Fly Me #3 "The Resurrection" Sports Talk,Good Tunes,Great Times, Anything Goes

**KVB** · 08-21-18, 07:04 PM

No sharp forecast for college football, but I will have a stacking forecast. I'm not sure about it though, could be every 50-50 without some market analysis adjusting the line.

Here's the post about players and the forecasts...

CFL 2018 Thread - Sportsbook Review Forum

https://www.sportsbookreview.com/forum/players-talk/3475843-cfl-2018-thread-p22.html#post27989705

The SBR Lobby: Sports Talk, Gambling and Bettors Chat

CFL Forecast went 0-4 ATS last week, ouch.

That's happened before but in all the years I have never seen it go 0-4 against the moneyline, last week it did.

**omedo** · 08-21-18, 07:15 PM

I have not been posting but i lurk here with some frequency.

The true is, i wanna learn and discuss things, but that could not be possible here

**KVB** · 08-21-18, 07:17 PM

Gotta admit, good to see Omedo posting.

And he's right. It may not matter as much in the NFL, with the exception of a QB, but smaller leagues really do suffer when players are out.

WNBA is notorious for those big starters being important. It can be a totally different game when some don't start or are tossed by the ref.

CFL too, there's usually a mid season QB problem that shows itself in the results.

**KVB** · 08-21-18, 07:36 PM

Originally posted by KVB

Added some plays, working right up until the end...

Tampa Bay Rays vs Boston Red Sox Under 9 (-101)MLB [General]
08/19/18 01:05 PM ET

Toronto Blue Jays vs N.Y. Yankees Under 8.5 (-127)MLB [General]
08/19/18 01:05 PM ET

San Francisco Giants vs Cincinnati Reds Under 8.5 (-116)MLB [General]
08/19/18 01:10 PM ET

Colorado Rockies vs Atlanta Braves Under 8 (-115)MLB [General]
08/19/18 01:35 PM ET

N.Y. Mets vs Philadelphia Phillies Under 8.5 (-116)MLB [General]
08/19/18 07:10 PM ET

Ch Cubs vs Pittsburgh Pirates Under 8 (-112)MLB [General]
08/19/18 01:35 PM ET

Texas Rangers -110MLB [General]
08/19/18 03:05 PM ET
...

Here's the KVB MLB Contrarian Fund since inception after Sunday's plays, getting it to 153 overall plays...

19-Aug	SF/CIN UNDER 8.5 (-116)	-1
	CHI/PIT UNDER 8 (-112)	0.89
	COL/ATL UNDER 8 (-115)	0.87
	NYM/PHI UNDER 8.5 (-116)	-1
	TB/BOS UNDER 9 (-101)	0.99
	TOR/NYY UNDER 8.5 (-127)	-1
	TEX -110	0.91

	Sun	0.66

	Week 1	3.64
	Week 2	4.73
	Week 3	-5.88
	Week 4	2.15
	Mon	-0.45
	Tue	3.05
	Wed	-1.04
	Thur	-1
	Fri	-1.12
	Sat	1.22

	Total	5.96

**KVB** · 08-21-18, 07:37 PM

Originally posted by omedo

I have not been posting but i lurk here with some frequency.

The true is, i wanna learn and discuss things, but that could not be possible here

Yep, and I gathered a bit too much attention the last couple months, just another thing that makes things difficult.

**KVB** · 08-21-18, 07:51 PM

Originally posted by KVB

Two pays For the Fund with with Atl/Pit Under 8 (-110) and Seattle +159....Good Luck.

Starting Week 6 and here's the Fund through yesterday and 155 plays, but this time not SBR contest prices...

20-Aug	ATL/PIT UNDER 8 (-110)	0.91
	SEA +159	1.59

	Mon	2.5

	Week 1	3.64
	Week 2	4.73
	Week 3	-5.88
	Week 4	2.15
	Week 5	1.32

	Total	8.46

**KVB** · 08-21-18, 07:52 PM

Originally posted by KVB

https://www.knightscope.com What’s the play here?

**KVB** · 08-21-18, 08:07 PM

I used to get one ad with some youtube music vids, now when I skip the ad there is another ad.

Fuk.

**KVB** · 08-21-18, 09:36 PM

Originally posted by KVB

Big night tonight and easily could have put in more plays, easily.

If that target circle were just a little bigger, I'd have at least 4 more plays, including MIA and the UNDER in that game....

Originally posted by KVB

Total just dropped, that Under is probably a good Under tonight...

Like I said, sometimes the bets just outside the circle or very good. I could have bet almost every game tonight.

**KVB** · 08-21-18, 09:43 PM

**turtledoves** · 08-21-18, 09:48 PM

Originally posted by KVB

**KVB** · 08-21-18, 10:02 PM

**turtledoves** · 08-21-18, 11:40 PM

stocks gonna drop tomorrow? sold a lot today

**KVB** · 08-21-18, 11:56 PM

I see futures are off a bit, should see an overall drop. I sold last week and am in some LNG limited partnerships CQH and CQP, and Starwood Property trust..STWD.

Sort of storing some cash there and may buy on some dips.

I need to get back to those markets but this week is a bit off. At least I'm home tomorrow.

**KVB** · 08-22-18, 12:17 AM

KVB MLB Contrarian Fund since inception through 163 plays with shitty SBR Prices (except for like 4 plays made on the mobile...lol).

