Originally posted by smokenjoke
Originally posted by JMon
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KVB, morning.Originally posted by KVB
Going to shoot out my (promised)mini write up shortly
what you doing for the big game tonight ?Comment -
It’s SuperBowl Sunday…do you know where your line movementsare?
Originally posted by KVB
I’m feelin’ a bit “on” today boyz.
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Sup KVB. Saw that shit last night and it had me Rollin
What you got cooking for tonight?¿?
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Originally posted by Fidel_CashFlowAnd a good day to you, sirs. Tonight? A little of thisOriginally posted by smokenjokeSup KVB. Saw that shit last night and it had me Rollin
What you got cooking for tonight?¿?
a little of that 
whilst doing a little 
and those Seahawks!
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Sacks under 4.5? The dream is some of the tastiest I ever hadComment -
Lets face it, you cant diss a bettor for taking either of these 2 teams today.
You have the Super Bowl Champion Seahawks, who seem to get whatever they need to pick up the win.
And you have the war tested Patriots, one decade to this day its been since they won the big game.
But here are some reasons why I like my money on the Patriots @ -1
A lot of it comes down to match ups . I do not specifically mean individual match ups more then I mean
one teams defensive playing schemes against the opposing teams offensive designs as a group.
This match up , considering the passing attack only, ((imo)) ,
greatly favors New England and their drive style.
Brady will take what you give him, and he will do this all the way down the field.
Seattle has been known to allow short passes in front of them.
This is also the reason why im playing Brady over 24.5 completions today as well.
Simple way to think of this particular game is, Brady's line allows him time normally(even against the tough defenses) and Seattle happens to not be a great pass rushing unit.
Spreading them out with the 2 tight end formations is going to allow many short 5+ yard catches to be open. The question is, will Brady remain calm and methodically take it play by play like he normally does.
This will be key, will Brady pass up the automatic open first down for 5 yards on 3rd and 4 ,
and instead make an attempt at a 1 on 1 covered receiver hailmary 50 yards down the field.
For me, im hoping he takes the 5 yard first down each time... even if a decent shot at long ball is there
A lot of my personal reasoning behind this play revolves heavily behind there last 2 paragraphs.
The running game has to go to Lynch and the Seahawks.Lynch scares the shit out of me.
What I see Patriots preparing for defensively is stopping Lynch and QB Wilson's scramblling for a first down
on crucial 3rd downs.I know , easier said then done on stopping Lynch.
But if they can slightly contain him in the least then that bodes greatly for Pats
since Seattle's offense looks anemic when they become strictly a pass oriented team.
Worth noting that in all 4 Seahawk losses this year,each loss the other team had over 100 rushing yards.
Blunt is important here... but I honestly am clueless how good he is going to do.
The Pats do not need Blount as badas the Hawks need Lynch to perform.
But that does not mean Blount can stink it up and Pats still win.
They just need Blount to pick up some (league average) type yardage and the rest should fall into place.
Seattle does not possess the receivers to win a game against Patriots solely using the aerial attack.
pats front seven is EXTREMELY athletic. Could give Wilson some major probs in those crucial scrambling miracles he pulls off
Patriots defense matches up quite well with Seahawks, once again, this only matters if they contain Lynch.
Darrelle Revis actually had more pro bowl votes then his nemesis Sherman. Pats are healthy on defense
and carry quite possibly more overall depth. Seattles 3 main defensive anchors are battling injuries
couple extra points.
Seattle is not @ home.
Earl Thomas has slightly dislocated shoulder(as mentioned)
along with the 2 other main defenders Chancellor and Sherman nursing injuries
During the defensive run for the Seahawks. Here is the quarterbacks they beat.
Derek Carr, Eli Manning,lost to Alex Smith Chiefs,
won against Drew Stanton , Colin Kaepernick twice,
then beat Ryan Lindley, Shaun Hill, Cam Newton, and then Aaron Rodgers(who played the game with crutches)
and oh yeah, we are talking about this game
because of this....
and this also....
win or lose, the Patriots simply do not breakdown and fold like that.
