Fly Me #3 "The Resurrection" Sports Talk,Good Tunes,Great Times, Anything Goes

turtledoves · 03-30-19, 01:22 PM

BOOOOO

was hoping for a cubs win

KVB · 03-30-19, 01:32 PM

Texas ML not a bad play too Doves, but just outside the target for now.

On mobile, but how can the MLB Contrarian Fund make an early play if it needs certain thresholds of that market info like volume or percentages?

The line was off and it was evident that it would get hit, creating an anticipated discrepancy conducive to the Fund. Predicting the market here because I was confident the line would move.

The ATL/PHI OVER I was buying at 8.5 and 9 is now 9.5.

KVB · 03-30-19, 01:38 PM

MLB Contrarian Fund...

905 ATL +131 over PHI

921 DET +117 over TOR

KVB · 03-30-19, 01:47 PM

On the UNDER 142 For tomorrow’s AUB/KY matchup.

KVB · 03-30-19, 01:54 PM

Buying Duke moneyline as well, injury to Ward will move that line to 2.5, and raise the ML.

Injury is a worry so I need another hedge to my MICH ST future.

KVB · 03-30-19, 04:18 PM

Contrarian Fund picked up...

924 TB +108 over HOU

Good Luck

Da Manster! · 03-30-19, 07:38 PM

Originally posted by KVB

Buying Duke moneyline as well, injury to Ward will move that line to 2.5, and raise the ML.

Injury is a worry so I need another hedge to my MICH ST future.

not to worry KVB...Sparty will be just fine without Ward...they go 8 deep and did OK without Ward in Big-10 play for the games that he missed with his hand injury...it's like they didn't miss a beat except for that rough stretch where they inexplicably lost 3 in a row to inferior teams...but I think Izzo will have his boys ready to play and give DOOK all they can handle...

KVB · 03-30-19, 11:42 PM

Originally posted by turtledoves

tailed, lets get it

KVB · 03-30-19, 11:45 PM

Originally posted by Da Manster!

not to worry KVB...Sparty will be just fine without Ward...they go 8 deep and did OK without Ward in Big-10 play for the games that he missed with his hand injury...it's like they didn't miss a beat except for that rough stretch where they inexplicably lost 3 in a row to inferior teams...but I think Izzo will have his boys ready to play and give DOOK all they can handle...

Let's go Mich St!!!!

In this world of give and take, I wouldn't be surprised to see the team that lost as a #2 to a #15 a couple of years ago end up facing the team that lost to a 16 for the first time.

If so, I still like Mich St to win it.

KVB · 03-31-19, 12:11 AM

The KVB MLB Early Season Contrarian Fund...

901	30-Mar	NYM/WAS OVER 7.5 (-104)	0.96
905		ATL +131	-1
905		ATL/PHI OVER 9 (+105)	1.05
915		BAL +306	3.06
921		DET +117	-1
924		TB +108	1.08

		Sat	4.15

		Thu	-1.23
		Fri	-0.42

		Total	2.5

The MLB Contrarian Runline Fund...

930	30-Mar	TEX +1.5 (-115)	0.87

		Sat	0.87

		Fri	0.74

		Total	1.61

KVB · 03-31-19, 11:10 AM

The KVB MLB Early Season Contrarian Fund has picked up...

965	31-Mar	BAL +272
967		DET +148
970		TB +104
972		MIN -101

Good Luck.

KVB · 03-31-19, 11:49 AM

The scouting pics came back from one of the Chilean Beach Handball squads...

Just sayin'.

KVB · 03-31-19, 11:51 AM

Don't worry Cashflow, everything will be fine.

Yyou'll just have to be a little more careful once you get older....

KVB · 03-31-19, 01:22 PM

The KVB MLB Contrarian Fund has added...

959

31-Mar

ARI +190

Good price here.

KVB · 03-31-19, 05:23 PM

Oh shit, Early Season Contrarian Fund on Fire Alert...

