Federer v. Murray

[WestsidePete]

Not sure what your argument here is, he hasn't played his best all year so he should play his best now b/c???

Just for the record the biggest match he had all year was at Wimbledon, that was to preserve his #1 ranking, which he lost to Nadal, so we've already seen what he does in the biggest match of his career.

Murray IS ALREADY a world beater, he is ranked 6th in the world and is the minds of everyone the 4th best player in the world, he has stepped his game up to a different level and when you do that you don't say well I'm just happy to get my ass kicked my Djoker/Nadal/Federer, no you fukin kick their ass and show them what level of game you bring to the table as he kicked Djoker ass in the finals of Cincy (after Djoker had just buried Federer in the SF) and as he kicked Nadals ass yesterday AND today. It is clear you guys are vastly underestimating Murray's game and are overlooking his most recent performances

My arguement is you seem to think murray will just automatically play unreal like it's a given...I'm not saying he's happy to now bendover and let Fed work him...think about it...if you were playing yourself and you reached your first major you wouldn't think about it differently then the guy who's won it 4 times in a row but has had a bad year?? no, wimbledon was not rogers biggest match of the year since he lost....this one now is, being the final of the last major and losing he ranking and being shutout in majors all year...everything...this match defines his year... anyways the discussion is great and still think the playboy threesome has more value....GL tomorrow ....I'm taking Fed....

[bettilimbroke999]

Bottomline, Bet. You're gonna lay the dog here? Just so we have a clear cut line. I'm taking Fed.

Correct, I'm taking the cakewalk for a 100 bucks @ +200

[bettilimbroke999]

My arguement is you seem to think murray will just automatically play unreal like it's a given...I'm not saying he's happy to now bendover and let Fed work him...think about it...if you were playing yourself and you reached your first major you wouldn't think about it differently then the guy who's won it 4 times in a row but has had a bad year?? no, wimbledon was not rogers biggest match of the year since he lost....this one now is, being the final of the last major and losing he ranking and being shutout in majors all year...everything...this match defines his year... anyways the discussion is great and still think the playboy threesome has more value....GL tomorrow ....I'm taking Fed....

Me2 Gl with your Fed play at least one of us will be happy at the end of the match

[bettilimbroke999]

Well I couldn't get the cakewalk at +200 but took him at +190, not enough experts unloading on eternal grand slam winner Federer for some reason

[Kingctb27]

What a break for Federer not having to play Nadal. I am a Fed fan and going to play him in the Finals. Right now, I went to Matchbook, and the price is Fed -206/Murray +190. What is the concensus?

Crazyl, if you're out there, what do you think the line ends at?

How is it a break not having to play Nadal? What has he ever proved on the hardcourts before? Not a fuggin thing bud. Once Fed got through the semi's I knew it would be a breeze.

[Panic]

How is it a break not having to play Nadal? What has he ever proved on the hardcourts before? Not a fuggin thing bud. Once Fed got through the semi's I knew it would be a breeze.

What has Nadal proved at Wimbleton? How did he do this year? Once again, I am a Fed fan, but lets not kid ourselves. Nadal is the next best thing.

[bettilimbroke999]

What has Nadal proved at Wimbleton? How did he do this year? Once again, I am a Fed fan, but lets not kid ourselves. Nadal is the next best thing.

Nadal got torched two straight days by Murray, food for thought

[Panic]

Understandable, but we can sit here and go back and forth on this. Lets just let the match play out.

[punchmaster]

Nadal got torched two straight days by Murray, food for thought

I think your neglecting two key things here.

1- Rafa was very flat and admitedly burnt out from his amazing 2 slam, gold medal, #1 season, not to take away from Murray's brilliance and game plan. Murray is obviously a very talented dude.

2- Federer finally truly played like the Federer of old against Djok, sheer domination in the last set with Djok throwing in the towel. No reason to not think he'll bring that confidence into the final. Fed's a completly different style than Nadal, with the artistry/shot selection to outdue Murray.
Murray will have to play out of his mind to beat Roger.

[EaglesPhan36]

By the by for those at work tomorrow, I thought I heard that Sportsline.com will be streaming the match live. So you should be able to catch it there or thru the US Open site I would think. I know I'll be watching since I am stuck at work while the match is on.

