Air force plus + 3

[sportfan]

Line was up 4.5 for a moment and drops back to 3.5

[DrStale]

All the way back to 3 (-115) at bookmaker

[No coincidences]

Back to +3.5.

Some whale's trying to nail the middle at 4.

[William Walters]

I wouldn't worry about the move to 4.5 yet. This is the time of gameday when the public dumps money onto whatever looks good. Let it rise. It'll come back down some b4 gametime

My local (w/ website) just dropped to -3.5 -105.

[Djstucky]

i got 113.5-105 at Bovada but they up to 122.5 now

I pulled the trigger...it's now -145 at 5des...this one is cashing...good luck sir!!!

[chopperocker]

my math model has AF 70% SU and 72% ATS in this one. im locked in @ Air Force +3 -105

[Romanov]

my math model has AF 70% SU and 72% ATS in this one. im locked in @ Air Force +3 -105

well you are wrong. no way is vegas off by 30%.

[rm18]

70 SU and 72 ATS

[chopperocker]

well you are wrong. no way is vegas off by 30%.

they set the line where they believe gives them the greater opportunity of equal action. not necessarily where it should be. i thought we were trying to find lines that we believe have an over or undervalue side. i guess just gambling is what i should do?

[Romanov]

they set the line where they believe gives them the greater opportunity of equal action. not necessarily where it should be. i thought we where trying to find lines that we believe have an over or undervalue side. i guess just gambling is what i should do?

you are partially right. think of the line as a market price, in which MOST pieces of information are priced into by bettors around the world. you, a lonely sbr subforum user cannot possibly have any more useful information than that which is already in the line. your model must be so simple or out of balance to get a number as high as 70 for a dog.

getting equal action from sharps = the best guess as to the outcome of an event



edit: I only have an nhl model running right now, but if it EVER spit out a 30% difference, I would go into hibernation. there is a problem there

[cadillac pete]

The market can't settle on a solid number for this game...

[chopperocker]

70 SU and 72 ATS

ill start following you. are you really that good to respond that way?

[Romanov]

i am on airforce +3.5. With bodog leading the dog sides by .5 over all books, I am afraid I am on the square side

[BGS 9.5]

Level of competition is not? Toledo played both tOSU and Boise State, and got totally jobbed against Syracuse. Rockets all the way here.

[chopperocker]

you are partially right. think of the line as a market price, in which MOST pieces of information are priced into by bettors around the world. you, a lonely sbr subforum user cannot possibly have any more useful information than that which is already in the line. your model must be so simple or out of balance to get a number as high as 70 for a dog.

getting equal action from sharps = the best guess as to the outcome of an event



edit: I only have an nhl model running right now, but if it EVER spit out a 30% difference, I would go into hibernation. there is a problem there

sorry i contributed. i thought something more than simple opinions would be interesting.

[NeverBackDown]

[Romanov]

sorry i contributed. i thought something more than simple opinions would be interesting.

no need to apologize, I would just take a look under the hood of your model

[chopperocker]

no need to apologize, I would just take a look under the hood of your model

no offence intended, but overanalyzing leads to mediocrity teddy.

[Romanov]

no offence intended, but overanalyzing leads to mediocrity teddy.

true, but a gutcheck and good intuition will tell you that airforce doesn't win this game 7/10 times

[PAULYPOKER]

[ringemup]

Level of competition is not? Toledo played both tOSU and Boise State, and got totally jobbed against Syracuse. Rockets all the way here.

U were impressed by OSU that early in the year, if toledo played OSU late in the yr they would have gotten swallowed. Boise wiped the floor with this team, where AF put up a damn good fight. To me there is nothing special about toledo i do not think they have enough of an edge to overcome what AF will bring to the field today.

[Deuce]

+3 +105

[Romanov]

If this thing falls to 2.5...

[JamesBrown]

I just hit the AF moneyline for a dime at +145. I capped them winning by 3. BOL

[rockhardfister]

my math model has AF 70% SU and 72% ATS in this one. im locked in @ Air Force +3 -105

So your math model only increases AF chances by 2% with the points? Put the abicus away and just fade Lang.

[rm18]

ill start following you. are you really that good to respond that way?

Well the thing is I'm not saying there has never been a 3 point dog with a 70% chance to win but you say they have a 72% chance to cover, if there cover % is 72 win is way less than 70% and if win is 70% then cover is way more than 72%.

But in this particular game this is a bad matchup for Air Force 95% of teams would struggle to stop Toledo's offense and they get extra time to prepare for the option, some people afraid to bet Toledo because of the Russian mafia but don't think any fix in for this game.

[Jaug]

Offering a special line on AF +3 http://forum.sbrforum.com/players-ta...e-3-105-a.html

[Demonata]

I like airforce +3.5.

[No coincidences]

some people afraid to bet Toledo because of the Russian mafia but don't think any fix in for this game.

When a MAC team is involved, there's always a chance. That league is as crooked as they come.

[gba]

airforce's defense looks like they have never seen a spread offense...if they dont score some points they are gonna get worked.

[TheCentaur]

Air Force looks like a steaming pile

[gba]

The DBS are giving 15 yard cushions...and they let the running back get 8 yards down the field everytime...Come on Jefferson put some points up

[gba]

Toledo is running 5 wide and airforce only drops 3 back...there gonna score everytime.

[gba]

and there goes the ball game

[teaserpleaser]

Danger zone for force they need a td here bad...., looks like bobbys on the wrong side but its still first qtr