Federer v. Murray

[ryanXL977]

how did he win ? was it not 2-2 at that point? you are saying he would have won the set bc of that one point? dude, i have lost so many bets bc of bs calls and bad calls, it happens every single day
he lost in 3 sets!

[BuddyBear]

Fellows (c.f. Durito).....look back at some of Ganch's writings and you'll see that he meticulously notes that sporting matches are "naturally chaotic events" that are beyond an individual's control. There is no sense in dwelling over this more than the 1 minute you've already considered it. Had Federer been serving from the other side of the court, it would never have happened or had the linesman been instructed to stand on a different angle the error would not have occured. That's just the way it goes...there is nothing you can do about it and if you want to be mad at anyone, it should be Murray who failed to challenge the call and continued to play knowing full well that the ball was out. But b/c AM had been so unsuccessful with this challenge calls throughout the tournament, he was hesitant to do so and forfeit the point automatically.

In summary, the best you can do is to take the best possible number/line. That's it. And that's really what betting on sports comes down to: placing wagers that have a positive expected value. Don't waste any more time thinking about the bad call.

Good luck guys.

[bettilimbroke999]

Congrats Fed backers odds should've been Murray + infinity, you guys called it right, wonder what the odds should've been when Simon hammered him and Karlovic squashed his ass, the last 3 matches they played this year where Murray beat him 2 of them guess those should've been Fed + infinity

[ryanXL977]

cowboys beat nyg last yr the first 2 times, what does that have to do with the third time

[bettilimbroke999]

I said congrats what more do you want from me, I'm not a sore loser, CUNT FUKIN GRATULATIONSSSSSSS, you picked the guy the linesmen decided to cheat into the winner's circle, if I'd known it was rigged I woulda bet the other way

[ryanXL977]

was the mets phils game rigged last night with the catchers interference followed by the safe call at third on an easy out?
i mean, you seriously think it was rigged? as if fed needed that point to win a match he was up 6-2 in?

[hoopster42]

Congrats Fed backers odds should've been Murray + infinity, you guys called it right, wonder what the odds should've been when Simon hammered him and Karlovic squashed his ass, the last 3 matches they played this year where Murray beat him 2 of them guess those should've been Fed + infinity

ive said it before and i'll say it again...........OTHER THAN THE GRAND SLAMS, NOTHING IN TENNIS MATTERS THAT MUCH!!

Fed lost to canas TWICE in spring 2007, then right after those losses, he went to the french final yet again, won wimbledon, then won the US Open

the 2 wins murray had over fed MEANT NOTHING because they were not for a grand slam championship

the young Brit was wetting his pants and shitting all over himself today,

the moment got to him just like it gets to most everyone who has played fed in a final whose name is not nadal

andy murray could not handle the pressure of beating the greatest player ever on the biggest tennis stage of the fall

next fukkin subject

[BuddyBear]

Murray himself admitted in the post-match interview that he needs a lot of improvement to beat FED at a grandslam.

Incidently, after about a game or two after the blown call, none of the announcers even mentioned it anymore. They knew that even had it been called in, FED would still have won.

[hoopster42]

Murray himself admitted in the post-match interview that he needs a lot of improvement to beat FED at a grandslam.

Incidently, after about a game or two after the blown call, none of the announcers even mentioned it anymore. They knew that even had it been called in, FED would still have won.

murray's exact words were:

"I'm gonna need to improve if I want to win one of these things"

implying that its tough to beat ANYONE in a grand slam final, let alone one of the 2 greatest players to ever pick up a racket (sampras is the other)

[bettilimbroke999]

