to actually be up more than 15 units...which was the reality of the MLB Fund.

"Push it through the door
Cuz in between the lines
I'm gonna pack more lines..."

[turtledoves]

I haven’t looked at this thread in 2 yrs and I come in to see a giant pack of dildos. Why am i not surprised?

I see a shipment of plastic Easter eggs, you see dildos. Why am i not surprised?

[KVB]

[KVB]

The KVB NBA Contrarian Fund has picked up...

574

1-Mar

NO +1.5 (-101)

Here we go!!

[KVB]

The KVB NCAAB Technical Value Fund will track NCAAB plays derived from a stacking percentages forecast that is enhanced by a few technical, statistical tweaks. The forecast with these adjustments, when compared to the market, give us another decent spread opportunity throughout the seasons.

This Fund will also be comprised of underdogs, exploiting some of the public thirst for favorites, but gets its plays mainly from focusing more on the weightings of a few specific areas. These areas include defensive stats like field goal %, forced turnovers per game, opponents free throws, etc, and combine them with things like pace to find those teams that are just better than the number indicates and control the game more than the betting market realizes...

Here's the KVB NCAAB Technical Value Fund through 57 plays with links to each play and a crude closing line comparison.

This Fund is 37-20, +14.86 units. I have added two columns to the tracking spreadsheet. I didn't post the forecasts so I can't rightfully show you average line error but we can do Action Points...a popular SBR contests tie breaker.

The action points are how much the bet covered or didn't cover the spread. If a team is +5 points and they lose by 7, the action points are -2. If they lose by 3, the action points are +2. If the +5 team wins outright by 2 points, then the action points are +7 points.

The final column is the result if the moneyline had been bet on each team instead of the spread. I used closing moneylines here and because the Fund is slightly ahead of the closer the +3.66 profit would have been slightly higher if the moneylines had been bought at the trigger times. Since this Fund triggers at the market open, I guess I should have used the moneyline openers...lol.