[Wheell]

2 things:

1. A rested Murray on a hard court is about as good as a rested Federer on a hard court. Federer is not as good as he used to be and Murray is better than he's even been. Forget his beatdown of nadal, look at what he did to Del Potro.

2. Murray is tired. Federer wins tomorrow not because he is currently better on hardcourt (I Think murray might be the slightly stronger of the two), but because Murray has played the last two days and isn't quite as fit as Federer.

Still, even with Murray being tired 2-1 is VERY tempting.

[bettilimbroke999]

I took Murray at +190 b/c quite frankly he is playing as good as Federer right now (actually he's playing better than Federer right now), if you want to bet 190/100 on Fed to beat Murray more power to you, gl, but all the value lay with Murray. Many ppl unfamiliar with tennis fail to appreciate that it is a 20 something sport, where early 30s is ready for retirement (think RB in the NFL for comparison), Fed has lost a step and at that level when you lose a step you drop like a rock, that's why so many former #1s simply fall off the face of the earth, they hit 30 and lose just a step on their younger opponents and that's it their career at the top is over, Fed is 28 I believe and his career has this year begun to slide towards his inevitable retirement 3-4 yrs down the road, journeyman pros are beginning to beat him and he can't finish off any of the big tourneys he dominated in years past

[bettilimbroke999]

I think your neglecting two key things here.

1- Rafa was very flat and admitedly burnt out from his amazing 2 slam, gold medal, #1 season, not to take away from Murray's brilliance and game plan. Murray is obviously a very talented dude.

2- Federer finally truly played like the Federer of old against Djok, sheer domination in the last set with Djok throwing in the towel. No reason to not think he'll bring that confidence into the final. Fed's a completly different style than Nadal, with the artistry/shot selection to outdue Murray.
Murray will have to play out of his mind to beat Roger.

Yea I'm sure he was burnt out on trying to win his first US Open ever to help earn him the career slam . If you watched the Murray/Rafa match you saw some of the best tennis of all-time and it wasn't on Nadal's end, Murray seemed to be everywhere and he simply completely outplayed and overwhelmed Rafa in that match. You have to give credit where credit is due and Murray is playing the best tennis in the world right now and is a +190 underdog, not sure how you can take -200 on Federer, but if you do gl hopefully Murray won't play the way he's played for the last 2 months

[jjgold]

I am going with Murray, Fed to mee is still not over powering anymore and the younger Murray should clip him.

[HeeeHAWWWW]

Yes...borderline perfection ....but to be done two matches in a row??

Murray played better against Wawrinka than against Nadal. Now that was perfection - following the Cinci win that proved to me he could win the tournament. The Nadal match was just confirmation (and not a surprise either, on form Murray is a better natural hard court player than Nadal).


There's also the widely ignored factor in tennis betting: the matchup of styles. Youzhny and Blake are very average, but repeatedly beat Nadal because of flat hitting. Djokovic generally beats Nadal on hard court for the same reason. Federer destroys Blake/Youzhny (normally!), but has all sorts of trouble with Nadal.

Now look at the worst matchup for Federer: it's clearly the retriever type of gameplay. Monfils troubled him bigtime at the French Open. Canas keeps beating him. Volandri beat him last year, and he's an awful player. Nadal, obviously. Murray has that game in spades, just ask Gasquet about it. It's why Murray beat Federer in their last two matches, including that 2006 match (Murray just turned 19, vs peak Federer playing the best tennis ever seen). His game simply frustrates Federer, and eventually draws errors. Now consider that Murray is twice the player he was in 2006, whereas Federer is a lot weaker.

Make no mistake, Murray will win a lot of slams over his career. It's been obvious for a while he has the talent - he's fast as hell (especially for a guy who's 6'3), is probably the best returner on the men's tour (maybe Ferrer on form is as good), has just about the best backhand around (particularly the slice and down the line winner, but also now the disguised Safin-like low swiped crosscourt drive), great volleys, huge variety of shots, the best lob in tennis, and an awesome defensive game that can switch to attack when needed (as Nadal found out). Play passive against him and he'll step up and pound the corners. He's too fast to dropshot. Serve/volley and he'll nail you with those awesome returns, and if you get to the net he'll lob you again and again (even did it repeatedly against the nine foot tall Karlovic). Play aggressive and he'll just return everything and wear you out.