Seattle will have to come out there and earn each snap.
Last year , Seahawks moved on with a real controversial game against the
Niners(which I thought Seattle should of lost)
but they simply have a way of winning.
Hope the refs do not allow a over stimulated physicality by Seattle's defense
to smother this game. Its been well documented( by fans,officials, and other teams) that was a direct reason for their success last year.
Im not counting the Super Bowl though.
I will fall to my knees and admit the Seahawks came out and won that game
fair and square and in dominating fashion. I will shut the fukk up now
Patriots -1
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Carolina had 21 first downs compared to Seattle's 15 first downs 2 weeks ago.
Packers had 19 first downs, and before that onside kick with under 2 minutes
and the ensuing possessions Seattle was only at 15 first downs.
Patriots had 29 and 28 first downs respectively in their 2 games these playoffs.
They scored a total of 80 points , while Seattle scored 59 (with 6 of those coming in overtime)
Seattle is a dangerous team though.
Espcially when a breath of life has been blown into their lungs like the onside kick and unreal 2 point conversion
to pull off the victory against Green bay. Its why I bet this game like a normal bet for the most part.
2 units on Pats -1, and 1 unit on Brady over 24.5 completions . Either way, wont be a big win or loss tonight.
And thats the way I like it .
Patriots 24
Seahawks 20
Gronk , you better cause total disruption out there ....Comment -
Aaron Hernandez won't be allowed to watch the Super Bowl
Former New England Patriots star Aaron Hernandez won't be allowed to watch
the team take on the Seattle Seahawks in the Super Bowl while on trial for murder.
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Good subjective breakdown and matchup analysis CashFLow. And it's tough to overlook those injuries, you make a good case.
I also see how you folded that prop bet into the write-up...very nice. Another good case.
The difference is protection from a one point Seattle win but I think you may be able to get NE +1 just about anywhere. These late bets could be a push...paying out the short end of the pick.
I love superbowl Sunday, mis-direction everywhere. It's all about money flow and money is swaying back and forth! I see it every year.
I had FSU second half vs. Miami and the Celtics 2nd half vs the Heat. The NBA game seems to easy though, 3rd quarter already a comeback...it could get shady in the end.
A lot can be learned by watching the books on SuperBowl Sunday.
Good luck today!Comment -
Next for punishment...he'll stand on the street corner wearing a sandwhich board that says what he did and that he knows it was wrong.Originally posted by Fidel_CashFlow
Aaron Hernandez won't be allowed to watch the Super Bowl
Former New England Patriots star Aaron Hernandez won't be allowed to watch
the team take on the Seattle Seahawks in the Super Bowl while on trial for murder.
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you too KVB. Preciate the love even though we do not agree on who is going to win.
There are good arguments I could write that show legitimate cause for Seattle winning as well.
All the brainstorming in the world cant pinpoint what is going to happen in 1 single game though.
Best you can try to do is find a edge. Wish this game would kick off sooon lol
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lolOriginally posted by KVBNext for punishment...he'll stand on the street corner wearing a sandwhich board that says what he did and that he knows it was wrong.
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this is a real screenshot of the football video game Madden profiling Aaron Hernandez
Trigger Happy, u cant make this shit up .
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Seattle just named a new defensive player....ShaNequa Dasheeki Washington.
Highlights featured at the beginning of the vid below:
The Pats are doomed.Comment -
anyone have an angle on this ? from PurrrfectGOriginally posted by PerfectGrape
had to choose, id say under 4.5
Wilson good at gettin ball away and avoiding sacks
Brady does the same , and is protected pretty well back there.
Tough prop though . You see any others you like ?Comment -
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A typical SB Sunday. I have Boston -5 2nd half LOL:Originally posted by KVB
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Of course its a push, they backed out of this one. Let's hope the system has shat out it's only big push of the day. A push for the late SB bettors would be a bummer.Originally posted by KVBA typical SB Sunday. I have Boston -5 2nd half LOL:
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Let's not forget golf, look at the comeback there. I'm on it! Haven't won it, but I'm on it! Bubba or Hideki, it's all good over here! Same shit, different year.