	Record	Date	NCAAB Technical Value Fund	1 Unit	Closing	Beat	BTC ATS			Action		1 unit
	ATS			per bet	Line	Closer?	Average			Points		ml close
715	1-0	20-Nov	ELON +31 (-110)	0.91	29.5	Y	1.5			17		-1
769	2-0	21-Nov	MISSOURI ST +8 (-108)	0.93	6.5	Y	1.5			4		-1
833	3-0	25-Nov	STANFORD +5 (-110)	0.91	4.5	Y	0.5			14		1.8
763	3-1	28-Nov	TEX A&M +1.5 (-105)	-1	3	N	-1.5			-7.5		-1
839	3-2	29-Nov	TENN +1.5 (-109)	-1	2	N	-0.5			-1.5		-1
627	4-2	30-Nov	N KENTUCKY +17 (-105)	0.95	15	Y	2			11		-1
747	5-2	3-Dec	LOYOLA CHI +1 (-101)	0.99	1	PUSH	0			13		0.95
749	6-2		N KENTUCKY +4 (-105)	0.95	4	PUSH	0			26		1.55
737	6-3	7-Dec	COLORADO +9.5 (-105)	-1	10.5	N	-1			-4.5		-1
773	7-3	8-Dec	WICHITA ST +5.5 (-110)	0.91	3.5	Y	2			24.5		1.46
790	7-4		TEX A&M +8.5 (-105)	-1	10.5	N	-1.5			-1.5		-1
724	8-4	19-Dec	UL MONROE +1.5 (-105)	0.95	4	N	-2.5			0.5		-1
687	8-5	21-Dec	N KENTUCKY +6 (-110)	-1	8	N	-2			-11		-1
708	9-5		TEX A&M +6.5 (-110)	0.91	6.5	PUSH	0			21.5		2.22
748	10-5		COLORADO +5 (-110)	0.91	5	PUSH	0			7		1.89
624	11-5	2-Jan	CHARLOTTE +1 (-110)	0.91	0	Y	1			8		0.95
691	12-5	4-Jan	ND +3.5 (-105)	0.95	3.5	PUSH	0			4.5		1.39
759	12-6		TEXAS +9.5 (-105)	-1	8.5	Y	1			-5.5		-1
639	12-7	7-Jan	LOYOLA CHI +1 (-105)	-1	1.5	N	-0.5			-2		-1
785	12-8	8-Jan	ND + 4.5 (-112)	-1	2.5	Y	2			-0.5		-1
621	13-8	11-Jan	BG +1.5 (-105)	0.95	0	Y	1.5			9.5		0.85
646	14-8		ND +3.5 (-105)	0.95	3	Y	0.5			0.5		-1
821	15-8	15-Jan	TEXAS +3 (-105)	0.95	3.5	N	-0.5			15		1.45
839	16-8		ND +2 (-105)	0.95	2	PUSH	0			6		1.15
611	17-8	16-Jan	CHARLOTTE +5.5 (-105)	0.95	6	N	-0.5			7.5		2.26
656	17-9	18-Jan	TEXAS +8 (-105)	-1	8	PUSH	0			-1		-1
735	17-10	18-Jan	CHARLOTTE +6.5 (-110)	-1	6	Y	0.5			-10.5		-1
765	17-11		STANFORD +1.5 (-105)	-1	3.5	N	-2			-2.5		-1
871	18-11	20-Jan	CHARLOTTE +4.5 (+100)	1	4.5	PUSH	0			0.5		-1
875	18-12		TEXAS +9 (-110)	-1	8.5	Y	0.5			-29		-1
619	19-12	21-Jan	E MICH +9 (-105)	0.95	8.5	Y	0.5			6		-1
631	19-13	25-Jan	E MICH +4.5 (-110)	-1	4	Y	0.5			-0.5		-1
746	20-13		DARTMOUTH +5 (-105)	0.95	4.5	Y	0.5			-1		-1
845	20-14	26-Jan	LOYOLA CHI +4.5 (-105)	-1	4	Y	0.5			-0.5		-1
835	21-14	29-Jan	TEXAS +4 (-105)	0.95	4	PUSH	0			5		1.6
629	21-15	30-Jan	CHARLOTTE +9.5 (-105)	-1	9.5	PUSH	0			-3.5		-1
861	21-16	31-Jan	DARTMOUTH +5 (-108)	-1	5.5	N	-0.5			-17		-1
634	22-16	1-Feb	E MICH +3.5 (-105)	0.95	3.5	PUSH	0			7.5		1.45
752	23-16		STANFORD +2 (-105)	0.95	2.5	N	-0.5			12		1.25
867	24-16	3-Feb	TEXAS +14 (+100)	1	14.5	N	-0.5			3		-1
614	25-17	16-Jan	E MICH +4 (-105)	0.95	3.5	Y	0.5			8		1.42
813	26-17	5-Feb	GEORGIA +10 (-110)	0.91	9.5	Y	0.5			4		-1
683	26-18	6-Feb	STANFORD +1.5 (-105)	-1	1	Y	0.5			-6.5		-1
853	27-18	7-Feb	DARTMOUTH +4.5 (-105)	0.95	3.5	Y	1			2.5		-1
671	27-19	15-Feb	GEORGIA +1 (-110)	-1	-1	Y	2			-4		-1
800	28-19	19-Feb	GEORGIA +3.5 (-110)	0.91	4	N	-0.5			13.5		1.76
657	28-20	22-Feb	LOYOLA CHI +1 (-105)	-1	-1	Y	2			-11		-1
824	29-20	23-Feb	E CAROL +3 (-110)	0.91	3.5	N	-0.5			7		1.46
872	30-20	24-Feb	TEXAS +5.5 (-102)	0.98	5.5	PUSH	0			15.5		2.02
783	31-20	26-Feb	GEORGIA +5.5 (-110)	0.91	6	N	-0.5			1.5		-1
819	32-20		E CAROL +8.5 (-110)	0.91	7.5	Y	1			3.5		-1
609	33-20	27-Feb	IONA +1.5 (-105)	0.95	1.5	PUSH	0			19.5		1.14
669	34-20		PORTLAND +17.5 (-105)	0.95	17	Y	0.5			1.5		-1
605	35-20	29-Feb	TEXAS +11 (-105)	0.95	11.5	N	-0.5			21		5.57
611	36-20		LOYOLA CHI +3 (-105)	0.95	2	Y	1			4		1.11
636	36-20		E CAROL +6 (-110)	-1	5.5	Y	0.5			-15		-1
718	37-20		GEORGIA +1 (-105)	0.95	1	PUSH	0		Action	11		0.96
									Points:
	37-20		Total:	14.86		26-17-14	0.175		mean:	3.5		3.66
									median:	3.5

If you look at the Action Points list, you can see wide range of numbers. Despite the scattered cursory look, both the mean and median points in that list are the same at +3.5 points. As sometimes the wheels come off in a game in, either direction, it's interesting that the average and median are the same.