21-Aug	SF/NYM UNDER 8 (-105)	-1
	BAL +123	-1
	CLE/BOS UNDER 9 (-106)	0
	CHW +104	-1
	TEX/OAK UNDER 9 (-115)	0.87
	SEA +111	-1
	CHI/DET OVER 9 (-110)	-1
	DET +185	1.85

	Tue	-2.28

	Week 1	3.64
	Week 2	4.73
	Week 3	-5.88
	Week 4	2.15
	Week 5	1.32
	Mon	2.5

	Total	6.18

**KVB** · 08-22-18, 12:55 AM

Yeah, well, this just belongs in here...

Originally posted by Sanity Check

**KVB** · 08-22-18, 01:01 AM

I missed a bump in HIMX, was really considering buying down at that low.

Almost everything I buy spikes initially, then different things happen but so far that Total Return Fund has winners. Even Ford spiked...lol, a little bit.

Too slow of growth though, need to get more aggressive.

**KVB** · 08-22-18, 01:56 AM

I messed up with that Seattle game. I didn't even see that late scratch, distracted for sure and never looked at this game until late.

Here's the KVB MLB Contrarian Fund through 162 plays...

21-Aug	SF/NYM UNDER 8 (-105)	-1
	BAL +123	-1
	CLE/BOS UNDER 9 (-106)	0
	CHW +104	-1
	TEX/OAK UNDER 9 (-115)	0.87
	CHI/DET OVER 9 (-110)	-1
	DET +185	1.85

	Tue	-1.28

	Week 1	3.64
	Week 2	4.73
	Week 3	-5.88
	Week 4	2.15
	Week 5	1.32
	Mon	2.5

	Total	7.18

**KVB** · 08-22-18, 02:02 AM

**KVB** · 08-22-18, 03:34 AM

**KVB** · 08-22-18, 08:56 AM

Three plays for the KVB MLB Contrarian Fund so far today...

Cincinnati Reds vs Milwaukee Brewers Over 9 (-105)MLB [General]
08/22/18 02:10 PM ET

Atlanta Braves vs Pittsburgh Pirates Over 8 (-117)MLB [General]
08/22/18 07:05 PM ET

San Francisco Giants vs N.Y. Mets Under 7.5 (-116)MLB [General]
08/22/18 07:10 PM ET

**DiggityDaggityDo** · 08-22-18, 10:57 AM

Originally posted by KVB

Yeah, well, this just belongs in here...

**DiggityDaggityDo** · 08-22-18, 12:50 PM

**KVB** · 08-22-18, 02:20 PM

Originally posted by KVB

Here's another example of how the contrarian fund could lean towards a play that doesn't appear contrarian from popular numbers and percentages.

In the Atl/Pit game, common ticket percentage numbers show a fairly split game, but I see some showing tickets on Atlanta at around 55% and it has moved upward.

So the bettors appear to be slightly trending on Atlanta. My sources show the money from our samples are heavily placed on Atlanta as well. The volume is light still but the trend shows a big enough difference between the "public" and all the money that is on Atlanta.

There are many factors, including capping the games themselves, but things like this can help put a play like the Atlanta moneyline on the radar. We'll see if the trend continues, but my guess is that tickets will grow relative to the money and Pit can hit then hit the radar. The market can change at any time, but it shows trends and reaches thresholds that trigger indicators that are historically market based.

There are regressions being used based on close to 15 years of market data and movement, including specific books.

That's why capping the game and watching individual books can help to determine a play when the market stirs up dust and makes things difficult to see...

**KVB** · 08-22-18, 02:21 PM

**KVB** · 08-22-18, 03:07 PM

**KVB** · 08-22-18, 04:48 PM

I picked up Detroit on the moneyline for the Contrarian Fund...

Atlanta Braves vs Pittsburgh Pirates Over 8 (-117)MLB [General]
08/22/18 07:05 PM ET

San Francisco Giants vs N.Y. Mets Under 7.5 (-116)MLB [General]
08/22/18 07:10 PM ET

Detroit Tigers +166MLB [General]
08/22/18 07:10 PM ET

**KVB** · 08-22-18, 04:56 PM

**turtledoves** · 08-22-18, 04:57 PM

talent

**KVB** · 08-22-18, 05:23 PM

Added another Under to the Fund...

Atlanta Braves vs Pittsburgh Pirates Over 8 (-117)MLB [General]
08/22/18 07:05 PM ET

San Francisco Giants vs N.Y. Mets Under 7.5 (-116)MLB [General]
08/22/18 07:10 PM ET

Detroit Tigers +166MLB [General]
08/22/18 07:10 PM ET

N.Y. Yankees vs Miami Marlins Under 7.5 (-117)MLB [General]
08/22/18 07:10 PM ET

**KVB** · 08-22-18, 05:33 PM

**turtledoves** · 08-22-18, 07:51 PM

**KVB** · 08-22-18, 08:02 PM

Cubs up on Detroit.

I was hoping to get Detroit again but I knew better. I wish it hadn't triggered a play, it's one of those the Fund buys with discipline, even though I knew it was a bad spot.

Maybe we get a home town heroic comeback.

**KVB** · 08-22-18, 08:17 PM

I added the Over in the Dodger game to the Fund....

Atlanta Braves vs Pittsburgh Pirates Over 8 (-117)MLB [General]
08/22/18 07:05 PM ET

San Francisco Giants vs N.Y. Mets Under 7.5 (-116)MLB [General]
08/22/18 07:10 PM ET

Detroit Tigers +166MLB [General]
08/22/18 07:10 PM ET

N.Y. Yankees vs Miami Marlins Under 7.5 (-117)MLB [General]
08/22/18 07:10 PM ET

St. Louis Cardinals vs L.A. Dodgers Over 7.5 (-109)MLB [General]
08/22/18 10:10 PM ET

**turtledoves** · 08-22-18, 08:30 PM

dave fans were so annoying in high school