UNC at Duke (Saturday)

[Kindred]

over 154

totals easier to beat than sides..especially in big games. I like unc for the win but not enough to bet, so over it is

[doylfish]

Is that a joke or are you really that naive? UNC has a better RPI and harder SOS in conference than Duke. Please fact check before you post purely an opinion as 'fact.'

Duke also allowing opposing teams to score an avg of 1pt per possssion, not a bad number, but not great. d is not their strong point.

If you compare same conference schedule only Duke scores 0.12 points higher per possession than ACC opponents on avg while UNC is a 0.16. Again, these numbers only compare against same in-conference teams, not including outside ACC so saying SOS has something to do with the numbers is a completely invalid point in this comparison. This also means that UNC is inherently more effective on both ends of the ball when comparing these ACC schedule stats

[BernardMadoff]

Is that a joke or are you really that naive? UNC has a better RPI and harder SOS in conference than Duke. Please fact check before you post purely an opinion as 'fact.'

I only said schedule, which covers all games, Duke has had the tougher schedule.

[jjgold]

NC Real easy

Duke beat them by luck last time

[broadway6]

Heels are fav on the road....line is telling you who to take.

[BernardMadoff]

How so? Same conference, so similar in conference schedule. UNC went to Kentucky. Michigan State on neutral. Wisconsin and Texas at home. Duke played Michigan State neutral, Got raped at Ohio State, Beat Kansas, And played Washington neutral. Even if you rate Dukes better because OSU/Kanas is better than Kentucky/Wisconsin, you really think that made such a huge difference in those stats? Also forgot UNLV for UNC.

Duke's RPI and SOS is better than NC's.

[Owls]

I mean, it is college basketball, Duke has a puncher's chance, just like Kentucky had a puncher's chance against Duke in 1992 in the NCAA tournament. UNC is the far superior team, and match up great against Duke. You take motivation out of the equation because that is never an issue in such an important Rivalry. Home court advantage is the only wild card here, and it is what will keep Duke within reach, but they will need to be real hot from 3 in order to cover.

[doylfish]

All you need to see is right here:

http://kenpom.com/

Adjusted ratings have Duke at 14, and UNC at 6. Duke has better adjusted offense ranked at 5 to UNC 15, but UNC far and away better defensively at 13 to Duke at 60. 60th rating for adjusted D! That is not a number one seed defense whatsoever, probably not even a #2. Duke does have harder SOS comparisons, but also off the charts higher in luck factor at 24th overall compared to 125 for UNC. These adjusted stats are for all 345 Div 1 teams and account for full schedule so even still, UNC is the better team. Facts and stats. Not opinion as I have no horse in this race.

[tarheelfan72]

Home court advantage is meaningless in a place like this, do you know how close these 2 schools are? There will be plenty of UNC fans there. UNC gave that last game away and Rivers hit a lucky 3 to win it. And to do all that they had to hit all those 3's which is not easy to do. UNC will also do a much better job defending 3's this time knowing thats why Duke beat them. Should be a close game but UNC finishes the whole game this time and wins. Spread is -2 but I always take the ML in a case like this, makes no sense to me to take the spread -102 vs. -125, the juice is always worth it when its this close.

This is wrong. This is a damn near impossible ticket. Individual tickets to this game are not even sold to the general public, ever. Basically every one of the 9000 seats in Cameron will have an Iron Duke member with season tickets or a student in it. There will be a sprinkling of UNC fans, as in 200-300, in the entire place, and they will have got their tickets from Iron Dukes they are friends with, or paid $1000+ for it on the aftermarket.

UNC will still win, they win in Cameron a lot in recent years. But the crowd will heavily favor the dookies.

[tarheelfan72]

Technically it is, but not in a statistically significant way. They both play very strong top 10 schedules. It's certainly not the reason UNC is better than Duke in just about every team stat that exists.

ETA: This was supposed to be a response to a comment about dook having a better SOS, somehow the quote did not make it.

[UNCGQ]

This is wrong. This is a damn near impossible ticket. Individual tickets to this game are not even sold to the general public, ever. Basically every one of the 9000 seats in Cameron will have an Iron Duke member with season tickets or a student in it. There will be a sprinkling of UNC fans, as in 200-300, in the entire place, and they will have got their tickets from Iron Dukes they are friends with, or paid $1000+ for it on the aftermarket.

Truth. This isn't like the Browns playing the Bengals.

CIS is 60% smaller than DES, and if you want a ticket, it will certainly cost in excess of $1,000.

There are Duke kids that camp out for these things for months at a time, if you could just buy one and show up, I think rich kids from NJ would be doing that instead.

I put the over/under for people you'll see in the student section with UNC gear on at 2.

In the whole place, 200-300 is about right for what I've seen over the years.

Edited to add:

"Home Court" at CIS is probably less effective against a team like UNC than say, a random team visiting for the first time ever (I'd throw VT, NCSU, FSU in there just for giggles as well) because they've seen and played in the gym repeatedly. It's not like the Cameron is this new, crazy atmosphere.

[Dr Nostron]

I love the look on that old dudes face - lower left corner.

[visualrealism]

Duke will win ! Sweep this year !

[doylfish]

yeah that was close Duke...hahaha...look at that 'great' D giving up 88 points

[beerman2619]

Even the refs couldn't hand Duke the win like they did in Carolina . Carolina fan here of course but give me a break Duke is overrated big time.

[beerman2619]

Duke will win ! Sweep this year !

almost

[ThaTopMoron]

North Carolina is the much better team but I just can't give points at Cameron. PASS

all you needed to know to bet on this game was how the Feb. 8th game ended... CRAZY to pass up on the easy winners!