Fly Me #3 "The Resurrection" Sports Talk,Good Tunes,Great Times, Anything Goes

**PerfectGrape** · 11-04-16, 06:39 PM

bulls under again looking supersweet

superdumb

**PerfectGrape** · 11-04-16, 06:40 PM

FU d rose

Fu pordingis

**PerfectGrape** · 11-05-16, 10:07 AM

wisc, illini under
army

**KVB** · 11-05-16, 10:34 AM

I took Texas -3 in BTP, that's basically all I have for the early time slot. I may be going by time slots today. Not the best day for BTP and betting in general.

My sharpest forecast has Texas winning by a TD, I hope the line movement to 3 doesn't make the difference...but it probably will...lol.

Texas -3 (-105)NCAAF [General]
11/05/16 12:00 PM ET

**KVB** · 11-05-16, 10:39 AM

I took Texas to win in the open 4 pick as well. I'm losing some patience and not waiting for in day market reads.

To Win	Short Description
Open	Football - 302 No Illinois -16½ -110 for Game Football - 399 Texas -145 for Game

**KVB** · 11-05-16, 02:35 PM

I like Florida-3.5 and Clemson -28 but will pass on both. Let's see which loser I avoided.

**KVB** · 11-05-16, 03:47 PM

Originally posted by KVB

smokenJ, manster, Jmon, CashFlow, Grapes, post some beats and tunes I need some new shit...

**KVB** · 11-05-16, 06:42 PM

It seems like I let some good ones pass this morning and let NC State go by as well, that game just started. At this point I like Ohio State but, truthfully, the lines are really tight and I see things coming to a sort of head. I have the winning by 17 and you'll just have to take my word for it that it's feeling as tight as the market says with Ohio St -17. I'm not surprised it hits -17.5 or takes heavy cost on -17.

After all, I'm considering it. One tight ass line for sure.

I also would not fade Bama right now. They are a bit like the Patriots in the NFL, or like Woods was in golf, a bullet, busting metrics.

It's like I anticipated, this is a tough week with some gambling and let downs involved. I think the best is behind us, I should have anticipated better.

Still might take Ohio State, desperated for BTP winners, really counting too heavily on NFL, which is the same type of week. I suppose I could take a week off, or just not make 5 plays. May be best not to lose, rather than try to force a win.

I'm not so much scared money, just know it's a dangerous week.

Sorry I have no more. Heading to dinner later and may not even be able to squeeze out a market read, fawk.

**KVB** · 11-05-16, 06:45 PM

lol...nc state scored first...watch 'em lose.

**KVB** · 11-05-16, 06:55 PM

**PerfectGrape** · 11-06-16, 01:20 AM

voting is for suckaz

**PerfectGrape** · 11-06-16, 02:46 AM

kc under, min over, maybe mia under

**KVB** · 11-06-16, 03:37 AM

Originally posted by KVB

Round 2 PGA matchups...

To Win	Short Description
Open	Football - 302 No Illinois -16½ -110 for Game
	Golf - 7211 K. Bradley -190 for Game Golf - 7219 R. Henley -195 for Game Golf - 7227 H. English -160 for Game

This pays 2.752 to 1. I used the parlay to reduce risk in an attempt to increase the reward.

Henley fukked this parlay up but before I could post that he "owes us one" he shot the lowest of everyone for round 3.

I was a day off with him.

**KVB** · 11-06-16, 03:47 AM

Even though my sharp forecast has Philly actually winning 24-21, I don't think it's right against the moneyline.

The public gauge shows Philly winning 23-20 just too close to the sharper forecast to be predicting a dog, in my opinion.

The stacking forecast says Giants win 24-17 and I'm inclined to believe the result of a Giant win with this one.

These lines seem to get the TOTAL story as the market shows but I think the Giant winner is the correct play.

I don't think Philly can win this and I put the Giants to win in the open parlay.

I hope they can cover the -2.5 in BTP and made it x2 despite the -125...

To Win	Short Description
Open	Football - 302 No Illinois -16½ -110 for Game Football - 399 Texas -145 for Game Football - 456 New York Giants -149 for Game

N.Y. Giants -2.5 (-125)NFL [General]
11/06/16 01:00 PM ET

Good Luck.

**KVB** · 11-06-16, 03:53 AM

Originally posted by PerfectGrape

voting is for suckaz

It just might be.

What's worse, I'm not sure I like the recent line shifts on those political bets, they weren't what I was hoping for.

I may be stuck holding some Trump and rooting for the dog, in Florida as well as the general election.

