Nunya's Official only talking about MMA betting except when I'm not thread.

[NunyaBidness]

Ahh, here it is:

The Kansas City Chiefs host the Denver Broncos, while the Baltimore Ravens host the San Diego Chargers, both on Sunday, November 30th.

• 2 units: 6 point teaser at odds of -120

Chiefs +7.5
Ravens -0

• 2 units: Spread bet at odds of -105

Packers -3

• 4 units: Parlay at odds of -123

Steelers (-200)

Colts (-475)

[getlucky2win]

lol fury should read your thread. teasers are doing good this yr right? i know i turned a profit on em

[NunyaBidness]

lol fury should read your thread. teasers are doing good this yr right? i know i turned a profit on em

It's been the worst year for teasers since I've been betting them. Its only been very profitable instead of extremely profitable this year.

[Beelzebubzy]

So I have 10 units on Pats +3.5 -115. And 10 units on pats +155. I could now take packers -2.5 -110. But that wouldn't be optimal right? I should just keep the off market number. I do think the patriots are the right side fwiw.

Nice

[Skel]

Noob question: How is a teaser superior to just buying points on the individual games? Isn't a teaser the same thing, only with the games parlayed?

[NunyaBidness]

Noob question: How is a teaser superior to just buying points on the individual games? Isn't a teaser the same thing, only with the games parlayed?

Because you get the points at a discount if you tease the right points.

Easiest example, Colts were -7.5 today, with a ML of -400. Taking a teaser of them at -1.5 gives you ALMOST the same as the moneyline, but at -260 instead.

[Rubber Guard]

so kc +1?

[Keyboard Warrior]

Noob question: How is a teaser superior to just buying points on the individual games? Isn't a teaser the same thing, only with the games parlayed?

Everything is covered here

http://www.amazon.com/Sharp-Sports-Betting-Stanford-Wong/dp/0935926240/ref=sr_1_1/179-3588780-4712437?s=books&ie=UTF8&qid=1417397596&sr=1-1

Of course you will need a up to date push chart. Which is easy enough to make. Seems people get stuck on getting or extracting the data.

But NFL seems like a waste of time. I scrape more obscure sports now and do very basic analysis and it is easy to win. I think Napes is building a mma database. I could help with any python scraping if you got a question. Right now my very basic database of the Korean V-league women is making me money.

[NunyaBidness]

so kc +1?

No, you want to tease through the 3 and 7.

[Keyboard Warrior]

Fury is legit dumb. I thought he was just a scammer but he really doesnt understand math at all. It's not bad luck.

Expected Return against Point Spread in the NFL

All favorite	47.19%	50.05%	2.76%	-7.15%
All underdogs	50.05%	47.19%	2.76%	-1.69%
All visiting	48.71%	48.57%	2.72%	-4.29%
All home	48.57%	48.71%	2.72%	-4.56%
Home favorite	47.56%	49.75%	2.70%	-6.51%
Visiting underdog	49.75%	47.56%	2.70%	-2.33%
Home underdog	50.70%	46.39%	2.91%	-0.30%
Visiting favorite	46.39%	50.7%	2.91%	-8.53%

[NunyaBidness]

But NFL seems like a waste of time. .

NFL is the easiest money on earth, you can get huge edges and huge amounts down for minimal amounts of work. If you have a decent size bankroll you could easily live off working an hour a week at betting nfl without knowing anything beyond what has been described in this thread.

Sure, you can get higher edges in other sports, but you're not going to get anywhere near the volume.

[Keyboard Warrior]

Now do you really want to buy picks from a guy who parlays favorites in the NFL after reading that chart?

[NunyaBidness]

Nice

Beez with the dick move? Didn't see that coming.

[Keyboard Warrior]

NFL is the easiest money on earth, you can get huge edges and huge amounts down for minimal amounts of work. If you have a decent size bankroll you could easily live off working an hour a week at betting nfl without knowing anything beyond what has been described in this thread.

Sure, you can get higher edges in other sports, but you're not going to get anywhere near the volume.

That is not my experience. NFL seems almost unbeatable. Yeah Wong's work but look at Heritage and others. Wong's are harder to get down.

[NunyaBidness]

Now do you really want to buy picks from a guy who parlays favorites in the NFL after reading that chart?

It works in MMA tho, right? They wouldn't be the favorites if they weren't supposed to win.

[NunyaBidness]

That is not my experience. NFL seems almost unbeatable. Yeah Wong's work but look at Heritage and others. Wong's are harder to get down.

