Tournament Strategy

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Just another observation on Post-Flop play:

* If Player flops something strong...it's going All-in. No deception, no slow-play. Just all-in.

Crazy.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

* Who's In Lead, vs Who Has Equity.

This is a concept that's foreign to a lot of players. Particularly, if player has big Pocket-pair and flops an Overpair. Player feels entitled to win these hands. Hand example:

* I make a Speculative open w/ 76(diamonds). Opponent just calls and sets trap w/ JJ.

Wet-board flop, in top 2% of my possible flops. 874 w/ two diamonds. I now have a million outs. 9 flush cards, 3 gutters, 5 to 2pair+.

JJ puts me all-in. Of course, I call. The part he doesn't comprehend is that he's ahead AT THE MOMENT. But I'm a clear statistical favorite now. 58/41.

If I'm getting +200 on a Call...my last call is a +74% ROI. I'll take that every day of the week. If u find a sports-betting event like that...plz let me know!

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Heard an interesting comment from dealer, when I was playing Cash Ring-game:

* He dealt out Board w/ 5Diamonds. One player held 2Diamonds in her hand.

Dealer said "7-card Flush. That's rarer than a Royal."

Dealer might deal 50,000 hands per Year. Said he sees 7-card Flush maybe once per Year. Claimed that he actually deals more Royals.

Point is that a Flushy board becomes much trickier to play. I call any Card game (Pinochle, Blackjack, Poker etc) a "game of dis-placement." IE, any card that comes off changes the proportions of the remaining deck.

Flushy boards can be provide opportunity to bluff. If the board shows 4+ Diamonds, the Diamond-density on the REMAINING cards is now much less. It's no longer 25% Diamonds. If u see 4Diamonds in the 7exposed cards (5Board +2InYourHand), the remainder is 20% Diamonds. My point is that it's now more likely that NO ONE has a Diamond. Just food for thought.

[Jayvegas420]

Chucky, wanna do A WSOP ME last longer pool?
100 points?
See how many Guys we can get then decide how many runners we are allowed to pick?

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Chucky, wanna do A WSOP ME last longer pool?
100 points?
See how many Guys we can get then decide how many runners we are allowed to pick?

Jay, I'm always up for Friendly bet. I would do it.

I have some personal favorites that I would like to go deep:
* Daniel Negreanu. Likable guy. Would like to see him make deep run.
* Phil Laak. So entertaining.
* Elky. Too funny.
* Jungleman. Thinking player and funny, too.

If u asked me for one guy I would bet AGAINST...Phil Hellmuth. I really feel like the YOUNGER players have passed him by. I feel like the younger guys have spent time in the lab and taken the game to a higher level. So often, I watch Hellmuth videos and watch him get out-played.

[Jayvegas420]

Lets pick 10 runners each.
100 points last longest. 200 if your runner reaches FT.
500 points if he TID.

If it's not just you and I, we'll do a draft format.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Jay, that's not bad. Could also do 5 H2H matchups. 100 Pts per Matchup - Last Longest.

Would draft in Snake-style. I'd even give u 1st pick (and 4th/5th/8th/9th). I would take 2nd/3rd/6th/7th/10th.

I actually prefer the 5 H2H matchups. Either way, let's cap it at 5 picks.

Also, do u see an Official List of who is entered? Don't want to pick a guy who is skipping out.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

http://www.wsop.com/news/2017/Jul/9229/PLAYER-OF-THE-YEAR-UPDATE-JOHN-RACENER-CLIMBS-TO-TOP-OF-BOARD.html

Jay, what is CFerguson wins POY? Imagine him getting Boo'd when he picks up trophy!

[Jayvegas420]

He's never gonna win. I think it's devilfish.
How do you wanna run the H2H?

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Jay, he's in 2nd place. Devilfish? Now, THAT would be a longshot...since he'd be winning from the Grave!

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dave_Ulliott

[ChuckyTheGoat]

He's never gonna win. I think it's devilfish.
How do you wanna run the H2H?

Jay, I'd like to do it the way I mentioned in Post 287 (above). 5 H2H matchups.

If u agree to that format...u can start off w/ 1st selection.

[Jayvegas420]

Gus Hanson

[ChuckyTheGoat]

OK, Jay. I like it.

My top-pick (#2 overall) = Fedor Holz.

Let's put an asterisk on this event. * Before start, if u hear that Named Player did not Register...you're allowed to select replacement.