**KVB** · 11-06-16, 04:33 AM

Originally posted by PerfectGrape

kc under, min over, maybe mia under

Lines and market a bit tight on those games, Miami Under maybe not a bad play actually. I'm still looking at the TOTALS for tomorrow. I think the afternoon may be a good reaction play.

I have Dallas beating Cleveland 41-17, that's 68 points. The lined moved from 46.5 to 49.5. It moved through 47 and even 48.

The stacked forecast has a 48 point game.

When bets are triggered in the NFL there is usually a minimum discrepancy between the forecast and the market that serves as a threshold to bet. Despite the higher end forecasts and the public seeking the OVER, the market moving buying should have slowed closer to 48. The rise in the line to 49.5 could be artificial as market moving money would likely take it further than this.

It's an odd resting place at 49.5 and is something to note. Let's see what happens as game time draws near. The contrarian in me suspects this could be an UNDER but the NFL has a way of shifting the market picture before game time.

Regardless, I don't think this is the closing line.

**PerfectGrape** · 11-06-16, 10:33 AM

dallas really that good on offense?

**KVB** · 11-06-16, 12:50 PM

There's just so much to write about with each game, even with six teams in a bye. Just no time.

As far as Dallas, it's not just their offense, but the Cleveland defense. I wrote 68 points above, of course it's 58. I have not bought Dallas, and almost bought Cleveland in BTP at +7.5 then the line shifted, so I said fuk it. I don't like the high Dallas rating in my forecast but Cleveland is a mess.

Both Dallas/Cle and Pitt/Balt have total lines that opened triggering bets with the sharp line, but moved towards my line out of range. Sharp money playing totals in the AFC North.

Jax/KC opened at 45.5 and dropped to 43, similar to action I've posted about. I have a 48 point game with KC winning 31-17 and bets were triggered on the move. This game could be the OVER this time, it is the second half of the season.

I may be trying to react for the afternoon. I still need 3 BTP plays. The Niners may be one, still looking at info.

This one's for nancy-boy...

**KVB** · 11-06-16, 12:53 PM

If you've noticed my posts, I've let a lot of winners go by, or at least avoided losers, either way, a lot of accurate thought but no direct plays. Sometimes, this is the type of patience needed during what is essentially the third quarter of the NCAAF and NFL seasons.

**DiggityDaggityDo** · 11-06-16, 12:57 PM

**KVB** · 11-06-16, 01:21 PM

I took Dallas -6.5 live after Cleveland kicked a field goal.

Giants up two TD's early...

**DiggityDaggityDo** · 11-06-16, 01:22 PM

Originally posted by KVB

I took Dallas -6.5 live after Cleveland kicked a field goal.

Giants up two TD's early...

I have Cowboys ML in a 3 teamer. Lets get this, KVB.

**KVB** · 11-06-16, 01:36 PM

Fuk, looking at that scoreboard and seeing Giants up 14-3 in the first just makes me queasy. We all know how this tends to go.

We need Giants to hold on DDD, I have them -2.5 x2 in BTP. It's a big play this week as that BTP leaderboard is tight.

**DiggityDaggityDo** · 11-06-16, 01:40 PM

Fukk KVB... I have Eagles +3.5 in the same parlay.

And a single bet: Eagles ML +145

**DiggityDaggityDo** · 11-06-16, 01:41 PM

Thanks for reminding me about BTP though. I completely forgot to get my plays in for that.

I better start looking at the evening games.

**KVB** · 11-06-16, 01:48 PM

Originally posted by DiggityDaggityDo

Fukk KVB... I have Eagles +3.5 in the same parlay.

And a single bet: Eagles ML +145

I'd say you're looking good, +3.5 may be alright....except that Philly just failed a 4th down conversion in FG range as I was typing.

Remember this guy?...

**DiggityDaggityDo** · 11-06-16, 01:51 PM

Originally posted by KVB

except that Philly just failed a 4th down conversion in FG range as I was typing.

**KVB** · 11-06-16, 02:23 PM

Here are the online pending as I've been putting every play in here...

Props and Futures...

Short Description

Political Futures - US 2016 Presidential Election - Candidate to win the 2016 Presidential Election - Donald Trump +305

Golf Futures - 2016 Golf Events - PGA - Shriners Hospitals for Children - Odds to win Shriners Hospitals for Children - Field (Any Other Golfer) +500

Political Futures - US 2016 Presidential Election - US 2016 Presidential Election - by State - State Winner - Florida - Republican -110

- Point Spread: DAL Cowboys -6.5 -117.172 - Sun Nov 06 2016 12:47EST: DAL Cowboys @ CLE Browns

And the pending plays...