901	30-Mar	NYM/WAS OVER 7.5 (-104)	0.96
905		ATL +131	-1
905		ATL/PHI OVER 9 (+105)	1.05
915		BAL +306	3.06
921		DET +117	-1
924		TB +108	1.08

		Sat	4.15

		Thu	-1.23
		Fri	-0.42

		Total	2.5

959	31-Mar	ARI +190
965		BAL +272
967		DET +148	1.48
970		TB +104	1.04
972		MIN -101	0.99

Zona and Balty both in the lead.

Three winners in today...

Two to go...

KVB · 03-31-19, 05:38 PM

Added the night game to the MLB Contrarian Fund...

963

31-Mar

ATL +135

turtledoves · 03-31-19, 06:59 PM

Originally posted by KVB

nice hit bro. lost 99% of my roll on opening day, only won a few peanuts

turtledoves · 03-31-19, 09:33 PM

can one predict betting volume/% before the "numbers" even come in

maybe one can predict when members of the bullpen will rest to sharpen the model?

maybe i can change the weight or favor certain models based on starting pitcher profile?

gonna be quite the tentation

i have dayNight boolean values for each game

need to get into the graphs

Examples — Matplotlib 3.10.7 documentation

https://matplotlib.org/gallery/index.html

KVB · 03-31-19, 10:07 PM

Originally posted by turtledoves

can one predict betting volume before the "numbers" even come in

Of course, but I suppose it's all relative. Trying to make it not relative, with a standard scale, but really it's all relative to that day, time of season, etc.

What do you think had more volume? Mich St vs Duke, or Auburn vs. Kentucky?

It's actually pretty close.

Who do you think had more volume in MLB...PIT vs. CINCY or the night game with ATL/PHI.

That's not fair, the night game is almost always going to have more.

So much of that lends to players betting all day, reactions, and those bad behaviors like bettors betting more either because they won or because they are doubling up to get even.

Believe me, for the first weekend of MLB, with the performance of the contrarian market on Sunday (the Fund), I didn't think Zona would win the game. The price was good, but let's face it...if I had a parlay with Zona at the end, you know it would fail. If take today's winnings, thinking it's all figure out, and double up on Zona, you know it would fail. The market exploits those bad behaviors all the time.

Back to volume though, the markets are swelled in general because of opening weekend and March Madness.

It's no wonder the Contrarian Fund did so well on Saturday and Sunday.

Good to be ahead early but there will be variance. Remember last year? The Fund was up 12 units and went 0-6 one Saturday and 0-5 the very next Sunday. A big public weekend can hurt the contrarian fund, but in the long term we get the best of it.

Back to volume, I think it is becoming very important when reading the markets.

I could give a rating of each game's volume, based on my information, but it should also reflect the broader picture of volume from day to day.

But that's after the fact. When taking volume into account I am essentially predicting the relative volume because I need to get down before the line moves. The final volume info I get comes after the close.

So we see volume at work early and then see what are going to be the big games.

During the day, when capping this contrarian style, I am often calculating the relative volume. I say relative because sometimes the criteria is simply the current volume relative to the avg volume of all the games in the league.

This ratio can set itself early and not really waiver by the days end. Games above the average by certain thresholds can be targeted.

The highest volume game, the night game, gets a 10.7 rating tonight. Only one other matchup today broke 10...NYM/WAS was a 10.2.

Only two other games in the 8's everyone else below. You could probably guess, those two games were the Yankees and the Cubs.

Bettors like certain teams.

So in sense, we can predict betting volume. After all, if the Yankees faced the Cubs on a Sunday night, you can bet your ass it will be one high volume game.

Boston, and St. Louis have been drawing bets too.

I'll aggregate some numbers but I can say this...the highest volume game this weekend was opening day BOS/SEA.

I have that rated 12.4 and the overwhelming amount of bets and money was on Boston, some of the most lopsided of the season so far.

It's no surprise Seattle won. A lot of bettors were buried for sure.

The Contrarian Fund was not on that game, regrettably, but the fact the we can barely cap the games from a performance standpoint left a hole in the capping that kept me off.