Matchup1 = GusHanson (Jay) vs FedorHolz (Chucky)

[ChuckyTheGoat]

My 2nd-pick (#3 overall) = Brian Rast.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

The Bad Beats continue. Everyone LOVES a Bad Beat story, right:

BB #1. Mid-pos raise to 500. I re-raise on Button w/ AA to 1300 (1/4 stack). Original raiser calls.

Dry flop, T62. He goes All-in! I call. He's on a pure-bluff. Not even a gutshot. Q9(o), he's dead to runner-runner. 94/6, and he was betting into me.

Runout is J8. He makes a straight on runner-runner.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Another tough one, 40/80 Blinds.I raise in Mid-pos w/ JJ to 190. Late-caller, and call from SB + BB. 4 to flop. I have 8000 behind.

Flop is J65 w/ two diamonds. Really good, top-set on Wet-board. Some $$ should be going in.

Small Blind bets into me, 350 (about 1/2-pot). BB folds, around to me. I have to Raise this on wet-board. Raise about pot-size to 1050. Late pos folds, back to Small Blind. He goes All-in! I call w/ Top-set.

How often do u hold the Nuts (at moment)? And how often do u have someone massively betting into u?

He is holding A7(Diamonds). Nut-flush draw. Overcard w/ back-door Str8 draw. I'm 73/27 here. 7000 to win 10k (roughly).

That's a +77% expected ROI on last action. Run-out is 3(sp) on Turn and 2(Diam) on River. He makes Flush to win.

[Jayvegas420]

Chuck, have you found a list of entrants?
I don't know about pick replacements as this is a heads up contest.

#4 overall pick Doug Polk

Let's just make sure that all our picks are playing before we pick them!

[Jayvegas420]

#5 Phil Ivey

[Jayvegas420]

Also, is each match up worth 100 points or I'd it who ever wins the most matchups?

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Also, is each match up worth 100 points or I'd it who ever wins the most matchups?

100pts per Matchup. OK, let's make sure they're participating. I sure hope Holz made the trip over.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Pick #6 = Daniel Negreanu

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Pick #7 = Daniel Colman

[ChuckyTheGoat]

OK, Jay. I like it.

My top-pick (#2 overall) = Fedor Holz.

Let's put an asterisk on this event. * Before start, if u hear that Named Player did not Register...you're allowed to select replacement.

Matchup1 = GusHanson (Jay) vs FedorHolz (Chucky)

Some Classic matchups shaping up:

M/up2 = DougPolk vs Brian Rast
M/up3 = PhilIvey vs DanielNegreanu

[Jayvegas420]

It's getting serious Chucky!!!
Gimme an hour!

[Jayvegas420]

I'm gonna take the brat.

[Jayvegas420]

#8 overall pick Phil Helmuth

[ChuckyTheGoat]

#8 overall pick Phil Helmuth

M/up4 = Hellmuth vs DanielColman

L2 picks, Jay. This should be fun.

[Jayvegas420]

I really wanna take one of the smokeshows like Sam Abernathy or Liv Boree......


But somethings telling me to pick a Deeb

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Jay, would be GREAT to see a smoke-show get to Final Table!

Liv, Vanessa Rousso, Xian Lu...

Jennifer Tilly banned from WSOP for cheating. She held a Big Pair b4 every hand started.

[Jayvegas420]

Funny Chucky, I was actually thinking of taking Phil Lakk.

I think I'm gonna take Obst. No wait, Griffin Berger.....

[Jayvegas420]

Fukk it, I saw all four of my picks in the Bellagio poker room last week so, let's make it a full five....


Johnny Chan



GL Chucky!

[ChuckyTheGoat]

OK, pal. Thought about my last pick. He's been playing Events...so he should be in Main Event:

* Ole Schemion.

M/up5 = JohnnyChan vs OleSchemion.

Good luck, pal!

[RudyRuetigger]

If u asked me for one guy I would bet AGAINST...Phil Hellmuth. I really feel like the YOUNGER players have passed him by. I feel like the younger guys have spent time in the lab and taken the game to a higher level. So often, I watch Hellmuth videos and watch him get out-played.

negreanu always gets outplayed

[Optional]

negreanu always gets outplayed

Hand by hand commentary made it sound like he was just card dead final day.

[Jayvegas420]

Opti, I played in the same poker room last week with all five of my picks.
How do you like my chances Opti?