There were just a few nasty flaws in the past that needed ironed out: his stamina (completely fixed, he's insanely fit now), his mental strength (fixed, witness beating Nadal in the tiebreak, and coming back to double break in the 4th set), and particularly his serve (20+ aces vs Nadal). With those problem areas gone, big success was inevitable, and once he made the step to winning a masters at Cincinatti (beating Djokovic in successive tournaments) it was clear he was among the favourites here. The only remaining major weakness is the second serve, which is pretty attackable. He's also a little technically dodgy with the off forehand, so slow centre court balls to him tend to be returned a bit predictably - hard to exploit that one though.


With regard to tiredness: it might have been a factor if he'd played a long match yesterday, but they only played a set and a half to complete the match, and there was a rest day between the quarters and semis. It won't be an issue.


Not saying Murray will win, but as above it's 50/50 imo. Federer will win if he plays his best. However we've not seen anything close to that since last Masters Cup, and he's been unable to win when challenged by an in-form opponent, even when it matters most: Wimbledon and the Olympics particularly, but he was also rubbish at the two hard court masters in preparation for the US Open (losing to Karlovic and Simon ffs). Frankly he's been poor most of this tournament too (yes ok against an out of form Djokovic, but poor against Muller and awful against Andreev, lucky not to lose). Murray has played more difficult opponents, yet won more convincingly. Going by form, he's the favourite. Going by experience, he's obviously not.

[BlackJack]

great post heee hawwwww

I thot federer was a lock, but this thread is making me think twice

[tevari]

murray hasn't proven anything to me YET, ended up taking fedex -1.5 sets @ -115

[EaglesPhan36]

I see this going alot like the women's final. One experienced vet & one first timer. First timer will push the vet, but in the end I think the moment will be too big for Murray today. The title IS Federer's season after all the disappointments. It's really a no play for me at this point. Fed is up at -220 and even if I am supremely confident, I don't go that high on single tennis matches. I'd go with Fed in 4 or 5 sets for the better price or just half a unit for the upset based on current prices.

[gordon gekko]

Fed is the easy play here, taking Murray is .

[bettilimbroke999]

Fed is the easy play here, taking Murray is .

Like saying in a coinflip, heads is the easy play at -200, tails is , Fed has been sucking peoples cash all year, today will be no different

[durito]

Yea I'm sure he was burnt out on trying to win his first US Open ever to help earn him the career slam .

Nadal has not won the Australian Open either.

[bettilimbroke999]

Nadal has not won the Australian Open either.

Probably why I said to help him earn the career slam rather than to complete the career slam

[durito]

Makes sense. I hope I win my $100 teaser on Minnesota tonight to help me become a billionaire.

[bettilimbroke999]

Makes sense. I hope I win my $100 teaser on Minnesota tonight to help me become a billionaire.

It would make more sense if you were halfway to a billion and betting a quarter of a billion

[SportsLockPicks]

there is a reason Murray is ranked 6th...it isn't much to say that he can and will beat Fed today...this is the route you take to upping your ranking...Fed is tired, a wide eyed Murray wins in Wimbledon08like dramatic fashion...can't wait to watch...and trust me, I love Fed..but i'll take the dog in this one....

[EaglesPhan36]

I'm just curious how many of you have actually watched this whole tournament? Seems like alot of you base your "knowledge" on seeing one match or two or base on what score you see.

[HeeeHAWWWW]

there is a reason Murray is ranked 6th....

He's essentially 4th, the rankings are just not updated while a tournament is on. This was pretty inevitable after the win in Cinci, unless Davydenko and Ferrer got to the US Open semis (unlikely given their woeful form) and Murray went out early. Ferrer is actually in danger of dropping well out of the top 10, he has a lot of points to defend till the end of the year.

With good performances in the fast indoors courts tournaments coming up (which suit his game more than anywhere else), Murray will likely be closing in on Djokovic for the no3 spot with a good performance at the Australian - Djoko goes to 4500 or so when the rankings update next Monday, and Murray will be up at 3400ish if he wins today, 3100ish if he loses. If they both make the semis at the Aussie Open this time, Murray probably takes the no3 spot (cos that loses Djoko 550pts, where Murray gains +445). He'll have trouble going higher than that though, because both Nadal and Federer do well on clay, Murray doesn't yet.