Let's see the deals on last minute prpos hmmm...Comment -
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I suppose there could be one more "push" todayComment -
Some SuperBowl props to chew on...
(From 5dimes)
1. No 2pt Conv/Att (-400) expensive but good.
2. NE Fumbles Lost Over 1.5 (+140) the balls will feel different for the Pats this time. lol
3. Tom Brady Rush yards Over 3.5 (+120) Belichick has surprises too, and they're not just defensive!
And some for the gambler within us all:
4. Dow Jones Monday after SuperBowl...UP -145 better know your markets here!
5. Total TD's: Under 5 (+128) or U 5.5 (-125) a tough one here. Even considered Over 5.5 (+105)
And finally:
6. Seattle wins by 1 (+2500) wins by 4 (+1800) wins by 10 (+1900) good payouts here!
PS...eff Martin Laird. He needs to lose today. Playoff in golf wold not surprise me today...deception abounds!Comment -
one good thing about if Seattle wins, it means Russel Wilson wins
and I like that dude. Wish the guy all the best as far as a healthy long career.
Class act, and great game quarterbackComment -
Originally posted by KVBSome SuperBowl props to chew on...
(From 5dimes)
1. No 2pt Conv/Att (-400) expensive but good.
2. NE Fumbles Lost Over 1.5 (+140) the balls will feel different for the Pats this time. lol
3. Tom Brady Rush yards Over 3.5 (+120) Belichick has surprises too, and they're not just defensive!
And some for the gambler within us all:
4. Dow Jones Monday after SuperBowl...UP -145 better know your markets here!
5. Total TD's: Under 5 (+128) or U 5.5 (-125) a tough one here. Even considered Over 5.5 (+105)
And finally:
6. Seattle wins by 1 (+2500) wins by 4 (+1800) wins by 10 (+1900) good payouts here!
PS...eff Martin Laird. He needs to lose today. Playoff in golf wold not surprise me today...deception abounds!
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Flowz
that write was nothing short of "bad ass"
i agree 100% u can't fault anyone for takin either side
you're betting a #1 seed either way
It's not often you get two well coached teams that both are great 2 half teams
this matchup should make for one of the more competitive games we have seen in a while
the battle of the brains as well as braun
does Brady and belichick quiet the "you mad bro"
or
does Sherman spit againComment -
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thanks manOriginally posted by innovationFlowz
that write was nothing short of "bad ass"
i agree 100% u can't fault anyone for takin either side
you're betting a #1 seed either way
It's not often you get two well coached teams that both are great 2 half teams
this matchup should make for one of the more competitive games we have seen in a while
the battle of the brains as well as braun
does Brady and belichick quiet the "you mad bro"
or
does Sherman spit again
Its too bad these guys cant play a best of 3 instead of one game
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tried to contact 2 co workers so far to cover for me tonight.
The big game is tonight of course they know what I want
Sayin fukk the Super Bowl party if I cant get the night off
should of asked someone days ago
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here weeeee gooooooComment -
rulebook states.
if you hit the plant leg its 15 yards.....Pats would had ball around the 45
but Patriots still hold .....
Seattle is up 1 so far in fortuitous calls
(but whats new)
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Long drives that result in turnovers are a good recipe for the Under. A lot of game left though, remember it's a day of deception!
I was hoping for fumbles, not INT's, I have that O 1.5 NE fumbles.Comment -
I love Brady, but hes gotta start running for those first downs on plays like that....Comment -
I also have that Brady Over 3.5 yards (+120), fawk!!Originally posted by Fidel_CashFlow
By the way, my SB analysis suggested NE would score first. One of these is deceiving...it looks like NE and Under, I say today one is false? Is it gonna go OVER? Or is it gonna be Sea winning?Comment