The Action Points is one way to assess the how the bring it part of the equation and can be done against the triggered lines and the close. This way we can get a relative market comparison. It's not the best, it's the start I'm offering. Also, this is not a market tracking Fund so the way that information is treated is not the same. I just wanted to introduce the stat and challenge readers to track their action points as well.

While we like the positive action points the closing line comparison can tell us much more. It's nice to see a positive running average but it would nicer to get it closer to .5 points...



The Units have looked like this...



Not much to say here, just wish we generated more plays as it's been cookin' in this kitchen...

[Fidel_CashFlow]

I haven’t looked at this thread in 2 yrs and I come in to see a giant pack of dildos. Why am i not surprised?

2 years ?

Two years?

Then kindly go fukk yourself Greaser

[KVB]

https://www.mma-core.com/videos/Ion_Cutelaba_vs_Magomed_Ankalaev_Full_Fight_UFC_Fight_Night_169/10344269

Just wow.

[Fidel_CashFlow]

https://www.mma-core.com/videos/Ion_...t_169/10344269

Just wow.

Glad he lost

Looking like a idiot doing that shit

[Fidel_CashFlow]

Tell ya what , i wouldn't want to be a UFC ref

For many reasons

[KVB]

...Second, I want to point out the importance of the Houston game and the move all the way to -1.5 and even -2 in some places at this point in the markets.

Third, as we saw it end at Houston -1 readers are starting to get a glimpse of how they bring it in the context of what's being brought...

Davis announced out and NO becomes a -1.5 to -2 point favorite. Sound familiar?

Here's the chart if NO covers the +1.5...



Here it is if NO +1.5 fails...



I hate to lead eary and NO scored first, led after one quarter, and leads now 39-38.

Which pattern do you think I expect to see with the NBA, who "stretches it out" as I've been saying?

[KVB]

So with NO up 50-45 over the Lakers, I have picked up Lakers +150 LIVE, despite no Davis.

Risky, but +150 is worth it as the Lakers can win and still not cover the -1.5.

If NO, the Contrarian Fund play covers, we don't have a trading signal, but it's close.

[19th Hole]

This has to be the most incredible thread ever posted on any forum anywhere.

Fidel has an amazing talent.

[KVB]

So with NO up 50-45 over the Lakers, I have picked up Lakers +150 LIVE, despite no Davis...

Lakers with a 2 point lead at half. This is a key time for the market and I sure as hell wasn't the only looking to grab LA at good odds.

Taking the lead BEFORE the half negates the half time pressure that would have been on the Lakers.

Now any Lakers pressure on the 2nd half line can fail because with the Lakers having a 3 point lead, New Orleans can win the second half and cover the +1.5 leaving it open to still lose the game and not cover the closing line, which has them favored.

As a result, we should see the halftime line grow in favor or New Orleans. It matters that Davis is out.

This is my interpretation of the market I see.

[KVB]

This has to be the most incredible thread ever posted on any forum anywhere.

Fidel has an amazing talent.

[KVB]

Reported

When I went to post that in the Gold's PT daily plays thread, I forgot to delete that GIF.

SBR Tony went ahead and took care of that for me with an edit.

[KVB]

...Second, I want to point out the importance of the Houston game and the move all the way to -1.5 and even -2 in some places at this point in the markets.

Third, as we saw it end at Houston -1 readers are starting to get a glimpse of how they bring it in the context of what's being brought...

...Davis announced out and NO becomes a -1.5 to -2 point favorite. Sound familiar?

...I hate to lead eary and NO scored first, led after one quarter, and leads now 39-38.

Which pattern do you think I expect to see with the NBA, who "stretches it out" as I've been saying?...

So with NO up 50-45 over the Lakers, I have picked up Lakers +150 LIVE...

Lakers with a 2 point lead at half. This is a key time for the market and I sure as hell wasn't the only looking to grab LA at good odds.

Taking the lead BEFORE the half negates the half time pressure that would have been on the Lakers...

...As a result, we should see the halftime line grow in favor or New Orleans...

It's only after you can appreciate what they bring that you will truly be able to appreciate how they bring it.

[KVB]

[KVB]

The KVB NBA ATS/ML Fund has picked up...

585		2-Mar	MIL -4 (-110)
589			IND -2 (-105)

[KVB]

The KVB NBA Totals Fund has picked up...

580

2-Mar

POR/ATL UNDER 220 (+100)