I feel that Fed outplayed Murray this match and would've won anyway, but I certainly would've like to have seen it, clearly -200 are going to win more often than +200 but rather than just give them a lock on a 1-1 set start I'd rather see the match played out. If Chicago cubs are -300 and you take the Astros at +290 and I take Chicago at -300 and they are tied 2-2 and hit a foul ball that they call a grand slam and I say well Cubs would've beaten the Astros anyway who cares, well yea more times than not they would've but does that justify gettin fuked on a match ending call? Look I'm not being a sore loser I'm just saying that call was on a fukin breakpoint that would've given Murray the 2nd set THERE IS A HUUUUUUUGE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN 1-1 AND 2-0 AGAINST FEDERER, you can bring in the coffin at 2-0 at 1-1 you've got yourself something interesting to watch, anyway it's all good, congrats Fed backers it doesn't matter I'm used to getting terrible calls against me anyway

[hoopster42]

jus watched the post match interview with enberg again. murray's exact words:

enberg asks: "what did you learn from the experience?"

murray: "ummmm, that i've got a lot of improving to do if i want to win one of these tournaments"

i know, i'm fukkin anal but paying attention to details is essential in my career and life

[HeeeHAWWWW]

the 2 wins murray had over fed MEANT NOTHING because they were not for a grand slam championship

That's true of Fed in 07/08, he's been treating masters as practice events recently.

However 2006 was different, his best ever year. Federer won absolutely everything on hard court. Aussie and US Opens, Indian Wells, Miami, Canada, Masters Cup. Also other lesser hard court stuff like Tokyo, Doha, straight sets wins in the Davis Cup, as well as (of course) Halle and Wimbledon.

The only hard court loss of any importance that entire season was to Murray, in straight sets, in the Cincinatti masters (where Fed was reigning champ too). It stopped the clean sweep on hard. I saw the match - he wanted it, none of the tameness of his loss to Karlovic at Cinci this year.

[hoopster42]

he's getting older and the competition is getting better

there are more good hardcourt players in the world than any other surface because hardcourts are the most prominent surface in the world and most suited to just about every player

hardcourt = general court

clay and grass = specialty court

[EaglesPhan36]

So seriously how much did you lose or are you just a poor sport? I'm curious.

[bettilimbroke999]

So seriously how much did you lose or are you just a poor sport? I'm curious.

None of your business and I am a poor sport only when my bets are cheated from me

[EaglesPhan36]

Fair enough I suppose. The fact that you think you got cheated because of one or two calls is entertainment enough for me. If Murray was going to win, one or two calls shouldn't have made a difference. He should have had himself in a better position by serving better in the first set & the 2nd to where these calls you speak of would have meant very little. Anywho.

[fathead]

Thanks for the winner! I don't usually bet tennis but put some on Fed after reading this discussion.

[Dark Horse]

Hey Crazyl...

[single shaker]

Fair enough I suppose. The fact that you think you got cheated because of one or two calls is entertainment enough for me. If Murray was going to win, one or two calls shouldn't have made a difference. He should have had himself in a better position by serving better in the first set & the 2nd to where these calls you speak of would have meant very little. Anywho.

reading betilibroke 1500 posts yesterday was pretty funny, it was like he tried to convince the entire world that murray will win. for a moment it felt like he was working for one of the bookies trying to even out some bets. i thought at least after the beating murray recieved yesterday we wont see him for a while, but look he has another stupid conspiracy theory now he wants everybody to buy into. what a tool!

[SBR Lou]

Hey Crazyl...

Did you come back just to say that...

I did agree with the value there though..

[bettilimbroke999]

reading betilibroke 1500 posts yesterday was pretty funny, it was like he tried to convince the entire world that murray will win. for a moment it felt like he was working for one of the bookies trying to even out some bets. i thought at least after the beating murray recieved yesterday we wont see him for a while, but look he has another stupid conspiracy theory now he wants everybody to buy into. what a tool!

Murray ran Nadal off the court for the previous 2 straight days and has played much better tennis than Fed throughout the year, he played like dogshit this match and still would've split sets had the linesman not cheated him. Keep betting huge chalk in tennis, soup kitchens down the street douchebag

[Dark Horse]

Did you come back just to say that...

