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[bettilimbroke999]

Well anyway listen, I did my best to educate, the old timers are clearly not going to listen to reason, they see a Chris Moneymaker or Jamie Gold win the WSOP and naturally assume they are watching the best poker player in the world who won based purely on skill and that's fine, they are nuts but that's fine. The same applies to MLB handicapping winners, granted both durito and donjuan may be leading towards scalping line movements based on MLB modeling but that is entirely different to me than handicapping games, either way I think very few posters go through the trouble of waking up at the crack of dawn to get a line at 100 instead of -105 in order to scalp the couple cents at close but maybe I'm wrong. This post was intended for the normal poster anyway that doesn't incorporate mathematical models or spend 10 hours a day analyzing numbers in order to nail the opening line and be ahead of a slight movement to the close.

[donjuan]

Well anyway listen, I did my best to educate, the old timers are clearly not going to listen to reason, they see a Chris Moneymaker or Jamie Gold win the WSOP and naturally assume they are watching the best poker player in the world who won based purely on skill and that's fine, they are nuts but that's fine.

Reread my post. Tournaments have a high level of luck due to quick blind structures. Moreover, single tournament wins can also be luck. But over time, you'll see who is and who isn't a winner. Cash games are way better for making money than tournaments anyway.

The same applies to MLB handicapping winners, granted both durito and donjuan may be leading towards scalping line movements based on MLB modeling but that is entirely different to me than handicapping games, either way I think very few posters go through the trouble of waking up at the crack of dawn to get a line at 100 instead of -105 in order to scalp the couple cents at close but maybe I'm wrong.

My guess is you don't have the first clue about what handicapping baseball means. Hint: it doesn't involve saying ZOMG Peavy at plus money!!!!!

This post was intended for the normal poster anyway that doesn't incorporate mathematical models or spend 10 hours a day analyzing numbers in order to nail the opening line and be ahead of a slight movement to the close.

The "normal" poster here is a -EV bettor.

[durito]

No one's talking about scalping lines here.

I agree very few posters go through what's necessary to win. However, this applies just as much to football as it does baseball. As far as NFLX, well this takes perhaps the least amount of time of anything. Back to the original post, if you are allowed to play teasers at 5dimes, NFLX is a ****ing gold mine.

[bettilimbroke999]

Alright well anyway if I have no clue how to handicap baseball and you're not going to give me an idea how to do it effectively than it doesn't matter, I believe in sharing information and opinions but all I get is insults when what I need is insight, if you have something of value to offer then do so, if you are just going to say you make a fortune at it but offer no reason how or why then why even bother. For me right now and for any normal poster I would say MLB is probably the worst sport you could possibly bet on and no one has provided information on how to improve my capping of it so I leave it at that, either give us an idea how the pros go about capping games successfully or I will just assume you haven't an idea what you're talkin about and that you're on a hot run in MLB and feel you know it all as a result.

[bettilimbroke999]

No one's talking about scalping lines here.

I agree very few posters go through what's necessary to win. However, this applies just as much to football as it does baseball. As far as NFLX, well this takes perhaps the least amount of time of anything. Back to the original post, if you are allowed to play teasers at 5dimes, NFLX is a ****ing gold mine.

NCAAF/NFL 1st halves are free money for me each of last 3 years, MLB is a losing venture each of the last 3 years for me, that is what I'm getting at, too much luck and inconsistency affects baseball games which is not present in football games so why risk your money with less of a chance to predict a winner.

[durito]

There is an extreme amount of luck in a football game.

Turnovers are the most important factor in the result of a game ATS. Turnovers are the least predictable stat (ie there is almost no correlation between past fumbles and future fumbles, and low correlation with interceptions).

If you've had better luck with football, great, but that's a personal experience and you should pass it off as such rather than fact.

[bettilimbroke999]

Turnovers are important, this is not an exact science, I didn't win every game over the last 3 seasons, but I certainly came out ahead on combined NCAAF/NFL each and every season I've played it, to me that indicates it's much easier to win at, a 3 year test with 100% expectation of winning vs a 3 year test in MLB with a 100% of losing, but you're right these are just my personal opinions, that goes without saying that some others clearly feel differently though they have offered no information as to what they do differently that is so advanced it allows them to consistently win at MLB, please enlighten me.

[donjuan]

Alright well anyway if I have no clue how to handicap baseball and you're not going to give me an idea how to do it effectively than it doesn't matter, I believe in sharing information and opinions but all I get is insults when what I need is insight, if you have something of value to offer then do so, if you are just going to say you make a fortune at it but offer no reason how or why then why even bother.

There is a thread in the Think Tank suggesting good books for both baseball and sports betting in general. Use the search function. I'll point you in the right direction but I'm not going to hold your hand.

[donjuan]

Turnovers are important, this is not an exact science, I didn't win every game over the last 3 seasons, but I certainly came out ahead on combined NCAAF/NFL each and every season I've played it, to me that indicates it's much easier to win at, a 3 year test with 100% expectation of winning vs a 3 year test in MLB with a 100% of losing, but you're right these are just my personal opinions, that goes without saying that some others clearly feel differently though they have offered no information as to what they do differently that is so advanced it allows them to consistently win at MLB, please enlighten me.