If that's not your experience, you're not trying hard enough. Plenty of wong outs still available. You're not going to get them at Heritage or Bookmaker, obviously.

There's also plenty of other non-wong teasers available that are profitable too, but I'm not giving those out.

[NunyaBidness]

NFL seems almost unbeatable.

Even ignoring wongs, NFL is super easy to beat. No sport has more square bettors. So many squares sometimes that the sharps can't do anything to push the line into shape, especially during the superbowl.

[Keyboard Warrior]

I dont know of any other teasers that work other than Wong. Maybe the Home dog subset. But that is just data mining. Can bet those SU.

Perhaps can you mention the wong outs that give good enough volume to live on? I didnt think you could really do that.

[NunyaBidness]

Sent you a PM

[Keyboard Warrior]

I think we are just confused. NFL is a money train because of the endless props and the vast majority of shitty slow moving books that take NFL. I was just commenting from betting the spread and moneyline at the safe books. Maybe openers are profitable. But like you said the smaller sports seem beatable for a guy like me and thus worth the time to scrape and analyze. NFL is just too hard for me. Other than player props or wongs.

[brent2014]

....

[Beelzebubzy]

Beez with the dick move? Didn't see that coming.

aww shit. I thought he was on Pack.
Haha
Jibby Reading

[JIBBBY]

I'm reading Beezly.. Not impressed with Luca Fury and his picks that's for sure... Not impressed with the Ravens losing the game out right today either... Denver Broncos win was nice though to finish the day off though.

[Napes21]

Are all you foolz on Kountermove? Anyone interested in getting a little SBR Kountermove league going? Can keep stakes at whatever people are interested in - - was really just thinking would be more fun to have a 10 or 20 guy league going, start a thread, and keep track of results as kind of an ongoing thing / bragging rights.

[Vaughany]

i do it now and again. Never got how it was decided on how much a fighter was worth.

[mmaed]

NFL is the easiest money on earth, you can get huge edges and huge amounts down for minimal amounts of work. If you have a decent size bankroll you could easily live off working an hour a week at betting nfl without knowing anything beyond what has been described in this thread.

Sure, you can get higher edges in other sports, but you're not going to get anywhere near the volume.

What would be decent? Im just curious.

[Napes21]

i do it now and again. Never got how it was decided on how much a fighter was worth.

You mean how they determine the price or how they actually score? If people were interested I would set up a new thread to track league, determine what we are playing for and set up the KM leagues. Think we would need at least 10 people to make it interesting at all.

[Keyboard Warrior]

countermove takes a cut right? if we just want a fantasy mma league would be easy to do it with bitcoin. could track it manually or use some kind of simple web interface so guys can enter their picks. I wouldnt trust SBR tho. Would probably shut us down for booking or some stupid shit. We a need a private reddit or irc channel IMO

[Keyboard Warrior]

Napes can you believe MD refused to join a irc channel because he would expose his IP? What do you really think he is up to? He has to be paranoid for a reason.

[JIBBBY]

Napes can you believe MD refused to join a irc channel because he would expose his IP? What do you really think he is up to? He has to be paranoid for a reason.

My guess is with the constant abuse of mind altering drugs for so many years paranoid thoughts have finally creeped into MD's mind and have taken over his every thought... The man is a ghost on this forum.. He's constantly asked basic questions from regulars, like what Country are you from? MD evades these questions like the plague.

Got shock therapy??? lol..

[NunyaBidness]

What would be decent? Im just curious.

Lower 6 figures.

[NunyaBidness]

countermove takes a cut right? if we just want a fantasy mma league would be easy to do it with bitcoin. could track it manually or use some kind of simple web interface so guys can enter their picks. I wouldnt trust SBR tho. Would probably shut us down for booking or some stupid shit. We a need a private reddit or irc channel IMO

Kountermove rake is beyond ridiculous. And they give nothing in kickbacks to their players. At least draftday and fanduel give rakeback to their high volume players. You can count on one hand the number of people who are +EV at KM and probably have fingers to spare.

[PunisherIND]

Kountermove rake is beyond ridiculous. And they give nothing in kickbacks to their players. At least draftday and fanduel give rakeback to their high volume players. You can count on one hand the number of people who are +EV at KM and probably have fingers to spare.

So you're in?

[NunyaBidness]

So you're in?

Of course.

[Skel]

The Kountermove scoring algorithm is f*cked. Their highest scoring performance ever is Krylov against Donovan.