To Win	Short Description
Open	Football - 302 No Illinois -16½ -110 for Game Football - 399 Texas -145 for Game Football - 456 New York Giants -149 for Game
	Football - 456 New York Giants -2½ -129 buying ½ for Game
	Football - 456 New York Giants -154 for Game

With such a lack of plays, I forced the Giants a bit. It's going to be a long second half.

**KVB** · 11-06-16, 02:46 PM

I'm starting to nibble at SF all over the place. I know it seems early, so much will change in an hour but I actually have New Orleans winning this game 41 to 27. That is 68 point game.

Further, this Saints rating is too high and pushing the limits of some metrics. I'm countering them despite not seeing any second half football (an inherent risk when trying to read the markets).

I have them in BTP +5 (-110) and picked it up online...

N.Y. Giants -2.5 (-125)NFL [General]
11/06/16 01:00 PM ET

SAN FRANCISCO +5 (-110)NFL [General]
11/06/16 04:05 PM ET

To Win	Short Description
Open	Football - 302 No Illinois -16½ -110 for Game Football - 399 Texas -145 for Game Football - 456 New York Giants -149 for Game
	Football - 456 New York Giants -2½ -129 buying ½ for Game
	Football - 456 New York Giants -154 for Game
	Football - 464 San Francisco 49ers +4½ +103 for Game

**KVB** · 11-06-16, 02:59 PM

Originally posted by KVB

...Both Dallas/Cle and Pitt/Balt have total lines that opened triggering bets with the sharp line, but moved towards my line out of range. Sharp money playing totals in the AFC North...

Both games with the same score, 21-10 at half time. It's not what they bring, it's how they bring it.

Most people can't get past the what to ever understand the how; that makes them very far from getting the why.

**KVB** · 11-06-16, 03:57 PM

I picked up UNDER 52 in the Indy/Gb game and made it my 4th BTP play.

Football - 464 San Francisco 49ers +4½ +103 for Game

Football - 467 Indianapolis Colts/Green Bay Packers under 52 -103 for Game

Taking a contrarian stance here.

**KVB** · 11-06-16, 04:14 PM

lol...I started to write about it but then decided there wasn't enough time to finish the thought but my forecast for the Det/Minn was a 17-17 tie. That triggers a buy on Detroit down to 4.5 points. The line crashed to 4 points.

These lines aren't necessarily sharp, but they tend to get there by game time. I hate to past post a forecast but this is a good example of the this time of year and the market's adherence to sophisticated numbers and decision makers.

**KVB** · 11-06-16, 05:19 PM

I say too much too soon for the Saints, I took a little more SF online...

Short Description

Political Futures - US 2016 Presidential Election - Candidate to win the 2016 Presidential Election - Donald Trump +305

Golf Futures - 2016 Golf Events - PGA - Shriners Hospitals for Children - Odds to win Shriners Hospitals for Children - Field (Any Other Golfer) +500

Political Futures - US 2016 Presidential Election - US 2016 Presidential Election - by State - State Winner - Florida - Republican -110

- Point Spread: SF 49ers +10.5 -107.071 - Sun Nov 06 2016 15:56EST: NO Saints @ SF 49ers

I need Rod Pampling to win to cash the PGA Field bet.

**KVB** · 11-06-16, 05:33 PM

One more time in the trading account...

Short Description

- Point Spread: SF 49ers +10.5 -107.071 - Sun Nov 06 2016 15:56EST: NO Saints @ SF 49ers

- Point Spread: SF 49ers +14.5 -107.071 - Sun Nov 06 2016 15:56EST: NO Saints @ SF 49ers

**KVB** · 11-06-16, 07:53 PM

Far too much reason to buy the under tonight. I'm taking the OVER, and when it comes late, I'm doing it again tomorrow. The NFL has forced patience for the contrarian bettor and if this were the first half of the season he would rightfully be winning with an UNDER tonight in what would be a settlement style game.

But it's the second half of the season. I think the OVER ends up paying here and settlement occurs Monday night with yet another OVER.

I have Oakland winning 31-27.

Stacking forecast has Denver scoring 21 points to Oakland's 21 or 23 points. Very close to the market there.

The public gauge has Denver winning 23-20.

I think the NFL shows the guys looking for that UNDER who's really in control.

To Win	Short Description
Open	Football - 302 No Illinois -16½ -110 for Game Football - 399 Texas -145 for Game Football - 456 New York Giants -149 for Game
	Football - 471 Denver Broncos/Oakland Raiders over 44½ -108 for Game

Fawk, it moved to 44.5 while I was typing this. It's ok, that's the opener and I'm fine with that here.

Good Luck.