Free gambling lesson for new posters!

[durito]

dury, at -145/+125.. the real line is then -135, right?

so why wouldn't you bet it at -132? i am curious to see what Donny has to say to.. but why wouldn't you bet it..

You are assuming that cris/greek have the efficient line?

The implied win % of -145/125 is not 135 it is

57.11%/42.89% So if -145/125 is an efficient market, then yes you have a very small edge at -132. But this goes back to your first question, which of those books is sharper? I'm certainly not just going to guess that it's cris and bet into pinnacle.

The implied win % of -132/124 is:
56.04%/43.96%

[rm18]

dury, at -145/+125.. the real line is then -135, right?

so why wouldn't you bet it at -132? i am curious to see what Donny has to say to.. but why wouldn't you bet it..

im not sure how to calculate it exactly but when the lines are like that real line is closer to the + number, real line is estimated by me at -133 or -132.

If a line is like +300/-400 I think the real line is around -330 or so

[Ganchrow]

im not sure how to calculate it exactly but when the lines are like that real line is closer to the + number, real line is estimated by me at -133 or -132.

Right on target. The number'd be about -133.16 were we to assume the Oly/CRIS -145/+125 line unbiased.

See http://forum.sbrforum.com/handicappe...ical-hold.html.

[cobra_king]

He is beating the consensus market number at closing by line shopping close to closing.

I know he's doing that which is good, but he's stated before that he wants to bet into the closing lines because they are sharper, and does not want to try and beat the openers.

[Nicky Santoro]

I know he's doing that which is good, but he's stated before that he wants to bet into the closing lines because they are sharper, and does not want to try and beat the openers.

coby, i do a bit of both.. i bet overnights quite a bit before the lines move agressively.. and i also bet last minute too on games i didn't have an opinion on..

[LT Profits]

Like I have said 100 times, preseason NFL is MUCH easier to beat than regular season NFL. You just have to know what you are doing. They are actually like two different sports, as the handicapping methodoligy is totally different for both of them.

[LT Profits]

5Dimes has nothing but 20 and 30 cent lines except for their razor sharp lines on near coinflip games which are 10 cent lines but wouldn't matter anyway cause no way of telling which of two dead even teams is going to win that day.

This is totally false. You should get your facts straight before posting bullshit like this.

[cobra_king]

First time i've seen you admit to betting earlier than game time Nicky.......good on you!

LT, wow..........never seen you that hot under the collar before!

[LT Profits]

LOL

[durito]

I've never seen anyone refer to anything at 5dimes as razor sharp before that's for sure.

[LT Profits]

durito and I don't disagree often, but I am a big fan of 5 Dimes for USA customers.

[The HG]

without the posters SBRJohn and Dozer would be enjoyin cockmeat sandwiches at 5 bucks a pop.

I hear you, oh man last week I was hanging with John and Dozer, they were having $100 cockmeat sandwiches for lunch. Can you believe that sh*t?? $100 for a cockmeat sandwich?? But they gave me a taste, oh man, oh man, it was one of the best things I've ever eaten. I was like "This is cockmeat??" They were like yeah. I was like "You eat like this every day?" They were like yeah. I'm sure they are thankful for the posters, don't worry.

[bettilimbroke999]

This is totally false. You should get your facts straight before posting bullshit like this.

I've played there LT, what am I fukin drunk when I look at the MLs

[bettilimbroke999]

I hear you, oh man last week I was hanging with John and Dozer, they were having $100 cockmeat sandwiches for lunch. Can you believe that sh*t?? $100 for a cockmeat sandwich?? But they gave me a taste, oh man, oh man, it was one of the best things I've ever eaten. I was like "This is cockmeat??" They were like yeah. I was like "You eat like this every day?" They were like yeah. I'm sure they are thankful for the posters, don't worry.

Too much information

[durito]

durito and I don't disagree often, but I am a big fan of 5 Dimes for USA customers.

Hey I'm a big fan of it too. But, my limits are $50 for everything worthwhile.

[flyingillini]

You should only bet MLB and preseason football if you are insane. You will have go to the psychologist and have him certify you as crazy if you think you can lay -110 on MLB and win in the long run, then use your disability check to win. I have found this is the secret to winning at MLB, you are playing on a govt. freeplay. If you are sane and realize that you are spending money everytime you bet on MLB/preseason in the same way your spending money if you buy a scratchoff lotto ticket then good luck to you, perhaps an act of god will occur and you win. Also do not play at 5Dimes if you bet MLB/preseason football b/c your money will be gone long before you have "earned" the chance to win a freeplay bet which is a fukin joke, also 5Dimes has nothing but 20 and 30 cent lines except for their razor sharp lines on near coinflip games which are 10 cent lines but wouldn't matter anyway cause no way of telling which of two dead even teams is going to win that day. BOL to you and welcome to SBR forum.