I did agree with the value there though..

We discussed this. There's value in the world's best players in grand slams, after they've peaked, because they have to pick their spots, and start accumulating losses in smaller tournaments.

Here's to Federer losing to nobodies in little games.

[single shaker]

Murray ran Nadal off the court for the previous 2 straight days and has played much better tennis than Fed throughout the year, he played like dogshit this match and still would've split sets had the linesman not cheated him. Keep betting huge chalk in tennis, soup kitchens down the street douchebag

dude you are a moron, be a man and just admit you were wrong, there is nothing wrong with being wrong, nobody expects you to pick underdog winners all the time, you sound like a little bitch with all the excuses, take your tampon out and man up for once. wtf!

[bettilimbroke999]

These same guys were loading up on Nadal versus Murray the previous match and getting cremated b/c hey it's Nadal and he's the best player in the world in one of the biggest tourneys in the world, easy money, oh whoops Murray cremated him well that was unlucky but Feds still a lock b/c hey he's the number 2 best player in the world in one of the biggest tourneys in the world.... repeat this logic until wallet is empty, I didn't make a bad pick, the truth of the matter is Murray played his worst match of the tourney AND was cheated on a key breakpoint in the 2nd set which broke his back, if you take the Nats +340 and they lose to the Cubs 10-0 does that mean that the value lay with the Cubs b/c the Nats got dominated of course not, Murray was + huge odds against Nadal and ran him off the court does that mean if I took Nadal +200 I have to explain after the match that I made a bad pick, get a life morons, soup kitchens down the street

[EaglesPhan36]

There were such different circumstances surrounding Murray heading into the Nadal match & Murray heading into the Federer match. Comparing the two is like comparing apples & adult diapers.

[bettilimbroke999]

There were such different circumstances surrounding Murray heading into the Nadal match & Murray heading into the Federer match. Comparing the two is like comparing apples & adult diapers.

Yea, he was playing a better player in that match, he was a bigger underdog and he won, big difference I agree

[bettilimbroke999]

I am done responding to posts in this thread, I'm 11-3 in my last 14 posted picks in the 128 man handicap contest, if you want to fade me and get more barrelled in more power to you

[EaglesPhan36]

LoL. This has been highly entertaining. I don't think anyone really said anything about fading you. Just the fact that you harped on & on about being cheated, etc. If you're 11-3 making picks, take your one loss in a great while & just get over it. See ya in the trenches.

[bettilimbroke999]

Gl2u, this was not about me beating other ppl, I want us all to win, I saw more value in Murray before the match, after that breakpoint was wrongly called in Feds favor and I saw the body language/expression Murray gave when he realized hed been cheated out of the 2nd set I would've bet every cent I had on Federer right then (unfortunately I didn't know the linesmen were paid off before I bet), if that breakpoint is called correctly and he goes on to get the confidence/adrenaline/hope beating Fed in the 2nd set gives a player (which he actually did regardless of what the scoreboard/paid off linesman said) then you see an energized player and this match takes on an entirely different complexion, it becomes just a heads up 3 set match with two even players. I have watched many tennis matches and there is a moment when the momentum can swing in either direction a critical backbreaking call like that to rob Murray of breakpoint is all you need to swing the momentum in Roger's favor and take all the energy out of Murray's sails, from that point on he just played like absolute dogshit, prior to that he had significantly outplayed Fed in the 2nd set regardless of what the hindsight posters in this thread have said.

[HeeeHAWWWW]

Yea, he was playing a better player in that match, ....

On hard courts, Murray is better than Nadal. Did you know Nadal has never beaten a top 15 player at either the Australian or US Opens? He's just been lucky to reach semis because of easy draws against low ranked players, then comes up against a decent player and loses heavily.

On the other hand, Federer is the greatest player in history. There was the question of whether he could play his first top class match of any meaning in the last year. He did.