1. You're going to have a smaller sample size for each year of NFL than for MLB.
2. There is no 100% expectancy.

[bettilimbroke999]

I will check out this "think tank" and see what info it's got in there to help me improve, perhaps I've judged early but I really feel like any given baseball game is extremely tough to predict versus NFL/NCAAF. I understand that stats or whatever don't calculate a true mathematic 100% expectancy, I'm talkin about my psychological expectation, I expect every football season I bet to win money and every MLB season I bet to lose money, but I will check out think tank and try to find whatever I'm missing in my capping, it's just been amazing lately the lower the ERA the more runs they give up, took Garza against the Mariners and his 2.9 ERA gives up 5 through the first 2 innings against the god awful Mariners, whole game riding on whether it goes to the warning track for end the inning or 10 more feet for a 3 run lead, just seems very hard to predict when the margin for error is that minute, but we'll see maybe one of the SBR guys could design handicapping software to let a computer calculate the best moves to make, idk

[cobra_king]

Always Beat The Closing Number, And I Guarantee You, You Will End Up With The Money.

Nicky, i agree with you that beating the closing number consistently is critical. You have stated this on more than a few occasions in the last few days. However, you have also said that you make all your bets right before game time. How can you possibly beat the closing number if you are BETTING the closing number? Don't mean to bust your balls, but how do you explain this inconsistency.

[donjuan]

Nicky, i agree with you that beating the closing number consistently is critical. You have stated this on more than a few occasions in the last few days. However, you have also said that you make all your bets right before game time. How can you possibly beat the closing number if you are BETTING the closing number? Don't mean to bust your balls, but how do you explain this inconsistency.

He is beating the consensus market number at closing by line shopping close to closing.

[rm18]

NFL Preseason is one of the easiest things to bet if you have knowledge of player personnel

[durito]

it's just been amazing lately the lower the ERA the more runs they give up, took Garza against the Mariners and his 2.9 ERA gives up 5 through the first 2 innings against the god awful Mariners, whole game riding on whether it goes to the warning track for end the inning or 10 more feet for a 3 run lead, just seems very hard to predict when the margin for error is that minute, but we'll see maybe one of the SBR guys could design handicapping software to let a computer calculate the best moves to make, idk

like I said, I don't handicap baseball, but I can tell you that you need to realize that stats like ERA are not particularly useful.

hole game riding on whether it goes to the warning track for end the inning or 10 more feet for a 3 run lead, just seems very hard to predict when the margin for error is that minute,

Please read the post I quoted from ganchrow.

but we'll see maybe one of the SBR guys could design handicapping software to let a computer calculate the best moves to make, idk

People are doing this. They will not be sharing.

[Nicky Santoro]

Nicky, i agree with you that beating the closing number consistently is critical. You have stated this on more than a few occasions in the last few days. However, you have also said that you make all your bets right before game time. How can you possibly beat the closing number if you are BETTING the closing number? Don't mean to bust your balls, but how do you explain this inconsistency.

coby,

when OLY and CRIS have a game at -120/even, and i see matchy at game time drop their # to -102, i am all over it.. coby, the most accurate lines by far, are the closing #'s..

[durito]

Matchbook's lines are very sharp.

[Nicky Santoro]

Matchbook's lines are very sharp.

dury,

let me ask you a question.. if OLY and CRIS have -180/+160... and pinny has -164 and matchy has -163... who do you think has the sharper #... CRIS/OLY.. .OR pinny/matchy.

i see this everyday, and i'd like your opinioin..

[bettilimbroke999]

Why don't the guys at SBR just design software where the information can be entered and a computer tell ya what the best best is?

People are doing this. They will not be sharing.

Well if SBR isn't going to share information/design simple software to help us degens out and the best MLB handicapper's that post on here are just going to give insults and no information on how to get an edge at MLB then why the fuk even bet MLB, like you said yourself you don't bet MLB so you must be under the same impression I am that it's much more difficult to cap than football.

[durito]

Who says I "cap" football?

NFL lines are the sharpest out there. If you don't have a very good model and are beating openers, you are not going to win in the long term.

I'm sorry that no one is going to give away their models that they've worked thousands of hours on. Surely you aren't going to donate your next paycheck to the posters of sbr either.

[bettilimbroke999]

Well what the hell do you bet, badminton?

[bettilimbroke999]

Who says I "cap" football?

NFL lines are the sharpest out there. If you don't have a very good model and are beating openers, you are not going to win in the long term.

I'm sorry that no one is going to give away their models that they've worked thousands of hours on. Surely you aren't going to donate your next paycheck to the posters of sbr either.

We are their paycheck, we provide free content to a site which keeps them in business, without the posters SBRJohn and Dozer would be enjoyin cockmeat sandwiches at 5 bucks a pop. They design software for us SBR degens all the time, why would now be any different, that's their job durito they don't post for entertainment like we do, the books fill their pockets b/c they want SBR posters to deposit into them, it's called advertising dollars , so they are not working on this site out of the kindness of their heart as you suggest they do it to earn a living. Of course maybe books wouldnt support a site that had software to turn the squares into sharps, maybe that's why there's nothing on the horizon but empty wallets for MLB bettors

[durito]

Well what the hell do you bet, badminton?