[bettilimbroke999]

Great post, heehaww, exactly what I've been trying to say, Murray is playing no worse than Djokovic lately and though he is 4th in the world in ranking is closer to overtaking 3rd than dropping to 5th, Fed right now is clearly number 2 you have to give him credit for what he has done in the past 5 years BUT the gap between he and Murray/Djoker is closing fast and he has already been surpassed in ability by Nadal, Murray is raising his game at about the same pace Fed is losing his, the future is Murray's the past is Fed. This is just the nature of tennis, it's kinda sad really that career's are relatively short compared to any other sport except pro football but this is what ppl are learning by watching Fed, the fact is he is not better than Djokovic/Murray right now, can he beat them yes of course, just as they can beat him, does that mean he should be a 2-1 favorite when he plays them, absolutely not. Bet on Murray, the value regardless of whether he wins or loses this match is definitely with the Brit. Besides destroying Djoker in Cincy finals and destroying the best player in the world the last 2 days the main reason the value is with Murray is that Fed is a shell of his former self, anyone observing his mediocre play throughout this year will realize why the days of easy money on Fed are long gone.

[HeeeHAWWWW]

I dunno, can't see Federer dropping off no2 for a good while yet. Even though he's not winning tournaments this year, he's still racking up huge numbers of points by getting to so many finals - and on clay too, he made the Hamburg and Monte Carlo finals, as well as Roland Garros (350+350+700pts there alone). His real drop in performance seems to have come after Wimbledon, especially at the Olympics, Toronto and Cincinatti he was awful, so it'll be early/mid next year before it really starts troubling his ranking.

For all the talk of Federer's downfall, he's still been collecting lots of ranking points. The key difference from a year back is he's still making finals, but now losing them all.

[bettilimbroke999]

I dunno, can't see Federer dropping off no2 for a good while yet. Even though he's not winning tournaments this year, he's still racking up huge numbers of points by getting to so many finals - and on clay too, he made the Hamburg and Monte Carlo finals, as well as Roland Garros (350+350+700pts there alone). His real drop in performance seems to have come after Wimbledon, especially at the Olympics, Toronto and Cincinatti he was awful, so it'll be early/mid next year before it really starts troubling his ranking.

For all the talk of Federer's downfall, he's still been collecting lots of ranking points. The key difference from a year back is he's still making finals, but now losing them all.

It is amazing that Fed has been able to get into the finals of 3/4 grand slams this year given that he gets killed often by no names in every masters event he plays (half-hearted effort?), but as you mentioned he also no longer wins those finals like he used to (except FO where he always got killed by Nadal)

[icemantbi]

I'm with bettilimbroke here. This will be my first tennis bet today, and the reason being I saw Murray beat Nadal, and at 2-1 the value is there. I have tracked tennis in the past, never put money on it, but tracked it, and saw tons of huge faves go down in flames. No offense to anyone, but laying -200 or more on a tennis match is a recipe for disaster. I remember watching the WTA tourney in Montreal this summer, where I witnessed the # 1 get taken out by a 16 year old. I've seen other big faves go down in flames since then. So my play is on Murray for +200 or better.

[icemantbi]

One last thing to add is that if you do feel confident with Federer, at least be smart enough to parlay him with something else, or take the spread to cut down on juice. You'll never come out ahead laying -200 or more.

[bettilimbroke999]

Either way win or lose this looks to be a great match, will be a great lead in to tonight's NFL games

[Boner_18]

Either way win or lose this looks to be a great match, will be a great lead in to tonight's NFL games

Yeah it does. My GF got a ticket and almost had to turn it over to me cause she was gonna get stuck at work. She told her boss she was going to forgo the match to stay at work and he said "are you fukking crazy, get the hell out of here..." I was all ready to head to her office and pick up the tic too... oh well.

[BuddyBear]

I wish someone would just say the obvious, but this is a facsimilie of yesterday's matchup but this time we have men instead of women.

Fed is just a much better player right now, and while I agree that Fed has had a down year (if that's what you want to call it), he's still an infinitely better player than Murray. To say nothing about 1) major experience factor 2) rest for Roger instead of sleep for Murray and 3) desire to win a major after not having one won all year....FED is just moving better right now, and his groundstokes off the baseline look very very good I have to admit. I'd be concerned about the number of UE Fed is making, but outside that, I see Fed in a straight set victory 7-6, 6-3, 6-2. We are talking about probably the greatest tennis player in the history of the game, and I like his chances here against the upstart Murray.

I had FED +300 to win the tournament and will stick with that. Good luck fellows....