There was also the key element of serving. As Brad Gilbert said before the match, the better server would win. Murray served rubbish (3 aces vs 21 in the Nadal match), while Federer served brilliantly.

In retrospect, I also question Murray's tactics. He was quite aggressive, as in the Nadal match. However, he beat Federer in the past by playing defensively, frustrating him, lots of low slices, nothing to play off.

[Panic]

Bet, how do you know he was cheated out of the 2nd set? It was not for sure that Murray would have went on to win the set. You are assuming he would have.

[bettilimbroke999]

Bet, how do you know he was cheated out of the 2nd set? It was not for sure that Murray would have went on to win the set. You are assuming he would have.

I'm just going by the scoreboard, no assumption was made, if he won that breakpoint he won the 2nd set period. I'm not even assuming he would've gone on to beat Fed, I am just saying that when that break was taken from him he lost all composure and his entire attitude changed to where he just felt helpless, that would've been back to back breaks of Fed and would've no doubt filled anyone including Murray with tons of confidence, when the point was cheated from him and Fed ended up winning that game coming back from triple break point anyone watching the match could see Murray was exhausted and fuming inside and all the momentum had been cheatingly swung in Fed's favor, from that point on Murray played like dogshit and never threatened again even though he had won 7 service points in a row at that point he simply could do nothing after that. Tennis is more prone to huge swings of momentum than any other sport b/c of the nature of how important a break is, once you break all you need to do is hold serve whilst once you are behind a break you need to break a great player's serve just to have a 50/50 chance of winning the set in a tiebreak, needless to say if the game is cheated from you especially when you were at triple break point and it assumed 90% you've already won the game it is physically and mentally exhausting even more so then if you had actually been legitimately beaten that game, throw in the fact you are playing perhaps the best player in history who you will have to play very well to beat anyway and is up a set on you and you can see how backbreaking that game was to Murray's chances.

[Panic]

I'm just going by the scoreboard, no assumption was made, if he won that breakpoint he won the 2nd set period. I'm not even assuming he would've gone on to beat Fed, I am just saying that when that break was taken from him he lost all composure and his entire attitude changed to where he just felt helpless, that would've been back to back breaks of Fed and would've no doubt filled anyone including Murray with tons of confidence, when the point was cheated from him and Fed ended up winning that game coming back from triple break point anyone watching the match could see Murray was exhausted and fuming inside and all the momentum had been cheatingly swung in Fed's favor, from that point on Murray played like dogshit and never threatened again even though he had won 7 service points in a row at that point he simply could do nothing after that. Tennis is more prone to huge swings of momentum than any other sport b/c of the nature of how important a break is, once you break all you need to do is hold serve whilst once you are behind a break you need to break a great player's serve just to have a 50/50 chance of winning the set in a tiebreak, needless to say if the game is cheated from you especially when you were at triple break point and it assumed 90% you've already won the game it is physically and mentally exhausting even more so then if you had actually been legitimately beaten that game, throw in the fact you are playing perhaps the best player in history who you will have to play very well to beat anyway and is up a set on you and you can see how backbreaking that game was to Murray's chances.

Wrong. Period. If he gets that call, Murray is up 3-2 in the 2nd set. He does NOT have the 2nd set won.

[bettilimbroke999]

Wrong. Period. If he gets that call, Murray is up 3-2 in the 2nd set. He does NOT have the 2nd set won.

We know how the rest of the games progressed in that set, trust me Fed was trying as hard as possible on every game, he wasn't half assing it in the Finals of the US Open, are you saying a much less upset and more composed and confident from just breaking Fed twice back-to-back Murray who wasn't blowing up inside about that call would've played worse, doubtful my friend highly doubtful, if you honestly think that we'll just agree to disagree on the importance of that call

[Panic]

My point is, you keep assuming Murray would have went on to win the 2nd set. And I saw nothing from the tourney that would lead me to believe that. Fed dominated him. There was no gaureentee the Murray wins that 2nd set even if he got the call.