1) There is a difference between "capping" something and betting it.

2) Yes, I play a wide variety of small markets, WNBA, CFL, Arena, South American Soccer, NHL.

[durito]

We are their paycheck, we provide free content to a site which keeps them in business, without the posters SBRJohn and Dozer would be enjoyin cockmeat sandwiches at 5 bucks a pop

I'm not really sure what you are looking for here. SBR is in business because of advertising. Sportsbooks wouldn't advertise here if most of the posters didn't lose. Professionals like ganch and justin aren't going to give away hugely valuable models that they've worked on so some random sbr posters can make some money. The market would eliminate their usefulness rather quickly once made public anyway.

[Nicky Santoro]

dury,

answer my question man.. i want your opinion on this.. stop avoiding me..

if CRIS and OLY have -120/even.. and Pinny and Matchy have -104... which is the shaper line? do you bet the -104, which is really a great line, if you are looking at CRIS and OLY only.. OR do you take dog, OR do you leave it alone..

this happens everyday and i want your opinion here.. what do you do in this situation. .matchy has sharp lines, but CRIS and OLY do too..

[bettilimbroke999]

Handicapping involves analyzing the stats to make a correct bet, I'm not sure what you mean by difference between capping and betting, please explain?

[bettilimbroke999]

I'm not really sure what you are looking for here. SBR is in business because of advertising. Sportsbooks wouldn't advertise here if most of the posters didn't lose. Professionals like ganch and justin aren't going to give away hugely valuable models that they've worked on so some random sbr posters can make some money. The market would eliminate their usefulness rather quickly once made public anyway.

I guess so, not even sure why we even talk about MLB, supposedly it's easy to win money at but no one knows or is willing to share information on how to do it, so let's just leave it at that.

[durito]

dury,

answer my question man.. i want your opinion on this.. stop avoiding me..

if CRIS and OLY have -120/even.. and Pinny and Matchy have -104... which is the shaper line? do you bet the -104, which is really a great line, if you are looking at CRIS and OLY only.. OR do you take dog, OR do you leave it alone..

this happens everyday and i want your opinion here.. what do you do in this situation. .matchy has sharp lines, but CRIS and OLY do too..

Sorry nicky I missed your post when we went to the 2nd page.

I don't know who is sharper, I would assume in MLB it's pinnacle/matchbook but cris/greek don't give money away either so I don't know. I wouldn't bet any of them. If BetEd for example was at -115/105 and the rest of the market -110/-110 or -104/-104 I'll take the 105.

[Nicky Santoro]

thank dury, so one last question..

if CRIS and OLY are painted -145/+125... and matchy and pinny both have it at -132.. do you bet the -132? or do you not bet it?

[donjuan]

If BetEd for example was at -120/even and the rest of the market -110/-110 or -104/-104 I'll take the even.

Why? If you're going on that alone, the market is implying that that is an EV neutral, -EG bet.

[durito]

I guess so, not even sure why we even talk about MLB, supposedly it's easy to win money at but no one knows or is willing to share information on how to do it, so let's just leave it at that.

1) I've started to point you in the right direction.

2) It's no different than any other sport, so I don't know why you are treating it as such. No one here is giving away profitable football models either.

If you want to be profitable in the long run betting professional football, baseball, or basketball, you will need a solid background in basic math (algebra), a solid understanding of statistics, an understanding of markets (how gambling markets work), access to a database with statistics (preferably automated), access to timely injury info, understanding of money management and risk management (kelly), and the desire to work extremely hard and always be willing to learn and adapt.

If you aren't able or willing to do these things, you should 1) stick to much smaller markets that take less work to beat (though the same skills apply) 2) line shop and only bet lines that are consistently off the market.

[durito]

Why? If you're going on that alone, the market is implying that that is an EV neutral, -EG bet.

because i'm not paying attention

[Nicky Santoro]

you're right donny.. even is a no advantage bet.. dury should have known that.
donny, i want you too to answer my question.. do you bet the -132..

[durito]

thank dury, so one last question..

if CRIS and OLY are painted -145/+125... and matchy and pinny both have it at -132.. do you bet the -132? or do you not bet it?

-132/124 v -145/125

Unless i have some other reason to be betting (and as I said in baseball I don't) I see no reason to bet these lines.

[Nicky Santoro]

-132/124 v -145/125

Unless i have some other reason to be betting (and as I said in baseball I don't) I see no reason to bet these lines.

dury, at -145/+125.. the real line is then -135, right?

so why wouldn't you bet it at -132? i am curious to see what Donny has to say to.. but why wouldn't you bet it..

[donjuan]

Given no other information, I would not bet it. Pinnacle has tougher lines for MLB than CRIS or Oly and the edge on that bet even if CRIS was perfectly efficient is miniscule. And the fair value on -145/+125 is ~±133, not ±135.