I like this post and it is something that every poster should see. Very good post!

[durito]

I like this post and it is something that every poster should see. Very good post!

Shocking.

[LT Profits]

I like this post and it is something that every poster should see. Very good post!

Even though preseason NFL is probably the easiest sport to beat?

[flyingillini]

Shocking.

What's your problem?

[durito]

What's your problem?

I'm ignorant, remember?

[donjuan]

Illini,

The problem is that it's patently wrong.

[bettilimbroke999]

Illini,

The problem is that it's patently wrong.

I sure have 99% of the posters (basically everyone but you and durito) agreeing with my assessment of MLB and durito doesn't even bet MLB so what the hell would he know. But gl to you anyway donjuan whatever secret MLB master handicapping secrets you have must not be privy to anyone but you.

[durito]

I sure have 99% of the posters (basically everyone but you and durito) agreeing with my assessment of MLB and durito doesn't even bet MLB so what the hell would he know. But gl to you anyway donjuan whatever secret MLB master handicapping secrets you have must not be privy to anyone but you.

What? Where are these 99% posters?

And, yes 99% of the posters here cannot win betting on anything. That doesn't single out MLB.

There are no secrets. It's called hard work, I cannot give you the gift of that.

But, if you are betting baseball based on era, I'd read here first:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sabermetrics

http://tangotiger.net/#Baseruns

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/

[donjuan]

Haven't we established that 99+% of posters here are tards?

[bettilimbroke999]

Not sure how insults are necessary, but I see my own and others are much more interested and optimistic about football season and NCAAB than NBA/MLB season, no doubt others results have been similar to mine of losing cash in NBA/MLB and pickin it up in football/NCAAB. Many of the posters on here have been bangin away at sports gambling for years if we were truly retarded as donjuan puts it we'd all be barrelled in years ago. I am simply assessing which sports are easier to predict for the normal bettor and in most opinion it's NCAAF and NCAAB and also imo NFL 1st Half totals provide great opportunity.

[HedgeHog]

Like I have said 100 times, preseason NFL is MUCH easier to beat than regular season NFL. You just have to know what you are doing. They are actually like two different sports, as the handicapping methodoligy is totally different for both of them.

Especially with Wong teasers. With low scoring games, an extra 6 points is huge in preseason!

[jjgold]

Pre Season football is actually easier than the regular season because of player rotations but you need to mainly bet 1st halves and if you take the fukllk game you need tot ake dogs at lower juice.

[bettilimbroke999]

Especially with Wong teasers. With low scoring games, an extra 6 points is huge in preseason!

Okay I agree with that preseason NFL does provide some of the best teaser opportunites and perhaps other opportunities related to the general lack of offense, consider my post directed more towards NBA/MLB than preseason NFL.

[donjuan]

Not sure how insults are necessary, but I see my own and others are much more interested and optimistic about football season and NCAAB than NBA/MLB season, no doubt others results have been similar to mine of losing cash in NBA/MLB and pickin it up in football/NCAAB.

Once again, a -EV bettor is more likely to experience success in football than in baseball due to a lack of adequate sample size in football.

[bettilimbroke999]

Every year? Strange statistic that if you are -EV you will win every year at one sport and win every year at another, I think there's a lil more to it than that but anyway. I am sure my handicapping of football is much better than baseball/NBA and that those games are subject to much greater degree of inconsistency than football, expect Patriots to win 0 or 1 game this year, last year, year before that etc. (games they are trying to win not games they play with subs after locking up postseason appearance), expect best baseball team to win less than 2 out of 3

[donjuan]

Every year? Strange statistic that if you are -EV you will win every year at one sport

How many games are you betting per year and for how many years?

P.S. How much can I get down on Patriots under 14.5?

[durito]

Not sure how insults are necessary, but I see my own and others are much more interested and optimistic about football season and NCAAB than NBA/MLB season, no doubt others results have been similar to mine of losing cash in NBA/MLB and pickin it up in football/NCAAB. Many of the posters on here have been bangin away at sports gambling for years if we were truly retarded as donjuan puts it we'd all be barrelled in years ago. I am simply assessing which sports are easier to predict for the normal bettor and in most opinion it's NCAAF and NCAAB and also imo NFL 1st Half totals provide great opportunity.

People think football is easier because of small sample sizes and selective memory.

Ask the sportsbooks what sport is most profitable for them. It's NFL football.

[bettilimbroke999]

How many games are you betting per year and for how many years?

P.S. How much can I get down on Patriots under 14.5?

Patriots lose either 1 or 2 regular season games they are trying to win per year, once they have locked up their division they lose every game with subs

[durito]

Patriots lose either 1 or 2 regular season games they are trying to win per year, once they have locked up their division they lose every game with subs

Every year?

What about 2006 when they started 6-3.
How about 2005 when they started 4-4.

[MonkeyF0cker]

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