Says the guy who bet 7 games opening day and 22 Total the opening weekend.

KVB · 03-31-19, 10:16 PM

I have some Total data that seem to be defying the give and take markets. Not sure if I should post it or email.

The research was spawned from a guy posting abut the Yankees totals in the thread that says to fade Baltimore every game.

Funny thread, that one. I made the case about how profitable it was to fade Balty on both the ML and RL and then it could still be profitable this year, then went on to buy Balty Sat and Sun.

KVB · 03-31-19, 10:17 PM

turtledoves · 03-31-19, 10:19 PM

thanks for the post dog

https://twitter.com/Dodgers/status/1112153387271753728?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1112154795379310593

turtledoves · 03-31-19, 10:21 PM

don't hit send is always the best advice

maybe balti was just a coincidence

maybe it was a calculated post

KVB · 03-31-19, 10:28 PM

Balty this weekend was yet another example of the give and take market. I've probably posted a half a dozen times how Balty was -50 units last year.

Opening weekend was no coincidence.

My guess is they will still be profitable to fade this year and this weekend will weed out the bettors who show patience and discipline to that fade process while slapping the greedy bettors that thought they had it figured out.

There are no coincidences, and when we see one, we're usually just looking at it wrong.

KVB · 03-31-19, 10:34 PM

KVB · 03-31-19, 10:41 PM

Originally posted by KVB

...What do you think had more volume? Mich St vs Duke, or Auburn vs. Kentucky?

It's actually pretty close.

Who do you think had more volume in MLB...PIT vs. CINCY or the night game with ATL/PHI...

I said ATL/PHI was 10.7 but PIT/CIN was a 5.3.

On the same scale, so that we can compare total volume relative to all the betting in the major markets, MICH ST/DUKE is a 42.3 while AUB/KY was 40.1.

Those are football numbers and then some. March madness is huge.

On the same scale, the BOS/DET NHL match was 2.7 and was the highest of the NHL games.

KVB · 03-31-19, 10:47 PM

The MLB Early Season Contrarian Fund...

31-Mar	ARI +190	-1
	ATL +135	-1
	BAL +272	2.72
	DET +148	1.48
	TB +104	1.04
	MIN -101	0.99

	Sun	4.23

	Thu	-1.23
	Fri	-0.42
	Sat	4.15

	Total	6.73

In 2017, the KVB MLB Contrarian Fund was up +8 units in the last week of May. It was down -24 units the first week of July and -23 units the first week of August.

It was +16 units on Nov. 1st.

KVB · 04-01-19, 12:59 AM

Bobby turned up in the Blue Note Jazz Club.

Often he can get drowned out with the rest of the band, this gives a chance to hear him work.

1:43:00 is a song call New Speedway Boogie...Bobby having fun there...

Originally posted by KVB

KVB · 04-01-19, 01:08 AM

It's almost the 1st...

KVB · 04-01-19, 01:09 AM

PittsburghPlayer · 04-01-19, 05:33 AM

Originally posted by KVB

Bobby turned up in the Blue Note Jazz Club.
Often he can get drowned out with the rest of the band, this gives a chance to hear him work.
1:43:00 is a song call New Speedway Boogie...Bobby having fun there...

smoked up and will give it a listen
if worth my while I will give to you one point
if it exceeds my expectations I will give 2
and then 2 more tomorrow

turtledoves · 04-01-19, 09:18 AM

interesting stuff

kvb in the big leagues again

stevek173 · 04-01-19, 10:24 AM

Originally posted by PittsburghPlayer

smoked up and will give it a listen
if worth my while I will give to you one point
if it exceeds my expectations I will give 2
and then 2 more tomorrow

Reported for corniness/stupidity

KVB · 04-01-19, 11:06 AM

Originally posted by PittsburghPlayer

smoked up and will give it a listen
if worth my while I will give to you one point
if it exceeds my expectations I will give 2
and then 2 more tomorrow

KVB · 04-01-19, 02:05 PM

MLB Contrarian Fund picked up...

913

1-Apr

CHW +137